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題名 An Analysis of the Trend and Cyclical Behaviours of House Prices in the Asian Markets
作者 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi;Yuichiro Kawaguchi;Kanak Patel
貢獻者 財管系
關鍵詞 Property;Prices;Structural systems;Time series analysis;Asian studies
日期 2004
上傳時間 19-Nov-2014 15:52:44 (UTC+8)
摘要 This paper examines the time‐series behaviour of house prices for the four Asian markets, namely, Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo and Taipei, by using structural time‐series methodology. The paper assumes two types of trend models to characterise and compare the long‐run movement of house prices. It also examines the cyclical pattern hidden in the series. The long‐run trend rate in these markets ranged between approximately 1.6 and 3.2 per cent per annum. Hong Kong, Singapore and Taipei have relatively higher figures, which could be expected in light of the rapidly growing economies. Surprisingly, their cyclical patterns were fairly similar, although causes of the cycles differed. The markets were found to have stochastic cycles of around one year, two to four years and seven to ten years, which were consistent with previous findings on real business cycles commonly observed internationally in other macroeconomic time series. However, the found stochastic nature suggests all these markets are not in a steady state and is still changing.
關聯 Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 22(1), 55-75
資料類型 article
dc.contributor 財管系en_US
dc.creator (作者) 陳明吉zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Ming-Chi;Yuichiro Kawaguchi;Kanak Patelen_US
dc.date (日期) 2004en_US
dc.date.accessioned 19-Nov-2014 15:52:44 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 19-Nov-2014 15:52:44 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 19-Nov-2014 15:52:44 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/71556-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper examines the time‐series behaviour of house prices for the four Asian markets, namely, Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo and Taipei, by using structural time‐series methodology. The paper assumes two types of trend models to characterise and compare the long‐run movement of house prices. It also examines the cyclical pattern hidden in the series. The long‐run trend rate in these markets ranged between approximately 1.6 and 3.2 per cent per annum. Hong Kong, Singapore and Taipei have relatively higher figures, which could be expected in light of the rapidly growing economies. Surprisingly, their cyclical patterns were fairly similar, although causes of the cycles differed. The markets were found to have stochastic cycles of around one year, two to four years and seven to ten years, which were consistent with previous findings on real business cycles commonly observed internationally in other macroeconomic time series. However, the found stochastic nature suggests all these markets are not in a steady state and is still changing.en_US
dc.format.extent 495068 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.relation (關聯) Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 22(1), 55-75en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Property;Prices;Structural systems;Time series analysis;Asian studiesen_US
dc.title (題名) An Analysis of the Trend and Cyclical Behaviours of House Prices in the Asian Marketsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) articleen