| dc.contributor.advisor | 鄭宇庭<br>吳柏林 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 吳珮菁 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | Wu, Pei-Ching | en_US |
| dc.creator (作者) | 吳珮菁 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | Wu, Pei-Ching | en_US |
| dc.date (日期) | 1998 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 21-Apr-2016 09:54:59 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 21-Apr-2016 09:54:59 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 21-Apr-2016 09:54:59 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | B2002001559 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/85888 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 統計學系 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 86354019 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 近年來，民意調查有廣泛使用在預測競選期間選情動向的趨勢，試將問卷設計為探討選民們投票理念與投票行為意圖，以預測選民投票意向。但現實社會裡，並不能以二元邏輯的觀念來劃分人類的思想理念與行為意圖，因為人類的思維、決策、行為中都包含模糊不確定性與非定量化的特質，即集合中元素的隸屬度假若是模糊不確定的，非完全屬於此集合又非完全不屬於此集合，則二元邏輯觀念可能無法詳盡地探訴事件本身所具代表的真相，將會扭曲它背後隱藏的因素意義，故欲應用多元邏輯更精確地描述人類不確定性的模糊特質。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | Public opinion survey has played an important role and has been utilized in forcasting an election campaign. Trying to get an unbiased and reliable forcast that best explain voters behavior, researchers have put a tremendous effort in designing the survey questions trying to capture the true essence of voters intention and action. In this paper, we apply logic of fuzzy theory to extract the voters inclination to vote for any candidate in the event of uncertainty surrounding the voters that may affect his or her voting decision. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 壹、前言 1貳、模糊統計 32.1模糊邏輯 32.2模糊集合 42.3模糊權重 6參、選情預測與模糊統計分析 73.1問卷設計與統計分析方式 73.2樣本代表性檢定及樣本反覆加權修正 93.3因素之權值決定 123.4解決游離票 163.5最大隸屬度判定之可靠度分析 183.6推論過程 21肆、實例探討 224.1樣本代表性檢定及樣本反覆加權修正 234.2問卷分析過程 27伍、結論 35參考文獻 38附錄 41 | zh_TW |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002001559 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 模糊統計 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 最大隸屬度 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 模糊權重 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Fuzzy statistics | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Maximum of membership | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Fuzzy weight | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 模糊統計分析在選情預測之應用 | zh_TW |
| dc.title (題名) | Analysis of Fuzzy Statistics in Application of Forcasting an Election Campaign | en_US |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en_US |
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