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題名 台灣地區發行公益彩券之成本效益分析
作者 張幸如
貢獻者 劉代洋
張幸如
關鍵詞 發行公益彩券之成本效益分析
日期 2000
上傳時間 31-Mar-2016 15:32:10 (UTC+8)
摘要 財政部委託台灣銀行發行公益彩券，發行彩券固然會產生效益，但也會帶來成本，對整體社會而言，究竟是產生正面效果或負面效果，必須做更進一步地探討。本研究是基於整體社會立場研究彩券，希望藉此瞭解台灣地區彩券發行所產生的社會效益和社會成本，比較發行彩券的社會效益及社會成本，並對彩券之政策提供建議。
     本研究根據國外文獻資料參考他們在計算彩券發行的效益及成本所採用的分類項目和計算方式，再依照我國現今的情況調整台灣地區發行彩券社會效益及社會成本所採用的分類項目和計算方式，由於台灣地區發行彩券目前正處於初期，大部分的社會成本尚未發生，本研究分成兩個階段來進行成本效益分析，第一階段是依照目前實際已發生的效益及成本來計算，此階段是指彩券發行前五期或一年之內，第二階段是對台灣目前尚未發生但未來可能會發生的社會成本加以估計，此階段是指彩券發行一年之後，以確保能夠更精確計算彩券發行的社會效益及社會成本。
     本研究除了針對問卷調查結果做分析之外，對於有形的社會效益及社會成本項目，則直接向政府相關單位索取資料並加以計算，對於可量化的無形社會效益及社會成本項目，則利用模擬的方法加以估計，使其接近真實的情況，最後加以總合作成本效益分析。
     根據問卷調查的結果及更進一步的探討，得到結論如下所列：
     一、民眾視彩券為一種娛樂產品，以娛樂者的心態購買彩券，因此，民眾對於彩券的購買都是自願性的。
     二、目前民眾均是使用零用錢或閒置的金錢去做消遣、娛樂性的花費，所以，購買彩券不致於會造成個人或家庭財務危機。
     三、大多數民眾購買彩券不會影響或改變其生活，購買彩券目前造成工作生產力降低的結果較小，且不會造成工作天數的減少。
     四、台灣地區彩券發行初期，由於沈溺賭博的現象幾乎不存在，所以，彩券發行初期為社會帶來的淨效益很大。
     五、台灣地區彩券發行一段時日之後，即使問題賭博逐漸明顯，彩券發行仍然為社會帶來淨效益，對整體社會仍然產生正面效果。
     台灣地區在彩券發行初期，甚至在彩券發行一段時日之後，發行彩券所帶來的社會效益均大於社會成本，對整體社會有正面的效果，所以，發行機構可以增加彩券發行量，不僅對社會福利措施有所幫助亦可以增加政府的稅收。
參考文獻 中文部份
     1.中央政府總預算，行政院主計處，民國88年2月。
     2.中華民國統計月報，行政院主計處，頁14，民國89年3月。
     3.自由中國之工業，行政院經濟建設委員會，第九十卷，第三期，頁110-111，民國89年3月。
     4.稅法輯要，財政部，頁402-403，民國88年9月。
     5.劉代洋，彩券研究文集，台北 ，民國82年1月。
     6.警政統計月報，內政部警政署，頁108，民國89年1月。
     7.警察人員專業加給暨主管職務加給支付標準表，警政署刑事警察局。
     8.警察人員警勤加給支給標準表（修正合訂本），警政署刑事警察局。
     英文部份
     1. Alm, James, Michael Mckee, and Mark Skidmore, “ Fiscal Pressure , Tax Competition , and the Introduction of State Lotteries , ” National Tax Journal, Vol.46, No.4, pp.463-476(1993) .
     2. Anders, Gary C., “Estimating the Economic Impact of Indian Casino Gambling : A Case Study of the Fort McDowell Reservation , ”Essays in business, economics, philosophy and science, Institute for the Study of gambling : Public Policies and the Social Sciences, University of Navada, pp.233-245(1997) .
     3. Borg , Mary O., Paul M., Mason, and Stephen L. Shapiro, “ An Economic Comparison of Gambling Behavior in Atlantic City and Las Vegas , ”Public Finance Quarterly, Vol.18, No.3, pp.291-312(1990) .
     4. Brinner, Roger G. and Charles T. Clotfelter, “An Economic Analysis of Apraisal of State Lotteries , ”National Tax Journal, Vol.28, No.3, pp.395-404(1975) .
     5. Clotfelter, Charles T. and Philip J. Cook, Selling Hope : State Lotteries in America, Harvard University Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England, pp.120-135,208-230(1989) .
     6. Deboer, Larry, “ Administration Costs of State Lotteries , ”National Tax Journal, Vol.38, No.4, pp.479-488(1985) .
     7. Eadington, William R, “ The legalization of casinos : Policy objectives, regulatory alternatives , and cost/benefit considerations , ”Journal of Travel Research, Vol.34, No.3, pp.3-12, Winter(1996) .
     8. Eadington, William R, “ Econommic Perceptions of Gambling Behavior , ”Journal of Gambling Behavior, Vol.3, No.4, pp.264-273(1988) .
     9. Errol, Black, “ Gambling—Manitoba , ”Canadian Dimension, Vol.31, No.6, pp.21-25(1997) .
     10. Evans, Karen M., “ On-the-Job Lotteries : A Low-Cost Incentive That Sparks Higher Productivity , ” Personnel, Vol.65, No.4, pp.20-26, April(1998) .
     11. Farrell, Lisa and Walker, Ian, “ The Welfare Effects of Lotto : Evidence from the U. K. , ”Journal of Public Economics, Vol.72, No.1, pp.99-120(1999) .
     12. Friedman, Joseph, Simon Hakim, and J. Weinblatt, “ Casion Gambling as A Growth Pole Strategy and its Effect on Crime , ” Journal of Regional Science, Vol.29, No.4, pp.615-624(1989) .
     13. General Accounting Office(GAO), ” Impact of Gambling : Economic Effects More Measurable than Social Effects , ”GAO/GGD-00-78, Washington, D. C.(2000) . http://www.gao.gov/new.items/gg00078.pdf.
     14. Harrison, Ken, “ Economic Effects of Commercial Gaming in New Jersey , ”Essays in business , economics, philosophy and science, Institute for the Study of gambling and commercial gaming, University of Navada, pp.105-117(1992) .
     15. International Gambling & Wagering Business (IGWB),“Lottery efficiency study : A Delicate Balance , ”, Vol.20, No.4, pp.35-39, April 1999 .
     16. International Gambling & Wagering Business (IGWB), “ Market Outlook : Lottery , ”, Vol.20, No.8, pp.17, August 1999 .
     17. International Gambling & Wagering Business (IGWB), “ Market Outlook : Lottery , ”, Vol.20, No.9, pp.36, September 1999 .
     18. Larsen, Michael D., “ Gambling—Economic aspects—United States , Economic Development Review, Vol.13, No.4, pp.4-8(1995).
     19. Liu, Day-Yang, “ An Analysis of the Economic Impacts of Lottery in Taiwan , ”Essays in business, economics, philosophy and science, Institute for the Study of gambling : Public Policies and the Social Sciences, University of Navada, pp.173-181(1997) .
     20. Liu, Day-Yang, “An alternative for Raising a New Revenue for City of Local Government in Taiwan , ”National Science Foundation Project # NSC80-0301-H001-02(1991) .
     21. Mikesell, John L ., “ The effect of Maturity and Competition on State Lottery Markets , ” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Vol.6, No.2(1987) .
     22. Mikesell , John and Maureen A., “ State Lotteries and Crime : The Regressive Revenue Producer is Linked with a Crime Rate Higher by 3 Percent , ”American Journal of Economics & Sociology, Vol.49, No.1, pp.7-19(1990) .
     23. NASPL, “ Gambling in Canada , ” Cat. No. H68-40/1996E, the National Council of Welfare, Minister of Supply and Services Canada(1996) . http://www.ccsa.ca/gmbpref.htm
     24. Nichols, Mark, and B. Grant Stitt, “ Suicide and Divorce as Social Costs of Casino Gambling , ” Grant No. 98-IJ-CX-0037, the National Institute of Justice, University of Navada(1999) .
     25. NORC, “ Economic Analysis of Consequences of Gambling Problems among Adults , ” Gambling Impact and Behavior Study, National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, Report to the National Gambling Impact Study Commission(1999) . http://www.norc.uchicago.edu/new/gamb-fin.htm
     26. Persky, Joseph, Ph. D., “ Impact Studies , Cost-Benefit Analysis and Casinos , ” Journal of Gambling Studies, Vol.11, No.4, pp.349-360, Winter(1995) .
     27. Ryan, Timothy P., Janet F. Speyrer, Susan T. Beal, Daryl V. Burckel, Bobby R. Cunningham, Michael M. Kurth, Loren C. Scott, Jerry L. Wall, and James R. Westphal, “Gambling in Louisiana : A Benefit / Cost Analysis , ” College of Business : Division of Business and Economic Research, University of New Orleans(1999) . http://www.uno.edu/~coba/dber/gambling1998/
     28. Shaffer H .J., Hall M .N., and Belt J .V., “ Estimating the Prevalence of Disordered Gambling Behavior in the United States and Canada : A Meta-analysis , ” Harvard Medical School Division of Addiction, Boston, MA (1997) .
     29. Skea, Warren H., “ The Rationale of State Gambling Policy : The Case of On-Reserve Casinos in Canada , ” Essays in business, economics, philosophy and science, Institute for the Study of gambling : Public Policies and the Social Sciences, University of Navada, pp.255-265(1997) .
     30. Sprowls R. Clay, “ On the Terms of the New York State Lottery , ”National Tax Journal, Vol.23, No.1, pp.74-82(1970)
     31. Thompson, William Npinney, J KentSchibrowsky, John A, “ The family that gambles together : Business and social concerns , ” Journal of Travel Research, Vol.34, No.3, pp.70-79, Winter(1996) .
     32. Thompson,William and Shopodock, Philip,“Gambling-Wisconsin , ” Business Journal Serving Greater Milwaukee, Vol.13, No.43, pp.43-47(1996) .
     33. Volberg, R. A., Moore, W. L., Christiansen, E. M., Cummings, W., and Banks, S. M., “ Unaffordable Losses : Estimating the Proportion of Gambling Revenues Derived from Problem Gamblers , ” Gaming Law Review, Vol.2, No.4, pp. 349-360(1998) .
     34. Volberg, R. A., “Gambling and Problem Gaming in Oregon , ” A Report to the Oregon Gambling Addiction Treatment Foundation (1998) . http://www.gamblingaddiction.org/oregonreport/frame.htm
     35. Vrooman , David H., “An Economic of the New York State Lottery , ”, National Tax Journal, Vol.29, No.4, pp.482-490(1976) .
     36. Walker, Michael B., “ The Impact of Casinos in Urban Centres on Problem Gambling , ” Essays in business, economics, philosophy and science, Institute for the Study of gambling : Public Policies and the Social Sciences, University of Navada, pp.377-382(1997) .
     37. Walker, Ian, “ The Economic Analysis of Lotteries , ” Economic Policy, Vol.27, No.3, pp.357-401(1998) .
     38. Walker, M. B., and Dickerson, M. G., “ The Prevalence of Problem and Pathological Gambling : A Critical Analysis , ” Journal of Gambling Studies, Vol.12, No.2, pp.233-249(1996) .
     39. WEFA Group, “ The Financial Costs of Personal Bankruptcy , ” Burlington, MA, February(1998) . http://www.wefa.com/wefabkr.html
     40. Westphal, James R., Rush J., Stevens L., and Johnson L.J., “Gambling Behavior in Adolescents in Juvenile Detention in Louisiana , ” American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Anaheim, CA Oct. 27-Nov. 1(1998) .
     41. Westphal, James R., M. D., Lera Joyce Johnson, Ph. D. and Lee Stevens, M. D., “ Estimating the Social Costs of Gambling Disorders in Louisiana For 1998 , ”UNO # 313-20-4124, LSUMC-Shreveport Gambling Studies Unit, University of New Orleans(1999) .
     42. Westphal, J., Johnson L .J., Rush J.A., Stevens L., “ Gambling-related crime among adolescents in community , detention and prison populations in Louisiana , ” First Annual National Conference on Gambling sponsored by University of Nebraska-Omaha, Creighton University School of Law, April 26-May 1(1999) .
     43. Wilson, C. A., “ as reported in Marital Status : The Comprehensive On-Line Resource for Divorce and Remarriage , ”http://www.maritalstatus.com/divorce/articles/dividing-cover.html
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
87255024
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2002001839
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 劉代洋zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張幸如zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 張幸如zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2000en_US
dc.date.accessioned 31-Mar-2016 15:32:10 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 31-Mar-2016 15:32:10 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 31-Mar-2016 15:32:10 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) A2002001839en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/83270-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財政學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 87255024zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 財政部委託台灣銀行發行公益彩券，發行彩券固然會產生效益，但也會帶來成本，對整體社會而言，究竟是產生正面效果或負面效果，必須做更進一步地探討。本研究是基於整體社會立場研究彩券，希望藉此瞭解台灣地區彩券發行所產生的社會效益和社會成本，比較發行彩券的社會效益及社會成本，並對彩券之政策提供建議。
     本研究根據國外文獻資料參考他們在計算彩券發行的效益及成本所採用的分類項目和計算方式，再依照我國現今的情況調整台灣地區發行彩券社會效益及社會成本所採用的分類項目和計算方式，由於台灣地區發行彩券目前正處於初期，大部分的社會成本尚未發生，本研究分成兩個階段來進行成本效益分析，第一階段是依照目前實際已發生的效益及成本來計算，此階段是指彩券發行前五期或一年之內，第二階段是對台灣目前尚未發生但未來可能會發生的社會成本加以估計，此階段是指彩券發行一年之後，以確保能夠更精確計算彩券發行的社會效益及社會成本。
     本研究除了針對問卷調查結果做分析之外，對於有形的社會效益及社會成本項目，則直接向政府相關單位索取資料並加以計算，對於可量化的無形社會效益及社會成本項目，則利用模擬的方法加以估計，使其接近真實的情況，最後加以總合作成本效益分析。
     根據問卷調查的結果及更進一步的探討，得到結論如下所列：
     一、民眾視彩券為一種娛樂產品，以娛樂者的心態購買彩券，因此，民眾對於彩券的購買都是自願性的。
     二、目前民眾均是使用零用錢或閒置的金錢去做消遣、娛樂性的花費，所以，購買彩券不致於會造成個人或家庭財務危機。
     三、大多數民眾購買彩券不會影響或改變其生活，購買彩券目前造成工作生產力降低的結果較小，且不會造成工作天數的減少。
     四、台灣地區彩券發行初期，由於沈溺賭博的現象幾乎不存在，所以，彩券發行初期為社會帶來的淨效益很大。
     五、台灣地區彩券發行一段時日之後，即使問題賭博逐漸明顯，彩券發行仍然為社會帶來淨效益，對整體社會仍然產生正面效果。
     台灣地區在彩券發行初期，甚至在彩券發行一段時日之後，發行彩券所帶來的社會效益均大於社會成本，對整體社會有正面的效果，所以，發行機構可以增加彩券發行量，不僅對社會福利措施有所幫助亦可以增加政府的稅收。		zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 封面頁
     證明書
     致謝詞
     論文摘要
     目錄
     圖表目錄
     第一章 緒論
     第一節 研究動機與目的
     第二節 研究內容與方法
     第三節 本文架構與研究限制
     第二章 文獻回顧
     第一節 有關效益面的回顧
     第二節 有關成本面的回顧
     第三節 效益╱成本分析的總結
     第三章 研究方法
     第一節 問卷對象、抽樣調查、問卷發放與回收
     第二節 問卷調查結果分析
     第三節 資料來源
     第四章 台灣地區發行彩券效益╱成本的分類與計算
     第一節 有形效益與成本
     第二節 無形效益與成本
     第三節 台灣地區發行彩券社會整體成本效益分
     第四節 社會成本估計之模擬分析
     第五章 結論與建議
     第一節 結論
     第二節 建議
     參考文獻
     附錄		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2002001839en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 發行公益彩券之成本效益分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 台灣地區發行公益彩券之成本效益分析zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部份
     1.中央政府總預算，行政院主計處，民國88年2月。
     2.中華民國統計月報，行政院主計處，頁14，民國89年3月。
     3.自由中國之工業，行政院經濟建設委員會，第九十卷，第三期，頁110-111，民國89年3月。
     4.稅法輯要，財政部，頁402-403，民國88年9月。
     5.劉代洋，彩券研究文集，台北 ，民國82年1月。
     6.警政統計月報，內政部警政署，頁108，民國89年1月。
     7.警察人員專業加給暨主管職務加給支付標準表，警政署刑事警察局。
     8.警察人員警勤加給支給標準表（修正合訂本），警政署刑事警察局。
     英文部份
     1. Alm, James, Michael Mckee, and Mark Skidmore, “ Fiscal Pressure , Tax Competition , and the Introduction of State Lotteries , ” National Tax Journal, Vol.46, No.4, pp.463-476(1993) .
     2. Anders, Gary C., “Estimating the Economic Impact of Indian Casino Gambling : A Case Study of the Fort McDowell Reservation , ”Essays in business, economics, philosophy and science, Institute for the Study of gambling : Public Policies and the Social Sciences, University of Navada, pp.233-245(1997) .
     3. Borg , Mary O., Paul M., Mason, and Stephen L. Shapiro, “ An Economic Comparison of Gambling Behavior in Atlantic City and Las Vegas , ”Public Finance Quarterly, Vol.18, No.3, pp.291-312(1990) .
     4. Brinner, Roger G. and Charles T. Clotfelter, “An Economic Analysis of Apraisal of State Lotteries , ”National Tax Journal, Vol.28, No.3, pp.395-404(1975) .
     5. Clotfelter, Charles T. and Philip J. Cook, Selling Hope : State Lotteries in America, Harvard University Press Cambridge, Massachusetts London, England, pp.120-135,208-230(1989) .
     6. Deboer, Larry, “ Administration Costs of State Lotteries , ”National Tax Journal, Vol.38, No.4, pp.479-488(1985) .
     7. Eadington, William R, “ The legalization of casinos : Policy objectives, regulatory alternatives , and cost/benefit considerations , ”Journal of Travel Research, Vol.34, No.3, pp.3-12, Winter(1996) .
     8. Eadington, William R, “ Econommic Perceptions of Gambling Behavior , ”Journal of Gambling Behavior, Vol.3, No.4, pp.264-273(1988) .
     9. Errol, Black, “ Gambling—Manitoba , ”Canadian Dimension, Vol.31, No.6, pp.21-25(1997) .
     10. Evans, Karen M., “ On-the-Job Lotteries : A Low-Cost Incentive That Sparks Higher Productivity , ” Personnel, Vol.65, No.4, pp.20-26, April(1998) .
     11. Farrell, Lisa and Walker, Ian, “ The Welfare Effects of Lotto : Evidence from the U. K. , ”Journal of Public Economics, Vol.72, No.1, pp.99-120(1999) .
     12. Friedman, Joseph, Simon Hakim, and J. Weinblatt, “ Casion Gambling as A Growth Pole Strategy and its Effect on Crime , ” Journal of Regional Science, Vol.29, No.4, pp.615-624(1989) .
     13. General Accounting Office(GAO), ” Impact of Gambling : Economic Effects More Measurable than Social Effects , ”GAO/GGD-00-78, Washington, D. C.(2000) . http://www.gao.gov/new.items/gg00078.pdf.
     14. Harrison, Ken, “ Economic Effects of Commercial Gaming in New Jersey , ”Essays in business , economics, philosophy and science, Institute for the Study of gambling and commercial gaming, University of Navada, pp.105-117(1992) .
     15. International Gambling & Wagering Business (IGWB),“Lottery efficiency study : A Delicate Balance , ”, Vol.20, No.4, pp.35-39, April 1999 .
     16. International Gambling & Wagering Business (IGWB), “ Market Outlook : Lottery , ”, Vol.20, No.8, pp.17, August 1999 .
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