1. NCCU Academic Hub
  2. Publications
  3. College of Social Science
  4. Theses
  5. Item

Publications-Theses

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

NCCU Library

Citation Infomation

Related Publications in TAIR

題名 關稅訊息的總體效果
Macroeconomic Effects of News on Tariff
作者 劉至誠
Liu, Chih Cheng
貢獻者 黃俞寧
Hwang, Yu Ning
劉至誠
Liu, Chih Cheng
關鍵詞 關稅
訊息
動態隨機一般化均衡
小型開放經濟
價個僵固
Tariff
News
DSGE
Small open economy
Nominal rigidity
日期 2015
上傳時間 24-Aug-2015 10:22:49 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文建構一個小型開放的經濟體系，價格具有僵固性的 DSGE 模型來探討提早釋出的關稅調降訊息所造成總體經濟面的影響。在政府簽訂貿易協定來降低關稅的訊息藉由媒體釋出時，同時民眾具理性預期的假設下，家計單位會因這樣的訊息而改變對未來的預期，在關稅還未實際調降時便改變行為決策。我們研究在不同的協商可能結果: (1)談判破裂，貿易協定未如預期簽訂。(2)談判成功，但貿易協定簽訂的結果比當初訊息所透露的降得更多或較少。(3)談判成功，並完全實現當初訊息的內容。(4)簽訂的時間高於預期，導致實行的時間延期。從結果中我們發現，提早釋出的關稅訊息會抑制民眾的消費和投資，在短期會立即造成需求面的負向衝擊。而降低關稅所帶來的市場活絡，會等到真正調降的時後才出現。所以越早釋出關稅調降的訊息，會造成經濟體系所需付出“等待政策實行的成本”越大。
There is global trend of economic integration across the world by removing the trade barrier. While the free trade agreements normally include the tariff reduction, the negotiations of the agreement may take a long time, and in some cases, the negotiation may fail. Therefore, the tariff reduction’s effects on the economy can be different if it is realized as expectation or not. With a small open economy DSGE model, this paper examines the effects of news preannouncement on tariffs. With the assumption of rational expectation, households will change their expectation when the news of tariff decrement is preannounced. However, whether or not the news on tariffs can be realized as expectation will lead to different dynamics. In this study, we consider various plausible scenarios: (1) If negotiation fails, thus the news on tariff reduction is not realized (2) If negotiation succeeds, but the amount of actual decrement is more or less than people originally expected. (3) Negotiation succeeds and the content of news is fully
realized. (4) Negotiation succeeds, but it takes more time than expected to be realized, thus the policy implementation is postponed. Our study reveals that the news preannouncement restrains consumption and investment before the negotiation is completed, and leads to a negative impact on the economy in the short run. The benefits of the tariff decrement appear if the policy is
actually implemented as expected. However, the economy suffers more if the negotiation takes too much time after the news is released.
參考文獻 Brock, P. L., 1986. “Permanent and Temporary Tariff Reductions”. Unpublished Working Paper.
Beaudry, P., Portier, F., 2006. “Stock prices, news, and economic fluctuations”. The American Economic Review, Vol.96, No. 4, pp.1293–1307.
Beaudry, P., Portier, F., 2007. “When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings ? ”. Journal of Economic Theory, Vol.135, pp.458 – 477.
Calvo, G., 1983. “Staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.12, pp.383–398.
Clarida, R., Gali, J. and Gertler, M., 1999. “The science of monetary policy: a new Keynesian perspective”. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 37, pp.1661–1707.
Eichengreen, B.J., 1981. “A dynamic model of tariffs, output, and employment under flexible exchange rate”. Journal of International Economics, Vol.11, pp.341–359.
Fender, J. and Yip, C., 2000. “Tariffs and exchange rate dynamics redux”. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol 19, pp.633–655.
Fujiwara, I., Hirose, Y. and Shintani, M., 2011. “Can news be a major source of aggregate fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE approach”. Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, Vol.43(1), pp.1(28).
Gali, J., Monacelli, T., 2000. “Optimal monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small
open economy”. Working Paper, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Boston College.
Ganelli, G., Tervala, J., 2015. “Value of WTO trade agreements in a New Keynesian Model”.
International Monetary Fund WP/15/37.
Guido L., 2011. “News and aggregate demand shocks”. Annual review of economic, pp.537–557.
Guo, J.T., Sirbu, A,I. and Weder, M., 2015. “News about aggregate demand and the business cycle”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.72, pp.83(14).
Hooper, P., Marquez, J., 1995. “Exchange rates, prices, and external adjustment in the United States and Japan”. In: Kenen, P. (Ed.), Understanding Interdependence. Princeton University Press, Princeton, pp.107–168.
Hwang, Y.N., Turnovsky, S.J., 2013. “Exchange rate pass-through and the effects of tariffs on economic performance and welfare”. Journal of International Money and Finance.
Jaimovich, N., Rebelo, S., 2009. “Can news about the future drive the business cycle?”. American Economic Review, Vol.99:4, pp.1097–1118.
Konan, D.E., Maskus, K.E., 2000. “Joint trade liberalization and tax reform in a small open economy: the case of Egypt”. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.61, pp.365–392.25
Lane, P and Milesi, F.G., 2001. “Long term capital movements”. Working Paper, Trinity
College Dublin and IMF. Lopez, S. D., 2000. Work in progress, Bank of Spain.
Martins, J., Scarpetta, S., Pilat, D., 1996. “Mark-up pricing, market structure and the business
cycle”. OECD Economic Studies, Vol 27, pp.71–105.
Mundell, R., 1961. “Flexible exchange rates and employment policy”. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, Vol.27, pp.509–517.
Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., 1995. “Exchange rate dynamics redux”. Journal of Political Economy, Vol.103, pp.624-660.
Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., 2000.“New directions for stochastic open economy models”. Journal of International Economics, Vol.50, pp.117-153.
Wang. P., 2012. “Understanding expectation-driven fluctuations: a labor-market approach”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 44, No. 2-3
Pigou, A.C., (1926), “Industrial Fluctuations”, MacMillan, London.
Reitz, S., Slopek, Q.D., 2005. “Macroeconomic effects of tariffs: Insights from a New Open Economy Macroeconomics Model”. Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik, Vol. 141 (2), pp.285–311.
Kollmann, R., 2001a. “The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation”. Journal of International
Economics, Vol.55, pp.243–262.
Kollmann, R., 2002. “Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.49, pp.989–1015.
Rotemberg, J., Woodford, M., 1997. “An optimization-based econometric framework for the evaluation of monetary policy”. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol.12, pp.297–346.
Sen, P., Turnovsky, S.J., 1989. “Tariffs, capital accumulation, and the current account in a small open economy”. International Economic Review, Vol.30, pp.811–831.
Sims, C., 2000. “Second order accurate solution of discrete time dynamic equilibrium models”. Working paper, Economics Department, Princeton University.
Stéphane, A., Paul G. and Shen G., 2013. “Nominal rigidities, monetary policy and pigou cycles “. The Economic Journal, Vol.123, pp.455–473.
Taylor, J., 1993a. “Discretion versus policy rules in practice”. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39, pp.195–214.
Taylor, J., 1993b. “Macroeconomic Policy in a World Economy”. Norton, New York
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
102258038
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102258038
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 黃俞寧zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Hwang, Yu Ningen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 劉至誠zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Liu, Chih Chengen_US
dc.creator (作者) 劉至誠zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Liu, Chih Chengen_US
dc.date (日期) 2015en_US
dc.date.accessioned 24-Aug-2015 10:22:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 24-Aug-2015 10:22:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 24-Aug-2015 10:22:49 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0102258038en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/77900-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102258038zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文建構一個小型開放的經濟體系，價格具有僵固性的 DSGE 模型來探討提早釋出的關稅調降訊息所造成總體經濟面的影響。在政府簽訂貿易協定來降低關稅的訊息藉由媒體釋出時，同時民眾具理性預期的假設下，家計單位會因這樣的訊息而改變對未來的預期，在關稅還未實際調降時便改變行為決策。我們研究在不同的協商可能結果: (1)談判破裂，貿易協定未如預期簽訂。(2)談判成功，但貿易協定簽訂的結果比當初訊息所透露的降得更多或較少。(3)談判成功，並完全實現當初訊息的內容。(4)簽訂的時間高於預期，導致實行的時間延期。從結果中我們發現，提早釋出的關稅訊息會抑制民眾的消費和投資，在短期會立即造成需求面的負向衝擊。而降低關稅所帶來的市場活絡，會等到真正調降的時後才出現。所以越早釋出關稅調降的訊息，會造成經濟體系所需付出“等待政策實行的成本”越大。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) There is global trend of economic integration across the world by removing the trade barrier. While the free trade agreements normally include the tariff reduction, the negotiations of the agreement may take a long time, and in some cases, the negotiation may fail. Therefore, the tariff reduction’s effects on the economy can be different if it is realized as expectation or not. With a small open economy DSGE model, this paper examines the effects of news preannouncement on tariffs. With the assumption of rational expectation, households will change their expectation when the news of tariff decrement is preannounced. However, whether or not the news on tariffs can be realized as expectation will lead to different dynamics. In this study, we consider various plausible scenarios: (1) If negotiation fails, thus the news on tariff reduction is not realized (2) If negotiation succeeds, but the amount of actual decrement is more or less than people originally expected. (3) Negotiation succeeds and the content of news is fully
realized. (4) Negotiation succeeds, but it takes more time than expected to be realized, thus the policy implementation is postponed. Our study reveals that the news preannouncement restrains consumption and investment before the negotiation is completed, and leads to a negative impact on the economy in the short run. The benefits of the tariff decrement appear if the policy is
actually implemented as expected. However, the economy suffers more if the negotiation takes too much time after the news is released.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 1.Introduction..........................................2
2. Literature review....................................3
3.Model.................................................7
3.1 Goods market........................................7
3.2 Firms...............................................7
3.2.1 Final goods producer .............................7
3.2.2 Intermediate goods firms..........................9
3.3 The representative household ......................12
3.4 Tariff and government..............................15
3.5 Central bank.......................................16
3.6 Market cleaning condition .........................16
3.7 Exogenous variables................................17
4. Calibrated parameters...............................17
5. Analysis............................................19
5.1 Case 1: Tariff decrement with and without preannouncement........................................20
5.2 Case 2: The time news on tariff reduction is released before implementation..................................21
5.3 Case 3: Policy delay ..............................21
5.4 Case 4: The tariff reduction is realized unexpectedly (news is unrealized or is realized at the size higher or
lower than expectation) ...............................22
6. Conclusion..........................................22
Reference..............................................24
Table .................................................26
Figure.................................................28
Appendix ..............................................35		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1439268 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102258038en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 關稅zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 訊息zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態隨機一般化均衡zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 小型開放經濟zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 價個僵固zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tariffen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Newsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) DSGEen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Small open economyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Nominal rigidityen_US
dc.title (題名) 關稅訊息的總體效果zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Macroeconomic Effects of News on Tariffen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brock, P. L., 1986. “Permanent and Temporary Tariff Reductions”. Unpublished Working Paper.
Beaudry, P., Portier, F., 2006. “Stock prices, news, and economic fluctuations”. The American Economic Review, Vol.96, No. 4, pp.1293–1307.
Beaudry, P., Portier, F., 2007. “When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings ? ”. Journal of Economic Theory, Vol.135, pp.458 – 477.
Calvo, G., 1983. “Staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.12, pp.383–398.
Clarida, R., Gali, J. and Gertler, M., 1999. “The science of monetary policy: a new Keynesian perspective”. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 37, pp.1661–1707.
Eichengreen, B.J., 1981. “A dynamic model of tariffs, output, and employment under flexible exchange rate”. Journal of International Economics, Vol.11, pp.341–359.
Fender, J. and Yip, C., 2000. “Tariffs and exchange rate dynamics redux”. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol 19, pp.633–655.
Fujiwara, I., Hirose, Y. and Shintani, M., 2011. “Can news be a major source of aggregate fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE approach”. Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, Vol.43(1), pp.1(28).
Gali, J., Monacelli, T., 2000. “Optimal monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small
open economy”. Working Paper, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Boston College.
Ganelli, G., Tervala, J., 2015. “Value of WTO trade agreements in a New Keynesian Model”.
International Monetary Fund WP/15/37.
Guido L., 2011. “News and aggregate demand shocks”. Annual review of economic, pp.537–557.
Guo, J.T., Sirbu, A,I. and Weder, M., 2015. “News about aggregate demand and the business cycle”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.72, pp.83(14).
Hooper, P., Marquez, J., 1995. “Exchange rates, prices, and external adjustment in the United States and Japan”. In: Kenen, P. (Ed.), Understanding Interdependence. Princeton University Press, Princeton, pp.107–168.
Hwang, Y.N., Turnovsky, S.J., 2013. “Exchange rate pass-through and the effects of tariffs on economic performance and welfare”. Journal of International Money and Finance.
Jaimovich, N., Rebelo, S., 2009. “Can news about the future drive the business cycle?”. American Economic Review, Vol.99:4, pp.1097–1118.
Konan, D.E., Maskus, K.E., 2000. “Joint trade liberalization and tax reform in a small open economy: the case of Egypt”. Journal of Development Economics, Vol.61, pp.365–392.25
Lane, P and Milesi, F.G., 2001. “Long term capital movements”. Working Paper, Trinity
College Dublin and IMF. Lopez, S. D., 2000. Work in progress, Bank of Spain.
Martins, J., Scarpetta, S., Pilat, D., 1996. “Mark-up pricing, market structure and the business
cycle”. OECD Economic Studies, Vol 27, pp.71–105.
Mundell, R., 1961. “Flexible exchange rates and employment policy”. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, Vol.27, pp.509–517.
Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., 1995. “Exchange rate dynamics redux”. Journal of Political Economy, Vol.103, pp.624-660.
Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., 2000.“New directions for stochastic open economy models”. Journal of International Economics, Vol.50, pp.117-153.
Wang. P., 2012. “Understanding expectation-driven fluctuations: a labor-market approach”. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 44, No. 2-3
Pigou, A.C., (1926), “Industrial Fluctuations”, MacMillan, London.
Reitz, S., Slopek, Q.D., 2005. “Macroeconomic effects of tariffs: Insights from a New Open Economy Macroeconomics Model”. Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik, Vol. 141 (2), pp.285–311.
Kollmann, R., 2001a. “The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation”. Journal of International
Economics, Vol.55, pp.243–262.
Kollmann, R., 2002. “Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.49, pp.989–1015.
Rotemberg, J., Woodford, M., 1997. “An optimization-based econometric framework for the evaluation of monetary policy”. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol.12, pp.297–346.
Sen, P., Turnovsky, S.J., 1989. “Tariffs, capital accumulation, and the current account in a small open economy”. International Economic Review, Vol.30, pp.811–831.
Sims, C., 2000. “Second order accurate solution of discrete time dynamic equilibrium models”. Working paper, Economics Department, Princeton University.
Stéphane, A., Paul G. and Shen G., 2013. “Nominal rigidities, monetary policy and pigou cycles “. The Economic Journal, Vol.123, pp.455–473.
Taylor, J., 1993a. “Discretion versus policy rules in practice”. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39, pp.195–214.
Taylor, J., 1993b. “Macroeconomic Policy in a World Economy”. Norton, New York		zh_TW