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題名 股價評估模式的選擇--以台灣科技公司台達電為例
A case study of how to choose the fittest model to value a company--Delta electronic company
作者 胡華盛
Hu, John
貢獻者 周行一
Chow, Edward H.
胡華盛
Hu, John
關鍵詞 評價
資產訂價
本益比
競爭優勢期間
自由現金流量
附加經濟價值模型
相對價值模型
台達電
valuation
CAPM
relative pricing
competitive advantage period
pe
economic value added
free cashflow
pb
日期 1998
上傳時間 22-Apr-2016 10:20:21 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究從了解台達電公司的背景，整體環境，產品的前景與市場獲利，公司結構和近來動向，技術合作生產方面，重要轉投資活動，達電與上下游廠商之間的關係和在產業中的優劣勢分析出發，對公司的背景有了透澈的了解後，開始以既有的財務報表 (民國76~87年) 為基礎對達電預估民國88~92年的財務報表，並且以學術的評估公司價值理論套用進來，如資產評價模型 (CAPM)，競爭優勢期間 (Competitive advantage period)，股利折現模型 (Gordon model)，附加經濟價值模型 (EVA)，修正附加經濟價值模型 (REVA)，自由現金流量法 (Free cash flow)，指標盈餘法 (indexed earnings)，本益比 (P/E)、市價淨值比 (P/B) 和市價銷售比法 (P/S) 等，以了解這些模型對達電的適用性，並對上述的模型提出其是否適用的原因，作為日後評價類似台灣科技產業的參考。
There are many valuation models, such as CAPM, competitive advantage period model, Gordon dividend discount model, economic value added model, revised economic value added model, free cash flow model, and relative pricing models such as P/E, P/B and P/S, etc… But what is the fittest model for the high-tech stocks in Taiwan? In my thesis I picked Delta electronic company for my case study because it is one of the fastest growing corporations that is representative of the industry on this island. I started with understanding the fundamentals, strategy, strength, weakness, opportunity and the threat of Delta by analyzing its industry, structure, products and its affiliates domestically and abroad. On the basis of the existing financial statements of the past 12 years (1987~1998), I built the next 5-year ones (1999~2003). Then I applied the valuation models to find out the intrinsic value of Delta based on the information from my analysis, magazines, the internet, the library and other resources.
參考文獻 國內文獻部份：
     1. 陳奉珊，企業評估模型有效性之實證研究，國立政治大學財務管理研究所出版之碩士論文，民國87年
     2. 張賢智，自由現金流量假說─以台灣上市公司為例，國立東華大學國際經濟研究所出版之碩士論文，民國87年
     3. 陳志瑋，台灣上市公司自由現金流量代理問題探討，國立中央大學財務管理研究所出版之碩士論文，民國86年
     國外文獻部份：
      1. Bacidore, J. M. , J. A. Boquist, T. T. Milbourn, and A. V. Thakor, The Search for the Best Financial Performance Measure, Financial Analysts Journal, May/June, 1997, 11-64
      2. Barnes, P. F. , A real-world focus in calculating terminal values, Merger & Acquisitions, July/August 1996, 24-26
      3. Benning, S. , Financial modeling, 1997, 18-27
      4. Brealey, R. A, S. C. Myers, Principles of corporate finance, 5, 1996, 70-72
      5. Chan, S. H. , J. D. Martin and J. W. Kensinger, Corporate research and development expenditures and share value, Journal of financial economics, 1990, 26, 255-276
      6. Copeland, T. , T. Koller, and J. Murrin, Valuation:Measuring and Managing the value of Companies, 1994, 109-129
      7. Dillon, R. D. and J. E. Owers, EVA as a financial metric:attributes, utilization, and relationship to NPV, Financial practice and education, spring/summer, 1997, 32-40
      8. Damodaran, A. , Investment Valuation, Tools and techniques for determining the value of any asset 1996, 98-118, 291-297, 318-324, 338-345
      9. Fairfield, P. M. , P/E, P/B and the present value of future dividends, Financial analysts Journal, July/August, 1994, 23-31
     10.Ferguson, R. , D. Leistikow, Search for the best financial performance measure：basics are better. Financial Analysts Journal. Jan/Feb, 1997, 81-85
     11.French, D, W. C. Subramaniam, and T. Trapani, The market valuation of earnings and real growth, The Journal of Investing, spring 1998, 54-60
     12.Kramer, J. and Pushner G. , An Empirical Analysis of Economic Value Added as a Proxy for Market Value Added, Financial Practice and Education, Spring/Summer, 1997, 41-49
     13.Mauboussin, M. , P. Johnson, Competitive Advantage period：The Neglected Value Driver, Financial Management, 26, summer 1997, 67-74
     14.Miller, M. H. , F. Modigliani, Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares, The Journal of Business, Oct, 1961, 1004, 411-433
     15.Morris, G. D. A simple valuation model and growth expectations, Association for Investment Management and Research May/June 1998, 50-57
     16.Narayanan, R. , Essays on insider trading and its regulation and the agency costs of free cash flow，Thesis (Ph. D. )--New York University, 1993
     17.O`Byrne, S. F. , EVA and shareholder return, Financial practice and Education, spring/summer，1997, 50-54
     18.Ohlson, J. A. , A synthesis of security valuation theory and the role of dividends, cash flows, and earnings
     19.Szewczyk, S. H. , G. P. Tsetsekos, and Z. Zantout, The valuation of Corporate R&D expenditures:evidence from investment opportunities and free cash flow, Financial management, 25, 1, spring 1996, 105-110
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
金融研究所
g86352001
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002001424
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 周行一zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chow, Edward H.en_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 胡華盛zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hu, Johnen_US
dc.creator (作者) 胡華盛zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Hu, Johnen_US
dc.date (日期) 1998en_US
dc.date.accessioned 22-Apr-2016 10:20:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 22-Apr-2016 10:20:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 22-Apr-2016 10:20:21 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002001424en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/85936-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 金融研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) g86352001zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究從了解台達電公司的背景，整體環境，產品的前景與市場獲利，公司結構和近來動向，技術合作生產方面，重要轉投資活動，達電與上下游廠商之間的關係和在產業中的優劣勢分析出發，對公司的背景有了透澈的了解後，開始以既有的財務報表 (民國76~87年) 為基礎對達電預估民國88~92年的財務報表，並且以學術的評估公司價值理論套用進來，如資產評價模型 (CAPM)，競爭優勢期間 (Competitive advantage period)，股利折現模型 (Gordon model)，附加經濟價值模型 (EVA)，修正附加經濟價值模型 (REVA)，自由現金流量法 (Free cash flow)，指標盈餘法 (indexed earnings)，本益比 (P/E)、市價淨值比 (P/B) 和市價銷售比法 (P/S) 等，以了解這些模型對達電的適用性，並對上述的模型提出其是否適用的原因，作為日後評價類似台灣科技產業的參考。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) There are many valuation models, such as CAPM, competitive advantage period model, Gordon dividend discount model, economic value added model, revised economic value added model, free cash flow model, and relative pricing models such as P/E, P/B and P/S, etc… But what is the fittest model for the high-tech stocks in Taiwan? In my thesis I picked Delta electronic company for my case study because it is one of the fastest growing corporations that is representative of the industry on this island. I started with understanding the fundamentals, strategy, strength, weakness, opportunity and the threat of Delta by analyzing its industry, structure, products and its affiliates domestically and abroad. On the basis of the existing financial statements of the past 12 years (1987~1998), I built the next 5-year ones (1999~2003). Then I applied the valuation models to find out the intrinsic value of Delta based on the information from my analysis, magazines, the internet, the library and other resources.en_US
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002001424en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 評價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資產訂價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 本益比zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 競爭優勢期間zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自由現金流量zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 附加經濟價值模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 相對價值模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 台達電zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) valuationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CAPMen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) relative pricingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) competitive advantage perioden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) peen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) economic value addeden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) free cashflowen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) pben_US
dc.title (題名) 股價評估模式的選擇--以台灣科技公司台達電為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) A case study of how to choose the fittest model to value a company--Delta electronic companyen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 國內文獻部份：
     1. 陳奉珊，企業評估模型有效性之實證研究，國立政治大學財務管理研究所出版之碩士論文，民國87年
     2. 張賢智，自由現金流量假說─以台灣上市公司為例，國立東華大學國際經濟研究所出版之碩士論文，民國87年
     3. 陳志瑋，台灣上市公司自由現金流量代理問題探討，國立中央大學財務管理研究所出版之碩士論文，民國86年
     國外文獻部份：
      1. Bacidore, J. M. , J. A. Boquist, T. T. Milbourn, and A. V. Thakor, The Search for the Best Financial Performance Measure, Financial Analysts Journal, May/June, 1997, 11-64
      2. Barnes, P. F. , A real-world focus in calculating terminal values, Merger & Acquisitions, July/August 1996, 24-26
      3. Benning, S. , Financial modeling, 1997, 18-27
      4. Brealey, R. A, S. C. Myers, Principles of corporate finance, 5, 1996, 70-72
      5. Chan, S. H. , J. D. Martin and J. W. Kensinger, Corporate research and development expenditures and share value, Journal of financial economics, 1990, 26, 255-276
      6. Copeland, T. , T. Koller, and J. Murrin, Valuation:Measuring and Managing the value of Companies, 1994, 109-129
      7. Dillon, R. D. and J. E. Owers, EVA as a financial metric:attributes, utilization, and relationship to NPV, Financial practice and education, spring/summer, 1997, 32-40
      8. Damodaran, A. , Investment Valuation, Tools and techniques for determining the value of any asset 1996, 98-118, 291-297, 318-324, 338-345
      9. Fairfield, P. M. , P/E, P/B and the present value of future dividends, Financial analysts Journal, July/August, 1994, 23-31
     10.Ferguson, R. , D. Leistikow, Search for the best financial performance measure：basics are better. Financial Analysts Journal. Jan/Feb, 1997, 81-85
     11.French, D, W. C. Subramaniam, and T. Trapani, The market valuation of earnings and real growth, The Journal of Investing, spring 1998, 54-60
     12.Kramer, J. and Pushner G. , An Empirical Analysis of Economic Value Added as a Proxy for Market Value Added, Financial Practice and Education, Spring/Summer, 1997, 41-49
     13.Mauboussin, M. , P. Johnson, Competitive Advantage period：The Neglected Value Driver, Financial Management, 26, summer 1997, 67-74
     14.Miller, M. H. , F. Modigliani, Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares, The Journal of Business, Oct, 1961, 1004, 411-433
     15.Morris, G. D. A simple valuation model and growth expectations, Association for Investment Management and Research May/June 1998, 50-57
     16.Narayanan, R. , Essays on insider trading and its regulation and the agency costs of free cash flow，Thesis (Ph. D. )--New York University, 1993
     17.O`Byrne, S. F. , EVA and shareholder return, Financial practice and Education, spring/summer，1997, 50-54
     18.Ohlson, J. A. , A synthesis of security valuation theory and the role of dividends, cash flows, and earnings
     19.Szewczyk, S. H. , G. P. Tsetsekos, and Z. Zantout, The valuation of Corporate R&D expenditures:evidence from investment opportunities and free cash flow, Financial management, 25, 1, spring 1996, 105-110		zh_TW