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題名 我國上市公司分析師盈餘預測與盈餘管理關聯性之實證研究
An Empirical Study of the Association between Analysts` Forecast and Earnings Management
作者 紅立勝
貢獻者 郭弘卿
紅立勝
關鍵詞 盈餘預測
市場預期
預期差距
盈餘管理
earnings forecasts
market expectations
forecast deviation
earnings management
日期 2001
上傳時間 15-Apr-2016 16:11:01 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究旨在探討我國一般產業之上市公司，其分析師盈餘預測與管理當局盈餘預測間之差異，並且檢視在資本市場中是否具有抑制公司經理人員任意發佈預測之機制。除此之外，亦檢測市場達成共識之程度是否為管理者盈餘管理之誘因，以及其盈餘管理的程度與方向。
I test a market expectations and market consensus hypothesis about earnings management in Taiwan`s public firms from 1996 to 1999. First of all, no matter what a good news or bad news that managers spread in markets is the result of earnings management. Furthermore, when analysts have reached a consensus in their earnings forecasts, managers` earnings forecasts are close to market expectations as possible. At the same time, managers also have an incentive to manage earnings through discretionary accruals to achieve market expectations. Finally, all sample-corporations are split into two groups. Group 1 observations have nondiscretionary earnings below the mean analysts` forecast, and Group 2 observations have nondiscretionary earnings above the mean analysts` forecast. The results suggest the corporation managers in Group 1 make greater use of discretionary accruals to manipulate earnings to achieve market expectations when analysts have reached a consensus in their earnings predictions. Oppositely, the corporation managers in Group 2 make less use of discretionary accruals to save them in use of next period when analysts lacks consensus in their earnings forecasts.
參考文獻 一、中文部分
王脩斐，1996，盈餘管理偵測模型之評估，政治大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
何印唐，1998，我國上市公司盈餘管理行為之研究，政治大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
沈維民，1997，企業之盈餘管理：以會計方法選用和應計項目認列為例，管理評論，第16卷，第1期：11-38頁。
宋義德，1996，管理當局自願性財務預測準確性與資訊內涵之研究，政治大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
林煜宗與汪健全，1994，財務分析師與管理當局盈餘預估準確性之比較，證券市場發展季刊，第22卷，第1期：205-215頁。
官心怡，1994，經理人員盈餘預測與盈餘操縱之關聯性，台灣大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
周淑貞，1996，管理當局持股比率與管理當局盈餘預測準確度、盈餘管理關係之實證研究，政治大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
吳安妮與方智強，1997，台灣經理人員主動揭露盈餘預測之實證研究，會計評論，第30期：253-269頁。
吳安妮，1993，財務分析師、管理當局、及統計模式預測準確度之比較，管理評論，第12卷，第1期：1-48頁。
吳安妮，1991，經理人自願揭露盈餘預測資訊給外界之決定因素─實證研究，會計評論，第25期：1-24頁。
胡永純，1997，盈餘預測與盈餘管理之關聯性研究，中興大學會計系碩士班未出版碩士論文。
唐月玲，1994，同一產業內管理當局自願性盈餘預測揭露之預測信號與資訊移轉，東吳大學會計系碩士班未出版碩士論文。
陳志愷，1992，盈餘反應係數探索性之研究─台灣股票市場之實證分析，政治大學會計學研究所出版碩士論文。
陳玄晃，1998，台灣上市公司盈餘預測與盈餘操縱之關聯性研究，東海大學管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
郭伯疆，1996，強制性財務預測修正決策與盈餘管理關係之研究，政治大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
黃惠君，1995，公司上市前後盈餘操縱與上市後營運績效及盈餘操縱動機之關聯性研究，台灣大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
張永芳，1999，強制性財務預測與盈餘管理關係之研究20%門檻限制之影響，彰化師範大學商業教育學系碩士班未出版論文。
管夢欣，1993，長期性資產出售交易與盈餘操縱行為之關聯性實證研究，台灣大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
顏月珠，1990，商用統計學，三民書局。
蘇逸穎，1999，本期盈餘、預期未來盈餘和盈餘操縱之關聯性，台灣大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
二、英文部分
Abarbanell, J., and R. Lehavy. 1998. Can Stock Recommendations Predict Earnings Management and Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Error? Working paper. University of California at Berkeley, CA.
Aharony, J., C. J. Lin, and M. P. Loeb. 1993. Initial Public Offerings, Accounting Choices, and Earnings Management. Contemporary Accounting Research 10 (Fall): 61-81.
Bannister, J. W., and H. A. Newman. 1992. Management Forecasts as Targets for Earnings Management. Working paper. University of Illinois at Chicago, IL.
Beaver, W. H. 1998. Financial Reporting: An Accounting Revolution. 3rd ed. Prentice-Hall.
Becker, C. L., M. L. DeFond, J. Jiambalvo, and K. R. Subramanyam. 1998. The Effect of Audit Quality on Earnings Management. Contemporary Accounting Research 15 (Spring): 1-24.
Burgstahler, D., and I. Dichev. 1997. Earnings Management to Avoid Earnings Decreases and Losses. Journal of Accounting Research 24 (Spring): 99-126.
Burgstahler, D., and M. Eames. 1998. Management of Earnings and Analysts Forecasts. Working paper, University of Washington, WA.
Collins, J. H., D. A. Shackelford, and J. M. Wahln, 1995. Bank Differences in the Coordination of Regulatory Capital, Earnings, and Taxes. Journal of Accounting Research 33 (Fall): 263-291.
DeAngelo, L. E. 1986. Accounting Numbers as Markets Valuation Substitutes: A Study of Management Buyouts of Public Stockholders. The Accounting Review 61 (July): 400-420.
DeAngelo, L. E. 1988. Managerial Competition, Information Costs, and Corporate Governance: The Use of Accounting Performance Measures in Proxy Contests. Journal of accounting and Economics 10 (January): 3-36.
Dechow, P. M. 1994. Accounting Earnings and Cash Flows as Measures of Firm Performance: The Role of Accounting Accruals. Journal of accounting and Economics 17 (January): 3-42.
Dechow, P. M., R. Sloan, and A. Sweeny. 1995. Detecting Earnings Management. The Accounting Review 70 (April): 193-226.
DeFond, M., and C. W. Park. 1997. Smoothing Income in Anticipation of Future Earnings. Journal of accounting and Economics 23 (July): 115-139.
DeFond, M., and J. Jiambalvo. 1994. Debt Covenant Violation and Manipulation of Accruals. Journal of accounting and Economics 17 (January): 145-176.
DeFond, M. L., and K. R. Subramanyam. 1998. Auditor Changes and Discretionary Accruals. Journal of accounting and Economics 25 (February): 35-67.
Degeorge, F., J. Patel, and R. Zeckhauser. 1999. Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds. Journal of Business 72 (January):1-33.
Friedlan, J. 1994. Accounting Choices by Issuers of Initial Offerings. Contemporary Accounting Research 11 (Spring): 1-31.
Guay, W. P., S. P. Kothari, and R. L. Watts. 1996. A Market-Based Evaluation of Discretionary Accruals Models. Journal of Accounting Research 34 (Supplement): 83-105.
Han, J. C. Y., and J. J. Wild. 1991. Stock Price Behavior Associated with Managers’ Earnings and Revenue Forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 29 (Spring): 79-95.
Hansen, S. C., and J. S. Watts. 1997. Two Models of the Auditor-Client Interaction: Tests with United Kingdom Data. Contemporary Accounting Research 14 (Summer): 23-50.
Healy, P. M. 1985. The Impact of Bonus Schemes on the Selection of Accounting Principles. Journal of Accounting Research 34 (Supplement): 107-115.
Imhoff, E. A. 1978. The Representativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts. The Accounting Review 53 (October): 836-850.
Jaggi, B. 1978. A Note on Information Content of Corporate Annual Earnings Forecasts. The Accounting Review 53 (October): 961-969.
Jaggi, B. 1980. Future Evidence on the Accuracy of Management Forecasts vis-& agrave;-vis Analysts’ Forecast. The Accounting Review 55 (January): 96-101.
Jones, J. 1991. Earnings Management during Import Relief Investigations. The Accounting Review 61 (Autumn): 193-228.
Kasznik, R. 1999. On the Association between Voluntary Disclosure and Earnings Management. Journal of Accounting Research 37 (Spring): 57-82.
Liberty, S. E., and J. L. Zimmerman. 1986. Labor Union Contract Negotiations and Accounting Choices. The Accounting Review (October): 692-712.
Liu, S. Z. 1997. The Determinants of Loan Impairment Recognized by the U.S. Bank Holding Companies. The Chinese Accounting Review 30 : 33-77.
McNichols, M., and G. P. Wilson. 1988. Evidence of Earnings Management from the Provision for Bad Debts. Journal of Accounting Research 26 ( Supplement): 1-31.
Moyer, S. 1990. Capital Adequacy Ratio Regulations and Accounting Choices in Commercial Banks. Journal of Accounting Research 13 (Spring): 123-154.
Robb, S. W. G. 1998. The Effect of Analysts’ Forecasts on Earnings Management in Financial Institutions. The Journal of Financial Research (Fall): 315-331.
Schipper, K. 1989. Commentary On Earning Management. Accounting Horizons 3 (December): 91-102.
Scholes, M. S., G. P. Wilson, and M. A. Wolfson. 1990. Tax Planning, Regulatory Capital Planning, and Financial Reporting Strategy for Commercial Banks. The Review of Financial Studies 13: 625-650.
Subramanyam, K. R. 1996. The Pricing of Discretionary Accruals. Journal of accounting and Economics 22: 249-281.
Teoh, S. H., I. Welch, and T. J. Wong. 1998. Earnings Management and the Underperformance of Seasoned Equity Offerings. Journal of Financial Economics 50 (October): 63-99.
Teoh, S. H., T. J. Wong, and G. R. Rao. 1998. Are Accruals during Initial Public Offerings Opportunistic? Review of Accounting Studies 3: 175-208.
Warfiedld, T. D., J. J. Wild, and K. L. Wild. 1995. Managerial Ownership, Accounting Choices, and Informativeness of Earnings. Journal of accounting and Economics 20 (July): 61-91.
Watts, R., and J. Zimmerman. 1986. Positive Accounting Theory. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Watts, L. W., and J. L. Zimmerman. 1978. Toward a Positive Accounting Theory of Determination of Accounting Standards. The Accounting Review 53 (January): 112-134.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2002001374
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 郭弘卿zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 紅立勝zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 紅立勝zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2001en_US
dc.date.accessioned 15-Apr-2016 16:11:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 15-Apr-2016 16:11:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 15-Apr-2016 16:11:01 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) A2002001374en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/85161-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計學系zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究旨在探討我國一般產業之上市公司，其分析師盈餘預測與管理當局盈餘預測間之差異，並且檢視在資本市場中是否具有抑制公司經理人員任意發佈預測之機制。除此之外，亦檢測市場達成共識之程度是否為管理者盈餘管理之誘因，以及其盈餘管理的程度與方向。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) I test a market expectations and market consensus hypothesis about earnings management in Taiwan`s public firms from 1996 to 1999. First of all, no matter what a good news or bad news that managers spread in markets is the result of earnings management. Furthermore, when analysts have reached a consensus in their earnings forecasts, managers` earnings forecasts are close to market expectations as possible. At the same time, managers also have an incentive to manage earnings through discretionary accruals to achieve market expectations. Finally, all sample-corporations are split into two groups. Group 1 observations have nondiscretionary earnings below the mean analysts` forecast, and Group 2 observations have nondiscretionary earnings above the mean analysts` forecast. The results suggest the corporation managers in Group 1 make greater use of discretionary accruals to manipulate earnings to achieve market expectations when analysts have reached a consensus in their earnings predictions. Oppositely, the corporation managers in Group 2 make less use of discretionary accruals to save them in use of next period when analysts lacks consensus in their earnings forecasts.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 封面頁
證明書
致謝詞
論文摘要
目錄
圖表目錄
第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機與目的
第二節 研究主題與貢獻
第三節 研究架構
第二章 文獻回顧
第一節 盈餘管理的基本架構
第二節 應計項目之使用
第三節 市場反應與經理人員盈餘管理之關係
第四節 預期差距之衡量
第三章 研究方法
第一節 研究假說
第二節 變數之衡量與實證設計
第三節 資料分析方法
第四節 資料來源與處理
第五節 樣本與資料年份
第四章 實證研究結果
第一節 敘述性統計分析
第二節 多變量分析與結果
第三節 複迴歸分析之各項假設檢定
第五章 結論與建議
第一節 研究結論
第二節 研究限制
第三節 對後續研究之建議
參考文獻		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2002001374en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 盈餘預測zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 市場預期zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預期差距zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 盈餘管理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) earnings forecastsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) market expectationsen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) forecast deviationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) earnings managementen_US
dc.title (題名) 我國上市公司分析師盈餘預測與盈餘管理關聯性之實證研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) An Empirical Study of the Association between Analysts` Forecast and Earnings Managementen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分
王脩斐，1996，盈餘管理偵測模型之評估，政治大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
何印唐，1998，我國上市公司盈餘管理行為之研究，政治大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
沈維民，1997，企業之盈餘管理：以會計方法選用和應計項目認列為例，管理評論，第16卷，第1期：11-38頁。
宋義德，1996，管理當局自願性財務預測準確性與資訊內涵之研究，政治大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
林煜宗與汪健全，1994，財務分析師與管理當局盈餘預估準確性之比較，證券市場發展季刊，第22卷，第1期：205-215頁。
官心怡，1994，經理人員盈餘預測與盈餘操縱之關聯性，台灣大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
周淑貞，1996，管理當局持股比率與管理當局盈餘預測準確度、盈餘管理關係之實證研究，政治大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
吳安妮與方智強，1997，台灣經理人員主動揭露盈餘預測之實證研究，會計評論，第30期：253-269頁。
吳安妮，1993，財務分析師、管理當局、及統計模式預測準確度之比較，管理評論，第12卷，第1期：1-48頁。
吳安妮，1991，經理人自願揭露盈餘預測資訊給外界之決定因素─實證研究，會計評論，第25期：1-24頁。
胡永純，1997，盈餘預測與盈餘管理之關聯性研究，中興大學會計系碩士班未出版碩士論文。
唐月玲，1994，同一產業內管理當局自願性盈餘預測揭露之預測信號與資訊移轉，東吳大學會計系碩士班未出版碩士論文。
陳志愷，1992，盈餘反應係數探索性之研究─台灣股票市場之實證分析，政治大學會計學研究所出版碩士論文。
陳玄晃，1998，台灣上市公司盈餘預測與盈餘操縱之關聯性研究，東海大學管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
郭伯疆，1996，強制性財務預測修正決策與盈餘管理關係之研究，政治大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
黃惠君，1995，公司上市前後盈餘操縱與上市後營運績效及盈餘操縱動機之關聯性研究，台灣大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
張永芳，1999，強制性財務預測與盈餘管理關係之研究20%門檻限制之影響，彰化師範大學商業教育學系碩士班未出版論文。
管夢欣，1993，長期性資產出售交易與盈餘操縱行為之關聯性實證研究，台灣大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
顏月珠，1990，商用統計學，三民書局。
蘇逸穎，1999，本期盈餘、預期未來盈餘和盈餘操縱之關聯性，台灣大學會計學研究所未出版碩士論文。
二、英文部分
Abarbanell, J., and R. Lehavy. 1998. Can Stock Recommendations Predict Earnings Management and Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Error? Working paper. University of California at Berkeley, CA.
Aharony, J., C. J. Lin, and M. P. Loeb. 1993. Initial Public Offerings, Accounting Choices, and Earnings Management. Contemporary Accounting Research 10 (Fall): 61-81.
Bannister, J. W., and H. A. Newman. 1992. Management Forecasts as Targets for Earnings Management. Working paper. University of Illinois at Chicago, IL.
Beaver, W. H. 1998. Financial Reporting: An Accounting Revolution. 3rd ed. Prentice-Hall.
Becker, C. L., M. L. DeFond, J. Jiambalvo, and K. R. Subramanyam. 1998. The Effect of Audit Quality on Earnings Management. Contemporary Accounting Research 15 (Spring): 1-24.
Burgstahler, D., and I. Dichev. 1997. Earnings Management to Avoid Earnings Decreases and Losses. Journal of Accounting Research 24 (Spring): 99-126.
Burgstahler, D., and M. Eames. 1998. Management of Earnings and Analysts Forecasts. Working paper, University of Washington, WA.
Collins, J. H., D. A. Shackelford, and J. M. Wahln, 1995. Bank Differences in the Coordination of Regulatory Capital, Earnings, and Taxes. Journal of Accounting Research 33 (Fall): 263-291.
DeAngelo, L. E. 1986. Accounting Numbers as Markets Valuation Substitutes: A Study of Management Buyouts of Public Stockholders. The Accounting Review 61 (July): 400-420.
DeAngelo, L. E. 1988. Managerial Competition, Information Costs, and Corporate Governance: The Use of Accounting Performance Measures in Proxy Contests. Journal of accounting and Economics 10 (January): 3-36.
Dechow, P. M. 1994. Accounting Earnings and Cash Flows as Measures of Firm Performance: The Role of Accounting Accruals. Journal of accounting and Economics 17 (January): 3-42.
Dechow, P. M., R. Sloan, and A. Sweeny. 1995. Detecting Earnings Management. The Accounting Review 70 (April): 193-226.
DeFond, M., and C. W. Park. 1997. Smoothing Income in Anticipation of Future Earnings. Journal of accounting and Economics 23 (July): 115-139.
DeFond, M., and J. Jiambalvo. 1994. Debt Covenant Violation and Manipulation of Accruals. Journal of accounting and Economics 17 (January): 145-176.
DeFond, M. L., and K. R. Subramanyam. 1998. Auditor Changes and Discretionary Accruals. Journal of accounting and Economics 25 (February): 35-67.
Degeorge, F., J. Patel, and R. Zeckhauser. 1999. Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds. Journal of Business 72 (January):1-33.
Friedlan, J. 1994. Accounting Choices by Issuers of Initial Offerings. Contemporary Accounting Research 11 (Spring): 1-31.
Guay, W. P., S. P. Kothari, and R. L. Watts. 1996. A Market-Based Evaluation of Discretionary Accruals Models. Journal of Accounting Research 34 (Supplement): 83-105.
Han, J. C. Y., and J. J. Wild. 1991. Stock Price Behavior Associated with Managers’ Earnings and Revenue Forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research 29 (Spring): 79-95.
Hansen, S. C., and J. S. Watts. 1997. Two Models of the Auditor-Client Interaction: Tests with United Kingdom Data. Contemporary Accounting Research 14 (Summer): 23-50.
Healy, P. M. 1985. The Impact of Bonus Schemes on the Selection of Accounting Principles. Journal of Accounting Research 34 (Supplement): 107-115.
Imhoff, E. A. 1978. The Representativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts. The Accounting Review 53 (October): 836-850.
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Jaggi, B. 1980. Future Evidence on the Accuracy of Management Forecasts vis-& agrave;-vis Analysts’ Forecast. The Accounting Review 55 (January): 96-101.
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