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題名 半總統制中準內閣制與內閣制政治運作比較
A Comparison of Quasi-Parlimentarism in Semi- Presidentialism and Parlimentarism in Political Practice作者 石鵬翔
Shih, Peng Hsiang貢獻者 王業立
Wang , Yeh Lih
石鵬翔
Shih, Peng Hsiang關鍵詞 內閣制
準內閣制
總理任期
無黨籍總理
有效政黨數目
總統總理同黨
衣尾效應
總統權力
Parlimentarism
Quasi-parlimentarism
Duration of Prime Minister
Non-party prime minister
Effective number of parties
President and prime minister in the same party
Coattail Effect of Presidential Election
Presidential Power日期 2016 上傳時間 1-Apr-2016 10:45:06 (UTC+8) 摘要 半總統制的運作特色是行政權力分別由總統和總理掌握，當半總統制的總統權力較小，就會由總理主導行政權力，此時半總統制的運作模式趨近於內閣制。但過去較少有文獻比較總統權力較小的半總統制國家，與內閣制國家的實際政治運作，是否有顯著的差異。本文先參照Wu(2012)的分類，選擇準內閣制做為總統權力較小的半總統制次類型，再與內閣制國家做比較。本文的研究結果，發現準內閣制與內閣制之間，在國會的有效政黨數目、無黨籍總理出現的機率、總統總理同黨的機率沒有顯著的差異。顯示準內閣制的總統如同Wu分類的定義，不會介入任命過程，另外，總統選舉的衣尾效應也無法使大黨的席次增加。在總理任期的比較方面，雖然兩種制度的總理任期沒有顯著的差異，不過準內閣制的總理遭遇提前選舉下台的風險，低於內閣制，且準內閣制的總理連任機率也低於內閣制。這些結果皆表示，準內閣制的總統雖然不會介入組閣過程，但有可能對於國會的選舉時程產生影響，使總理無法在最佳時機發動國會提前選舉，進一步降低總理的連任機率。綜合本文的研究發現，再對照過去的相關理論。半總統制與內閣制在實際運作上，仍然有一些差異。近年來，學界認為總統權力不是半總統制的重要條件，實際上，即使在總統權力較小的國家，總統權力可能還是有重要的影響。
The executive power in semi-presidentialism is shared by the president and prime minister where the prime minister will control executive power with a weak president, and the political practice will be like those found in parlimentarism. There are very few articles examining the difference between parlimentarism and semi-presidentialism with a weak president. This paper compares the political practice of semi-presidentialism with a weak president and parlimentarism in different countries. The case selection criteria of a weak president is based on Wu(2012). In his research, quasi-parlimentarism is a subtype of semi-presidentialism, that the president has weak power.The result of this research demonstrates that effective number of parties in parliamentary, probability of non-party prime minister, president and prime minister in the same party have no significant difference between two institutions. This means that in the quasi-parlimentarism the coattail effect of a presidential election does not ensure more seats for a large party, and the president has a weak power to appoint the cabinet. Although the duration of the term of a prime minister has no significant difference, the hazard of early election, and probability of prime minister renewal in quasi-parlimentarism is less than parlimentarism. This means that a president in quasi-parlimentarism has blocked dissolution of parliamentary, and the prime minister cannot call for an early election at his or her favorable time.In summary, the political practice of semi-presidentialism is different than parlimentarism. Presidential power is an important feature of semi-presidentialism, even in small presidential power, a semi-presidentialism country, and its president have great influence on politics.參考文獻 一、英文文獻Alt, James, and Gary King. 1994. "Transfers of Governmental Power: The Meaning of Time Dependence". Comparative Political Studies, 27, 2: 190-210. Amorim Neto, Octavio, and Gary Cox. 1997. "Electoral Institutions, Cleavage Structures, and the Number of Parties". American Journal of Political Science, 41, 1: 149-174. Amorim Neto, Octavio, and Kaare Strom. 2006. "Breaking the Parliamentary Chain of Delegation: Presidents and Non-partisan Cabinet Members in European Democracies". British Journal of Political Science, 36, 4: 619-643. Amotim Neto, Octavio, and Marina Costa Lobo. 2009. "Portugal`s Semi-Presidentialism: (Re)considered an Assessment of the President`s Role in the Policy Process, 1976-2006". European Journal of Political Research, 48: 234-255. Axlord, Robert. 1970. Conflict of Interest. Chicago: Markham.Cheibub, Jose, and Svitlana Chernykh. 2009. "Are Semi-Presidential Constitutions Bad for Democratic Preformance?". Constitutional Political Economy, 20: 202-229. Cheibub, Jose, Shane Martin, and Bjorn Eric Rasch. (2013). The Investiture Vote and the Formation of Minority Parliamentary Governments. Paper presented at the 7th ECPR General Conference, Bordeaux. Cox, Gary. 1997. Making Votes Count : strategic coordination in the world`s electoral system. NY: Cambridge University Press.Damgaard, Erik. 2008. "Cabinet Termination". in Kaare Strom, Wolfgang Muller and Bergman Torbjorn (eds.), Cabinets and Coalition Bargaining: The Democratic Life Cycle in Western Europe: 301-326 New York: Oxford University Press.Diermeier, Daniel , and Randy Stevenson. 1999. "Cabinet Survival and Competing Risks". American Journal of Political Science, 43, 4: 1051-1068. Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper.Drukman, James, and Paul Warwick. 2005. "The Missing Piece: Measuring Portfolio Salience in Western European Parliamentary Democracies". European Journal of Political Research, 44: 17-42. Duverger, Maurice. 1954. Political Party. London: Methuen.Duverger, Maurice. 1980. 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"The Effective Number of Parties: A New Approach". Party Politics, 16, 2: 171-192. Hicken, Allen, and Heather Stoll. 2012. "Are All Presidents Created Equal? Presidential Powers and the Shadow of Presidential Elections". Comparative Political Studies, 46, 3: 291-319. Kang, Shin-Goo. 2009. "The Influence of Presidential Heads of State on Government Formation in European Democracies: Empirical Evidence". European Journal of Political Research, 48: 543-572. King, Gary, James Alt, Nancy Burns, and Michaelo Laver. 1990. "A Unified Model of Cabinet Dissolution in Parliamentary Democracies". American Journal of Political Science, 34, 3: 846-871. Laakso, Markku, and Rein Taagepera. 1979. "Effective Number of Parties: A Measure with Application to West Europe". Comparative Political Studies, 12, 1: 3–27. Lijphart, Arend. 2004. "Constitution Design for Divided Societies". Journal of Democracy, 15, 2: 96-109. Lin, Jih-Wen. 2011. "The Rules of Electoral Competition and the Accountability of Semi-Presidential Governments". in Robert Elgie, Sophia Moestrup and Yu-Shan Wu (eds.), Semi-Presidentialism and Democracy: 61-80 New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Linz, Juan. 1990. "The Perils of Presidentialism". Journal of Democracy, 1, 1: 51-69. Linz, Juan. 1994. "Presidential or Parliamentary Democracy". in Juan Linz and Arturo Valenzuela (Ed.), The Failure of Presidential Democracy: 3-87 Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Lupia, Arthur, and Kaare Strom. 1995. "Coalition Termination and the Strategic: Timing of Parliamentary Elections". American Political Science Review, 89, 3: 648-665. Mikhail, Filippov, Peter Ordeshook, and Olga Shvetsova. 1999. "Party Fragmentation and Presidential Elections in Post-Communist Democracies". Constitutional Political Economy, 10: 3-26. Moestrup, Sophia. 2007. "Semi-presidentialism in Young Democracies: Help or Hindrance?". in Robert Elgie and Sophia Moestrup (Ed.), Semi-presidentialism Outside Europe: A Comparative Study: 30-55 Oxon: Routledge.Muller, Wofgang, Torbjorn Bergman, and Kaare Strom. 2008. "Coalition Theory and Cabinet Governance: An Introduction". in Kaare Strom, Wofgang Muller and Torbjorn Bergman (eds.), Cabinets and Coalition Bargaining: The Democratic Life Cycle in Western Europe New York: Oxford University Press.Narud, Hanne Marthe, and Henry Vaen. 2008. "Coalition Membership and Electoral Performance". in Kaare Storm, Wolfgang Muller and Torbjorn Bergman (eds.), Cabinets and Coalition Bargaining: The Democratic Life Cycle in Western Europe New York: Oxford University Press.Nohlen, Dieter, Florian Grotz, and Christor Hartmann. 2001. Elections in Asia and the Pacific: a data handbook: Oxford University Press.Nohlen, Dieter, Michael Krennerich, and Berhard Thibaut. 1999. 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國立政治大學
政治學系
99252506資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099252506 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 王業立 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Wang , Yeh Lih en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 石鵬翔 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Shih, Peng Hsiang en_US dc.creator (作者) 石鵬翔 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Shih, Peng Hsiang en_US dc.date (日期) 2016 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Apr-2016 10:45:06 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Apr-2016 10:45:06 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Apr-2016 10:45:06 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0099252506 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/83558 - dc.description (描述) 博士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 政治學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 99252506 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 半總統制的運作特色是行政權力分別由總統和總理掌握，當半總統制的總統權力較小，就會由總理主導行政權力，此時半總統制的運作模式趨近於內閣制。但過去較少有文獻比較總統權力較小的半總統制國家，與內閣制國家的實際政治運作，是否有顯著的差異。本文先參照Wu(2012)的分類，選擇準內閣制做為總統權力較小的半總統制次類型，再與內閣制國家做比較。本文的研究結果，發現準內閣制與內閣制之間，在國會的有效政黨數目、無黨籍總理出現的機率、總統總理同黨的機率沒有顯著的差異。顯示準內閣制的總統如同Wu分類的定義，不會介入任命過程，另外，總統選舉的衣尾效應也無法使大黨的席次增加。在總理任期的比較方面，雖然兩種制度的總理任期沒有顯著的差異，不過準內閣制的總理遭遇提前選舉下台的風險，低於內閣制，且準內閣制的總理連任機率也低於內閣制。這些結果皆表示，準內閣制的總統雖然不會介入組閣過程，但有可能對於國會的選舉時程產生影響，使總理無法在最佳時機發動國會提前選舉，進一步降低總理的連任機率。綜合本文的研究發現，再對照過去的相關理論。半總統制與內閣制在實際運作上，仍然有一些差異。近年來，學界認為總統權力不是半總統制的重要條件，實際上，即使在總統權力較小的國家，總統權力可能還是有重要的影響。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The executive power in semi-presidentialism is shared by the president and prime minister where the prime minister will control executive power with a weak president, and the political practice will be like those found in parlimentarism. There are very few articles examining the difference between parlimentarism and semi-presidentialism with a weak president. This paper compares the political practice of semi-presidentialism with a weak president and parlimentarism in different countries. The case selection criteria of a weak president is based on Wu(2012). In his research, quasi-parlimentarism is a subtype of semi-presidentialism, that the president has weak power.The result of this research demonstrates that effective number of parties in parliamentary, probability of non-party prime minister, president and prime minister in the same party have no significant difference between two institutions. This means that in the quasi-parlimentarism the coattail effect of a presidential election does not ensure more seats for a large party, and the president has a weak power to appoint the cabinet. Although the duration of the term of a prime minister has no significant difference, the hazard of early election, and probability of prime minister renewal in quasi-parlimentarism is less than parlimentarism. This means that a president in quasi-parlimentarism has blocked dissolution of parliamentary, and the prime minister cannot call for an early election at his or her favorable time.In summary, the political practice of semi-presidentialism is different than parlimentarism. Presidential power is an important feature of semi-presidentialism, even in small presidential power, a semi-presidentialism country, and its president have great influence on politics. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節、研究動機 1第二節、章節安排 4第二章 準內閣制和內閣制 7第一節、半總統制和內閣制的模糊界線 7第二節、總統權力較小的半總統制是否等同於內閣制？ 12第三章 研究設計 21第一節、研究範圍 21第二節、分析架構 25第三節、依變數與統計方法 27第四節、資料來源 32第肆章 總統直選與政黨體系 35第一節、總統直選與政黨合作 35第二節、控制變數 42第三節、資料分析 45第四節、小結 48第伍章 總理任命和政府組成 51第一節、任命總理的理論 51第二節、控制變數 55第三節、資料分析 57第四節、小結 67第陸章 總理任期的比較 69第一節、總理任期 69第二節、準內閣制和內閣制的提前選舉78第三節、總理連任 90第四節、控制變數 96第五節、資料分析 101第六節、小結 113第柒章 結論 115第一節、研究假設與結果 115第二節、研究貢獻 117第三節、研究限制和未來的研究方向 120參考資料 122 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2252453 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0099252506 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 內閣制 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 準內閣制 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總理任期 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 無黨籍總理 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 有效政黨數目 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總統總理同黨 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 衣尾效應 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 總統權力 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Parlimentarism en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Quasi-parlimentarism en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Duration of Prime Minister en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Non-party prime minister en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Effective number of parties en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) President and prime minister in the same party en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Coattail Effect of Presidential Election en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Presidential Power en_US dc.title (題名) 半總統制中準內閣制與內閣制政治運作比較 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A Comparison of Quasi-Parlimentarism in Semi- Presidentialism and Parlimentarism in Political Practice en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、英文文獻Alt, James, and Gary King. 1994. 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