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題名 通貨膨脹率指標與內生成長：小型開放經濟的分析
Inflation Targeting and Endogenous Growth: An Analysis of Small Open Economy作者 王敬惟
Wang, Ching Wei貢獻者 賴景昌
Lai, Ching Chong
王敬惟
Wang, Ching Wei關鍵詞 通貨膨脹率指標
內生成長
均衡不確定性
勞動外生
勞動內生
Inflation Targeting
Endogenous Growth
Indeterminacy
Inelastic Labor Supply
Elastic Labor Supply日期 2015 上傳時間 3-Aug-2015 13:36:52 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文建立一個小型開放經濟的內生成長模型，並且以貨幣進入生產函數的方式，將貨幣引入經濟體系。據此，我們分別探討勞動外生及勞動內生的狀況下，央行以釘住通貨膨脹率作為貨幣政策，民眾的信念是否可以造成景氣的波動，並探討央行採行未預料到的貨幣政策及預料到的貨幣政策會如何影響經濟體系相關變數的成長率。 根據本文的分析，我們發現在勞動外生的狀況下，通貨膨脹率與Tobin q值呈現負向關係，由此我們可以推論，提高通貨膨脹率目標將對經濟成長率造成負面的影響。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策時，經濟體系呈現均衡的確定性，表示民眾的信念不會造成景氣的波動。若央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現不同比例的變動，且變動方向不確定，需端視實質餘額成長率下降的效果與通貨膨脹率調整的效果何者較大才可決定。在政策宣示的部分，宣告期間的長短僅影響經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率的跳動幅度，不影響動態調整路徑的形狀。 在勞動內生化的狀況下，通貨膨脹率增減不影響Tobin q值的變動，故提高通貨膨脹率目標不會影響經濟成長率。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策，勞動需求線斜率大於勞動供給線斜率時，經濟體系呈現均衡的不確定性，表示民眾的信念可以造成景氣的波動在央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現同方向、同比例變動。最後，政策宣示部分，政策宣告期間的長短會造成經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率呈現不同的動態調整路徑。 參考文獻 Barro, R. J. (1990), “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 98: 103-125Benhabib, J., and Farmer, R. E. (1994). “Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns.” Journal of Economic Theory 63: 19-41.Chang, W. Y., and Lai, C. C. (2000). “Anticipated Inflation in a Monetary Economy with Endogenous Growth.” Economica 67: 399-417.Chin, C. T., Guo, J. T., and Lai, C. C. (2009). “Macroeconomic (In) stability under Real Interest Rate Targeting.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 33: 1631-1638.Chin, C. T., Guo, J. T., and Lai, C. C. (2012). “A Note on Indeterminacy and Investment Adjustment Costs in an Endogenously Growing Small Open Economy.” Macroeconomic Dynamics 16: 438-450.Gylfason, T., and Herbertsson, T. T. (2001). “Does inflation matter for growth?” .Japan and the World Economy 13: 405-428.Hasan, M. Aynul, and Syed F. Mahmud. (1993). “Is Money an Omitted Variable in the Production Function? Some Further Results.” Empirical Economics 18: 431-445.Hayashi, F. (1982). “Tobin`s Marginal Q and Average Q: A Neoclassical Interpretation.” Econometrica 50: 213-224.Juster, F. Thomas, and Frank P. Stafford. (1991). “The Allocation of Time: Empirical Findings, Behavioral Models, and Problems of Measurement.” Journal of Economic Literature 29: 471-522.Lai, C. C., Chen, S. H., and Shaw, M. F. (2005). “Nominal Income Targeting versus Money Growth Targeting in an Endogenously Growing Economy.” Economics Letters 86: 359-366.Lai, C. C., and Chin, C. T. (2010). “(In) determinacy, Increasing Returns, and the Optimality of the Friedman Rule in an Endogenously Growing Open Economy.” Economic Theory 44: 69-100.Lai, C. C., and Chin, C. T. (2013). “Monetary Rules and Endogenous Growth in an Open Economy.” Macroeconomic Dynamics 17: 431-463.Lucas, R. E. (1988). “On the Mechanics of Economic Development.” Journal of Monetary Economics 22: 3-42.Mansoorian, A., and Mohsin, M. (2006). “On the Employment, Investment and Current Account Effects of Inflation.” Journal of International Economics 70: 296-313.Pecorino, P. (1995). “Inflation, Human Capital Accumulation and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Macroeconomics 17: 533-542.Romer, P. M. (1986). “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 94: 1002-1037.Shaw, M. F., Lai, C. C., and Chang, W. Y. (2005). “Anticipated Policy and Endogenous Growth in a Small Open Monetary Economy.” Journal of International Money and Finance 24: 719-743.Sidrauski, M. (1967). “Rational Choice and Patterns of Growth in a Monetary Economy.” American Economic Review 57: 534-544.Sinai, Allen, and Houston H. Stokes (1972). “Real Money Balances: An Omitted Variable from the Production Function?” The Review of Economics and Statistics 54: 290-296.Solow, R. M. (1956). “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 70: 65-94.Stockman, A. C. (1981). “Anticipated Inflation and the Capital Stock in a Cash-in-Advance Economy.” Journal of Monetary Economics 8: 387-393.Suen, M. H., and Yip, C. K. (2005). “Superneutrality, Indeterminacy and Endogenous Growth.” Journal of Macroeconomics 27: 579-595.Turnovsky, S. J. (1996). “Fiscal Policy, Growth, and Macroeconomic Performance in a Small Open Economy.” Journal of International Economics 40: 41-66.Wang, P., and Yip, C. K. (1992). “Examining the Long-Run Effect of Money on Economic Growth.” Journal of Macroeconomics 14: 359-369.Zhang, J. (1996). “A Simple Pecuniary Model of Money and Growth with Transactions Cost.” Journal of Macroeconomics 18: 127-137. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
102258025資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102258025 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 賴景昌 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lai, Ching Chong en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 王敬惟 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wang, Ching Wei en_US dc.creator (作者) 王敬惟 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wang, Ching Wei en_US dc.date (日期) 2015 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-Aug-2015 13:36:52 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-Aug-2015 13:36:52 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Aug-2015 13:36:52 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0102258025 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/77274 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102258025 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文建立一個小型開放經濟的內生成長模型，並且以貨幣進入生產函數的方式，將貨幣引入經濟體系。據此，我們分別探討勞動外生及勞動內生的狀況下，央行以釘住通貨膨脹率作為貨幣政策，民眾的信念是否可以造成景氣的波動，並探討央行採行未預料到的貨幣政策及預料到的貨幣政策會如何影響經濟體系相關變數的成長率。 根據本文的分析，我們發現在勞動外生的狀況下，通貨膨脹率與Tobin q值呈現負向關係，由此我們可以推論，提高通貨膨脹率目標將對經濟成長率造成負面的影響。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策時，經濟體系呈現均衡的確定性，表示民眾的信念不會造成景氣的波動。若央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現不同比例的變動，且變動方向不確定，需端視實質餘額成長率下降的效果與通貨膨脹率調整的效果何者較大才可決定。在政策宣示的部分，宣告期間的長短僅影響經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率的跳動幅度，不影響動態調整路徑的形狀。 在勞動內生化的狀況下，通貨膨脹率增減不影響Tobin q值的變動，故提高通貨膨脹率目標不會影響經濟成長率。當央行採取通貨膨脹率指標作為貨幣政策，勞動需求線斜率大於勞動供給線斜率時，經濟體系呈現均衡的不確定性，表示民眾的信念可以造成景氣的波動在央行調整通貨膨脹率目標時，名目貨幣供給成長率和通貨膨脹率呈現同方向、同比例變動。最後，政策宣示部分，政策宣告期間的長短會造成經濟成長率、實質資本成長率及實質貨幣餘額成長率呈現不同的動態調整路徑。 zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 · · ·· · · · · · · · · · · · 1 第一節 研究動機與文獻回顧 · · · · · · ·· 1 第二節 本文架構 · · · · · · · · · · · · 4第二章 理論模型 · · · · · · · · · · · · · 5 第一節 代表性個人決策 · · · · · · · · · 5 第二節 政府與中央銀行 · · · · · · · · · 7 第三節 總體經濟模型 · · · · · · · · · · 8第三章 勞動外生 · · · · · · · · · · · · 10 第一節 均衡成長與通貨膨脹率指標 · · ·· 10 第二節 動態傳遞與預料到的貨幣政策 · · 14第四章 勞動內生 · · · · · · · · · · · 23 第一節 均衡成長與通貨膨脹率指標 · ·· 23 第二節 動態傳遞與預料到的貨幣政策 · · 31第五章 結論 · · · · · · · · · · · · · 46附錄 Ａ · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 47參考文獻 · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · 48 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1408384 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102258025 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 通貨膨脹率指標 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 內生成長 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 均衡不確定性 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 勞動外生 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 勞動內生 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Inflation Targeting en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Endogenous Growth en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Indeterminacy en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Inelastic Labor Supply en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Elastic Labor Supply en_US dc.title (題名) 通貨膨脹率指標與內生成長：小型開放經濟的分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Inflation Targeting and Endogenous Growth: An Analysis of Small Open Economy en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barro, R. J. (1990), “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 98: 103-125Benhabib, J., and Farmer, R. E. (1994). “Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns.” Journal of Economic Theory 63: 19-41.Chang, W. Y., and Lai, C. C. (2000). “Anticipated Inflation in a Monetary Economy with Endogenous Growth.” Economica 67: 399-417.Chin, C. T., Guo, J. T., and Lai, C. C. (2009). “Macroeconomic (In) stability under Real Interest Rate Targeting.” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 33: 1631-1638.Chin, C. T., Guo, J. T., and Lai, C. C. (2012). “A Note on Indeterminacy and Investment Adjustment Costs in an Endogenously Growing Small Open Economy.” Macroeconomic Dynamics 16: 438-450.Gylfason, T., and Herbertsson, T. T. (2001). “Does inflation matter for growth?” .Japan and the World Economy 13: 405-428.Hasan, M. Aynul, and Syed F. Mahmud. (1993). “Is Money an Omitted Variable in the Production Function? Some Further Results.” Empirical Economics 18: 431-445.Hayashi, F. (1982). “Tobin`s Marginal Q and Average Q: A Neoclassical Interpretation.” Econometrica 50: 213-224.Juster, F. Thomas, and Frank P. Stafford. (1991). “The Allocation of Time: Empirical Findings, Behavioral Models, and Problems of Measurement.” Journal of Economic Literature 29: 471-522.Lai, C. C., Chen, S. H., and Shaw, M. F. (2005). “Nominal Income Targeting versus Money Growth Targeting in an Endogenously Growing Economy.” Economics Letters 86: 359-366.Lai, C. C., and Chin, C. T. (2010). “(In) determinacy, Increasing Returns, and the Optimality of the Friedman Rule in an Endogenously Growing Open Economy.” Economic Theory 44: 69-100.Lai, C. C., and Chin, C. T. (2013). “Monetary Rules and Endogenous Growth in an Open Economy.” Macroeconomic Dynamics 17: 431-463.Lucas, R. E. (1988). “On the Mechanics of Economic Development.” Journal of Monetary Economics 22: 3-42.Mansoorian, A., and Mohsin, M. (2006). “On the Employment, Investment and Current Account Effects of Inflation.” Journal of International Economics 70: 296-313.Pecorino, P. (1995). “Inflation, Human Capital Accumulation and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Macroeconomics 17: 533-542.Romer, P. M. (1986). “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth.” Journal of Political Economy 94: 1002-1037.Shaw, M. F., Lai, C. C., and Chang, W. Y. (2005). “Anticipated Policy and Endogenous Growth in a Small Open Monetary Economy.” Journal of International Money and Finance 24: 719-743.Sidrauski, M. (1967). “Rational Choice and Patterns of Growth in a Monetary Economy.” American Economic Review 57: 534-544.Sinai, Allen, and Houston H. Stokes (1972). “Real Money Balances: An Omitted Variable from the Production Function?” The Review of Economics and Statistics 54: 290-296.Solow, R. M. (1956). “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 70: 65-94.Stockman, A. C. (1981). “Anticipated Inflation and the Capital Stock in a Cash-in-Advance Economy.” Journal of Monetary Economics 8: 387-393.Suen, M. H., and Yip, C. K. (2005). “Superneutrality, Indeterminacy and Endogenous Growth.” Journal of Macroeconomics 27: 579-595.Turnovsky, S. J. (1996). “Fiscal Policy, Growth, and Macroeconomic Performance in a Small Open Economy.” Journal of International Economics 40: 41-66.Wang, P., and Yip, C. K. (1992). “Examining the Long-Run Effect of Money on Economic Growth.” Journal of Macroeconomics 14: 359-369.Zhang, J. (1996). “A Simple Pecuniary Model of Money and Growth with Transactions Cost.” Journal of Macroeconomics 18: 127-137. zh_TW
