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題名 影響中國創業投資產業發展之因素探討
Influential Factors of Venture Capital Activity in China
作者 李品瑛
貢獻者 吳啟銘
李品瑛
關鍵詞 創業投資
中國
投資額
Venture Capital
China
investment volume
日期 2015
上傳時間 3-Aug-2015 13:13:36 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文藉由觀察中國創業投資基金投入金額之變化,試圖探討影響中國大陸創業投資產業發展之因素,經由國內外期刊、文獻之歸納整理並加以判斷分析,本研究決定採用九個變數,並分類為三大群組,分別為:金融市場群組:IPO 總募集資金、併購案件總金額、併購案件總數量、併購案件平均溢價、資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度;政治因素群組:國家貪腐指數、專利 通過率;經濟因素群組:研究發展總費用、國內生產總值(GDP)。資料截取自 CEIC (中國經濟數據庫)與Bloomberg(彭博資訊系統),資料期間為 2006 年第一季至 2015 年第一季之季資料,先分析各別因素的歷史軌跡變化與原因,再以四個迴歸分析模型分別探討整體九個變數、金融市場群組、政治群組、與經濟群組對應 變數中國創業投資基金總投資金額的影響程度。
     本研究結論包括:資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度、研究發展總費用與中國創業投資基金總投資金額有高度正相關。國家貪腐指數與中國創業投資基金總投資金額有高度負相關。IPO 總募集資金、併購案件總金額、 併購案件總數量、併購案件平均溢價、專利通過率、國內生產總額與中國創業投資基金總投資金額無顯著相關性。將自變數依性質分類為三大群組後,分別對應變數中國創業投資基金總投資金額進行迴歸分析,並比較其 Adjusted R Square,發現金融市場群組影響應變數程度最大,其次為經濟因素,影響最小的為政治因 素。
This paper discusses the venture capital activity in China through observing changes in the investment volume in an attempt to explore the influential factors. This study applies nine factors which then were classified into three groups: financial market group, including capital raised through IPO, volume of M&A, deal counts of M&A, M&A deal average premium, and degree of market-centered financial system comparing to bank-centered; politics group, including corruption perception index, patent pass rate; economics group, including research and development expenditure, gross domestic product (GDP).
     Data were retrieved from CEIC and Bloomberg with duration from 2006-2015Q1, seasonal data. This study analyzes the historical trajectory of independent factors, following by four regression analysis, including the overall impact of nine independent variables, the impact of the financial market group, politics group, and economics group on the dependent variable: the total investment volume of venture capital funds in China.
     The findings include: degree of market-centered financial system comparing to bank-centered and the research and development expenditure have highly positive correlation with total investment volume of venture capital funds in China. Corruption Perception Index has highly negative correlation with total investment volume of venture capital funds in China. Capital raised through IPO, volume of M&A, deal counts of M&A, M&A deal average premium, patent pass rate, and gross domestic production have no significant correlation with the investment volume of venture capital funds in China. After classifying the factors into three groups including financial market factors, economics factors, and politics factors, following by the comparison of adjusted R Square, the study concludes that financial market group has the highest correlation with total investment volume of venture capital funds in China, with economics group as the second and politics group being the least correlated.
致謝 3
     中文摘要 4
     ABSTRACT 5
     表目錄 7
     圖目錄 7
     第一章 緒論 8
     1.1 研究背景與研究目的 8
     1.2 研究整體框架 9
     第二章 理論綜述與研究假設 11
     2.1 創業投資基金概述 11
     2.2 中國創業投資市場分析 13
     2.3 學者對影響國家創業投資產業發展之因素研究 19
     2.3.1 經濟活動 19
     2.3.2 資本市場以證券市場為中心相對於以銀行為中心的程度 20
     2.3.3 投資者保護、公司治理與政府政策 21
     2.3.4 社會環境 21
     2.3.5 創業文化與案源 22
     2.3.6 稅收制度 22
     第三章 數據來源、研究假說與變數分析 24
     3.1 數據來源 24
     3.2 研究假說 24
     3.2.1 透過 IPO 總募集之資金 24
     3.2.2 併購案件總金額 24
     3.2.3 併購案件總數量 25
     3.2.4 併購案件平均溢價 25
     3.2.5 資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度 25
     3.2.6 國家貪腐指數 26
     3.2.7 專利通過率 26
     3.2.8 國內生產總值(GDP) 26
     3.2.9 研究發展總費用 26
     3.3 應變數與自變數歷史軌跡分析 28
     3.3.1 變數敘述統計整理表 28
     3.3.2 應變量:中國創業投資基金總投資金額 28
     3.3.3 IPO 總募集資金 29
     3.3.4 併購案件總金額 30
     3.3.5 併購案件總數量 31
     3.3.6 併購案件平均溢價 32
     3.3.7 資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度 33
     3.3.8 國家貪腐指數 34
     3.3.9 專利通過率 35
     3.3.10 國內生產總值(GDP) 36
     3.3.11 研究發展總費用 37
     第四章 迴歸分析與結果 38
     4.1 各模型迴歸分析整理 38
     4.2 九項自變數之迴歸分析-Model 1 40
     4.3 分類三大群組之迴歸分析-Model 2, Model3, Model4 44
     第五章 結論與建議 49
     5.1 結論與建議 49
     5.2 研究限制 50
     5.3 未來研究建議 50
     參考文獻 51
參考文獻 中文文獻
     1. 王長勝、范劍平(民 103),2014 年中國經濟展望和宏觀調控政策取向。
     中國與世界經濟發展報告,第 32 期,頁 2-5。
     2. 中國企業 IPO 市場統計分析報告-2014 年第三季度,博雅基金,2014 年
     10 月 27 日。取自:http://www.fundpku.com/。
     3. 艾西南(民 101),私募股權基金將開啟我國產業整合的新時代。正略鈞策
     管理諮詢顧問,2011 年 8 月 31 日。
     4. 成思危主編(民 100),中國風險投資年鑒 2011,民主與建設出版社 2011
     年 5 月第一版。
     5. 張東寶、姜力嘉 (民 95),創業投資資產特性及計量研究,深圳清華大學
     研究院, 中國高校科技與產業化(學術版) ,2006 年 S2 期。
     6. 畢務良(民 103),信託參與,專利市場將更有活力。知識產權報,2014 年
     10 月 29 日。
     7. 蔡鉞奇(民 102)。創業投資回報率及其影響因素實證研究:以中國大陸創業
     板上市企業為例(碩士論文)。取自臺灣博碩士論文系統。(系統編號:
     004646159)
     English Reference
     1. Aisner, E. J. (2000, October 24). Something Ventured, Something Gained: A European View of Venture Capital. Harvard Business School. Retrieved from http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/1600.html
     2. Bakurov. A. (2015). Venture Capital in China: investing opportunities and main challenges. École supérieure de commerce de Paris Europe, Paris.
     3. Black, S. B. & Gilson R.J. (1998). Venture capital and the structure of capital markets: banks versus stock markets. Journal of Financial Economics.
     Volume 47, Issue 3, 15 March 1998, Pages 243–277.
     4. Djankov, S., Porta, L. R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F. & Shleifer, A. Courts: the Lex Mundi Project. (2002). National Bureau of Economic Research.
     5. Desai, A. M. & Dharmapala, D. (2008). Tax and Corporate Governance: An Economic Approach. MPI Studies on Intellectual Property, Competition and Tax Law. Volume 3, 2008, pages 13-30.
     6. Freeman, J. (1999). Venture Capital as an Economy of Time. Corporate Social Capital and Liability. pages 460-479.
     7. Gompers, A. P. & Lerner. J. (1999). What drives Venture Capital Fund Raising? National Bureau of Economic Research. Pages 10-11.
     8. Gompers, A. P. & Lerner. J. -2nd (2004). The Venture Capital Cycle.
     Massachusetts Institute of Technology. ISBN 0-262-07255-6. pages 56-72.
     9. Groh. P. A., Lieser. K. & Liechtenstein. H. (2010). What makes a country attractive to VC investors? Earns and Young Global venture capital insights and trends report 2010.
     10. Groh, P. A., Lieser. K. & Liechtenstein. H. (2014). The Global Venture Capital and Private Equity Country Attractiveness Index-2014 Annual. IESE Business School and EMLYON Business School publisher.
     11. Guide to Venture Capital in Asia (2000). Asian Venture Capital Association. Retrieved from http://www.avcj.com/
     12. Jeng, A. L. & Wells, C.P. (2000). The determinants of venture capital funding: evidence across countries. Journal of Corporate Finance. Volume 6, Issue 3, 1 September 2000, Pages 241–289. DOI: 10.1016/S0929-1199 (00) 00003-1.
     13. Lerner, J. (2012), Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Why Public Efforts to Boost Entrepreneurship and Venture Capital Have Failed-and What to Do About It, U.S.A. Princeton University Press
     14. Lorenz, T. (1985). Venture Capital Today. Cambridge: Woodhead Faulkner. 15. Morris, J. (ed.) (1988). Pratt`s Guide to Venture Capital Sources (12th ed.)
     Venture Economics, Inc, Needham, MA, pages 55–61.
     16. Page, N. (2012). China Deals-A Fresh Perspective, PWC U.K. Research Report, Retrieved from: http://www.pwc.co.uk/emerging-markets/ publications/china-deals-a-fresh-perspective.html
     17. Romain, A. & Pottelsberghe de la Potterie. B van. (2004). The Economic Impact of Venture Capital. Research Institute in Management Science.
     18. Sirri, R. E. & Tufano. P. (2002). Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows. The American Finance Association. DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00066.
     19. Sorenson, O. & Stuart. T. (2001). Syndication Networks and the Spatial Distribution of Venture Capital Investments. American Journal of Sociology. Vol. 106, No. 6, pages 1546-1588.
     20. Ten Reasons to Invest in Asia (2009). J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Europe) Société à responsabilité limitée, European Bank & Business Centre. Retrieved from http://www.jpmorganassetmanagement.lu/en/showpage.aspx?pageid=98
     21. Ugaz, J. (2006-2015), Corruption Perceptions Index Report, Transparency International, Retrieved from https://www.transparency.org/
     22. Victor, W. H. (2012, October 1). What is The Difference Between Private Equity And Venture Capital? [Online forum comment-Forbes]. Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/victorhwang/2012/10/01/presidential-debate-prim er-whats-the-difference-between-private-equity-and-venture-capital/
     23. Venture Capital Report China (2014). Dow Jones Venture Source. Retrieved
     from http://images.dowjones.com/company/wp-content/ uploads/ sites/15/
     2015/01/DJX-V entureSource-4Q14-China-English-Language-version.pdf
     24. Why Invest in Asian Markets? (2015). Legal & General Group plc. Retrieved from:http://www.legalandgeneral.com/investments/news-and-insights/investm ent-knowledge/why-invest-in-asian-markets/
     25. Wright, M. (1992). Venture capital and management-led, leveraged buy-outs: A European perspective. Journal of Business Venturing. Volume 7, Issue 1, January 1992, Pages 47–71.
     網站資料
     1. 清科數據庫資料:http://research.pedaily.cn/
     2. 私募通:http://www.pedata.cn/
     3. 富時集團:http://www.ftse.com/products/home
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
企業管理研究所
102363015
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102363015
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 吳啟銘zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李品瑛zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 李品瑛zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2015en_US
dc.date.accessioned 3-Aug-2015 13:13:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 3-Aug-2015 13:13:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Aug-2015 13:13:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0102363015en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/77128-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 企業管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102363015zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文藉由觀察中國創業投資基金投入金額之變化,試圖探討影響中國大陸創業投資產業發展之因素,經由國內外期刊、文獻之歸納整理並加以判斷分析,本研究決定採用九個變數,並分類為三大群組,分別為:金融市場群組:IPO 總募集資金、併購案件總金額、併購案件總數量、併購案件平均溢價、資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度;政治因素群組:國家貪腐指數、專利 通過率;經濟因素群組:研究發展總費用、國內生產總值(GDP)。資料截取自 CEIC (中國經濟數據庫)與Bloomberg(彭博資訊系統),資料期間為 2006 年第一季至 2015 年第一季之季資料,先分析各別因素的歷史軌跡變化與原因,再以四個迴歸分析模型分別探討整體九個變數、金融市場群組、政治群組、與經濟群組對應 變數中國創業投資基金總投資金額的影響程度。
     本研究結論包括:資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度、研究發展總費用與中國創業投資基金總投資金額有高度正相關。國家貪腐指數與中國創業投資基金總投資金額有高度負相關。IPO 總募集資金、併購案件總金額、 併購案件總數量、併購案件平均溢價、專利通過率、國內生產總額與中國創業投資基金總投資金額無顯著相關性。將自變數依性質分類為三大群組後,分別對應變數中國創業投資基金總投資金額進行迴歸分析,並比較其 Adjusted R Square,發現金融市場群組影響應變數程度最大,其次為經濟因素,影響最小的為政治因 素。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This paper discusses the venture capital activity in China through observing changes in the investment volume in an attempt to explore the influential factors. This study applies nine factors which then were classified into three groups: financial market group, including capital raised through IPO, volume of M&A, deal counts of M&A, M&A deal average premium, and degree of market-centered financial system comparing to bank-centered; politics group, including corruption perception index, patent pass rate; economics group, including research and development expenditure, gross domestic product (GDP).
     Data were retrieved from CEIC and Bloomberg with duration from 2006-2015Q1, seasonal data. This study analyzes the historical trajectory of independent factors, following by four regression analysis, including the overall impact of nine independent variables, the impact of the financial market group, politics group, and economics group on the dependent variable: the total investment volume of venture capital funds in China.
     The findings include: degree of market-centered financial system comparing to bank-centered and the research and development expenditure have highly positive correlation with total investment volume of venture capital funds in China. Corruption Perception Index has highly negative correlation with total investment volume of venture capital funds in China. Capital raised through IPO, volume of M&A, deal counts of M&A, M&A deal average premium, patent pass rate, and gross domestic production have no significant correlation with the investment volume of venture capital funds in China. After classifying the factors into three groups including financial market factors, economics factors, and politics factors, following by the comparison of adjusted R Square, the study concludes that financial market group has the highest correlation with total investment volume of venture capital funds in China, with economics group as the second and politics group being the least correlated.		en_US
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 致謝 3
     中文摘要 4
     ABSTRACT 5
     表目錄 7
     圖目錄 7
     第一章 緒論 8
     1.1 研究背景與研究目的 8
     1.2 研究整體框架 9
     第二章 理論綜述與研究假設 11
     2.1 創業投資基金概述 11
     2.2 中國創業投資市場分析 13
     2.3 學者對影響國家創業投資產業發展之因素研究 19
     2.3.1 經濟活動 19
     2.3.2 資本市場以證券市場為中心相對於以銀行為中心的程度 20
     2.3.3 投資者保護、公司治理與政府政策 21
     2.3.4 社會環境 21
     2.3.5 創業文化與案源 22
     2.3.6 稅收制度 22
     第三章 數據來源、研究假說與變數分析 24
     3.1 數據來源 24
     3.2 研究假說 24
     3.2.1 透過 IPO 總募集之資金 24
     3.2.2 併購案件總金額 24
     3.2.3 併購案件總數量 25
     3.2.4 併購案件平均溢價 25
     3.2.5 資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度 25
     3.2.6 國家貪腐指數 26
     3.2.7 專利通過率 26
     3.2.8 國內生產總值(GDP) 26
     3.2.9 研究發展總費用 26
     3.3 應變數與自變數歷史軌跡分析 28
     3.3.1 變數敘述統計整理表 28
     3.3.2 應變量:中國創業投資基金總投資金額 28
     3.3.3 IPO 總募集資金 29
     3.3.4 併購案件總金額 30
     3.3.5 併購案件總數量 31
     3.3.6 併購案件平均溢價 32
     3.3.7 資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度 33
     3.3.8 國家貪腐指數 34
     3.3.9 專利通過率 35
     3.3.10 國內生產總值(GDP) 36
     3.3.11 研究發展總費用 37
     第四章 迴歸分析與結果 38
     4.1 各模型迴歸分析整理 38
     4.2 九項自變數之迴歸分析-Model 1 40
     4.3 分類三大群組之迴歸分析-Model 2, Model3, Model4 44
     第五章 結論與建議 49
     5.1 結論與建議 49
     5.2 研究限制 50
     5.3 未來研究建議 50
     參考文獻 51		-
dc.description.tableofcontents 致謝 3
     中文摘要 4
     ABSTRACT 5
     表目錄 7
     圖目錄 7
     第一章 緒論 8
     1.1 研究背景與研究目的 8
     1.2 研究整體框架 9
     第二章 理論綜述與研究假設 11
     2.1 創業投資基金概述 11
     2.2 中國創業投資市場分析 13
     2.3 學者對影響國家創業投資產業發展之因素研究 19
     2.3.1 經濟活動 19
     2.3.2 資本市場以證券市場為中心相對於以銀行為中心的程度 20
     2.3.3 投資者保護、公司治理與政府政策 21
     2.3.4 社會環境 21
     2.3.5 創業文化與案源 22
     2.3.6 稅收制度 22
     第三章 數據來源、研究假說與變數分析 24
     3.1 數據來源 24
     3.2 研究假說 24
     3.2.1 透過 IPO 總募集之資金 24
     3.2.2 併購案件總金額 24
     3.2.3 併購案件總數量 25
     3.2.4 併購案件平均溢價 25
     3.2.5 資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度 25
     3.2.6 國家貪腐指數 26
     3.2.7 專利通過率 26
     3.2.8 國內生產總值(GDP) 26
     3.2.9 研究發展總費用 26
     3.3 應變數與自變數歷史軌跡分析 28
     3.3.1 變數敘述統計整理表 28
     3.3.2 應變量:中國創業投資基金總投資金額 28
     3.3.3 IPO 總募集資金 29
     3.3.4 併購案件總金額 30
     3.3.5 併購案件總數量 31
     3.3.6 併購案件平均溢價 32
     3.3.7 資本市場以證券市場為中心相較於以銀行為中心的程度 33
     3.3.8 國家貪腐指數 34
     3.3.9 專利通過率 35
     3.3.10 國內生產總值(GDP) 36
     3.3.11 研究發展總費用 37
     第四章 迴歸分析與結果 38
     4.1 各模型迴歸分析整理 38
     4.2 九項自變數之迴歸分析-Model 1 40
     4.3 分類三大群組之迴歸分析-Model 2, Model3, Model4 44
     第五章 結論與建議 49
     5.1 結論與建議 49
     5.2 研究限制 50
     5.3 未來研究建議 50
     參考文獻 51		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102363015en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 創業投資zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中國zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投資額zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Venture Capitalen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Chinaen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) investment volumeen_US
dc.title (題名) 影響中國創業投資產業發展之因素探討zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Influential Factors of Venture Capital Activity in Chinaen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文文獻
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     管理諮詢顧問,2011 年 8 月 31 日。
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     004646159)
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     網站資料
     1. 清科數據庫資料:http://research.pedaily.cn/
     2. 私募通:http://www.pedata.cn/
     3. 富時集團:http://www.ftse.com/products/home		zh_TW