學術產出-學位論文
文章檢視/開啟
書目匯出
-
題名 模糊統計分析在選情預測之應用
Analysis of Fuzzy Statistics in Application of Forcasting an Election Campaign作者 吳珮菁
Wu, Pei-Ching貢獻者 鄭宇庭<br>吳柏林
吳珮菁
Wu, Pei-Ching關鍵詞 模糊統計
最大隸屬度
模糊權重
Fuzzy statistics
Maximum of membership
Fuzzy weight日期 1998 上傳時間 21-四月-2016 09:54:59 (UTC+8) 摘要 近年來，民意調查有廣泛使用在預測競選期間選情動向的趨勢，試將問卷設計為探討選民們投票理念與投票行為意圖，以預測選民投票意向。但現實社會裡，並不能以二元邏輯的觀念來劃分人類的思想理念與行為意圖，因為人類的思維、決策、行為中都包含模糊不確定性與非定量化的特質，即集合中元素的隸屬度假若是模糊不確定的，非完全屬於此集合又非完全不屬於此集合，則二元邏輯觀念可能無法詳盡地探訴事件本身所具代表的真相，將會扭曲它背後隱藏的因素意義，故欲應用多元邏輯更精確地描述人類不確定性的模糊特質。
Public opinion survey has played an important role and has been utilized in forcasting an election campaign. Trying to get an unbiased and reliable forcast that best explain voters behavior, researchers have put a tremendous effort in designing the survey questions trying to capture the true essence of voters intention and action. In this paper, we apply logic of fuzzy theory to extract the voters inclination to vote for any candidate in the event of uncertainty surrounding the voters that may affect his or her voting decision.參考文獻 吳柏林、楊文山 (1995) 模糊統計在社會調查分析的應用。社會科學計量方法發展與應用學術研討會。台北：中央研究院人文社會科學研究院。吳柏林 (1996) 社會科學研究中模擬邏輯與模糊統計分析。國立政治大學研 究通訊第七期。頁17-38。洪永泰 (1996) 戶中抽樣之研究。台北：時英出版社。胡佛、陳德禹、朱雲漢等 (1993) 選民的投票行為民國七十八年增額立法委員選舉的分析。台北：國暉文物社。梁世武 (1996) 民意調查一九九六年總統選舉預測。台北：華泰書局。梁世武、吳統雄、石崇賢等 (1995) 選舉預測：1994年台北市長選舉之研究。民意研究季刊，第192期，頁：12-49。陳義彥 (1982) 台北市選民投票行為之研究。台北：六國出版社。謝復生等 (1995) 台北市長選舉預測模型之研究。行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計劃成果報告。Dong Hoon Lee , Daihee Park (1997) An Efficient Algorithm For Fuzzy Weighted Average. Fuzzy Sets And Systems, 87, p39–45.Dong W. M. & Wong F. S (1987) Fuzzy weighted averages and implementation of the extension principle . Fuzzy sets and systems, 21, p183–119.George J. Klir, Bo Yuan (1995) Fuzzy Sets And Fuzzy Logic Theory and Applications. Englewood Cliffs, N. J. : Prentice Hall PTR.Hung T. Nguyen (1997) Fuzzy sets and probability. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 90, p129-132.Ion Iancu (1997) Reasoning system with fuzzy uncertainty. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 9, p251–59.Jaime Gil Aluja (1996) Towards a new paradigm of investment selection in uncertainty . Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 84, p187–197.Jean Dickinson Gibbons, Subhabrata Chakraborti (1992) Nonparametric Statistical Inference.New York: M. Dekker.Kyung Sam Park, Soung Hie Kim (1996) A note on the fuzzy weighted additive rule. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 77, p315–320.Louis & Richard A. Parker (1997) Designing And Conducting Survey Research-A Comprehensive Guide. Sanfranciso: Jossey–Bass.Milan Mares (1994) Computation over Fuzzy Quantities. Boca Raton, Fla: CRC.Ronald R. Yager (1996) Constrained OWA aggregation.Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 81, p89-101.Ronald Czaja & Johnny Blair (1996) Designing Surveys-A Guide To Decisions And Procedures. Thousand Oaks, Calif. : Pine Forge.Scheaffer, Mendenhall & Ott (1996) Elementary Survey Sampling. Belmont, Calif. : Duxbury.Swapan Raha, Kumar S. Ray (1997) Reasoning with vague default. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 91, p327–338 .Turner C. & Martin E. (1984) Surveying subjective phenomena, Vol 1. New York：Ressell Sage Fundation.T.J. Liou & M.J.J Wang (1992) Fuzzy Weighted Average: An Improved Algorithm. Fuzzy Sets And Systems, 87, p307–315.Tzung–Pei Hong & Chai–Ying Lee (1996) Induction of fuzzy rules and membership functions from training examples . Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 84, p33–47.Ulrich Hohle & Erich Peter Klement (1995) Non-Classical Logics And Their Applications To Fuzzy Subsets: A Handbook Of The Mathemetical Foundations Of Fuzzy Set Theory. Boston: Kluwr Academic.Wayne W. Daniel (1990) Applied Nonparametric Statistics. Boston: PWS–KENT.Yeung D.S., Tsang E.C.C. (1997) Weighted fuzzy production rules, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 88, p299–313. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
統計學系
86354019資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002001559 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 鄭宇庭<br>吳柏林 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) 吳珮菁 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (作者) Wu, Pei-Ching en_US dc.creator (作者) 吳珮菁 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Wu, Pei-Ching en_US dc.date (日期) 1998 en_US dc.date.accessioned 21-四月-2016 09:54:59 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 21-四月-2016 09:54:59 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 21-四月-2016 09:54:59 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (其他 識別碼) B2002001559 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/85888 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 統計學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 86354019 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 近年來，民意調查有廣泛使用在預測競選期間選情動向的趨勢，試將問卷設計為探討選民們投票理念與投票行為意圖，以預測選民投票意向。但現實社會裡，並不能以二元邏輯的觀念來劃分人類的思想理念與行為意圖，因為人類的思維、決策、行為中都包含模糊不確定性與非定量化的特質，即集合中元素的隸屬度假若是模糊不確定的，非完全屬於此集合又非完全不屬於此集合，則二元邏輯觀念可能無法詳盡地探訴事件本身所具代表的真相，將會扭曲它背後隱藏的因素意義，故欲應用多元邏輯更精確地描述人類不確定性的模糊特質。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Public opinion survey has played an important role and has been utilized in forcasting an election campaign. Trying to get an unbiased and reliable forcast that best explain voters behavior, researchers have put a tremendous effort in designing the survey questions trying to capture the true essence of voters intention and action. In this paper, we apply logic of fuzzy theory to extract the voters inclination to vote for any candidate in the event of uncertainty surrounding the voters that may affect his or her voting decision. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 壹、前言 1貳、模糊統計 32.1模糊邏輯 32.2模糊集合 42.3模糊權重 6參、選情預測與模糊統計分析 73.1問卷設計與統計分析方式 73.2樣本代表性檢定及樣本反覆加權修正 93.3因素之權值決定 123.4解決游離票 163.5最大隸屬度判定之可靠度分析 183.6推論過程 21肆、實例探討 224.1樣本代表性檢定及樣本反覆加權修正 234.2問卷分析過程 27伍、結論 35參考文獻 38附錄 41 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002001559 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 模糊統計 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 最大隸屬度 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 模糊權重 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fuzzy statistics en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Maximum of membership en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fuzzy weight en_US dc.title (題名) 模糊統計分析在選情預測之應用 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Analysis of Fuzzy Statistics in Application of Forcasting an Election Campaign en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳柏林、楊文山 (1995) 模糊統計在社會調查分析的應用。社會科學計量方法發展與應用學術研討會。台北：中央研究院人文社會科學研究院。吳柏林 (1996) 社會科學研究中模擬邏輯與模糊統計分析。國立政治大學研 究通訊第七期。頁17-38。洪永泰 (1996) 戶中抽樣之研究。台北：時英出版社。胡佛、陳德禹、朱雲漢等 (1993) 選民的投票行為民國七十八年增額立法委員選舉的分析。台北：國暉文物社。梁世武 (1996) 民意調查一九九六年總統選舉預測。台北：華泰書局。梁世武、吳統雄、石崇賢等 (1995) 選舉預測：1994年台北市長選舉之研究。民意研究季刊，第192期，頁：12-49。陳義彥 (1982) 台北市選民投票行為之研究。台北：六國出版社。謝復生等 (1995) 台北市長選舉預測模型之研究。行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計劃成果報告。Dong Hoon Lee , Daihee Park (1997) An Efficient Algorithm For Fuzzy Weighted Average. Fuzzy Sets And Systems, 87, p39–45.Dong W. M. & Wong F. S (1987) Fuzzy weighted averages and implementation of the extension principle . Fuzzy sets and systems, 21, p183–119.George J. Klir, Bo Yuan (1995) Fuzzy Sets And Fuzzy Logic Theory and Applications. Englewood Cliffs, N. J. : Prentice Hall PTR.Hung T. Nguyen (1997) Fuzzy sets and probability. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 90, p129-132.Ion Iancu (1997) Reasoning system with fuzzy uncertainty. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 9, p251–59.Jaime Gil Aluja (1996) Towards a new paradigm of investment selection in uncertainty . Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 84, p187–197.Jean Dickinson Gibbons, Subhabrata Chakraborti (1992) Nonparametric Statistical Inference.New York: M. Dekker.Kyung Sam Park, Soung Hie Kim (1996) A note on the fuzzy weighted additive rule. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 77, p315–320.Louis & Richard A. Parker (1997) Designing And Conducting Survey Research-A Comprehensive Guide. Sanfranciso: Jossey–Bass.Milan Mares (1994) Computation over Fuzzy Quantities. Boca Raton, Fla: CRC.Ronald R. Yager (1996) Constrained OWA aggregation.Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 81, p89-101.Ronald Czaja & Johnny Blair (1996) Designing Surveys-A Guide To Decisions And Procedures. Thousand Oaks, Calif. : Pine Forge.Scheaffer, Mendenhall & Ott (1996) Elementary Survey Sampling. Belmont, Calif. : Duxbury.Swapan Raha, Kumar S. Ray (1997) Reasoning with vague default. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 91, p327–338 .Turner C. & Martin E. (1984) Surveying subjective phenomena, Vol 1. New York：Ressell Sage Fundation.T.J. Liou & M.J.J Wang (1992) Fuzzy Weighted Average: An Improved Algorithm. Fuzzy Sets And Systems, 87, p307–315.Tzung–Pei Hong & Chai–Ying Lee (1996) Induction of fuzzy rules and membership functions from training examples . Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 84, p33–47.Ulrich Hohle & Erich Peter Klement (1995) Non-Classical Logics And Their Applications To Fuzzy Subsets: A Handbook Of The Mathemetical Foundations Of Fuzzy Set Theory. Boston: Kluwr Academic.Wayne W. Daniel (1990) Applied Nonparametric Statistics. Boston: PWS–KENT.Yeung D.S., Tsang E.C.C. (1997) Weighted fuzzy production rules, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 88, p299–313. zh_TW
