1. NCCU Academic Hub
  2. 學術產出
  3. College of Social Science
  4. Books & Chapters in Books
  5. Item

學術產出-Books & Chapters in Books

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

政大圖書館

Citation Infomation

題名 Spatial Modeling of Agent-based Prediction Markets: Role of Individuals
作者 陳樹衡;Chie, Bin-Tzong
Chen, Shu-Heng;Chie, Bin-Tzong
貢獻者 經濟系
日期 2015-09
上傳時間 16-Mar-2016 15:45:37 (UTC+8)
摘要 In this paper, we extend the spatial agent-based prediction market proposed by Yu and Chen at MABS 2011 into a spatial model in which agents choose their community (neighbors) by following Schelling’s proximity model. This extended model generalizes the spatial configuration of the original model and enables us to examine the validity of the Hayek hypothesis when the information distribution is determined by clusters of agents with heterogeneous identities. Specifically, we examine the role of the toleration capacity, the key parameter in the Schelling model, which generates the clusters of agents with different sizes, and the role of exploration capacity which determines how well an agent is informed about his local surroundings. We find that after taking into account market activity and price volatility, both the toleration capacity and exploration capacity have a positive effect on the prediction accuracy and enhance information polling and the information aggregation of markets. The results obtained in this agent-based simulation, therefore, add a qualification to the well-known Hayek hypothesis and point to the significance of individuals in information aggregation.
關聯 Multi-Agent-Based Simulation XV, 197-212
資料類型 book/chapter
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-14627-0_14
dc.contributor 經濟系
dc.creator (作者) 陳樹衡;Chie, Bin-Tzongzh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chen, Shu-Heng;Chie, Bin-Tzong
dc.date (日期) 2015-09
dc.date.accessioned 16-Mar-2016 15:45:37 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 16-Mar-2016 15:45:37 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 16-Mar-2016 15:45:37 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/82678-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In this paper, we extend the spatial agent-based prediction market proposed by Yu and Chen at MABS 2011 into a spatial model in which agents choose their community (neighbors) by following Schelling’s proximity model. This extended model generalizes the spatial configuration of the original model and enables us to examine the validity of the Hayek hypothesis when the information distribution is determined by clusters of agents with heterogeneous identities. Specifically, we examine the role of the toleration capacity, the key parameter in the Schelling model, which generates the clusters of agents with different sizes, and the role of exploration capacity which determines how well an agent is informed about his local surroundings. We find that after taking into account market activity and price volatility, both the toleration capacity and exploration capacity have a positive effect on the prediction accuracy and enhance information polling and the information aggregation of markets. The results obtained in this agent-based simulation, therefore, add a qualification to the well-known Hayek hypothesis and point to the significance of individuals in information aggregation.
dc.format.extent 2790654 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.relation (關聯) Multi-Agent-Based Simulation XV, 197-212
dc.title (題名) Spatial Modeling of Agent-based Prediction Markets: Role of Individuals
dc.type (資料類型) book/chapter
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1007/978-3-319-14627-0_14
dc.doi.uri (DOI) http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-14627-0_14