1. NCCU Academic Hub
  2. Publications
  3. College of Commerce
  4. Theses
  5. Item

Publications-Theses

Article View/Open

Publication Export

Google ScholarTM

NCCU Library

Citation Infomation

Related Publications in TAIR

題名 管理當局自願性財務預測準確度及資訊內涵之研究
The Accuracy and Information Content of Voluntary Forecast Disclosure
作者 宋義德
Soon, Yi-Dath
貢獻者 鄭丁旺
宋義德
Soon, Yi-Dath
關鍵詞 財務預測
自願性
準確度
資訊內涵
媒體披露
日期 1996
上傳時間 28-Apr-2016 14:47:36 (UTC+8)
摘要 本論文的目的，在探討管理當局自願性公布財務預測及修正其資訊的有用性，或資訊內涵。所謂管理當局自願性揭露，意指其在大眾媒體上自願性地披露年度盈餘預測之謂。管理當局是財務資訊的主要生產者，其所生產之預測資訊具內部資訊優越性，是以投資人會以為這項資訊，對公司年度實際盈餘的瞭解有極大助益。若盈餘是有用的資訊，研究其預測資訊的準確度（是否具優越性）與資訊的有用性，將有助於公司管理當局在公告預測時的動機與市場如何使用盈餘預測資訊來進行投資決策，以及公司管理當局是否會利用這項資訊，進行股價操縱的行為。據此，本研究主要探討自願性財務預測相對於其實際盈餘的準 確度或修正幅度與方向，俾據以為檢查自願性預測與股價的關係。由於自願性預測均公布在媒體上，故本研究亦探討自願性揭露在專業性與非專業性媒體所代表之準確度與股價反應，俾瞭解媒體在自願性揭露中所扮演的角色。研究期間是以民國八十年度至八十三年度的資料作為分析的對象。結果顯示，自願性管理當局的揭露具資訊內涵，且專業性媒體上所披露者較非專業性媒體有用性為高。
參考文獻 一、中文部分
林鎮邦，台灣地區股票上市公司公布之財務報表所含情報量之研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國六十八年六月。
余尚武，台灣證券市場股票上市公司盈餘宣告所合資訊內容之研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十五年六月。
曾詳琳，季盈餘公告對股票成交量影響之研究，成功大學工業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年六月。
吳安妮博士，經理人員自願揭露盈餘預測資訊給外界之決定因素實證研究，國立政治大學會計評論，民國八十年二月第25期，1-24頁。
陳志愷，盈餘反應係數探索性之研究一台灣股票市場之實證分析，政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國八十二年六月。
吳麗紅，年度盈餘資訊效率性之探討，政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國八十二年六月。

二、英文部分
Abarbanell, J. S. 1991. Do analysts` earnings forecasts
incorporate information in prior stock price change. Journal Of Accounting and Economics(June):147-165.
Baginski, S. P. and J. M. Hassell. 1990. The market interpretation of management earnings forecasts as a predictor of subsequent financial analyst forecast revision. The Accounting Review (January):175-190.
Ball, R. and P. Brown. 1968. An empirical evaulation of
accounting income numbers. Journal of Accounting Research
(Autumn): 159-178.
Bamber, L. S. 1986. The information content of annual earnings releases: a trading volume approach. Journal of Accounting Research (Spring):40-56.
Beaver, W. H. 1968. The information content of annunal
eanlings announcements. Journal of Accounting Research
(Supplement):67 -92.
Collins, D. W.,S. P. Kothari and J. D. Rayburn. 1987. Finn
size and the information content of prices with respect to
eanungs. Journal Of Accounting and Economics(July): 11-
138.
Fama, E. F. 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of
Theory and Empirical Work", Journal of Finance, Vo1.25:383-
417.
Foster, G. 1973. "Stock Market Reaction to Estimates of
Earnings per share by Company Officials.", Journal of
Accounting Research (Spring), pp.25-37.
Grossman, S. 1981. "An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectation under Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, (October) .
Grossman, S., and J, Stiglitz. 1976. "Information and
Competitive Price System," American Economic Review,
(May) .
Grossman, S., and 1. Stiglitz. 1980. "On the Impossibility
Efficient Markets", American Economic Review, Vo1.70:393-
408.
Han,J.C.Y. 1993 . Managers "Reputation, analysts"forcast
performance and il1vestors"expectation adjustments. Working
paper, state university of New York.
Han J.C.Y. and J.J. Wild. 1991. Stock price behavior
ssociated with managers` earnings and revenue forecasts.
Journal Of Accounting Rrsearch 29: 79-95.
Hassell,J. M. and R.H. Jennings and D.J. Lasser, 1988.
Management earnings forecasts :their usefulness as a source of fum-specific information to security analysts. The Journal Of Financial Research(Winter):303-319.
Jaggi,Bikki. 1978. "A Note on Information Content Of
Corporate AnW1alEamings Forecasts." The Accounting Review.
Vo1.53,N0.4,pp.961-969.
Hellwing, Martin F. 1982. " Rational Expectations Equilibriwn with Conditioning on Past Prices: A Mean-Variance Example", Journal of Economic Theory, Vo1.26:279-312.
Lev, B.. 1989. On the usefulness and earnings research: Lessons and directions from two decades of empirical research. Journal of Accounting Research 27: 153-202.
Lys,T., and S. Solm. 1990. The association between revisions
-of analysts`earnings forecasts and security price changes.
Journal Of Accounting and Economics. (December) :341-363.
Nichols, Donald R., Jeffrey J. Tasy and Paula D. Larkin. 1979.
"Investor Trading Responses To Differing Characteristics Of
Voluntarily Disclosed Eanlings Forecasts." The Accounting
Review. Vo1.5, No, 2, PP. 376-382.
Patell, J. M. 1976. "Coporate Forecasts of Earnings Per Share and Stock price Behavior: Empirical Tests." Journal of
Accounting Research(autumn ):246-276.
Stephen H. Penman. 1980. "An Empirical Investigation of the
Voluntary Disclosure of Corporate EaIl1ings Forecasts",
Journal of Accounting Research (Spring ), pp.132-160.
Strong, N. 1992. "Modelling Abnormal Returns: An Review
Article". Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, (June) ,
pp.533-553.
Waymire,G. 1984. Additional Evidence on the information
content of management earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research(Autumn):703-718.
Waymire ,G. 1985. Earnings volatility and voluntary Managemen Forecast Disclosure. Journal of Accounting Research (Spring):268-295.
Williams, P. A., 1993. The effect of "prior forecast
usefulness" on financial analyst forecast revisions following an earnings forecast by management. First(l994) International Conference on Contemporary Accounting Issues.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
83353015
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002002844
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 鄭丁旺zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 宋義德zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Soon, Yi-Dathen_US
dc.creator (作者) 宋義德zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Soon, Yi-Dathen_US
dc.date (日期) 1996en_US
dc.date.accessioned 28-Apr-2016 14:47:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 28-Apr-2016 14:47:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 28-Apr-2016 14:47:36 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002002844en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/87516-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 83353015zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本論文的目的，在探討管理當局自願性公布財務預測及修正其資訊的有用性，或資訊內涵。所謂管理當局自願性揭露，意指其在大眾媒體上自願性地披露年度盈餘預測之謂。管理當局是財務資訊的主要生產者，其所生產之預測資訊具內部資訊優越性，是以投資人會以為這項資訊，對公司年度實際盈餘的瞭解有極大助益。若盈餘是有用的資訊，研究其預測資訊的準確度（是否具優越性）與資訊的有用性，將有助於公司管理當局在公告預測時的動機與市場如何使用盈餘預測資訊來進行投資決策，以及公司管理當局是否會利用這項資訊，進行股價操縱的行為。據此，本研究主要探討自願性財務預測相對於其實際盈餘的準 確度或修正幅度與方向，俾據以為檢查自願性預測與股價的關係。由於自願性預測均公布在媒體上，故本研究亦探討自願性揭露在專業性與非專業性媒體所代表之準確度與股價反應，俾瞭解媒體在自願性揭露中所扮演的角色。研究期間是以民國八十年度至八十三年度的資料作為分析的對象。結果顯示，自願性管理當局的揭露具資訊內涵，且專業性媒體上所披露者較非專業性媒體有用性為高。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章緒論..........1
第一節研究動機..........1
第二節研究目的..........2
第三節研究流程..........2
第四節論文架構..........4
第二章文獻探討..........5
第一節資訊與股價關係之理論基礎..........6
第二節盈餘(預測)與股價關係之相關研究..........10
第三節文獻總結..........28
第三章研究方法..........29
第一節觀念性架構..........29
第二節研究設計..........30
第三節研究假說..........30
第四節變數之定義與衡量..........31
第五節樣本選取及處理..........35
第六節研究期間與資料收集..........36
第七節統計檢定方法..........37
第八節預期結果..........40
第四章實證結果及分析..........41
第五章研究結論、限制與建議..........75
第一節研究結論..........75
第二節研究限制..........76
第三節研究建議..........77
參考文獻..........78		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002002844en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 財務預測zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自願性zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 準確度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資訊內涵zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 媒體披露zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 管理當局自願性財務預測準確度及資訊內涵之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Accuracy and Information Content of Voluntary Forecast Disclosureen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分
林鎮邦，台灣地區股票上市公司公布之財務報表所含情報量之研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國六十八年六月。
余尚武，台灣證券市場股票上市公司盈餘宣告所合資訊內容之研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十五年六月。
曾詳琳，季盈餘公告對股票成交量影響之研究，成功大學工業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年六月。
吳安妮博士，經理人員自願揭露盈餘預測資訊給外界之決定因素實證研究，國立政治大學會計評論，民國八十年二月第25期，1-24頁。
陳志愷，盈餘反應係數探索性之研究一台灣股票市場之實證分析，政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國八十二年六月。
吳麗紅，年度盈餘資訊效率性之探討，政治大學會計研究所碩士論文，民國八十二年六月。

二、英文部分
Abarbanell, J. S. 1991. Do analysts` earnings forecasts
incorporate information in prior stock price change. Journal Of Accounting and Economics(June):147-165.
Baginski, S. P. and J. M. Hassell. 1990. The market interpretation of management earnings forecasts as a predictor of subsequent financial analyst forecast revision. The Accounting Review (January):175-190.
Ball, R. and P. Brown. 1968. An empirical evaulation of
accounting income numbers. Journal of Accounting Research
(Autumn): 159-178.
Bamber, L. S. 1986. The information content of annual earnings releases: a trading volume approach. Journal of Accounting Research (Spring):40-56.
Beaver, W. H. 1968. The information content of annunal
eanlings announcements. Journal of Accounting Research
(Supplement):67 -92.
Collins, D. W.,S. P. Kothari and J. D. Rayburn. 1987. Finn
size and the information content of prices with respect to
eanungs. Journal Of Accounting and Economics(July): 11-
138.
Fama, E. F. 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of
Theory and Empirical Work", Journal of Finance, Vo1.25:383-
417.
Foster, G. 1973. "Stock Market Reaction to Estimates of
Earnings per share by Company Officials.", Journal of
Accounting Research (Spring), pp.25-37.
Grossman, S. 1981. "An Introduction to the Theory of Rational Expectation under Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, (October) .
Grossman, S., and J, Stiglitz. 1976. "Information and
Competitive Price System," American Economic Review,
(May) .
Grossman, S., and 1. Stiglitz. 1980. "On the Impossibility
Efficient Markets", American Economic Review, Vo1.70:393-
408.
Han,J.C.Y. 1993 . Managers "Reputation, analysts"forcast
performance and il1vestors"expectation adjustments. Working
paper, state university of New York.
Han J.C.Y. and J.J. Wild. 1991. Stock price behavior
ssociated with managers` earnings and revenue forecasts.
Journal Of Accounting Rrsearch 29: 79-95.
Hassell,J. M. and R.H. Jennings and D.J. Lasser, 1988.
Management earnings forecasts :their usefulness as a source of fum-specific information to security analysts. The Journal Of Financial Research(Winter):303-319.
Jaggi,Bikki. 1978. "A Note on Information Content Of
Corporate AnW1alEamings Forecasts." The Accounting Review.
Vo1.53,N0.4,pp.961-969.
Hellwing, Martin F. 1982. " Rational Expectations Equilibriwn with Conditioning on Past Prices: A Mean-Variance Example", Journal of Economic Theory, Vo1.26:279-312.
Lev, B.. 1989. On the usefulness and earnings research: Lessons and directions from two decades of empirical research. Journal of Accounting Research 27: 153-202.
Lys,T., and S. Solm. 1990. The association between revisions
-of analysts`earnings forecasts and security price changes.
Journal Of Accounting and Economics. (December) :341-363.
Nichols, Donald R., Jeffrey J. Tasy and Paula D. Larkin. 1979.
"Investor Trading Responses To Differing Characteristics Of
Voluntarily Disclosed Eanlings Forecasts." The Accounting
Review. Vo1.5, No, 2, PP. 376-382.
Patell, J. M. 1976. "Coporate Forecasts of Earnings Per Share and Stock price Behavior: Empirical Tests." Journal of
Accounting Research(autumn ):246-276.
Stephen H. Penman. 1980. "An Empirical Investigation of the
Voluntary Disclosure of Corporate EaIl1ings Forecasts",
Journal of Accounting Research (Spring ), pp.132-160.
Strong, N. 1992. "Modelling Abnormal Returns: An Review
Article". Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, (June) ,
pp.533-553.
Waymire,G. 1984. Additional Evidence on the information
content of management earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research(Autumn):703-718.
Waymire ,G. 1985. Earnings volatility and voluntary Managemen Forecast Disclosure. Journal of Accounting Research (Spring):268-295.
Williams, P. A., 1993. The effect of "prior forecast
usefulness" on financial analyst forecast revisions following an earnings forecast by management. First(l994) International Conference on Contemporary Accounting Issues.		zh_TW