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題名 新台幣與均一定價理論背離: 台幣實質與名目匯率差異的成因
The New Taiwan Dollar against The Law of One Price - On the Causes of Taiwan’s Real/Nominal Exchange Rate Spread作者 施安德
Springer, Andreas貢獻者 盧敬植
Lu, Ching Chih
施安德
Springer, Andreas關鍵詞 新台幣
匯率
PPP
經濟一體化
價位
New Taiwan Dollar
Exchange Rate
PPP
Economic Integration
Price Level日期 2015 上傳時間 4-Jan-2016 16:56:52 (UTC+8) 摘要 台灣的國內生產毛額及薪資在過去十幾年來相當的穩定,但是生活水準卻仍然一直提升。這種矛盾現象來自於新台幣的名目跟實質匯率背離,在先進國家裡面是相當罕見的。本論文研究了台灣與國際經濟的整合、貨幣政策、政治局勢以及收支平衡帳等因素,並了解他們跟此矛盾之間的潛在因果關係。由於台灣未能充分參與最近一波的全球化浪潮,使得它的價格體系跟國際水準脫勾。而對外投資、外匯累積,以及傳統商業跟文化結構等因素,共同創造了現有獨特的低物價水準環境。為了防止這種長期的價格扭曲影響,台灣的國際政治情勢必須改善,或至少跟經濟行為能力分離。唯有如此,台灣的經濟情況才能恢復正常,讓實質跟名目匯率的差距縮小,(以美金計價的)名目國內生產總值和工資也才能成長。
Taiwan’s GDP and wages have remained steady for more than a decade, though the living standard continued to rise. This paradox is induced by the New Taiwan Dollar’s nominal and real exchange rates diverging, an anomaly amongst advanced economies. Investigating ongoing international economic integration, Taiwan’s monetary policy, political situation, and balance of payments unveils the underlying causality. Taiwan could not participate in the most recent wave of globalisation, insulating its price level. In combination with outgoing investments, reserves accumulation, and its traditional business culture and structure, this has created an area of inimitable low prices. In order to prevent distortionary long-term effects, Taiwan’s political situation needs to either be resolved, or separated from its economic capacity to act. 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國立政治大學
亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS)
102926032資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1029260321 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 盧敬植 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lu, Ching Chih en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 施安德 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Springer, Andreas en_US dc.creator (作者) 施安德 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Springer, Andreas en_US dc.date (日期) 2015 en_US dc.date.accessioned 4-Jan-2016 16:56:52 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 4-Jan-2016 16:56:52 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Jan-2016 16:56:52 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1029260321 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://ah.lib.nccu.edu.tw/item?item_id=89628 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS) zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102926032 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 台灣的國內生產毛額及薪資在過去十幾年來相當的穩定,但是生活水準卻仍然一直提升。這種矛盾現象來自於新台幣的名目跟實質匯率背離,在先進國家裡面是相當罕見的。本論文研究了台灣與國際經濟的整合、貨幣政策、政治局勢以及收支平衡帳等因素,並了解他們跟此矛盾之間的潛在因果關係。由於台灣未能充分參與最近一波的全球化浪潮,使得它的價格體系跟國際水準脫勾。而對外投資、外匯累積,以及傳統商業跟文化結構等因素,共同創造了現有獨特的低物價水準環境。為了防止這種長期的價格扭曲影響,台灣的國際政治情勢必須改善,或至少跟經濟行為能力分離。唯有如此,台灣的經濟情況才能恢復正常,讓實質跟名目匯率的差距縮小,(以美金計價的)名目國內生產總值和工資也才能成長。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Taiwan’s GDP and wages have remained steady for more than a decade, though the living standard continued to rise. This paradox is induced by the New Taiwan Dollar’s nominal and real exchange rates diverging, an anomaly amongst advanced economies. Investigating ongoing international economic integration, Taiwan’s monetary policy, political situation, and balance of payments unveils the underlying causality. Taiwan could not participate in the most recent wave of globalisation, insulating its price level. In combination with outgoing investments, reserves accumulation, and its traditional business culture and structure, this has created an area of inimitable low prices. In order to prevent distortionary long-term effects, Taiwan’s political situation needs to either be resolved, or separated from its economic capacity to act. Only then can Taiwan’s economic situation normalise and the real/nominal exchange rate spread fade, which implies an increase in nominal GDP and wages (measured in USD). en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 1\n2. Fundamental Theories 7\n2.1 The Law of One Price 7\n2.2 Purchasing Power Parity 9\n2.3 Balassa-Samuelson-Effect and Penn-Effect 13\n2.4 Fisher- and International Fisher-Effect 15\n2.5 Real / Nominal Exchange Rate Convergence 16\n3. Emergence of Taiwan’s Real / Nominal GDP Spread 19\n3.1 Inflation, Real Growth and Population Growth 19\n3.2 International Fisher-Effect and the NTD Nominal Exchange Rate 21\n3.3 Real / Nominal GDP Ratio over Time - Taiwan’s Case 22\n3.4 International Price Levels 24\n3.4.1 All Countries 24\n3.4.2 Advanced Economies 26\n3.4.3 Anomaly Taiwan 28\n3.5 Causes Overview 32\n4. International Integration 33\n4.1 Factor Price Equalisation 33\n4.2 Economic Integration 37\n4.3 Taiwan’s Isolation 40\n5. Monetary Policy and Cross-Strait Relations 46\n5.1 History and Official Foreign Exchange Policy 46\n5.2 Actual Monetary Policy 47\n5.3 Taiwan and China Economic Policy 50\n6. Balance of Payments 54\n6.1 Overview 54\n6.2 Foreign Reserves 56\n6.3 Current Account 60\n6.3.1 Overview 60\n6.3.2 Trade 60\n6.4 Investment 65\n6.4.1 Financial Account 65\n6.4.2 Direct Investment Flows 65\n6.4.3 Inbound Investment Disincentives 68\n7. Price Level Considerations 73\n7.1 China’s Influence 73\n7.2 Competition and Efficiency Focus 74\n8. Conclusion 77\nReferences 79\nAppendix 89\nA. NPV and IRR 89\nB. Data 90 zh_TW dc.format.extent 1313487 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1029260321 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 新台幣 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 匯率 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) PPP zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 經濟一體化 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 價位 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) New Taiwan Dollar en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Exchange Rate en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) PPP en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Economic Integration en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Price Level en_US dc.title (題名) 新台幣與均一定價理論背離: 台幣實質與名目匯率差異的成因 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The New Taiwan Dollar against The Law of One Price - On the Causes of Taiwan’s Real/Nominal Exchange Rate Spread en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Abuaf, N., & Jorion, P. (1990). Purchasing power parity in the long run. The Journal of Finance, 45(1), 157-174.\nAgresti, A., & Finlay, B. (2008) Statistical Methods for the Social Sciences (4th Edition). Boston: Pearson Addison-Wesley\nAhmad, S. (2003). 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