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題名 台北市高房價成因剖析─以租價關係、總體因素與預期因素探討
Why the Housing Price so High in Taipei? An Analysis on Rent, Price, Macroeconomic Factors and Expectations
作者 吳孟璇
Wu, Meng Hsuan
貢獻者 陳奉瑤
Chen, Fung Yao
吳孟璇
Wu, Meng Hsuan
關鍵詞 住宅價格
租價關係
房市泡沫
Housing price
Bubble
Relationship between house price and rent
日期 2014
上傳時間 1-Jul-2015 14:58:35 (UTC+8)
摘要 近年來，台灣許多縣市的住宅價格不斷高漲，身為政經重鎮之台北市首當其衝，於2008~2009年金融海嘯時期，政府為維持經濟發展而全面將遺產及贈與稅調降為單一稅率10% 後尤然。以產品價值而言，此波上漲很可能來自於「逢低買進，逢高賣出」之投資心理造成。由於不動產最終用途為使用，當真實需求者無力負擔時將導致房市泡沫，更因房市的經濟佔額高，進而可能引發經濟泡沫。為檢視台北市住宅價格的合理性，鑒於出租住宅需求者動機單純，本文以租價關係探討台北市住宅價格是否已有偏離實際使用需求之現象；且是否因未來的住宅價格在預期之引導下，使房價似遵循著過去價格的成長而逐步提高，有不效率之現象。實證結果顯示，台北市住宅價格與租金間已然背離，在金融海嘯過後種種非理性現象更為嚴重，導致房價有偏離其合理結構之虞，成交總價越高的住宅、偏離情況越為明顯，而存在泡沫化危機。
In recent years, the housing market has been awash with funds. The phenomenon resulted in domestic housing prices in Taipei rising year by year, especially after the Subprime mortgage crisis. From the viewpoint of economics, the price is decided by supply and demand. However, with regard to the value of product, this rising of housing price probably comes from the artificial demand. In other words, this kind of demand is just like "buy low and sell high". In addition, real estate is a special commodity, except as an investment good, it is also a necessary consumption good. Furthermore, real estate is expense, making housing the biggest item among households’ assets. Once housing price is too high and the actual demanders cannot burden with; that is likely to trigger a market bubble, which caused the imbalance of trade market.
According to the aforementioned, this study will observe whether the housing price has deviated from the fundamentals in Taipei City. Since the demand of rent is only for living, we probing into the relationship between housing price and rent in order to observe the rationality of housing price; and if the future housing price in the anticipated guided, the price seems to follow the historical trend, and the higher the housing price of an area, the more significant. The empirical results show that, the housing price seems to prevail in unreasonable investment in Taipei City, which may lead into a bubble crisis.
參考文獻 一、中文參考文獻
李美杏、陳威廷、彭建文，2014，「亞洲城市房價基值與泡沫」，『都市與計劃』，41(2)：169-198。
林子欽、林子雅，2008，「公部門不動產估價成效評估－公平性之觀點」，『住宅學報』，17(2)：63-80。
林子欽、許明芳，2004，「個別土地開發前的產權調整─市地重劃區個案觀察」，『台灣土地研究』，6(2)：1-16。
林左裕、程于芳，2014，「影響不動產市場之從眾行為與總體經濟因素之研究」，『應用經濟論叢』，95：61-99。
姜堯民，2001，『不動產投資─理論與實務』，台北：新陸書局。
張怡文、江穎慧、張金鶚，2009，「分量迴歸在大量估價模型之應用─非典型住宅估價之改進」，『都市與計劃』，36(3)：281-304。
張金鶚、花敬群、彭建文、楊宗憲，2013，『房地產市場分析：理論與實務』，台北：華泰文化。
張金鶚、楊宗憲、洪御仁，2008，「中古屋及預售屋房價指數之建立、評估與整合－台北市之實證分析」，『住宅學報』， 17(2)：13-34。
張鼎煥、邱建良、黃健銘，2014，「不動產買賣與拍賣次級市場流動性影響因素」，『住宅學報』，23(1)：19-34。
董倩、王千紅，2010，「基於房租資本化模型的我國房地產泡沫實證分析」，『經濟師』，2：189-190。
趙永祥、吳依正，2014，「後全球金融危機中國大陸房市是否有泡沫化危機? 」，『華人經濟研究』，12(1)：169-187。
趙奉軍，2010，「基於住房持有成本模型的租金房價比變動」，『武漢理工大學學報: 社會科學版』，23(2)：182-187。
劉仁和、程昆、莫金玲，2011，「我國四大城市住宅價格與租金的關係研究」，『中國房地產: 學術版』，9：19-25。
梁仁旭、廖彬傑、陳奉瑤、葉惠中，2015，「應用克利金法輔助地價區段劃設之研究」，『台灣土地研究』，18(1)
二、外文參考文獻
Allison, P. D., 1999, Multiple regression: A primer: Pine Forge Press.
André, C., L. A. Gil-Alana, and R. Gupta. 2014, "Testing for persistence in housing price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios in 16 OECD countries", Applied Economics, 46(18): 2127-2138.
Ayuso, J., and F. Restoy. 2006, "House prices and rents: An equilibrium asset pricing approach", Journal of Empirical Finance, 13(3): 371-388.
Börsch-Supan, A., F. Heiss, and M. Seko. 2001, "Housing demand in Germany and Japan", Journal of Housing Economics, 10(3): 229-252.
Baffoe-Bonnie, J., 1998, "The dynamic impact of macroeconomic aggregates on housing prices and stock of houses: a national and regional analysis", The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17(2): 179-197.
Barras, R., 1994, "Property and the economic cycle: Building cycles revisited∗", Journal of Property Research, 11(3): 183-197.
Bjørnland, H. C., and D. H. Jacobsen. (2008). The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the US: Citeseer.
Bowen, A., 1994, "Housing and the Macroeconomy in the United Kingdom", Housing Policy Debate, 5(3): 241-251.
Bracke, P., 2014, "House Prices and Rents: Microevidence from a Matched Data Set in Central London", Real Estate Economics.
Calza, A., T. Monacelli, and L. Stracca. 2013, "Housing finance and monetary policy", Journal of the European Economic Association, 11(s1): 101-122.
Campbell, J. Y., and L. Hentschel. 1992, "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns", Journal of Financial Economics, 31(3): 281-318.
Campbella, S. D., M. A. Davisb, and R. F. Martin. 2009, "What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent–price ratio", Journal of Urban Economics, 66(2): 90-102.
Capozza, D. R., and P. J. Seguin. 1996, "Expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 26(3): 369-386.
Ceron, J. A., and J. Suarez. 2006, Hot and cold housing markets: International evidence: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
Chang, K.-L., N.-K. Chen, and C. K. Y. Leung. 2011, "Monetary policy, term structure and asset return: comparing REIT, housing and stock", The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 43(1-2): 221-257.
Clayton, J., 1996, "Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility", Real Estate Economics, 24(4): 441-470.
Clayton, J., 1997, "Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?", The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 14(3): 341-363.
Colwell, P. F., and H. J. Munneke. 1997, "The structure of urban land prices", Journal of Urban Economics, 41(3): 321-336.
Colwell, P. F., and H. J. Munneke. 1999, "Land prices and land assembly in the CBD", The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 18(2): 163-180.
Daniel, W. T., 2002, "The dynamics of metropolitan housing prices", Journal of Real Estate Research, 23(1): 29-46.
Davis, M. A., and J. Heathcote. 2005, "Housing and the business cycle*", International Economic Review, 46(3): 751-784.
de Haan, J., 2004, "Direct and indirect time dummy approaches to hedonic price measurement", Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 29(4): 427-443.
Dokko, J., B. Doyle, M. T. Kiley, J. Kim, S. Sherlund, J. Sim, and S. Van den Heuvel. 2009, Monetary policy and the housing bubble: Division of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board.
Dusansky, R., Ç. Koç, and I. Onur. 2012, "Household housing demand: empirical analysis and theoretical reconciliation", The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 44(4): 429-445.
Epple, D., L. Quintero, and H. Sieg. (2013). Estimating Hedonic Functions for Rents and Values in the Presence of Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Quality for Housing: Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
Funke, M., and M. Paetz. 2013, "Housing prices and the business cycle: An empirical application to Hong Kong", Journal of Housing Economics, 22(1): 62-76.
Gallin, J., 2008, "The Long‐Run Relationship Between House Prices and Rents", Real Estate Economics, 36(4): 635-658.
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Hattapoglu, M., and I. Hoxha. 2013, "The Dependency of Rent-to-Price Ratio on Appreciation Expectations: An Empirical Approach", The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics: 1-20.
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Hoskins, N., D. Higgins, and R. Cardew. 2004, "Macroeconomic variables and real estate returns: an international comparison", Appraisal Journal, 72(2): 163-170.
Huang, M.-C., 2013, "The Role of People`s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust", The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 46(3): 452-479.
Hui, E., and Z. Wang. 2014, "Price anomalies and effectiveness of macro control policies: Evidence from Chinese housing markets", Land Use Policy, 39: 96-109.
Iacoviello, M., 2005, "House prices, borrowing constraints, and monetary policy in the business cycle", American economic review: 739-764.
Ito, T., 1993, "The land/housing problem in Japan: a macroeconomic approach", Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 7(1): 1-31.
Kishor, N. K., and J. Morley, 2014, What Moves the Price-Rent Ratio for Housing? A Modified Present-Value Approach. A Modified Present-Value Approach (April 7, 2014). UNSW Australian School of Business Research Paper.
Koenker, R., and G. Bassett Jr. 1982, "Robust tests for heteroscedasticity based on regression quantiles", Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society: 43-61.
Koenker, R., and K. Hallock. 2001, "Quantile regression: An introduction", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(4): 43-56.
Kuan, C.-M., 2007, "An introduction to quantile regression", Institute of Economics.
Leung, C., 2004, "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature", Journal of Housing Economics, 13(4): 249-267.
McCue, T. E., and J. L. Kling. 1994, "Real estate returns and the macroeconomy: some empirical evidence from real estate investment trust data, 1972-1991", Journal of Real Estate Research, 9(3): 277-287.
Meese, R., and N. Wallace. 1994, "Testing the present value relation for housing prices: Should I leave my house in San Francisco?", Journal of Urban Economics, 35(3): 245-266.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
102257001
103
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1022570011
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳奉瑤zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Fung Yaoen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳孟璇zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wu, Meng Hsuanen_US
dc.creator (作者) 吳孟璇zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Wu, Meng Hsuanen_US
dc.date (日期) 2014en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Jul-2015 14:58:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Jul-2015 14:58:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Jul-2015 14:58:35 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1022570011en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/76241-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102257001zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 103zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近年來，台灣許多縣市的住宅價格不斷高漲，身為政經重鎮之台北市首當其衝，於2008~2009年金融海嘯時期，政府為維持經濟發展而全面將遺產及贈與稅調降為單一稅率10% 後尤然。以產品價值而言，此波上漲很可能來自於「逢低買進，逢高賣出」之投資心理造成。由於不動產最終用途為使用，當真實需求者無力負擔時將導致房市泡沫，更因房市的經濟佔額高，進而可能引發經濟泡沫。為檢視台北市住宅價格的合理性，鑒於出租住宅需求者動機單純，本文以租價關係探討台北市住宅價格是否已有偏離實際使用需求之現象；且是否因未來的住宅價格在預期之引導下，使房價似遵循著過去價格的成長而逐步提高，有不效率之現象。實證結果顯示，台北市住宅價格與租金間已然背離，在金融海嘯過後種種非理性現象更為嚴重，導致房價有偏離其合理結構之虞，成交總價越高的住宅、偏離情況越為明顯，而存在泡沫化危機。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In recent years, the housing market has been awash with funds. The phenomenon resulted in domestic housing prices in Taipei rising year by year, especially after the Subprime mortgage crisis. From the viewpoint of economics, the price is decided by supply and demand. However, with regard to the value of product, this rising of housing price probably comes from the artificial demand. In other words, this kind of demand is just like "buy low and sell high". In addition, real estate is a special commodity, except as an investment good, it is also a necessary consumption good. Furthermore, real estate is expense, making housing the biggest item among households’ assets. Once housing price is too high and the actual demanders cannot burden with; that is likely to trigger a market bubble, which caused the imbalance of trade market.
According to the aforementioned, this study will observe whether the housing price has deviated from the fundamentals in Taipei City. Since the demand of rent is only for living, we probing into the relationship between housing price and rent in order to observe the rationality of housing price; and if the future housing price in the anticipated guided, the price seems to follow the historical trend, and the higher the housing price of an area, the more significant. The empirical results show that, the housing price seems to prevail in unreasonable investment in Taipei City, which may lead into a bubble crisis.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節　研究動機與目的 1
第二節　研究方法與範圍 5
第三節　研究架構與流程 7
第二章　文獻回顧 9
第一節　住宅價格與租金之關係 9
第二節　住宅價格與總體經濟市場之互動關係 14
第三節　住宅價格與預期心理之相關性 20
第四節　小結 25
第三章　研究設計 27
第一節　特徵價格模型之建構 27
第二節　資料來源及內容 34
第三節　小結 41
第四章　實證分析 43
第一節　住宅與租賃市場受預期影響之模型分析 43
第二節　住宅交易市場於金融海嘯前後之模型異同分析 52
第三節　小結 76
第五章　結論與建議 79
第一節　結論 79
第二節　建議 83
參考文獻 87		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2015590 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1022570011en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 住宅價格zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 租價關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房市泡沫zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing priceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Bubbleen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Relationship between house price and renten_US
dc.title (題名) 台北市高房價成因剖析─以租價關係、總體因素與預期因素探討zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Why the Housing Price so High in Taipei? An Analysis on Rent, Price, Macroeconomic Factors and Expectationsen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文參考文獻
李美杏、陳威廷、彭建文，2014，「亞洲城市房價基值與泡沫」，『都市與計劃』，41(2)：169-198。
林子欽、林子雅，2008，「公部門不動產估價成效評估－公平性之觀點」，『住宅學報』，17(2)：63-80。
林子欽、許明芳，2004，「個別土地開發前的產權調整─市地重劃區個案觀察」，『台灣土地研究』，6(2)：1-16。
林左裕、程于芳，2014，「影響不動產市場之從眾行為與總體經濟因素之研究」，『應用經濟論叢』，95：61-99。
姜堯民，2001，『不動產投資─理論與實務』，台北：新陸書局。
張怡文、江穎慧、張金鶚，2009，「分量迴歸在大量估價模型之應用─非典型住宅估價之改進」，『都市與計劃』，36(3)：281-304。
張金鶚、花敬群、彭建文、楊宗憲，2013，『房地產市場分析：理論與實務』，台北：華泰文化。
張金鶚、楊宗憲、洪御仁，2008，「中古屋及預售屋房價指數之建立、評估與整合－台北市之實證分析」，『住宅學報』， 17(2)：13-34。
張鼎煥、邱建良、黃健銘，2014，「不動產買賣與拍賣次級市場流動性影響因素」，『住宅學報』，23(1)：19-34。
董倩、王千紅，2010，「基於房租資本化模型的我國房地產泡沫實證分析」，『經濟師』，2：189-190。
趙永祥、吳依正，2014，「後全球金融危機中國大陸房市是否有泡沫化危機? 」，『華人經濟研究』，12(1)：169-187。
趙奉軍，2010，「基於住房持有成本模型的租金房價比變動」，『武漢理工大學學報: 社會科學版』，23(2)：182-187。
劉仁和、程昆、莫金玲，2011，「我國四大城市住宅價格與租金的關係研究」，『中國房地產: 學術版』，9：19-25。
梁仁旭、廖彬傑、陳奉瑤、葉惠中，2015，「應用克利金法輔助地價區段劃設之研究」，『台灣土地研究』，18(1)
二、外文參考文獻
Allison, P. D., 1999, Multiple regression: A primer: Pine Forge Press.
André, C., L. A. Gil-Alana, and R. Gupta. 2014, "Testing for persistence in housing price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios in 16 OECD countries", Applied Economics, 46(18): 2127-2138.
Ayuso, J., and F. Restoy. 2006, "House prices and rents: An equilibrium asset pricing approach", Journal of Empirical Finance, 13(3): 371-388.
Börsch-Supan, A., F. Heiss, and M. Seko. 2001, "Housing demand in Germany and Japan", Journal of Housing Economics, 10(3): 229-252.
Baffoe-Bonnie, J., 1998, "The dynamic impact of macroeconomic aggregates on housing prices and stock of houses: a national and regional analysis", The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 17(2): 179-197.
Barras, R., 1994, "Property and the economic cycle: Building cycles revisited∗", Journal of Property Research, 11(3): 183-197.
Bjørnland, H. C., and D. H. Jacobsen. (2008). The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the US: Citeseer.
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