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題名 管理當局能力與強制性盈餘預測之關聯性-來自中國A股上市公司的實證分析
The Relationship Between Managerial Ability and Mandatory Forecast: Evidence from China作者 熊曦
Xiong, Xi貢獻者 金成隆
Chin, Chen Lung
熊曦
Xiong, Xi關鍵詞 管理當局能力
強制性盈餘預測
預測形態
盈餘預測誤差
市場反應
Managerial Ability
Mandatory Forecast
Forecast Format
Forecast Error
Market Reaction日期 2016 上傳時間 3-Feb-2016 11:16:19 (UTC+8) 摘要 本研究以中國2007年至2013年盈餘預測的A股上市公司為主體。探討管理當局發佈強制性盈餘預測的預測形態、預測誤差以及市場反應與管理當局能力之關聯性,並進一步檢測管理當局能力是否影響到其對於強制性盈餘預告門檻的規避以及對於來年發佈自願性業績預測的意願。 實證的結果顯示管理當局能力越好其提供的強制性盈餘預測的形式越精準其預告資訊含量越多;再者,管理當局能力越好,其盈餘預測的誤差越低;實證結果也證明了市場對於能力較佳之管理當局所發佈的強制性盈餘預測的反應程度也較高。增額測試的結果顯示管理當局能力佳者盈餘品質較佳,具體表現為:相較於能力差的管理者,管理當局能力較好時不會通過盈餘管理去避免導因於產生增長50%或是下降50%而強制發佈盈餘預告的門檻。另外,管理當局能力越好,其在隔年度發佈自願性盈餘預測的幾率也越高。關鍵詞:管理當局能力、強制性盈餘預測、預測形態、盈餘預測誤差、市場反應
This thesis focuses on mandatory forecast issued from 2007 to 2013 in China and investigate whether managerial ability is related to mandatory forecasts types, forecast error and market reaction. Additionally, this thesis also examines whether managerial ability decrease the likelihood to avoid mandatory forecast thresholds. Finally, whether the managerial ability will increase the probability of issuing voluntary forecasts in the following year is an interesting but unsolved issue; I will fill the gap. Empirical results show that managers with superior ability tend to issue mandatory forecasts in the more precise type. As for the accuracy, the mandatory forecasts issued by better managers tend to have less error. I also find that managerial ability can promotes the informativeness of management earnings forecasts for the public. Additionally, high ability managers are less likely to avoid the thresholds of mandatory forecasts. Furthermore, better managers are more likely to issue voluntary forecasts in the following year of mandatory forecasts.Key Words: Managerial Ability, Mandatory Earnings Forecast, Forecast Format, Forecast Error, Market Reaction.參考文獻 誌謝 ii中文摘要 iii目錄 ivAier, J., J. Comprix, M. Gunlock, and D. Lee. 2005. The financial expertise of CFOs and accounting restatements. Accounting Horizons 19 (3): 123-135.Ajinkya, B., S. Bhojraj, and P. Sengupta. 2005. The association between outside directors, institutional investors and the properties of management earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 43 (5): 343-376.Baginski, S. P., J. M. Hassell, and M. D. Kimbrough. 2002. The effect of legal environment on voluntary disclosure: Evidence from management earnings forecasts issued in the US and Canadian markets. The Accounting Review 77:25-50.Bamber, L., and Y. Cheon. 1998. Discretionary management earnings forecast disclosures: Antecedents and outcomes associated with forecast venue and forecast specificity choices. Journal of Accounting Research 36 (2): 167-190.Bamber, L., J. Jiang, and I. Wang. 2010. What’s my style? The influence of top managers on voluntary corporate financial disclosure. The Accounting Review 85 (4): 1131-1162.Boehmer, E., J. Musumeci, and B. A. Poulsen. 1991. Event-study methodology under conditions of event induced variance. Journal of Financial Economics 30: 253-272.Bertrand, M., and A. Schoar. 2003. Managing with style: The effects of managers on firm policies. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (4): 1169-1208.Baik, B., D. Farber, and S. Lee. 2011. CEO ability and management earnings forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 28 (5): 1645-1668.Burton, J. C. 1974. Forecasts: A changing view from the Securities and Exchange Commission in public reporting of corporate financial forecasts, edited by P. Prakash and A. Rappaport. New York: Commerce Clearing House.Burgstahler, D. and I. Dichev. 1997. Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses. Journal of Accounting and Economics 24: 99-126.Chang, S. C., C. F. Wang. 2007. The effect of product diversification strategies on the relationship between international diversification and firm performance. Journal of World Business, 42 (1): 61-79.Demerjian, P., B. Lev, and S. McVay. 2012. Quantifying managerial ability: A new measure an validity tests. Management Science 58(7) : 1229-1248.Demerjian, P., B. Lev, M. Lewis, and S. McVay. 2013. Managerial ability and earnings quality. The Accounting Review 88 (2): 463-498.Degeorge, F., J. Patel, and R. Zeckhauser. 1999. Earnings management to exceed thresholds. Journal of Business 72 (1): 1-33.Doyle ,J. T, T.N.Jennings, and M.T. Soliman .2013. Do managers define non-GAAP earnings to meet or beat analyst forecasts?. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 56(1): 40-56.Fama, E., and K. French. 1997. Industry costs of equity. Journal of Financial Economics 43 (2): 153–193.Falato, A., D. Li and T. Milbourne. 2012. Which skills matter in the market for CEOs? Evidence from pay for CEO credentials. Working Paper, Federal Reserve Board and Washington University in St Louis.Francis, J., A. Huang, S. Rajgopal, and A. Zang. 2008. CEO reputation and earnings quality. Contemporary Accounting Research 25 (1): 109-147. Freeman, R. N. 1987. The association between accounting earnings and security returns for large and small firms. Journal of Accounting & Economics 9 (2): 195-228.Gompers, P. A., and A. Metrick. 2001. Institutional investors and equity prices. Quarterly Journal of Economics 116 (1): 229-259.Gonedes, N. J., N. Dopuch, and S. H. Penman. 1976. Disclosure rules, information production, and capital market equilibrium: The case of forecast disclosure rules. Journal of Accounting Research 14 (1): 89-137.Graham, J., C. Harvey and M. Puri. 2013. Managerial attitudes and corporate actions. Journal of Financial Economics 109(1):103-121.Guo, N. and H. Qi. 2010. Empirical evidence of management forecasts and earnings management: Evidence from China. China Research of Economics and Management 2: 81-88.Jiang, Y., X. Tong, and X. Yang. 2003. Information content of earnings warnings. China Accounting and Finance Review 5 (4): 164-183.Kothari, S.P., S. Shu, and P.D. Wysocki.2009. Do managers withhold bad news? Journal of Accounting Research 47 (1), 241–276.Hambrick, D., and P. Mason. 1984. Upper Echelons: The Organization as a Reflection of Its Top Managers. Academy of Management Review 9 (2): 193-206.Hayn, C. 1995. The information content of losses. Journal of Accounting and Economics 20 (2): 125-53.Hitt, M. A., R. E. Hoskisson, and H. Kim. 1997. International diversification: Effects on innovation and firm performance in product-diversified firm. Academy of Management Journal 40 (4): 767-798. Hutton, A., and P. Stocken. 2009. Prior forecasting accuracy and investor reaction to Management earnings forecasts. Working paper, Boston College.Huang ,.X, X.Li ,and S.Tse . 2014. The Effects of Management Earnings Forecast Mandates: Evidence from China. Working paper. Kawk, B., B. Ro, and I. Suk. 2012. The Composition of top management with general counsel and voluntary information disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Economics 54: 19-41.Karamanou, I., and N. Vafeas. 2005. The association between corporate boards, audit committees, and management earnings forecasts: An empirical analysis. Journal of Accounting Research 43 (3): 453–86.Kasznik, R., and B. Lev. 1995. To warn or not to warn: Management disclosures in the face of an earnings surprise. The Accounting Review 70 (1): 113-34.Lee, S., S. Matsunaga, and C. Park. 2010. Management forecast accuracy and CEO turnover. Working paper, University of Oregon.Liu, H.F. 2015. Mandatory Earnings Forecasts Disclosure,Audit Risk and Earnings Quality. Journal of Hunan Finance and Economics University. 31(153):22-31. Liu,C.C., and T.H. Chen. 1998. Relationship between Managers` Voluntary Earnings Forecasts and their Precision. Sun Yat-Sen Management Review6(2):411-440.Lee, J.Z., and J.D. Chou. 2002. The relationship between management reputation and informativeness of voluntary earnings forecasts. International Journal of Accounting Studies 34:77-99.Nagar, V., D. Nanda, and P. Wysocki. 2003. Discretionary disclosure and stock-based incentives. Journal of Accounting and Economics 34 (1): 283–309.Qin, Y.2004. The decline of voluntary earnings forecasts by IPO firms. China Journal of Accounting Research 11: 76-80. In Chinese. Payne, J. L. 2008. The Influence ofAudit Firm Specialization on Analysts’ Forecast Errors. Auditing: A Journal of Practice &;Theory 27 (2): 109-136.Piotroski, J. D. and T. J. Wong. 2010. Institutions and information environment of Chinese listed firms. Working paper.Rajgopal, S., T. Shevlin, and V. Zamora. 2006. CEOs’ outside employment opportunities and the lack of relative performance evaluation in compensation contracts. The Journal of Finance 61 (4): 1813–44.Radhakrishnan, S., A. Tsang, and Y. G. Yang. 2012. Management forecasts around the world. Working paper. University of Texas at Dallas.Skinner, D.J., 1994. Why firms voluntarily disclose bad news. Journal of Accounting Research 32 (1), 38–60.Song, Y. 2009. Selection bias in CSRC’s sanction for management forecast violations. Qinghua University Publication 24: 52-60. In Chinese.Song, Y., Z. Li, and X. Ji. 2011. The consequences of sanctions for management forecast violations. China Financial Research 6: 136-149.Song, L., and J.X. Chen. 2004. The empirical investigation on effect of listed companies annual announcements on stock price. China Commercial Research 19(47):127-131. Till, K. 1980. The SEC safe harbor for forecasts: A step in the right direction? Duke Law Journal 1980 (3): 607-640.Trueman, B. 1986. Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecasts? Journal of Accountin and Economics 8 (1): 53–71.Yuan, Z.C., and H. Yue. 2014. Agency Cost, Ownership Nature and Management Forecast Precision. China Naikai Business Review 3(17):49-61.Wang,Y., Y. Chen, and J. Wang 2015. Management earnings forecasts and analyst forecasts: Evidence from mandatory disclosure system. China Journal of Accounting Research, 8(2): 133-146.Wang, Q.,T.J. Wong, and J. Xia.2008. State ownership, the institutional environment, and auditor choice: Evidence from China. Journal of Accounting and Economics 46(1): 112-134.Yan, X., and Z. Zhang. 2009. Institutional investors and equity returns: Are short-term institutions better informed? The Review of Financial Studies, 22 (2), 893-924. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
102353045資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1023530451 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 金成隆 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chin, Chen Lung en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 熊曦 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Xiong, Xi en_US dc.creator (作者) 熊曦 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Xiong, Xi en_US dc.date (日期) 2016 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-Feb-2016 11:16:19 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-Feb-2016 11:16:19 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Feb-2016 11:16:19 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1023530451 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/81106 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 會計學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 102353045 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究以中國2007年至2013年盈餘預測的A股上市公司為主體。探討管理當局發佈強制性盈餘預測的預測形態、預測誤差以及市場反應與管理當局能力之關聯性,並進一步檢測管理當局能力是否影響到其對於強制性盈餘預告門檻的規避以及對於來年發佈自願性業績預測的意願。 實證的結果顯示管理當局能力越好其提供的強制性盈餘預測的形式越精準其預告資訊含量越多;再者,管理當局能力越好,其盈餘預測的誤差越低;實證結果也證明了市場對於能力較佳之管理當局所發佈的強制性盈餘預測的反應程度也較高。增額測試的結果顯示管理當局能力佳者盈餘品質較佳,具體表現為:相較於能力差的管理者,管理當局能力較好時不會通過盈餘管理去避免導因於產生增長50%或是下降50%而強制發佈盈餘預告的門檻。另外,管理當局能力越好,其在隔年度發佈自願性盈餘預測的幾率也越高。關鍵詞:管理當局能力、強制性盈餘預測、預測形態、盈餘預測誤差、市場反應 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis focuses on mandatory forecast issued from 2007 to 2013 in China and investigate whether managerial ability is related to mandatory forecasts types, forecast error and market reaction. Additionally, this thesis also examines whether managerial ability decrease the likelihood to avoid mandatory forecast thresholds. Finally, whether the managerial ability will increase the probability of issuing voluntary forecasts in the following year is an interesting but unsolved issue; I will fill the gap. Empirical results show that managers with superior ability tend to issue mandatory forecasts in the more precise type. As for the accuracy, the mandatory forecasts issued by better managers tend to have less error. I also find that managerial ability can promotes the informativeness of management earnings forecasts for the public. Additionally, high ability managers are less likely to avoid the thresholds of mandatory forecasts. Furthermore, better managers are more likely to issue voluntary forecasts in the following year of mandatory forecasts.Key Words: Managerial Ability, Mandatory Earnings Forecast, Forecast Format, Forecast Error, Market Reaction. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 1. Introduction 11.1 Research Purpose and Motivation 11.2 Research Framework 22.1 Institutional Backgrounds 42.2 Literature Review of Managerial Ability 72.3 Mandatory Forecast Precision and Error 82.4 Market Reaction to Mandatory Forecast Disclosures 103. Research Design 103.1 Hypothesis Development 103.2 Main Variables Measurement 123.2.1 Measuring Managerial Ability 123.2.2 Main Dependent Variables 153.3 Model Establishment 163.3.1 Test of Hypothesis 1 & 2 163.3.3 Test of Hypothesis 3 193.4 Sample Selection Process and Data Sources 204. Empirical Results 224.1 Descriptive Statistics 224.2 Analyses of Correlations Between Variables 254.3 Regression Results 284. 4Further Analysis 324.4.1 Managerial Ability and the Possibility to Avoid Earnings Thresholds 324.4.2 Managerial Ability and Possibility to Issue Voluntary Forecast 354.5 Sensitive Analysis 385. Conclusions and Suggestions 405.1 Research Contribution and Conclusion 405.2 Limitations and Future Research Work 41Reference: 42Appendix1 46Appendix 2 47 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1023530451 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 管理當局能力 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 強制性盈餘預測 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測形態 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 盈餘預測誤差 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 市場反應 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Managerial Ability en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Mandatory Forecast en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Forecast Format en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Forecast Error en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Market Reaction en_US dc.title (題名) 管理當局能力與強制性盈餘預測之關聯性-來自中國A股上市公司的實證分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Relationship Between Managerial Ability and Mandatory Forecast: Evidence from China en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 誌謝 ii中文摘要 iii目錄 ivAier, J., J. Comprix, M. Gunlock, and D. Lee. 2005. The financial expertise of CFOs and accounting restatements. Accounting Horizons 19 (3): 123-135.Ajinkya, B., S. Bhojraj, and P. Sengupta. 2005. The association between outside directors, institutional investors and the properties of management earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 43 (5): 343-376.Baginski, S. P., J. M. Hassell, and M. D. Kimbrough. 2002. The effect of legal environment on voluntary disclosure: Evidence from management earnings forecasts issued in the US and Canadian markets. The Accounting Review 77:25-50.Bamber, L., and Y. Cheon. 1998. Discretionary management earnings forecast disclosures: Antecedents and outcomes associated with forecast venue and forecast specificity choices. Journal of Accounting Research 36 (2): 167-190.Bamber, L., J. Jiang, and I. Wang. 2010. What’s my style? The influence of top managers on voluntary corporate financial disclosure. The Accounting Review 85 (4): 1131-1162.Boehmer, E., J. Musumeci, and B. A. Poulsen. 1991. Event-study methodology under conditions of event induced variance. Journal of Financial Economics 30: 253-272.Bertrand, M., and A. Schoar. 2003. Managing with style: The effects of managers on firm policies. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (4): 1169-1208.Baik, B., D. Farber, and S. Lee. 2011. CEO ability and management earnings forecasts. Contemporary Accounting Research 28 (5): 1645-1668.Burton, J. C. 1974. Forecasts: A changing view from the Securities and Exchange Commission in public reporting of corporate financial forecasts, edited by P. Prakash and A. Rappaport. New York: Commerce Clearing House.Burgstahler, D. and I. Dichev. 1997. Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses. Journal of Accounting and Economics 24: 99-126.Chang, S. C., C. F. Wang. 2007. The effect of product diversification strategies on the relationship between international diversification and firm performance. Journal of World Business, 42 (1): 61-79.Demerjian, P., B. Lev, and S. McVay. 2012. Quantifying managerial ability: A new measure an validity tests. Management Science 58(7) : 1229-1248.Demerjian, P., B. Lev, M. Lewis, and S. McVay. 2013. Managerial ability and earnings quality. The Accounting Review 88 (2): 463-498.Degeorge, F., J. Patel, and R. Zeckhauser. 1999. Earnings management to exceed thresholds. Journal of Business 72 (1): 1-33.Doyle ,J. T, T.N.Jennings, and M.T. Soliman .2013. Do managers define non-GAAP earnings to meet or beat analyst forecasts?. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 56(1): 40-56.Fama, E., and K. French. 1997. Industry costs of equity. Journal of Financial Economics 43 (2): 153–193.Falato, A., D. Li and T. Milbourne. 2012. Which skills matter in the market for CEOs? Evidence from pay for CEO credentials. Working Paper, Federal Reserve Board and Washington University in St Louis.Francis, J., A. Huang, S. Rajgopal, and A. Zang. 2008. CEO reputation and earnings quality. Contemporary Accounting Research 25 (1): 109-147. Freeman, R. N. 1987. The association between accounting earnings and security returns for large and small firms. Journal of Accounting & Economics 9 (2): 195-228.Gompers, P. A., and A. Metrick. 2001. Institutional investors and equity prices. Quarterly Journal of Economics 116 (1): 229-259.Gonedes, N. J., N. Dopuch, and S. H. Penman. 1976. Disclosure rules, information production, and capital market equilibrium: The case of forecast disclosure rules. Journal of Accounting Research 14 (1): 89-137.Graham, J., C. Harvey and M. Puri. 2013. Managerial attitudes and corporate actions. Journal of Financial Economics 109(1):103-121.Guo, N. and H. Qi. 2010. Empirical evidence of management forecasts and earnings management: Evidence from China. China Research of Economics and Management 2: 81-88.Jiang, Y., X. Tong, and X. Yang. 2003. Information content of earnings warnings. China Accounting and Finance Review 5 (4): 164-183.Kothari, S.P., S. Shu, and P.D. Wysocki.2009. Do managers withhold bad news? Journal of Accounting Research 47 (1), 241–276.Hambrick, D., and P. Mason. 1984. Upper Echelons: The Organization as a Reflection of Its Top Managers. Academy of Management Review 9 (2): 193-206.Hayn, C. 1995. The information content of losses. Journal of Accounting and Economics 20 (2): 125-53.Hitt, M. A., R. E. Hoskisson, and H. Kim. 1997. International diversification: Effects on innovation and firm performance in product-diversified firm. Academy of Management Journal 40 (4): 767-798. Hutton, A., and P. Stocken. 2009. Prior forecasting accuracy and investor reaction to Management earnings forecasts. Working paper, Boston College.Huang ,.X, X.Li ,and S.Tse . 2014. The Effects of Management Earnings Forecast Mandates: Evidence from China. Working paper. Kawk, B., B. Ro, and I. Suk. 2012. The Composition of top management with general counsel and voluntary information disclosure. Journal of Accounting and Economics 54: 19-41.Karamanou, I., and N. Vafeas. 2005. The association between corporate boards, audit committees, and management earnings forecasts: An empirical analysis. Journal of Accounting Research 43 (3): 453–86.Kasznik, R., and B. Lev. 1995. To warn or not to warn: Management disclosures in the face of an earnings surprise. The Accounting Review 70 (1): 113-34.Lee, S., S. Matsunaga, and C. Park. 2010. Management forecast accuracy and CEO turnover. Working paper, University of Oregon.Liu, H.F. 2015. Mandatory Earnings Forecasts Disclosure,Audit Risk and Earnings Quality. Journal of Hunan Finance and Economics University. 31(153):22-31. Liu,C.C., and T.H. Chen. 1998. Relationship between Managers` Voluntary Earnings Forecasts and their Precision. Sun Yat-Sen Management Review6(2):411-440.Lee, J.Z., and J.D. Chou. 2002. The relationship between management reputation and informativeness of voluntary earnings forecasts. International Journal of Accounting Studies 34:77-99.Nagar, V., D. Nanda, and P. Wysocki. 2003. Discretionary disclosure and stock-based incentives. Journal of Accounting and Economics 34 (1): 283–309.Qin, Y.2004. The decline of voluntary earnings forecasts by IPO firms. China Journal of Accounting Research 11: 76-80. In Chinese. Payne, J. L. 2008. The Influence ofAudit Firm Specialization on Analysts’ Forecast Errors. Auditing: A Journal of Practice &;Theory 27 (2): 109-136.Piotroski, J. D. and T. J. Wong. 2010. Institutions and information environment of Chinese listed firms. Working paper.Rajgopal, S., T. Shevlin, and V. Zamora. 2006. CEOs’ outside employment opportunities and the lack of relative performance evaluation in compensation contracts. The Journal of Finance 61 (4): 1813–44.Radhakrishnan, S., A. Tsang, and Y. G. Yang. 2012. Management forecasts around the world. Working paper. University of Texas at Dallas.Skinner, D.J., 1994. Why firms voluntarily disclose bad news. Journal of Accounting Research 32 (1), 38–60.Song, Y. 2009. Selection bias in CSRC’s sanction for management forecast violations. Qinghua University Publication 24: 52-60. In Chinese.Song, Y., Z. Li, and X. Ji. 2011. The consequences of sanctions for management forecast violations. China Financial Research 6: 136-149.Song, L., and J.X. Chen. 2004. The empirical investigation on effect of listed companies annual announcements on stock price. China Commercial Research 19(47):127-131. Till, K. 1980. The SEC safe harbor for forecasts: A step in the right direction? Duke Law Journal 1980 (3): 607-640.Trueman, B. 1986. Why do managers voluntarily release earnings forecasts? Journal of Accountin and Economics 8 (1): 53–71.Yuan, Z.C., and H. Yue. 2014. Agency Cost, Ownership Nature and Management Forecast Precision. China Naikai Business Review 3(17):49-61.Wang,Y., Y. Chen, and J. Wang 2015. Management earnings forecasts and analyst forecasts: Evidence from mandatory disclosure system. China Journal of Accounting Research, 8(2): 133-146.Wang, Q.,T.J. Wong, and J. Xia.2008. State ownership, the institutional environment, and auditor choice: Evidence from China. Journal of Accounting and Economics 46(1): 112-134.Yan, X., and Z. Zhang. 2009. Institutional investors and equity returns: Are short-term institutions better informed? The Review of Financial Studies, 22 (2), 893-924. zh_TW
