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題名 華航油價避險方法及管理之建議與應用
Management and application of fuel hedging for Airlines industry作者 陳鵬宇 貢獻者 郭維裕
陳鵬宇關鍵詞 石油期貨市場
衍生性金融商品
油料避險
混沌理論
資訊不對稱
Crude oil futures
derivative products
fuel hedge
Chaos theory
information asymmetry日期 2012 上傳時間 1-Jul-2015 14:47:01 (UTC+8) 摘要 二十一世紀的前十年，是個對美國華爾街信心崩解的關鍵時刻，這裡群聚了全世界最聰明的人，絞盡腦汁設計了「衍生性金融商品」（Derivative），透過虛擬貨物的交易，創造了企業、組織與個人的最大財富，而在「雷曼兄弟」（Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc）破產之後，大家開始省思此類金錢遊戲。 雷曼兄弟破產前，國際油價開始上漲，原因是除了傳統的石油市場外，華爾街投資銀行也介入這塊市場。國際油價向來操縱在石油輸出國組織（OPEC, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries）以及兩大石油期貨市場，分別是來自紐約期貨交易所（NYMEX）的西德州原油（West Texas Intermediate，WTI）和倫敦交易所（IPE）的北海布蘭特原油（Brent oil）。 過去的幾次石油危機，幾乎都與國際政治經濟環境有關，可能因為戰爭或經濟制裁，造成原油市場價格上漲，但是二十一世紀開始的石油上漲，卻有太多人為因素介入。 華爾街的投資銀行介入市場後，打破了傳統原油市場的遊戲規則，他們利用大量的投資報告，經濟前景展望趨勢分析，以操作股票市場的方式，投入原油市場，使得原本受到供給量與國際政治環境影響的石油市場開始出現持續上揚走勢。 國際航空事業受到這波石油市場價格上漲的影響，陸續出現經營危機。過去穩定每桶10-30美元油料成本，最多不會佔航空公司營運成本的百分之三十，但是油價漲破每桶50美元後，油料成本突破了營運成本的百分之四十，航空公司開始調整營業策略，研擬成控（Cost Down）方案，調整營運策略，尋求節油方案。 利用油料避險（Fuel hedging）是國際航空公司最主要控制成本的方式，初期航空公司利用避險控制成本還能獲利，但是隨著油價逐漸上漲，航空公司逐步調高避險部位（portion），當油價漲破100美元時，華爾街分析師開始利用各種報告分析國際油價將突破200美元，已經被油價侵蝕獲利的航空公司除了提高油料避險佔現貨價格的比例，也逐步提高避險價位至90美元。 但是油價漲到歷史高點147美元時，國際油價反轉下跌，避險價位在90-100美元的航空公司在贖回買權時，油價已經跌到了30美元，國際航空公司在2009年因為油料避險所造成的虧損，是過去十年來因為避險所盈利的數十倍。 本論文除了利用統計學方法來分析國際油價走勢，同時也使用了混沌理論（Chaos theory）和資訊不對稱理論(information asymmetry)模型來分析華爾街因為人為因素介入，使得使用油料避險達到控制成本和固定成本的風險日益增加，未來在管理油料避險時，可以避免因為人為操作的道德危機所造成的經營危機。
The first decade of the twenty first century marked the downfall of United States of America`s Wall Street. People during this time lose their trust on the most famous commercial area, where the world`s smartest and most innovative people designed the "derivative products" that gave birth and fortune to corporations including Lehman`s Brothers Holding, Inc.. Prior to Lehman Brothers` bankruptcy, world market prices of oil rose brought about not only by existence of crude oil markets, but also by investments made by Wall Street investment banks. The world prices of oil is largely dictated by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), NYMEX, WTI (West Texas Intermediate), IPE and Brent Oil. Shortage of oil in the past was somehow due to international political and economic environment, and wars and economic sanctions, which led to increase in the prices of oil. However, due to such oil price hike at the beginning of the 21st century, more parties have invested in the industry. When Wall Street investment banks entered the oil market, most of conventional rules and regulations involving such market were changed. Large amounts of investment reports, economic forecasts and trend analysis were used to manipulate the stock market, leading to oil price fluctuations. Even the aviation industry was affected by continuous oil price hike, which gradually lead to economic crisis. Previous stable oil price of USD10-30 per barrel occupied at most 30% of an airline companies expenses. However, when prices increased to USD50 per barrel, expenses on oil took up 40% of the total operating expenses, forcing airline companies to adjust cost management strategies and cut down on costs. These airline companies then resorted to fuel hedging to control not only costs, but also profits. However, continuous oil price hike led to growing dependence on fuel hedging. When oil prices reached USD100, Wall Street analysts started to use various report projecting oil prices to increase to USD200. This led to lower profits and gradual increase of hedging costs to USD90. But, when oil prices reached a historical height of USD147, it began to plummet to as low as USD30. In 2009, international airline companies, which have hedged of around USD90-10, suffered losses ten-fold of what was supposed to be their profit ten years ago. This study used statistical method, together with the Chaos theory and information asymmetry to make an analysis on the global oil price, and the causes and effects of the downfall of Wall Street. The risk management achieved its purpose, which is to control the probable causes and risks of fluctuation. Moreover, it may help alleviate the price manipulation on the world market.
"摘要…………………………………………………………………………………1 謝辭…………………………………………………………………………………2 第一章 研究動機………………………………………………………………3 一、 油價重挫航空業……………………………………………………3 二、 研究方法………………………………………………………………5 第二章 世界原油價格制訂機制…………………………………………………7 一、 世界原油市場的演變…………………………………………………7 二、 國際原油價格的制訂過程……………………………………………8 三、 避險還是招險………………………………………………………11 第三章 航空公司如何操作油料選擇權為避險工具……………………………15 一、 無法掌握的油價趨勢………………………………………………15 二、 自然避險……………………………………………………………16 三、 固定式避險操作……………………………………………………17 四、 彈性避險操作………………………………………………………19 五、 2008年航空公司鉅額虧損從何而來………………………………20 六、 小結…………………………………………………………………23 第四章 選擇權避險的數學模型…………………………………………………24 一、 數學模型的選擇權趨勢……………………………………………24 二、 科學原則的實證與否證……………………………………………30 第五章 混沌與資訊不對稱-油價為何無法以數學模型預測…………………33 一、 混沌理論……………………………………………………………34 二、 資訊不對稱…………………………………………………………41 第六章 結論…………………………………………………………………………50 一、 如何面對石油交易的質變…………………………………………50 二、 油料避險無法控制成本……………………………………………50 三、 以控制存貨來控制成本……………………………………………51 四、 油品市場的「資訊不對稱」風險高………………………………52 五、 華爾街的道德風險太高……………………………………………53 六、 回歸供給需求基本面………………………………………………54 七、 預測的未來是什麼…………………………………………………55 參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………56 附錄一 油料市場與避險策略………………………………………………………59 附錄二 油料避險與基本財務概念…………………………………………………70 附錄三 航空公司油料成本控制……………………………………………………82 附錄四 航空公司避險決策探討……………………………………………………96 附錄五 王文淵訪談記錄…………………………………………………………102參考文獻 一、中文部分 1. 謝文耀（2007）動態原油期貨避險- 以 WTI 原油期貨為例, 中原大學 2. 約翰᷿ 柏金斯 著（2007） 戴綺薇 譯 經濟殺手的告白, 時報出版 3. 丹尼爾 尤金著 劉道捷譯（2012）, 能源大探索, 時報出版 4. Bill Williams 著 黃嘉斌譯（2009）, 混沌操作法新解, 寰宇出版 5. Philip Kotler & John A. Caslione 合著 游紫玲等譯（2009）, 科特勒混沌學 , 三采文化出版 6. 許誠洲著 （2010）, 衍生性金融商品理論與實務, 台灣金融研訓院 7. Harry S. Dent , Jr. & Rodney Johnson 著 王怡棻等譯（2012） , 2012 大蕭條 , 商周出版 8. Michael T. Klare 著 洪慧芳譯（2012）, 石油的政治經濟學, 財信出版 9. 經濟部能源局, 能源報導 http: / / energymont hly. tier . org. tw about. asp 10. MBA智庫百科, http: / / www. mbalib. com/ 11. 沈震宏, 參加第八屆亞洲石化進料市場會議報告（2009）, 台灣中油股份有限公司 二、英文部分 1. OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin,2012 2. IATA annual Report,2010 3. IATA Financial Forecast ,June 2010 4. Chris Lauer, “Loyalty Rules! : How today’s Leaders Build Lasting Relationships, “review of Loyalty Rules ! by Fredrick F. Reichheld. 5. Fred Geyer and Chiaki Nishino, :Making Marketing Smarter Amidst the Cuts,” Propjet Newsletter, December 2008, http://www.prophet.com/. 6. Lenny T. Mendonca and Jeremy Oppenheim, “investing in sustainability: an interview with Al Gore and David Blood,” McKinsey Quarterly, May 207, Http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/. 7. The Essential Tension: How to Reconcile New vs. Old to Achieve Breakthrough Innovation in a Large Organization,” presentation by Vijay Govinkarajan at Leaders in London, London, UK. December 4, 2008. 8. Southwest Airlines, “Southwest Airlines Reports Fourth Quarter Earnings and 35th Consecutive Year of Profitability,” news release, January 23, 2008.http://www.southwest.com/. 9. Ian Davis, “Learning to Grow Again,” McKinsey Quarterly, February 2004. http//:www.mckinesyquarterly.com/. 10. Jane C. Linder and Brian McCarthy, “ When Good Management Shows, Creating Value in an Uncertain Economy” (research report, Accenture Institute for Strategic Change, Cambridge, MA, September 2002), http://www.accenture.com/. 11. Christian Wienberg and Tasneem Brogger, “ Sterling Airlines of Denmark Is Declared Bankrupt.” Bloomberg, October 29, 2008,http://www.bloomberg.com/. 12. “From risk to opportunity – How global executives view sociopolitical issue: McKinsey Global Survey Results,” McKinsey Quarterly, October 2008. 13. Marcel W. Brinkman, Nick Hoffman, and Jeremy M. Oppenheim, “How climate change could affect corporate valuation,” McKinsey Quarterly, October 2008, http:// www.mckinseyquarterly.com/. 14. Caroline Brothers, “Budget airlines’ strategy is split,” International Herald Tribune, November 18, 2008,http://www.iht.com/. 15. Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, 3rd ed. (1942: repr., New York: Harper & Row, 1950). 16. “Disruptive technology,” Wikipedia,http://en.wikipedia.org/. 17. “The credit crunch: China moves to centre stage,” The Economist, October 30, 2008, 18. ”Financial crisis needs unprecedented responses,” GEOWorld,http://www.geo.tv/. 19. “Stock market suffers largest drop ever, experts say,” GreenvilleOnline.com, September 29, 2008,http://www.greenvilleonline.com/: Tim Paradis, “Dow Climbs More Than 900 Points,” KUTV Online, October 13, 2008, http://www/kitv.com/: “Whiplash Ends a Roller CoasterWeek,” New York Times, October 10, 2008, http://nytimes.com/. 20. “Worst financial crisis in human history: Bank boss’s warming as pound suffers biggest fall for 37 years,” Daily Mail, October 25, 2008, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/. 21. “Information Technology and Globalization.” Global envision, February 15, 2006: 22. “Let it rise,” The Economist, October 23, 2008, http://www.economist.com/sprcoa;re[prts/dos[layStory.cfm?story_id=12411882: and “The long nimbus,” The Economist, October 23, 2008,http://www.economist.com/. 23. The Innovator’s Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth, by Peter Drucker, The Age of Discontinuity (New York: HarperCollins Publication, 1992). 24. Alan Greenspan, The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a NewWorld, (New York Penguin, 2007). 25. Clayton Christensen, Business Innovation and disruptive Technology: Harnessing the Power of Breakthrough Technology for Competitive Advantage( Upper Saddle River, NJ: Financial Times prentice Hall Books, 2003). 26. ”Butterfly effect.” Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/. 27. “Business turbulence,” BNET Business Dictionary, http://disctionary.bnet. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經營管理碩士學程(EMBA)
95932005
101資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095932005 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 郭維裕 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 陳鵬宇 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) 陳鵬宇 zh_TW dc.date (日期) 2012 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2015 14:47:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Jul-2015 14:47:01 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2015 14:47:01 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0095932005 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/76181 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經營管理碩士學程(EMBA) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 95932005 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 101 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 二十一世紀的前十年，是個對美國華爾街信心崩解的關鍵時刻，這裡群聚了全世界最聰明的人，絞盡腦汁設計了「衍生性金融商品」（Derivative），透過虛擬貨物的交易，創造了企業、組織與個人的最大財富，而在「雷曼兄弟」（Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc）破產之後，大家開始省思此類金錢遊戲。 雷曼兄弟破產前，國際油價開始上漲，原因是除了傳統的石油市場外，華爾街投資銀行也介入這塊市場。國際油價向來操縱在石油輸出國組織（OPEC, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries）以及兩大石油期貨市場，分別是來自紐約期貨交易所（NYMEX）的西德州原油（West Texas Intermediate，WTI）和倫敦交易所（IPE）的北海布蘭特原油（Brent oil）。 過去的幾次石油危機，幾乎都與國際政治經濟環境有關，可能因為戰爭或經濟制裁，造成原油市場價格上漲，但是二十一世紀開始的石油上漲，卻有太多人為因素介入。 華爾街的投資銀行介入市場後，打破了傳統原油市場的遊戲規則，他們利用大量的投資報告，經濟前景展望趨勢分析，以操作股票市場的方式，投入原油市場，使得原本受到供給量與國際政治環境影響的石油市場開始出現持續上揚走勢。 國際航空事業受到這波石油市場價格上漲的影響，陸續出現經營危機。過去穩定每桶10-30美元油料成本，最多不會佔航空公司營運成本的百分之三十，但是油價漲破每桶50美元後，油料成本突破了營運成本的百分之四十，航空公司開始調整營業策略，研擬成控（Cost Down）方案，調整營運策略，尋求節油方案。 利用油料避險（Fuel hedging）是國際航空公司最主要控制成本的方式，初期航空公司利用避險控制成本還能獲利，但是隨著油價逐漸上漲，航空公司逐步調高避險部位（portion），當油價漲破100美元時，華爾街分析師開始利用各種報告分析國際油價將突破200美元，已經被油價侵蝕獲利的航空公司除了提高油料避險佔現貨價格的比例，也逐步提高避險價位至90美元。 但是油價漲到歷史高點147美元時，國際油價反轉下跌，避險價位在90-100美元的航空公司在贖回買權時，油價已經跌到了30美元，國際航空公司在2009年因為油料避險所造成的虧損，是過去十年來因為避險所盈利的數十倍。 本論文除了利用統計學方法來分析國際油價走勢，同時也使用了混沌理論（Chaos theory）和資訊不對稱理論(information asymmetry)模型來分析華爾街因為人為因素介入，使得使用油料避險達到控制成本和固定成本的風險日益增加，未來在管理油料避險時，可以避免因為人為操作的道德危機所造成的經營危機。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The first decade of the twenty first century marked the downfall of United States of America`s Wall Street. People during this time lose their trust on the most famous commercial area, where the world`s smartest and most innovative people designed the "derivative products" that gave birth and fortune to corporations including Lehman`s Brothers Holding, Inc.. Prior to Lehman Brothers` bankruptcy, world market prices of oil rose brought about not only by existence of crude oil markets, but also by investments made by Wall Street investment banks. The world prices of oil is largely dictated by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), NYMEX, WTI (West Texas Intermediate), IPE and Brent Oil. Shortage of oil in the past was somehow due to international political and economic environment, and wars and economic sanctions, which led to increase in the prices of oil. However, due to such oil price hike at the beginning of the 21st century, more parties have invested in the industry. When Wall Street investment banks entered the oil market, most of conventional rules and regulations involving such market were changed. Large amounts of investment reports, economic forecasts and trend analysis were used to manipulate the stock market, leading to oil price fluctuations. Even the aviation industry was affected by continuous oil price hike, which gradually lead to economic crisis. Previous stable oil price of USD10-30 per barrel occupied at most 30% of an airline companies expenses. However, when prices increased to USD50 per barrel, expenses on oil took up 40% of the total operating expenses, forcing airline companies to adjust cost management strategies and cut down on costs. These airline companies then resorted to fuel hedging to control not only costs, but also profits. However, continuous oil price hike led to growing dependence on fuel hedging. When oil prices reached USD100, Wall Street analysts started to use various report projecting oil prices to increase to USD200. This led to lower profits and gradual increase of hedging costs to USD90. But, when oil prices reached a historical height of USD147, it began to plummet to as low as USD30. In 2009, international airline companies, which have hedged of around USD90-10, suffered losses ten-fold of what was supposed to be their profit ten years ago. This study used statistical method, together with the Chaos theory and information asymmetry to make an analysis on the global oil price, and the causes and effects of the downfall of Wall Street. The risk management achieved its purpose, which is to control the probable causes and risks of fluctuation. Moreover, it may help alleviate the price manipulation on the world market. en_US dc.description.abstract (摘要) "摘要…………………………………………………………………………………1 謝辭…………………………………………………………………………………2 第一章 研究動機………………………………………………………………3 一、 油價重挫航空業……………………………………………………3 二、 研究方法………………………………………………………………5 第二章 世界原油價格制訂機制…………………………………………………7 一、 世界原油市場的演變…………………………………………………7 二、 國際原油價格的制訂過程……………………………………………8 三、 避險還是招險………………………………………………………11 第三章 航空公司如何操作油料選擇權為避險工具……………………………15 一、 無法掌握的油價趨勢………………………………………………15 二、 自然避險……………………………………………………………16 三、 固定式避險操作……………………………………………………17 四、 彈性避險操作………………………………………………………19 五、 2008年航空公司鉅額虧損從何而來………………………………20 六、 小結…………………………………………………………………23 第四章 選擇權避險的數學模型…………………………………………………24 一、 數學模型的選擇權趨勢……………………………………………24 二、 科學原則的實證與否證……………………………………………30 第五章 混沌與資訊不對稱-油價為何無法以數學模型預測…………………33 一、 混沌理論……………………………………………………………34 二、 資訊不對稱…………………………………………………………41 第六章 結論…………………………………………………………………………50 一、 如何面對石油交易的質變…………………………………………50 二、 油料避險無法控制成本……………………………………………50 三、 以控制存貨來控制成本……………………………………………51 四、 油品市場的「資訊不對稱」風險高………………………………52 五、 華爾街的道德風險太高……………………………………………53 六、 回歸供給需求基本面………………………………………………54 七、 預測的未來是什麼…………………………………………………55 參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………56 附錄一 油料市場與避險策略………………………………………………………59 附錄二 油料避險與基本財務概念…………………………………………………70 附錄三 航空公司油料成本控制……………………………………………………82 附錄四 航空公司避險決策探討……………………………………………………96 附錄五 王文淵訪談記錄…………………………………………………………102 - dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要…………………………………………………………………………………1 謝辭…………………………………………………………………………………2 第一章 研究動機………………………………………………………………3 一、 油價重挫航空業……………………………………………………3 二、 研究方法………………………………………………………………5 第二章 世界原油價格制訂機制…………………………………………………7 一、 世界原油市場的演變…………………………………………………7 二、 國際原油價格的制訂過程……………………………………………8 三、 避險還是招險………………………………………………………11 第三章 航空公司如何操作油料選擇權為避險工具……………………………15 一、 無法掌握的油價趨勢………………………………………………15 二、 自然避險……………………………………………………………16 三、 固定式避險操作……………………………………………………17 四、 彈性避險操作………………………………………………………19 五、 2008年航空公司鉅額虧損從何而來………………………………20 六、 小結…………………………………………………………………23 第四章 選擇權避險的數學模型…………………………………………………24 一、 數學模型的選擇權趨勢……………………………………………24 二、 科學原則的實證與否證……………………………………………30 第五章 混沌與資訊不對稱-油價為何無法以數學模型預測…………………33 一、 混沌理論……………………………………………………………34 二、 資訊不對稱…………………………………………………………41 第六章 結論…………………………………………………………………………50 一、 如何面對石油交易的質變…………………………………………50 二、 油料避險無法控制成本……………………………………………50 三、 以控制存貨來控制成本……………………………………………51 四、 油品市場的「資訊不對稱」風險高………………………………52 五、 華爾街的道德風險太高……………………………………………53 六、 回歸供給需求基本面………………………………………………54 七、 預測的未來是什麼…………………………………………………55 參考文獻……………………………………………………………………………56 附錄一 油料市場與避險策略………………………………………………………59 附錄二 油料避險與基本財務概念…………………………………………………70 附錄三 航空公司油料成本控制……………………………………………………82 附錄四 航空公司避險決策探討……………………………………………………96 附錄五 王文淵訪談記錄…………………………………………………………102 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095932005 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 石油期貨市場 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 衍生性金融商品 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 油料避險 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 混沌理論 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資訊不對稱 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Crude oil futures en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) derivative products en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) fuel hedge en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Chaos theory en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) information asymmetry en_US dc.title (題名) 華航油價避險方法及管理之建議與應用 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Management and application of fuel hedging for Airlines industry en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分 1. 謝文耀（2007）動態原油期貨避險- 以 WTI 原油期貨為例, 中原大學 2. 約翰᷿ 柏金斯 著（2007） 戴綺薇 譯 經濟殺手的告白, 時報出版 3. 丹尼爾 尤金著 劉道捷譯（2012）, 能源大探索, 時報出版 4. 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