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題名 簽訂自由貿易協定之貿易與福利效果
Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of FTA
作者 吳米琪
Wu, Mi Chi
貢獻者 王信實<br>李浩仲
Wang, Shinn Shyr<br>Li, Hao Chung
吳米琪
Wu, Mi Chi
關鍵詞 自由貿易協定
世界貿易組織
多部門模型
投入產出連結
中間財
FTA
WTO
Multi-sector model
Sectoral linkages
Intermediate goods
日期 2015
上傳時間 1-Sep-2015 16:28:44 (UTC+8)
摘要 近年來雙邊甚或區域間簽訂自由貿易協定之風盛行，本文欲探討其影響。參考Caliendo and Parro(2015)的方法，以考慮部門異質性、投入產出連結以及中間財貿易之模型，計算1995-2013年間三個模型的福利效果。旨在分別檢視1995-2005年間WTO成立十年之影響、2005-2013年間全球120份自由貿易協定生效之效果，以及韓國此段期間內簽訂自由貿易協定之成果。本文結果顯示，WTO於1995年成立至其後10年間，確實為會員國帶來正面影響，總體而言，多數國家福利效果變動率為正。到了2005-2013年，全球有120份區域貿易協定生效，亦提升多數國家的福利，然成長幅度不如1995-2005來的顯著。惟韓國受惠於其簽訂自由貿易協定的成效，福利成長得與先前維持相近水準。此外，透過不同模型間的比較，本文發現各模型間的福利效果有明顯差異，顯示現今複雜的國際分工鏈下，完善考量部門間的互動因素實為衡量國際貿易效果的重要課題。
參考文獻 史惠慈，(2007)，《台日韓三國貿易條件之比較》，台北：中華經濟研究院。
Anderson, James E., and Eric van Wincoop (2002), “Borders, Trade and Welfare,” in S. Collins and D. Rodrik eds, Brookings Trade Policy Forum 2001, 207-230.
Anne O. Krueger (1999), “Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA,” NBER Working Paper No 7429.
Arkolakis, Costas, Arnaud Costinot, and Andres Rodriguez Clare (2012), “New Theories, Same Old Gains?” American Economic Review, 102(1), 94-130.
Caliendo and Parro (2015), “Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA,” The Review of Economic Studies, 82(1), 1-44.
Chor, Davin (2010), “Unpacking Sources of Comparative Advantage: A Quantitative Approach,” Journal of International Economics, 82(2), 152-167.
Costinot, Arnaud, Dave Donaldson, and Ivana Komunjer (2012), “What Goods
Do Countries Trade? A Quantitative Exploration of Ricardo’s Ideas?”
Review of Economic Studies, 79(2), 581-608.
David M. Gould (1998), “Has NAFTA Changed North American Trade,”
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, First Quarter (1998), 12-23.
Dekle, Robert, Jonathan Eaton, and Samuel S. Kortum (2008), “Global
Rebalancing with Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment,” IMF
Staff Papers, 55(3), 511-540.
Dixit, Arvind.K., and Joseph E. Stiglitz (1977), “Monopolistic Competition and
Optimum Product Diversity,” American Economic Review, 67(3),
297-308.

Donaldson, Dave (2012), “Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of
Transportation Infrastructure,” American Economic Review,
forthcoming.
Eaton, Jonathan, and Samuel S. Kortum (2002), “Technology, Geography, and
Trade,” Econometrica, 70(5), 1741-1779.
Eaton, Jonathan, Sam Kortum, Brent Neiman, and John Romalis (2011), “Trade and the Global Recession,” NBER Working Paper No 16666.
Ethier, Wilfred J. (1982), “National and International Returns to Scale in the Theory of International Trade,” American Economic Review, 72(3), 389-405.
Hsieh, Chang-Tai, and Ralph Ossa (2011), “A Global View of Productivity Growth in China,” NBER working paper No 16778.
Mitsuyo Ando (2009), “Impacts of FTAs in East Asia: CGE Simulation
Analysis,” RIETI Discussion Paper Series, 09-E-037.
P. Kehoe and T. Kehoe (1994), “Capturing NAFTA`s Impact With Applied
General Equilibrium Models,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Quarterly Review, 18(1).
Samuelson, Paul (1954), “The Transfer Problem and Transport Costs, II:
Analysis of Effects of Trade.Impediments,” The Economic Journal,
64(2), 264-289.
Scott L. Baier and Jeffrey H. Bergstrand (2007), “Do free trade agreements
actually increase members` international trade,” Journal of International
Economics, 71, 72-95.
Shikher, Serge (2011), “Capital, Technology, and Specialization in the
Neoclassical Model,” Journal of International Economics, 83(2),
229-242.

Sugiharso Safuan (2012), “ASEAN Economic Cooperation: Trade
Liberalization Impacts on the National Economy,” International Journal
of Economics and Finance, 11(4).
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
102258018
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102258018
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 王信實<br>李浩仲zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Wang, Shinn Shyr<br>Li, Hao Chungen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 吳米琪zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Wu, Mi Chien_US
dc.creator (作者) 吳米琪zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Wu, Mi Chien_US
dc.date (日期) 2015en_US
dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2015 16:28:44 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 1-Sep-2015 16:28:44 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2015 16:28:44 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0102258018en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/78109-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102258018zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近年來雙邊甚或區域間簽訂自由貿易協定之風盛行，本文欲探討其影響。參考Caliendo and Parro(2015)的方法，以考慮部門異質性、投入產出連結以及中間財貿易之模型，計算1995-2013年間三個模型的福利效果。旨在分別檢視1995-2005年間WTO成立十年之影響、2005-2013年間全球120份自由貿易協定生效之效果，以及韓國此段期間內簽訂自由貿易協定之成果。本文結果顯示，WTO於1995年成立至其後10年間，確實為會員國帶來正面影響，總體而言，多數國家福利效果變動率為正。到了2005-2013年，全球有120份區域貿易協定生效，亦提升多數國家的福利，然成長幅度不如1995-2005來的顯著。惟韓國受惠於其簽訂自由貿易協定的成效，福利成長得與先前維持相近水準。此外，透過不同模型間的比較，本文發現各模型間的福利效果有明顯差異，顯示現今複雜的國際分工鏈下，完善考量部門間的互動因素實為衡量國際貿易效果的重要課題。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 1 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與方法 1
1.2 韓國與台灣簽訂自由貿易協定之情形 3
2 文獻回顧 5
3 模型架構與方法 7
3.1 模型 7
3.2 稅率改變下的福利效果 13
3.3 將資料帶入模型 14
3.4 模型解法 15
4 貿易彈性 15
5 實證結果 18
5.1 資料來源與處理方法 18
5.2 1995-2005年間全球稅率改變之貿易與福利效果：模型一 20
5.3 2005-2013年間全球稅率改變之貿易與福利效果：模型二、三 25
5.4 考慮不同因素之模型比較 33
6 結論 35
參考文獻 37
附錄 40		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1453896 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102258018en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自由貿易協定zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 世界貿易組織zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 多部門模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 投入產出連結zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 中間財zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) FTAen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) WTOen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Multi-sector modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Sectoral linkagesen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Intermediate goodsen_US
dc.title (題名) 簽訂自由貿易協定之貿易與福利效果zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of FTAen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 史惠慈，(2007)，《台日韓三國貿易條件之比較》，台北：中華經濟研究院。
Anderson, James E., and Eric van Wincoop (2002), “Borders, Trade and Welfare,” in S. Collins and D. Rodrik eds, Brookings Trade Policy Forum 2001, 207-230.
Anne O. Krueger (1999), “Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Under NAFTA,” NBER Working Paper No 7429.
Arkolakis, Costas, Arnaud Costinot, and Andres Rodriguez Clare (2012), “New Theories, Same Old Gains?” American Economic Review, 102(1), 94-130.
Caliendo and Parro (2015), “Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA,” The Review of Economic Studies, 82(1), 1-44.
Chor, Davin (2010), “Unpacking Sources of Comparative Advantage: A Quantitative Approach,” Journal of International Economics, 82(2), 152-167.
Costinot, Arnaud, Dave Donaldson, and Ivana Komunjer (2012), “What Goods
Do Countries Trade? A Quantitative Exploration of Ricardo’s Ideas?”
Review of Economic Studies, 79(2), 581-608.
David M. Gould (1998), “Has NAFTA Changed North American Trade,”
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, First Quarter (1998), 12-23.
Dekle, Robert, Jonathan Eaton, and Samuel S. Kortum (2008), “Global
Rebalancing with Gravity: Measuring the Burden of Adjustment,” IMF
Staff Papers, 55(3), 511-540.
Dixit, Arvind.K., and Joseph E. Stiglitz (1977), “Monopolistic Competition and
Optimum Product Diversity,” American Economic Review, 67(3),
297-308.

Donaldson, Dave (2012), “Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the Impact of
Transportation Infrastructure,” American Economic Review,
forthcoming.
Eaton, Jonathan, and Samuel S. Kortum (2002), “Technology, Geography, and
Trade,” Econometrica, 70(5), 1741-1779.
Eaton, Jonathan, Sam Kortum, Brent Neiman, and John Romalis (2011), “Trade and the Global Recession,” NBER Working Paper No 16666.
Ethier, Wilfred J. (1982), “National and International Returns to Scale in the Theory of International Trade,” American Economic Review, 72(3), 389-405.
Hsieh, Chang-Tai, and Ralph Ossa (2011), “A Global View of Productivity Growth in China,” NBER working paper No 16778.
Mitsuyo Ando (2009), “Impacts of FTAs in East Asia: CGE Simulation
Analysis,” RIETI Discussion Paper Series, 09-E-037.
P. Kehoe and T. Kehoe (1994), “Capturing NAFTA`s Impact With Applied
General Equilibrium Models,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Quarterly Review, 18(1).
Samuelson, Paul (1954), “The Transfer Problem and Transport Costs, II:
Analysis of Effects of Trade.Impediments,” The Economic Journal,
64(2), 264-289.
Scott L. Baier and Jeffrey H. Bergstrand (2007), “Do free trade agreements
actually increase members` international trade,” Journal of International
Economics, 71, 72-95.
Shikher, Serge (2011), “Capital, Technology, and Specialization in the
Neoclassical Model,” Journal of International Economics, 83(2),
229-242.

Sugiharso Safuan (2012), “ASEAN Economic Cooperation: Trade
Liberalization Impacts on the National Economy,” International Journal
of Economics and Finance, 11(4).		zh_TW