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題名 台北市連鎖便利商店展店行為的動態分析
An Entry Analysis of Convenience Stores in Taipei作者 黃伊平
Hwang, I Pyng貢獻者 王信實
Wang, Shinn Shyr
黃伊平
Hwang, I Pyng關鍵詞 便利商店
離散選擇動態賽局
巢式擬態概似函數(Nested Pseudo Likelihood)
互補效果
替代效果
市場進入決策
Entry
Convenience Store
Dynamic Discrete Game
Complement Effect
Substitution Effect
Nested Pseudo Likelihood日期 2013 上傳時間 1-Apr-2015 10:07:16 (UTC+8) 摘要 臺灣的連鎖式便利商店密度居世界之冠，為數眾多的門市使得便利商店與臺灣人民的生活息息相關，就直覺來說，便利商店門市的數量也影響了廠商設立新門市的決策。本研究建構了一離散選擇的動態賽局，分析臺北市各個行政區便利商店門市數量對不同廠商設立新門市的影響。實證結果顯示當競爭對手門市數量剛開始增加時，門市數量對便利商店的利潤有正向的影響，但是當對手門市數量太多時，此數量的增加對便利商店的利潤產生負向影響。這結果表示一開始門市之間的互補效果大於替代效果，但是門市數量太多造成過度競爭，此時門市之間的替代效果大於互補效果。而同品牌的門市數量對於廠商的總利潤也有類似的影響。另外，本研究也估計便利商店歷年來在臺北市各行政區展店的機率，其中大安區和中山區是便利商店廠商最想展店的行政區，相對而言，南港區、大同區和萬華區則是展店機率較低的行政區。
The density of convenience stores (CVS) in Taiwan is ranked as number one in theworld. The highly concentrated market of convenience stores has dramaticallychanged the lifestyle of Taiwanese people. The number of existing outlets in a regionis also an important factor in regard to the entry decisions of new outlets. In this study,we construct a model of the dynamic discrete game, and examine the influence of therival outlet number on CVS entry decisions in Taipei, Taiwan. The empirical evidencewe find is that the CVS profits first rise and then decline as the own or rival outletnumber increases. This result implies that the complement and substitution effectsvary with the number of the CVS outlets in a specific region. Furthermore, weestimate the probabilities that the CVS companies will set up additional outlets in anydistrict of Taipei during the data period. The results show that it is most likely for thecompanies to enter the Da’an and Zhongshan districts, while Nangang, Datong andWanhua are districts with low entry probabilities.參考文獻 Aguirregabiria, V. (2009). Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games Using the Nested Pseudo Likelihood Algorithm: Code and Application. Mimeo, University of Toronto.Aguirregabiria, V. and Ho, C.-Y. (2010). A dynamic game of airline network competition: Hub-and-spoke networks and entry deterrence. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 28, 377-382.Aguirregabiria, V. and Mira, P. (2007). Sequential estimation of dynamic discrete games. Econometrica 75, 1-53.Bajari, P., L. Benkard and J. Levin (2007). Estimating dynamic models of imperfect competition. Econometrica 75, 1331-1370.Beresteanu, A., and P. B. Ellickson (2006). The Dynamics of Retail Oligopoly. Mimeo, Duke University.Chen, Y.-C. (2013, July 31). 7-11 knocks down McDonald’s even though it has no kitchens. WEALTH MAGZINE, Taiwan. Retrieved from https://www.wealth.com.tw/Data.Taipei (2010). The Map of Village Border in Taipei City. The landmark data in Taipei City. Retrieved from http://www.taipei.gov.tw/Department of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Taipei City Government (2002-2013). Report on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey in Taipei. Retrieved from http://www.dbas.taipei.gov.tw/Department of Civil Affairs, Taipei City Government (2002-2013). Retrieved from http://www.ca.taipei.gov.tw/Jhang, J.-L. (2013 March 4). Convenience stores industry is China is endangered, nearly hundred stores are shut down in Shanghai. Apple Daily, Taiwan. Retrieved from http://www.appledaily.com.tw/Jung, C.-T., Sun, C.-H. and Lee, W.-K. (2005). Spatial Data Mining on Census Data—A Case Study for Location Analysis of Convenience Stores in Taipei City. Journal of Taiwan Geographic Information Science (2), 45-56.Li, Y.-Z. (1991). An analysis of location decisions of convenience store chains. M.A. thesis, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan.Lin, J.-J. (2014, February 28). Soft serve on fire, the stock values of FamilyMart supasses that of 7-11. Commercial Times, Taiwan. Retrieved from http://ctee.com.tw/Luo, L.-R. (2002). The Evaluation Model of Convenience Chain Store``s Site Selection：A Fuzzy AHP Approach. M.A. thesis, National Cheng Kung University, Chiayi, Taiwan.Mazzeo, M. (2002). Product Choice and Oligopoly Market Structure. RAND Journal of Economics, 33.Ministry of Finance (1987-2013). Operation Registration Database. Retrieved from http://www.etax.nat.gov.tw/Netz, J., and B. Taylor (2002). Maximum or Minimum Differentiation? Location Patterns or Retail Outlets. Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, 162–175.Nishida, Mitsukuni (2012). Estimating a Model of Strategic Network Choice: The Convenience-Store Industry in Okinawa. NET Institute Working Paper 8 (27).Smith, H.W. (2004). Supermarket Choice and Supermarket Competition in Market Equilibrium. Review of Economic Studies, vol. 71, 235-263.Thomadsen, R. (2007). Product Positioning and Competition: The Role of Location in the Fast Food Industry. Marketing Science, vol. 26, iss. 6, 792–804.Toivanen, O., and M. Waterson (2005). Market Structure and Entry: Where’s the Beef?. RAND Journal of Economics, 36(3), 680-699.Wang, S.-H., Lin, I-C., Chen, C.-Y., Chen, D.-R., Chan, T.-C. and Chen, W. J. (2013). Availability of convenience stores and adolescent alcohol use in Taiwan: a multi-level analysis of national surveys. Addiction, vol. 108, iss. 12, 2081-2088.Yang, Nathan (2012). Burger King and McDonald`s: Where`s the Spillover?. International Journal of the Economics of Business, vol. 19, iss. 2. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
101258023
102資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101258023 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 王信實 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Wang, Shinn Shyr en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃伊平 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hwang, I Pyng en_US dc.creator (作者) 黃伊平 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Hwang, I Pyng en_US dc.date (日期) 2013 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Apr-2015 10:07:16 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Apr-2015 10:07:16 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Apr-2015 10:07:16 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0101258023 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/74271 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 101258023 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 臺灣的連鎖式便利商店密度居世界之冠，為數眾多的門市使得便利商店與臺灣人民的生活息息相關，就直覺來說，便利商店門市的數量也影響了廠商設立新門市的決策。本研究建構了一離散選擇的動態賽局，分析臺北市各個行政區便利商店門市數量對不同廠商設立新門市的影響。實證結果顯示當競爭對手門市數量剛開始增加時，門市數量對便利商店的利潤有正向的影響，但是當對手門市數量太多時，此數量的增加對便利商店的利潤產生負向影響。這結果表示一開始門市之間的互補效果大於替代效果，但是門市數量太多造成過度競爭，此時門市之間的替代效果大於互補效果。而同品牌的門市數量對於廠商的總利潤也有類似的影響。另外，本研究也估計便利商店歷年來在臺北市各行政區展店的機率，其中大安區和中山區是便利商店廠商最想展店的行政區，相對而言，南港區、大同區和萬華區則是展店機率較低的行政區。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The density of convenience stores (CVS) in Taiwan is ranked as number one in theworld. The highly concentrated market of convenience stores has dramaticallychanged the lifestyle of Taiwanese people. The number of existing outlets in a regionis also an important factor in regard to the entry decisions of new outlets. In this study,we construct a model of the dynamic discrete game, and examine the influence of therival outlet number on CVS entry decisions in Taipei, Taiwan. The empirical evidencewe find is that the CVS profits first rise and then decline as the own or rival outletnumber increases. This result implies that the complement and substitution effectsvary with the number of the CVS outlets in a specific region. Furthermore, weestimate the probabilities that the CVS companies will set up additional outlets in anydistrict of Taipei during the data period. The results show that it is most likely for thecompanies to enter the Da’an and Zhongshan districts, while Nangang, Datong andWanhua are districts with low entry probabilities. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 12. Literature Review 33. Data and Industry 5 3.1 Industry Background 5 3.2 Data 94. Model 125. Estimated Results 17 5.1 Summary Statistics 17 5.2 Empirical Results 18 5.3 Related Literature 286. Conclusion 297. References 308. Appendix 32 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1182979 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0101258023 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 便利商店 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 離散選擇動態賽局 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 巢式擬態概似函數(Nested Pseudo Likelihood) zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 互補效果 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 替代效果 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 市場進入決策 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Entry en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Convenience Store en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dynamic Discrete Game en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Complement Effect en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Substitution Effect en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Nested Pseudo Likelihood en_US dc.title (題名) 台北市連鎖便利商店展店行為的動態分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) An Entry Analysis of Convenience Stores in Taipei en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Aguirregabiria, V. (2009). Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games Using the Nested Pseudo Likelihood Algorithm: Code and Application. Mimeo, University of Toronto.Aguirregabiria, V. and Ho, C.-Y. (2010). A dynamic game of airline network competition: Hub-and-spoke networks and entry deterrence. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 28, 377-382.Aguirregabiria, V. and Mira, P. (2007). Sequential estimation of dynamic discrete games. Econometrica 75, 1-53.Bajari, P., L. Benkard and J. Levin (2007). Estimating dynamic models of imperfect competition. Econometrica 75, 1331-1370.Beresteanu, A., and P. B. Ellickson (2006). The Dynamics of Retail Oligopoly. Mimeo, Duke University.Chen, Y.-C. (2013, July 31). 7-11 knocks down McDonald’s even though it has no kitchens. WEALTH MAGZINE, Taiwan. Retrieved from https://www.wealth.com.tw/Data.Taipei (2010). The Map of Village Border in Taipei City. The landmark data in Taipei City. Retrieved from http://www.taipei.gov.tw/Department of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Taipei City Government (2002-2013). Report on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey in Taipei. Retrieved from http://www.dbas.taipei.gov.tw/Department of Civil Affairs, Taipei City Government (2002-2013). Retrieved from http://www.ca.taipei.gov.tw/Jhang, J.-L. (2013 March 4). Convenience stores industry is China is endangered, nearly hundred stores are shut down in Shanghai. Apple Daily, Taiwan. Retrieved from http://www.appledaily.com.tw/Jung, C.-T., Sun, C.-H. and Lee, W.-K. (2005). Spatial Data Mining on Census Data—A Case Study for Location Analysis of Convenience Stores in Taipei City. Journal of Taiwan Geographic Information Science (2), 45-56.Li, Y.-Z. (1991). An analysis of location decisions of convenience store chains. M.A. thesis, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan.Lin, J.-J. (2014, February 28). Soft serve on fire, the stock values of FamilyMart supasses that of 7-11. Commercial Times, Taiwan. Retrieved from http://ctee.com.tw/Luo, L.-R. (2002). The Evaluation Model of Convenience Chain Store``s Site Selection：A Fuzzy AHP Approach. M.A. thesis, National Cheng Kung University, Chiayi, Taiwan.Mazzeo, M. (2002). Product Choice and Oligopoly Market Structure. RAND Journal of Economics, 33.Ministry of Finance (1987-2013). Operation Registration Database. Retrieved from http://www.etax.nat.gov.tw/Netz, J., and B. Taylor (2002). Maximum or Minimum Differentiation? Location Patterns or Retail Outlets. Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, 162–175.Nishida, Mitsukuni (2012). Estimating a Model of Strategic Network Choice: The Convenience-Store Industry in Okinawa. NET Institute Working Paper 8 (27).Smith, H.W. (2004). Supermarket Choice and Supermarket Competition in Market Equilibrium. Review of Economic Studies, vol. 71, 235-263.Thomadsen, R. (2007). Product Positioning and Competition: The Role of Location in the Fast Food Industry. Marketing Science, vol. 26, iss. 6, 792–804.Toivanen, O., and M. Waterson (2005). Market Structure and Entry: Where’s the Beef?. RAND Journal of Economics, 36(3), 680-699.Wang, S.-H., Lin, I-C., Chen, C.-Y., Chen, D.-R., Chan, T.-C. and Chen, W. J. (2013). Availability of convenience stores and adolescent alcohol use in Taiwan: a multi-level analysis of national surveys. Addiction, vol. 108, iss. 12, 2081-2088.Yang, Nathan (2012). Burger King and McDonald`s: Where`s the Spillover?. International Journal of the Economics of Business, vol. 19, iss. 2. zh_TW
