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題名 公有標售土地之價格溢酬與土地開發決策─以臺北市地區為例
Price Premium and Development Decision of Public-auctioned Land─The Case of Taipei City
作者 鄭韻廷
Cheng, Yun Ting
貢獻者 林子欽
Lin, Tzu Chin
鄭韻廷
Cheng, Yun Ting
關鍵詞 價格溢酬
標售土地
開發決策
Price Premium
Auctioned Land
Development Deision
日期 2015
上傳時間 3-Feb-2016 12:18:48 (UTC+8)
摘要 過去探討標售土地價格溢酬,大多為探討得標價格與底標價格間溢價程度。本研究藉由衡量標售土地之市場價格,合理評估標售土地的價格溢酬。過去鮮少針對公有土地於標售後的開發決策進行分析。從資料以觀,市場上仍存有一定比例的標售土地尚未進行開發,本研究嘗試分析標售土地閒置或進行開發的因素。
本研究採取事後推估價格方式,以土地開發分析法所推估的土地開發分析價格作為市場價格。實證結果發現超過9成樣本呈現正值溢價,若缺乏評估標售土地市場價格,可能無法觀察標售土地的整體價格型態,進而無法合理評估標售土地價格溢酬。另一方面,透過都市土地最適開發時機模型分析開發決策。結果顯示不論已開發或尚未開發標售土地,持有土地的邊際收益幾乎皆大於邊際成本。實際上存有近7成土地尚未開發,若政府藉由調升地價稅促使土地開發,則需要調整204次,耗時612年。換言之,現行地價稅稅制無法有效促使土地開發。標售土地開發後平均可獲取利潤為原先取得成本的一倍之多。地主在不具有迫切的開發壓力下,於選擇上仍可透過開發實現利得。
Prior research studying price premium of auctioned land mainly focused on the difference between reserve price and bid price. By estimating market price of auctioned land, we can further evaluate the price premium of auctioned land. In addition, few studies discussed the development decision of auctioned land. However, market has seen a significant amount of undeveloped land. We attempt to analyze the factors which determine auctioned land to be developed or remain idle.
By means of retrospective appraisal, we regard the price evaluated by the approach of land development analysis as the market price of auctioned land. The empirical result reveals that over 90% of auction samples indicate price premium which suggests the estimated market price is higher than bid price. In light of this finding, the lack of estimated market price of auctioned land prevent us from assessing price premium of auctioned land accurately.
Through the optimal timing of urban land development, we also examine the decision of land development. The result shows that the vast majority of both developed and undeveloped land have gained growth in value if they remain idle for a period of time prior to development. In fact, nearly 70% of auctioned land are still undeveloped. If the government aims to promote idle land to be developed by raising land value tax, it will take 612 years for the tax to be effective. Namely, increasing current land holding cost does not push much pressure on land owner to develop his land. Moreover, we find that the profits the land owners gain through transactions of land is more than the price they paid for it. In conclusion, the land owners can realize a handsome profit through developing under no financial pressure.
參考文獻 1.王宏文,2010,「臺北市地價稅公平性研究」『行政暨政策學報』,51:47-76。
2.林子欽,2004,「土地市場研究的回顧與想法」『土地問題研究季刊』,3(3):31-41。
3.林鼎鈞,2004,「公有土地利用與管理問題分析」『土地問題研究季刊』,3(1):56-62。
4.林森田,2008,『土地經濟學』,台北,巨流政大書城總經銷。
5.林惠玲、陳正倉,2011,『應用統計學』,台北,雙葉書廊有限公司。
6.杜宇璇,2014,「土地標售之溢價率分析—以新莊副都心抵費地標售為例」,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文:台北。
7.卓輝華,2012,「國有土地標售不動產市場與價格之影響分析」『當代財政』,23:46-62。
8.卓輝華,1999,『不動產估價實務與理論』,台北,文笙書局。
9.徐士堯,2005,「土地開發分析法之探析」『土地問題研究季刊』4(2):81-88。
10.陳奉瑤、梁仁旭,2009,『不動產估價』,台北,巨流政大書城總經銷
11.張清溪、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧,吳聰敏,2004,『經濟學理論與實務』。
12.張菀玲,2011,「高雄市市地重劃抵費地標售價格溢價之評估」,國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文:台北。
13.黃方欣,2013,「反共有財是悲劇嗎?—土地產權的實證結果」,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文:台北。
14.曾瑀瑄,2014,「土地開發的產權僵局—土地開發的產權僵局」,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文:台北。
15.劉厚連,2005,「我國公有土地私有化問題之制度分析」『土地問題研究季刊』,4(1) :70-76。
16.Byrne, P. (1996). Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-making in Property Development, 2nd ed., E. & F.N. Spon, London.
17.Chau, K. W., et al. (2010). "Do Unexpected Land Auction Outcomes Bring New Information to the Real Estate Market?" The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 40(4): 480-496.
18.Ching, S. and Y. Fu (2003). "Contestability of the urban land market: an event study of Hong Kong land auctions." Regional Science and Urban Economics 33(6): 695-720.
19.Colwell, D. M. and P. F. Colwell (2004). "The Timing of Development Revealed by the Market: An Options Approach." Appraisal Journal 72(2).
20.Colwell, P. F. and C. F. Sirmans (1978). "Area, time, centrality and the value of urban land." Land Economics: 514-519.
21.Evans, A. (1983). "The Determination of the Price of Land." Urban Studies 20(2): 119-129.
22.Evans, A. (2004). "Economcis, Real Estate and the Supply of Land", Blackwell Publishing
23.Gwin, C., et al. (2005). "Auctions and land values: An experimental analysis." Urban Studies 42(12): 2245-2259.
24.Glaeser, E. L., et al. (2003). "Why is Manhattan so expensive? Regulation and the rise in house prices." National Bureau of Economic Research.
25.Levin, E. J. and Pryce, G. B. J. (2007)." A Statistical Explanation for Extreme Bids in the House Market." Urban Studies. 44(12): 2339-2355.
26.Lin, T.-C. and A. W. Evans (2000). "The relationship between the price of land and size of plot when plots are small." Land Economics: 386-394.
27.Lin. T.-C. and Jhen (2009)."Inequity of land valuation in the highly developed city of Taipei, Taiwan." Land Use Policy. 26(3): 662-668.
28.Lin. T.-C. (2010)."Property tax inequity resulting from inaccurate assessment-The Taiwan experence." Land Use Policy. 27(2): 511-517.
29.Man, K. and C. Ng (2007). "An Empirical Study of Valuation Accuracy and Variation in Hong Kong Land Auctions." Appraisal Journal 75(3):253-263.
30.Needham, B. (1981). "A Neo-classical Supply-based Approach to Land Prices." Urban Studies 18(1): 91-104.
31.Neutze, M. (1987). "The Supply of Land for a Particular Use." Urban Studies 24(5): 379-388.
32.Oates, Wallace E. and Schwab, Robert M. (1997). "The Impact of Urban Land Taxation: The Pittsburgh Experience." National Tax Journal 50(1): 1-21.
33.Ooi, J. T. and C. Sirmans (2004). "The wealth effects of land acquisition." The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 29(3): 277-294.
34.Qu, W. and X. Liu (2012). "Assessing the Performance of Chinese Land Lease Auctions: Evidence from Beijing." Journal of Real Estate Research 34(3): 291-310.
35.Shoup, D. C. (1970). "The optimal timing of urban land development." Papers in Regional Science 25(1): 33-44.
36.Somerville, C. T. (1996). "The contribution of land and structure to builder profits and house prices." Journal of Housing Research 7: 127-141.
37.Wheaton, W. C. and W. E. Simonton (2007). "The secular and cyclic behavior of “True” construction costs." Journal of Real Estate Research 29(1): 1-26.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
102257017
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102257017
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林子欽zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Tzu Chinen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 鄭韻廷zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Cheng, Yun Tingen_US
dc.creator (作者) 鄭韻廷zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Cheng, Yun Tingen_US
dc.date (日期) 2015en_US
dc.date.accessioned 3-Feb-2016 12:18:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 3-Feb-2016 12:18:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Feb-2016 12:18:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0102257017en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/81216-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 地政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 102257017zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 過去探討標售土地價格溢酬,大多為探討得標價格與底標價格間溢價程度。本研究藉由衡量標售土地之市場價格,合理評估標售土地的價格溢酬。過去鮮少針對公有土地於標售後的開發決策進行分析。從資料以觀,市場上仍存有一定比例的標售土地尚未進行開發,本研究嘗試分析標售土地閒置或進行開發的因素。
本研究採取事後推估價格方式,以土地開發分析法所推估的土地開發分析價格作為市場價格。實證結果發現超過9成樣本呈現正值溢價,若缺乏評估標售土地市場價格,可能無法觀察標售土地的整體價格型態,進而無法合理評估標售土地價格溢酬。另一方面,透過都市土地最適開發時機模型分析開發決策。結果顯示不論已開發或尚未開發標售土地,持有土地的邊際收益幾乎皆大於邊際成本。實際上存有近7成土地尚未開發,若政府藉由調升地價稅促使土地開發,則需要調整204次,耗時612年。換言之,現行地價稅稅制無法有效促使土地開發。標售土地開發後平均可獲取利潤為原先取得成本的一倍之多。地主在不具有迫切的開發壓力下,於選擇上仍可透過開發實現利得。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Prior research studying price premium of auctioned land mainly focused on the difference between reserve price and bid price. By estimating market price of auctioned land, we can further evaluate the price premium of auctioned land. In addition, few studies discussed the development decision of auctioned land. However, market has seen a significant amount of undeveloped land. We attempt to analyze the factors which determine auctioned land to be developed or remain idle.
By means of retrospective appraisal, we regard the price evaluated by the approach of land development analysis as the market price of auctioned land. The empirical result reveals that over 90% of auction samples indicate price premium which suggests the estimated market price is higher than bid price. In light of this finding, the lack of estimated market price of auctioned land prevent us from assessing price premium of auctioned land accurately.
Through the optimal timing of urban land development, we also examine the decision of land development. The result shows that the vast majority of both developed and undeveloped land have gained growth in value if they remain idle for a period of time prior to development. In fact, nearly 70% of auctioned land are still undeveloped. If the government aims to promote idle land to be developed by raising land value tax, it will take 612 years for the tax to be effective. Namely, increasing current land holding cost does not push much pressure on land owner to develop his land. Moreover, we find that the profits the land owners gain through transactions of land is more than the price they paid for it. In conclusion, the land owners can realize a handsome profit through developing under no financial pressure.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與研究目的 1
第二節 研究架構與流程 4
第二章 標售土地之市場價格 7
第一節 標售土地市場價格之定義 7
第二節 研究設計 10
第三節 實證分析 22
第三章 標售土地之開發決策 29
第一節 標售土地政策功能與特性 29
第二節 研究設計 31
第三節 標售土地之開發決策分析 38
第四章 結論與建議 48
第一節 結論 48
第二節 政策與研究建議 50
參考文獻 51
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1015330 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0102257017en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 價格溢酬zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 標售土地zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 開發決策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Price Premiumen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Auctioned Landen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Development Deisionen_US
dc.title (題名) 公有標售土地之價格溢酬與土地開發決策─以臺北市地區為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Price Premium and Development Decision of Public-auctioned Land─The Case of Taipei Cityen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1.王宏文,2010,「臺北市地價稅公平性研究」『行政暨政策學報』,51:47-76。
2.林子欽,2004,「土地市場研究的回顧與想法」『土地問題研究季刊』,3(3):31-41。
3.林鼎鈞,2004,「公有土地利用與管理問題分析」『土地問題研究季刊』,3(1):56-62。
4.林森田,2008,『土地經濟學』,台北,巨流政大書城總經銷。
5.林惠玲、陳正倉,2011,『應用統計學』,台北,雙葉書廊有限公司。
6.杜宇璇,2014,「土地標售之溢價率分析—以新莊副都心抵費地標售為例」,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文:台北。
7.卓輝華,2012,「國有土地標售不動產市場與價格之影響分析」『當代財政』,23:46-62。
8.卓輝華,1999,『不動產估價實務與理論』,台北,文笙書局。
9.徐士堯,2005,「土地開發分析法之探析」『土地問題研究季刊』4(2):81-88。
10.陳奉瑤、梁仁旭,2009,『不動產估價』,台北,巨流政大書城總經銷
11.張清溪、許嘉棟、劉鶯釧,吳聰敏,2004,『經濟學理論與實務』。
12.張菀玲,2011,「高雄市市地重劃抵費地標售價格溢價之評估」,國立台北大學不動產與城鄉環境學系碩士論文:台北。
13.黃方欣,2013,「反共有財是悲劇嗎?—土地產權的實證結果」,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文:台北。
14.曾瑀瑄,2014,「土地開發的產權僵局—土地開發的產權僵局」,國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文:台北。
15.劉厚連,2005,「我國公有土地私有化問題之制度分析」『土地問題研究季刊』,4(1) :70-76。
16.Byrne, P. (1996). Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-making in Property Development, 2nd ed., E. & F.N. Spon, London.
17.Chau, K. W., et al. (2010). "Do Unexpected Land Auction Outcomes Bring New Information to the Real Estate Market?" The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 40(4): 480-496.
18.Ching, S. and Y. Fu (2003). "Contestability of the urban land market: an event study of Hong Kong land auctions." Regional Science and Urban Economics 33(6): 695-720.
19.Colwell, D. M. and P. F. Colwell (2004). "The Timing of Development Revealed by the Market: An Options Approach." Appraisal Journal 72(2).
20.Colwell, P. F. and C. F. Sirmans (1978). "Area, time, centrality and the value of urban land." Land Economics: 514-519.
21.Evans, A. (1983). "The Determination of the Price of Land." Urban Studies 20(2): 119-129.
22.Evans, A. (2004). "Economcis, Real Estate and the Supply of Land", Blackwell Publishing
23.Gwin, C., et al. (2005). "Auctions and land values: An experimental analysis." Urban Studies 42(12): 2245-2259.
24.Glaeser, E. L., et al. (2003). "Why is Manhattan so expensive? Regulation and the rise in house prices." National Bureau of Economic Research.
25.Levin, E. J. and Pryce, G. B. J. (2007)." A Statistical Explanation for Extreme Bids in the House Market." Urban Studies. 44(12): 2339-2355.
26.Lin, T.-C. and A. W. Evans (2000). "The relationship between the price of land and size of plot when plots are small." Land Economics: 386-394.
27.Lin. T.-C. and Jhen (2009)."Inequity of land valuation in the highly developed city of Taipei, Taiwan." Land Use Policy. 26(3): 662-668.
28.Lin. T.-C. (2010)."Property tax inequity resulting from inaccurate assessment-The Taiwan experence." Land Use Policy. 27(2): 511-517.
29.Man, K. and C. Ng (2007). "An Empirical Study of Valuation Accuracy and Variation in Hong Kong Land Auctions." Appraisal Journal 75(3):253-263.
30.Needham, B. (1981). "A Neo-classical Supply-based Approach to Land Prices." Urban Studies 18(1): 91-104.
31.Neutze, M. (1987). "The Supply of Land for a Particular Use." Urban Studies 24(5): 379-388.
32.Oates, Wallace E. and Schwab, Robert M. (1997). "The Impact of Urban Land Taxation: The Pittsburgh Experience." National Tax Journal 50(1): 1-21.
33.Ooi, J. T. and C. Sirmans (2004). "The wealth effects of land acquisition." The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 29(3): 277-294.
34.Qu, W. and X. Liu (2012). "Assessing the Performance of Chinese Land Lease Auctions: Evidence from Beijing." Journal of Real Estate Research 34(3): 291-310.
35.Shoup, D. C. (1970). "The optimal timing of urban land development." Papers in Regional Science 25(1): 33-44.
36.Somerville, C. T. (1996). "The contribution of land and structure to builder profits and house prices." Journal of Housing Research 7: 127-141.
37.Wheaton, W. C. and W. E. Simonton (2007). "The secular and cyclic behavior of “True” construction costs." Journal of Real Estate Research 29(1): 1-26.
zh_TW