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TitleFuzzy time series models for LNSZZS forecasting
CreatorWu, Berlin
吳柏林
Xiong, S.
Sun, B.
Contributor應數系
Key WordsComposite index; Degree of membership; Domain problems; Fuzzy time series; Fuzzy time series model; Linguistic variable; LNSZZS; Maximum degree; Weighted average method; Statistical methods; Time series; Forecasting
Date2012
Date Issued12-May-2015 16:06:40 (UTC+8)
SummaryFuzzy time series methods have been recently becoming very popular in forecasting, it has been applied to forecast various domain problems and have been shown to forecast better than other models. But there still some suspicion whether fuzzy time series models is assured to better than ARMA, which is the best defuzzifying method. The purpose of this paper is to answer these two questions. In this paper, we use traditional the fuzzy time series method purposed by Song and Chissom to forecast SSE Composite Index (LNSZZS). In order to compare the forecast results, we used Maximum degree of membership method and Degree of membership weighted average method for defuzzifying. After forecasting by fuzzy time series method, we also compared the result to that calculated by ARMA. The research found that fuzzy time series model is more accurate than ARMA. We also see that for fuzzy time series forecasting model in defuzzifying, maximum degree of membership method is better than Degree of membership weighted average method.
RelationJournal of Convergence Information Technology, Volume 7, Issue 19, 2012, Pages 470-478
Typearticle
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.4156/jcit.vol7.issue19.55
dc.contributor 應數系-
dc.creator (作者) Wu, Berlin-
dc.creator (作者) 吳柏林zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Xiong, S.en_US
dc.creator (作者) Sun, B.en_US
dc.date (日期) 2012-
dc.date.accessioned 12-May-2015 16:06:40 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 12-May-2015 16:06:40 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 12-May-2015 16:06:40 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/75093-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Fuzzy time series methods have been recently becoming very popular in forecasting, it has been applied to forecast various domain problems and have been shown to forecast better than other models. But there still some suspicion whether fuzzy time series models is assured to better than ARMA, which is the best defuzzifying method. The purpose of this paper is to answer these two questions. In this paper, we use traditional the fuzzy time series method purposed by Song and Chissom to forecast SSE Composite Index (LNSZZS). In order to compare the forecast results, we used Maximum degree of membership method and Degree of membership weighted average method for defuzzifying. After forecasting by fuzzy time series method, we also compared the result to that calculated by ARMA. The research found that fuzzy time series model is more accurate than ARMA. We also see that for fuzzy time series forecasting model in defuzzifying, maximum degree of membership method is better than Degree of membership weighted average method.-
dc.format.extent 650332 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.relation (關聯) Journal of Convergence Information Technology, Volume 7, Issue 19, 2012, Pages 470-478-
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Composite index; Degree of membership; Domain problems; Fuzzy time series; Fuzzy time series model; Linguistic variable; LNSZZS; Maximum degree; Weighted average method; Statistical methods; Time series; Forecasting-
dc.title (題名) Fuzzy time series models for LNSZZS forecasting-
dc.type (資料類型) articleen
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.4156/jcit.vol7.issue19.55-
dc.doi.uri (DOI) http://dx.doi.org/10.4156/jcit.vol7.issue19.55-