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題名 博彩業對房價的影響 – 以澳門為例
A Stduy of Lead-Lag Relationship Between Housing Price and Gambling Industry – The Case of Macau
作者 劉家寶
貢獻者 林左裕
劉家寶
關鍵詞 澳門
博彩業
住宅價格
因果關係
Macau
Gambling Industry
Housing Price
Granger Causality
日期 2015
上傳時間 24-Aug-2015 10:41:53 (UTC+8)
摘要 自2002年，澳門政府開放賭權後，博彩業成為澳門重要的經濟命脈，伴隨著澳門經濟迅速發展，澳門住宅價格亦因此高速飛漲。故此，本研究係以澳門為主要研究對象，探討自澳門政府批出三份博彩經營權後，總體經濟、博彩業與澳門主住宅市間之關係。選取二零零一年第一季至二零一四年第四季之季資料，運用單根檢定、因果關係檢定與共整合檢定等研究方法進行實證分析，檢定變數間的因果關係是否有長短期均衡關係與是否有領先落後的效果。

根據實證結果顯示，存款利率、外來投資金額、外地僱員及飯店入住率領先住宅價格之變動，所得及博彩稅收與住宅價格則呈現雙向因果關係，而外來投資金額、外地僱員、飯店入住率皆屬於博彩旅遊相關之變數，顯示博彩業蓬勃發展能推動澳門住宅價格，使房價高漲。此外，博彩稅收、外來投資金額、外地僱員及飯店入住率皆對所得具有單向影響，故此，可推斷博彩業開放後為澳門帶來巨大的經濟衝擊。另一方面，澳門經濟發展高度依賴博彩業，中小企業亦因租金持續高漲、人力資源短缺等問題，面臨極大的成本壓力，嚴重排擠中小企業生存空間。
In the year of 2002, after the gambling are allowing by the government in Macau, gambling has already become a pillar industry. Accompanying with the rapid development of economy, housing price has risen at high speed in Macau. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the research of interactive relationship between the real estate market, macroeconomic and gambling industry variables on the basis of Granger causality test since the gambling concession was granted out to three companies. Our sample period starts from Q1 of 2001 to Q4 of 2014 with quarterly data. The research uses ADF Test, Granger Causality Test, and Cointegration Test model that we verify the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the real estate prices. The paper hopes to find out that whether the long-term steady changes between the real estate market and macroeconomic variables will be a leading or lagging effect.

The empirical result shows that, deposits rate, foreign direct investment (FDI), non-resident workers (NRW) and hotel occupancy rate (HOR), are in the lead of variation of housing price, income and tax revenue from gaming presents a causal relationship with housing price. FDI, NRW and HOR belong to the variations of the gambling industry which reveal flourishing gambling industry cam promote the housing price in Macau. Moreover, tax revenue from gaming, FDI, NRW and HOR leads income. Thus, it can infer after the gambling are allowed, it brings a great impact on the economy in Macau. On the other hand, the economy of Macau too dependent on gambling. Medium-sized and small enterprises face lot of cost pressure such as the raising rent and short of hands, so that excluding vivo sphere of medium-sized and enterprises.
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蔡育政，2009，「房地產價格因素之研究：以臺中市北屯區、西屯區、南屯區、中區、東區為例」，朝陽科技大學財務金融系碩士論文。
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政研究所
102257034
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102257034
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 劉家寶zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 劉家寶zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2015en_US
dc.date.accessioned 24-Aug-2015 10:41:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 24-Aug-2015 10:41:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 24-Aug-2015 10:41:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0102257034en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/77926-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102257034zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 自2002年，澳門政府開放賭權後，博彩業成為澳門重要的經濟命脈，伴隨著澳門經濟迅速發展，澳門住宅價格亦因此高速飛漲。故此，本研究係以澳門為主要研究對象，探討自澳門政府批出三份博彩經營權後，總體經濟、博彩業與澳門主住宅市間之關係。選取二零零一年第一季至二零一四年第四季之季資料，運用單根檢定、因果關係檢定與共整合檢定等研究方法進行實證分析，檢定變數間的因果關係是否有長短期均衡關係與是否有領先落後的效果。

根據實證結果顯示，存款利率、外來投資金額、外地僱員及飯店入住率領先住宅價格之變動，所得及博彩稅收與住宅價格則呈現雙向因果關係，而外來投資金額、外地僱員、飯店入住率皆屬於博彩旅遊相關之變數，顯示博彩業蓬勃發展能推動澳門住宅價格，使房價高漲。此外，博彩稅收、外來投資金額、外地僱員及飯店入住率皆對所得具有單向影響，故此，可推斷博彩業開放後為澳門帶來巨大的經濟衝擊。另一方面，澳門經濟發展高度依賴博彩業，中小企業亦因租金持續高漲、人力資源短缺等問題，面臨極大的成本壓力，嚴重排擠中小企業生存空間。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In the year of 2002, after the gambling are allowing by the government in Macau, gambling has already become a pillar industry. Accompanying with the rapid development of economy, housing price has risen at high speed in Macau. Therefore, this paper aims to investigate the research of interactive relationship between the real estate market, macroeconomic and gambling industry variables on the basis of Granger causality test since the gambling concession was granted out to three companies. Our sample period starts from Q1 of 2001 to Q4 of 2014 with quarterly data. The research uses ADF Test, Granger Causality Test, and Cointegration Test model that we verify the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the real estate prices. The paper hopes to find out that whether the long-term steady changes between the real estate market and macroeconomic variables will be a leading or lagging effect.

The empirical result shows that, deposits rate, foreign direct investment (FDI), non-resident workers (NRW) and hotel occupancy rate (HOR), are in the lead of variation of housing price, income and tax revenue from gaming presents a causal relationship with housing price. FDI, NRW and HOR belong to the variations of the gambling industry which reveal flourishing gambling industry cam promote the housing price in Macau. Moreover, tax revenue from gaming, FDI, NRW and HOR leads income. Thus, it can infer after the gambling are allowed, it brings a great impact on the economy in Macau. On the other hand, the economy of Macau too dependent on gambling. Medium-sized and small enterprises face lot of cost pressure such as the raising rent and short of hands, so that excluding vivo sphere of medium-sized and enterprises.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與研究目的 1
第二節 研究方法與範圍 6
第三節 研究流程圖 8
第二章 澳門地區博彩事業與房地產發展 9
第一節 澳門博彩事業發展 9
第二節 澳門土地與都市發展 13
第三節 房地產現況分析 15
第三章 文獻回顧 21
第一節 不動產市場與總體經濟之關係 21
第二節 產業發展對經濟成長之影響 28
第三節 博彩產業對澳門之影響 34
第四節 賭場對房價的影響 38
第四章 研究設計 41
第一節 時間序列模型之建構 41
第二節 單根檢定 42
第三節 共整合檢定 44
第四節 向量誤差修正模型 46
第五節 因果關係檢定 47
第五章 實證結果與分析 49
第一節 資料來源 49
第二節 單根檢定 55
第三節 共整合檢定 57
第四節 向量誤差修正模型(VECM) 59
第五節 Granger因果關係檢定 63
第六章 結論與建議 67
第一節 結論 67
第二節 研究限制與建議 70
參考文獻 71		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1395672 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102257034en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 澳門zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 博彩業zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 住宅價格zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 因果關係zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Macauen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Gambling Industryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Housing Priceen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Granger Causalityen_US
dc.title (題名) 博彩業對房價的影響 – 以澳門為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) A Stduy of Lead-Lag Relationship Between Housing Price and Gambling Industry – The Case of Macauen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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