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題名 台灣地區國民中小學班級規模規劃與師資需求預測：灰預測方法之應用 作者 吳政達;黃智煒
Wu, Cheng-Ta貢獻者 教育系 關鍵詞 班級規模 ; 灰預測
class size ; grey prediction日期 2000 上傳時間 26-Mar-2015 17:58:03 (UTC+8) 摘要 自民國八十年起，小班教學的觀念就逐漸被教政團體所重視，教育部出版的「中華民國教育報告書」與「教育改革行動方案」中也將國中小每班的學生人數降至三十五人列為主要政策目標，然而班級規模以及師資的需求，卻需考慮多方因素，才能有正確的統計數字供作政策推行之參考。本文研究的主要目的即針對改善傳統預測方法對所需數據個數過多的要求限制，採取灰預測技術僅需四個數據即可加以建模預測，藉以分析因為班級規模人數降低所衍生的師資供需問題。研究結果發現：（一）國小部分若以目前法令規定編制1.5人為基準，事實上在八十學年度（當年度平均每班教師數為1.51人）就已經達到該標準。因此，若考慮九年一貫國民教育應維持相同的員額編制，即與國中教師員額編制每班平均2人的標準下，八十九學年度應有7631位新進教師增聘的空間。惟因學齡人口數降低之故，九十學年度則開始呈現教師增聘人數負成長。（二）國中部分若以目前法令規定國中教師員額編制每班平均2人的標準下，八十九學年度應有3227位、九十學年度有1006位、九十一學年度有1861位新進教師增聘的空間，合計未來三年共有6094位國中教師之人力需求。（三）八十九學年度國小教師需求扣除九所師院平均每年增加國小教師數量5812人後，尚餘1819人，其前提還是在員額編制調整為每班平均2人。換言之，教育部在九十學年度起國小教師員額編制應有充分的條件可以修改法令調整與國中員額編制相同。且自九十學年度起，國小教師便會產生供過於求的現象。（四）八十八學年度培育中等學校師資為主的台灣師範大學、高雄師範大學以及彰化師範大學等三所大學在學學生人數共有18145人。該數值街不包括政治大學教育系及其他設有中等教育教育學程的大學校院所培育的師資，就已經遠超過未來三年所需新聘的國中師資人數。（五）我國未來三年的國中、國小師資供需將產生供過於求的現象，因此對於降低班級規模為平均每班35人之政策目標，在教師人數部分是有充分的條件來配合該政策的推行。
Since 1991, the importance of small class has been constantly emphasized by education reform groups. The main policy in "The Education Report of Republic China" and "The Practice Program of Education Reform", published by Ministry of Education, is to lower the elementary and junior high school student number by 35 per class. However, to carry out class size requires consideration for various factors such as class size and the demand for qualified teachers to make correct statistics for reference. The primary goal of this research is to improve the limit of traditional forecasting methods by using grey prediction skill that required just four datum to analyze the teacher supply and demand problem resulted from the reduce of "class size" number. The results are as follows: 1. As for elementary schools, the teacher number should be 1.5 per class according to the present law. Therefore, if the notion is maintained the same with the consideration of nine year compulsory education, there should be 7631 more teachers to be employed in 2000. However, due to the decrease of population of school age, the number of teacher newly employed has showed the phenomenon of negative growth since 2001. 2. As for junior high schools, under the notion of 2 teachers per class, there should be 3227 ones newly employed in 2000, 1006 ones in 2001 and 1861 ones in 2002 school year. There are totally 6094 junior high school teacher demands in three years. 3. After the demand number of elementary school teachers in 2000 subtracted from the provided 5812 teachers per year by nine normal colleges, there just be 1819 ones left with the premise that the personnel is increased to 2 per class. Therefore, since 2001, the supply of elementary school teachers will exceed the demand. 4. There are 18145 students in the primary three Normal Universities in Taiwan without Including ones in the department of Education in ChengChi University as well as other colleges and universities with secondary school education courses. The number of junior high school teacher supply has already far exceeded the demand in future three years. 5. We are facing the problem of the excessive supply of compulsory education teachers; thus, to carry out the policy of constricting class size has already supported by the aspect of teacher number.關聯 教育政策論壇, 3(2), 128-172 資料類型 article dc.contributor 教育系 dc.creator (作者) 吳政達;黃智煒 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wu, Cheng-Ta dc.date (日期) 2000 dc.date.accessioned 26-Mar-2015 17:58:03 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 26-Mar-2015 17:58:03 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 26-Mar-2015 17:58:03 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/74129 - dc.description.abstract (摘要) 自民國八十年起，小班教學的觀念就逐漸被教政團體所重視，教育部出版的「中華民國教育報告書」與「教育改革行動方案」中也將國中小每班的學生人數降至三十五人列為主要政策目標，然而班級規模以及師資的需求，卻需考慮多方因素，才能有正確的統計數字供作政策推行之參考。本文研究的主要目的即針對改善傳統預測方法對所需數據個數過多的要求限制，採取灰預測技術僅需四個數據即可加以建模預測，藉以分析因為班級規模人數降低所衍生的師資供需問題。研究結果發現：（一）國小部分若以目前法令規定編制1.5人為基準，事實上在八十學年度（當年度平均每班教師數為1.51人）就已經達到該標準。因此，若考慮九年一貫國民教育應維持相同的員額編制，即與國中教師員額編制每班平均2人的標準下，八十九學年度應有7631位新進教師增聘的空間。惟因學齡人口數降低之故，九十學年度則開始呈現教師增聘人數負成長。（二）國中部分若以目前法令規定國中教師員額編制每班平均2人的標準下，八十九學年度應有3227位、九十學年度有1006位、九十一學年度有1861位新進教師增聘的空間，合計未來三年共有6094位國中教師之人力需求。（三）八十九學年度國小教師需求扣除九所師院平均每年增加國小教師數量5812人後，尚餘1819人，其前提還是在員額編制調整為每班平均2人。換言之，教育部在九十學年度起國小教師員額編制應有充分的條件可以修改法令調整與國中員額編制相同。且自九十學年度起，國小教師便會產生供過於求的現象。（四）八十八學年度培育中等學校師資為主的台灣師範大學、高雄師範大學以及彰化師範大學等三所大學在學學生人數共有18145人。該數值街不包括政治大學教育系及其他設有中等教育教育學程的大學校院所培育的師資，就已經遠超過未來三年所需新聘的國中師資人數。（五）我國未來三年的國中、國小師資供需將產生供過於求的現象，因此對於降低班級規模為平均每班35人之政策目標，在教師人數部分是有充分的條件來配合該政策的推行。 dc.description.abstract (摘要) Since 1991, the importance of small class has been constantly emphasized by education reform groups. The main policy in "The Education Report of Republic China" and "The Practice Program of Education Reform", published by Ministry of Education, is to lower the elementary and junior high school student number by 35 per class. However, to carry out class size requires consideration for various factors such as class size and the demand for qualified teachers to make correct statistics for reference. The primary goal of this research is to improve the limit of traditional forecasting methods by using grey prediction skill that required just four datum to analyze the teacher supply and demand problem resulted from the reduce of "class size" number. The results are as follows: 1. As for elementary schools, the teacher number should be 1.5 per class according to the present law. Therefore, if the notion is maintained the same with the consideration of nine year compulsory education, there should be 7631 more teachers to be employed in 2000. However, due to the decrease of population of school age, the number of teacher newly employed has showed the phenomenon of negative growth since 2001. 2. As for junior high schools, under the notion of 2 teachers per class, there should be 3227 ones newly employed in 2000, 1006 ones in 2001 and 1861 ones in 2002 school year. There are totally 6094 junior high school teacher demands in three years. 3. After the demand number of elementary school teachers in 2000 subtracted from the provided 5812 teachers per year by nine normal colleges, there just be 1819 ones left with the premise that the personnel is increased to 2 per class. Therefore, since 2001, the supply of elementary school teachers will exceed the demand. 4. There are 18145 students in the primary three Normal Universities in Taiwan without Including ones in the department of Education in ChengChi University as well as other colleges and universities with secondary school education courses. The number of junior high school teacher supply has already far exceeded the demand in future three years. 5. We are facing the problem of the excessive supply of compulsory education teachers; thus, to carry out the policy of constricting class size has already supported by the aspect of teacher number. dc.format.extent 4555029 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.relation (關聯) 教育政策論壇, 3(2), 128-172 dc.subject (關鍵詞) 班級規模 ; 灰預測 dc.subject (關鍵詞) class size ; grey prediction dc.title (題名) 台灣地區國民中小學班級規模規劃與師資需求預測：灰預測方法之應用 zh_TW dc.type (資料類型) article en
