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題名 我國上市公司財務預警制度之研究
作者 儲蕙文
貢獻者 陳錦烽
Chen, Jing-Feng
儲蕙文
關鍵詞 預警制度
上市公司
日期 1995
上傳時間 29-Apr-2016 09:16:50 (UTC+8)
摘要 在過去眾多破產預測研究中，多半致力於找尋將企業劃分為破產及非破產兩大類之分界點，鮮有將破產過程作階段式劃分之研究。而企業破產或財務重整皆意味著社會資源之誤置，其影響層面與企業的規模大小成正比，尤以公開發行股票之公司為甚。因此，本文以上市公司為研究母體，試圖發展描述企業破產過程之模型。
Most of researches about bankruptcy prediction seek for the cut-off point to classify the corporations into two groups: bankruptcy or nonbankruptcy; only few consider that bankruptcy is a gradual process and build a model to describe it. On the other hand, bankruptcy or financial restructure means the misuse of social resources. The impact of this misuse depends on the scale of the corporation The larger the corporation scale is, the greater the impact is, especially those corporations whose stocks traded publicly. This study intends to build a multiple-stage model to desribe the bankruptcy process of those corporations.
參考文獻 一、中文書籍及期刊
1.王光華，財務報表資料預知企業財務困難能力之探討，會計師會訊民國八十一年十、十一月。
2. 公司預警蓄勢待發━政府借重會計師發揮整頓企業功能，民國七十七年十一月，第3期會計師月刊。
3. 台灣景氣指標，第二十卷十九期，行政院經濟建設委員會經濟研究處。
4. 洪惠玲，營業現金流量對企業失敗預測能力之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十年六月。
5. 洪榮華，不景氣時期我國經營不良上市公司財務比率之探討，國立中山大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十三年，六月。
6 陳明賢，財務危機預測之計量分析研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十五年六月。
7. 張德偉，探索企業失敗的先兆，國立中興大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，國七十五年六月民。
8. 陳肇榮，運用財務比率預測企業財務危機之實証研究，國立政治大學企業管理研究所末出版博士論文，民國七十二年六月。
9. 陳蘊如，財務危機預警制度之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十年六月。
10. 葉金成，我國股票上市優良與否不優良企業財務特性之研究，國立政治大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國六十七年六月。
11. 彭昭英，SAS與統計分析，第三版，格致圖書有限公司，民國七十九年。
12. 楊巨昌，財務危機公司財務屬性探討及危機預測模式的建立，東海大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十五年六月。
13. 潘玉葉，台灣股票上市公司財務危機預警分析，淡江大學管理科學研究所博士論文，民國七十九年五月。
14. 劉建和，財務危機診斷的理論探討與實証研究，台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩上論文，民國八一年七月。
15. 談上市公司預警制度，會計研究月刊第58 期，民國七十九年六月。
16. 賴世權，企業正常或具失敗危機之關鍵性財務指標比較分析研究，國立中興大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年元月。

二、英文書籍及期刊
1.A1tman, Edward I, " Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy," The Journal of Finance (September 1968 ) ,pp.589-609.
2 _______ , "Capitalization of Lease and the Predictability of Financial Ratios : A Comment," Accounting Review(April 1976) ,pp.408-412.
3.Altman, Edward I, Robert G. Haldman and Paul Narayanan " Zata Analysis - A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporation ," Journal of banking and finance, (1977), pp.29-54.
4 Altman, Edward I., "Corporate Financial Distress: A Complete Guide to Predicting, Avoiding and Dealing with Bankruptcy," John Wiley & Sons, Inc.(1983)
5 ________ , "The Success Fail Prediction Model: An Internal Survey," Journal of Banking and Finance, (1984), pp.171-198.
6 ________ , " The Prediction of Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Garland Publishing, Inc.(1988)
7. ________ " Bankruptcy and Distress Restructure," N.Y.U. Salomon Center. (1993)
8.Baldwin, Jane and G. William Glezen," Bankruptcy Prediction Using Quarterly Financial Statement Data," Journal of Accounting ,Auditing & Finance, (1983), pp.269-285.
9.Bernstein, Leopold A. " Financial Statement Analysis: Theory, Application, and Interpretation," third Edition, Richard D. Irwin, Inc.,1983.
10.Beaver, William H., " Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure," Empirical Research In Accounting : Selected Study. Supplement to Journal 0 f Accounting Research
(1966), pp.71-111.
11.Blum, Marc, " Failing Company Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research ( Spring 1974 ) , pp.1-25.
12.Easterbrook, Frank H., " Is Corporate Bankruptcy Efficient? Journal of Financial Economics, (1990), pp.411-417 .
13.Eisenbeis, Robert A.," Pitfalls In the Application of Discriminant Analysis in Business, Finance, and Economics," The Journal of Finance, Vo1.32, (June 1977), pp.875-900.
14 Elam, R ick 11 The Effect of Lease Data on the Prediction Ability of Financial Ratios,1I The Accounting Review, (January 1975), pp.25-43.
15.Fitz, Patrick Paul J., " A Comparison of Success Industrial Enterprises with Those of Fail Firms," Certified Public Accountant, (October 1932), pp. 598 -605 .
16. Folke, Roy A., "Financial Ratios Become of Age," Journal of Accountancy, (September 1937), pp .209-210 .
17 .Gentry, J.A., Paul , Newbold, and David, T. Whitford," Classifying Bankrupt Firms with Fund Flow Components," Journal of Accounting Research (Spring), pp 146-160.
18 . _______ , " Prediction Bankruptcy : If Cash Flow` s not the Bottom Line, What Is ? " Financial Analysts Journal , (Sep/Oct 1985), pp.477-56.
19. Horriga, J. O., " A Short Story of Financial Ratios Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, (1968), pp.558-568.
20. Judge, George G. et. al. " Introduction to the Theory and Practices of Economics," John Wi1ey & Sons , Inc. (1982)
21. Keasey, K. And R. \\Vatson, " Non-Financial Symptoms and the Prediction of Small Company Failure: A Test of Argenti`s Hypotheses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, (Autumn 1987), pp.335-354.
22.Kelly, Dawn and Terry, 1. Amburgey, "Organization Inertia Momentum a Dynamic Model of Strategic Change," Academy of Management Journal, Vo1.34 (1991), pp.591-612.
23.Koh, Hian Chye, "The Sensitivity of Optimal Cut-Off Point to Misclassification Costs of Type T and Type TT Error in the
Concern Prediction Context, " Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, (January 1992), pp .18 7-197.
24. Laitine, E . K. " Financial Ratios and Different Failure Process," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, (September 1991), pp .649-673.
25.Lane, Sarah J. and Martha Schary, " Understanding the Business Failure Rate," Western Economic Association International. (1990)
26.Lau, Amy Ring Ling "A Five-State Financial Distress Prediction Model," Journal of Accounting Research, (Spring 1987): pp.127-138.
27.Lee, Mark I., 11 Z-Sore and Recent Events : Do They Shed Any Light? 11 Management Accounting, (January 1991), pp.44-48.
28. ________ , " Assessment of Performance Ranking as An Indicator of Future Survival," Management Accounting,(June 1991),
pp.44-49.
29. ________ , 11 Evaluating the Roberson Contribution to Bankruptcy Theory," Management Accounting, (January 1993), pp.59-61.
30 .Lev, Baruch, " Financial Failure and Informational Decomposition Measure", Expanding Perspectives in Contemporary Accounting, pp . 102-111.
31.Libby, Robert, 11 Accounting Ratios and the Prediction of Failure: Some Behavioral Evidence," Journal of Accounting Research, (spring 1975), pp.150-161.
32.Mearns, Albert, "A Test for Argeti`s Failure Model, "Management Accounting, (June 1991), pp.40-42.
33.Mensah, Yaw M., " An Examination of the Stationarity of Multivariate Bankruptcy Prediction Model: A Methodological Study," Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1983) : pp.380-395.
34.Merwin, Charles L., " Financial Small Corporations in Five Manufacturing Industries : 1926-1936, " National Bureau of Economic Research. (1942)
35.0hlson, James A., "Financial Ratios and the Probabilitic Prediction of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1980): pp.l09 -131.
36.Pinches, G.E., K.E. Mingo and J.E. Caruthers," The Stability of Financial Patterns in Industrial Organizations, " Journal of Finance", Vo1.28, (1973), pp.389-396.
37.Platt, Harlan & Marjorie, B. Platt, " Development of a Class of Stable Predictive Variables: the Case of Bankruptcy Prediction" Journal of Business Finance & Accounting (Spring 1990), pp.31-51.
38. ________ , "A Note on the Use of Industry-Relative Ratios in Bankruptcy Prediction, " Journal of Banking and Finance, (1991), pp.1l83-1194.
39.Robertson, John and Roger, Mills," The Use and Abuse of Corporate Prediction Model," Management Accounting, (1991), pp.20-22.
40.Smith, Raymond F., and Arthur, H. Winkor, "Change in Financial Structure of Unsuccessful Industrial Corporations, "University of Illinois, Bureau of Business Research, Bulletin NO.51. (1935)
41.Zmijewski, Mark "Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research,(1984),pp.59-82.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003087
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳錦烽zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Jing-Fengen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 儲蕙文zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 儲蕙文zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 1995en_US
dc.date.accessioned 29-Apr-2016 09:16:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 29-Apr-2016 09:16:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Apr-2016 09:16:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002003087en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/87856-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 會計學系zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在過去眾多破產預測研究中，多半致力於找尋將企業劃分為破產及非破產兩大類之分界點，鮮有將破產過程作階段式劃分之研究。而企業破產或財務重整皆意味著社會資源之誤置，其影響層面與企業的規模大小成正比，尤以公開發行股票之公司為甚。因此，本文以上市公司為研究母體，試圖發展描述企業破產過程之模型。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Most of researches about bankruptcy prediction seek for the cut-off point to classify the corporations into two groups: bankruptcy or nonbankruptcy; only few consider that bankruptcy is a gradual process and build a model to describe it. On the other hand, bankruptcy or financial restructure means the misuse of social resources. The impact of this misuse depends on the scale of the corporation The larger the corporation scale is, the greater the impact is, especially those corporations whose stocks traded publicly. This study intends to build a multiple-stage model to desribe the bankruptcy process of those corporations.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章緒論
第一節研究動機----------1
第二節問之確認----------2
第三節本文架構----------3
第二章文獻之探討
第一節證實研究之緣起----------5
第二節國外相關研究----------6
第三節國外近期之研究----------10
第四節國內相關研究----------19
第五節本章附註----------27
第三章研究設計
第一節研究之衍生----------28
第二節研究假設----------31
第三節操作性定義----------32
第四節研究期間----------32
第五節樣本選取----------33
第六節變數之選取及其定義----------34
第七節分析方法----------39
第八節資料來源----------43
第四章證實結果與分析
第一節樣本之選取結果----------44
第二節因素分析----------50
第三節預測模式之建立----------53
第四節財務困難過程與財務困難原因的診斷----------60
第五節預測模式的驗證----------61
第五章結論與建議
第一節研究結論----------63
第二節研究限制----------64
第三節後續研究之建議----------65
參考文獻----------66		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003087en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預警制度zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 上市公司zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 我國上市公司財務預警制度之研究zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文書籍及期刊
1.王光華，財務報表資料預知企業財務困難能力之探討，會計師會訊民國八十一年十、十一月。
2. 公司預警蓄勢待發━政府借重會計師發揮整頓企業功能，民國七十七年十一月，第3期會計師月刊。
3. 台灣景氣指標，第二十卷十九期，行政院經濟建設委員會經濟研究處。
4. 洪惠玲，營業現金流量對企業失敗預測能力之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十年六月。
5. 洪榮華，不景氣時期我國經營不良上市公司財務比率之探討，國立中山大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十三年，六月。
6 陳明賢，財務危機預測之計量分析研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十五年六月。
7. 張德偉，探索企業失敗的先兆，國立中興大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，國七十五年六月民。
8. 陳肇榮，運用財務比率預測企業財務危機之實証研究，國立政治大學企業管理研究所末出版博士論文，民國七十二年六月。
9. 陳蘊如，財務危機預警制度之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十年六月。
10. 葉金成，我國股票上市優良與否不優良企業財務特性之研究，國立政治大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國六十七年六月。
11. 彭昭英，SAS與統計分析，第三版，格致圖書有限公司，民國七十九年。
12. 楊巨昌，財務危機公司財務屬性探討及危機預測模式的建立，東海大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十五年六月。
13. 潘玉葉，台灣股票上市公司財務危機預警分析，淡江大學管理科學研究所博士論文，民國七十九年五月。
14. 劉建和，財務危機診斷的理論探討與實証研究，台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩上論文，民國八一年七月。
15. 談上市公司預警制度，會計研究月刊第58 期，民國七十九年六月。
16. 賴世權，企業正常或具失敗危機之關鍵性財務指標比較分析研究，國立中興大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年元月。

二、英文書籍及期刊
1.A1tman, Edward I, " Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy," The Journal of Finance (September 1968 ) ,pp.589-609.
2 _______ , "Capitalization of Lease and the Predictability of Financial Ratios : A Comment," Accounting Review(April 1976) ,pp.408-412.
3.Altman, Edward I, Robert G. Haldman and Paul Narayanan " Zata Analysis - A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporation ," Journal of banking and finance, (1977), pp.29-54.
4 Altman, Edward I., "Corporate Financial Distress: A Complete Guide to Predicting, Avoiding and Dealing with Bankruptcy," John Wiley & Sons, Inc.(1983)
5 ________ , "The Success Fail Prediction Model: An Internal Survey," Journal of Banking and Finance, (1984), pp.171-198.
6 ________ , " The Prediction of Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Garland Publishing, Inc.(1988)
7. ________ " Bankruptcy and Distress Restructure," N.Y.U. Salomon Center. (1993)
8.Baldwin, Jane and G. William Glezen," Bankruptcy Prediction Using Quarterly Financial Statement Data," Journal of Accounting ,Auditing & Finance, (1983), pp.269-285.
9.Bernstein, Leopold A. " Financial Statement Analysis: Theory, Application, and Interpretation," third Edition, Richard D. Irwin, Inc.,1983.
10.Beaver, William H., " Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure," Empirical Research In Accounting : Selected Study. Supplement to Journal 0 f Accounting Research
(1966), pp.71-111.
11.Blum, Marc, " Failing Company Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research ( Spring 1974 ) , pp.1-25.
12.Easterbrook, Frank H., " Is Corporate Bankruptcy Efficient? Journal of Financial Economics, (1990), pp.411-417 .
13.Eisenbeis, Robert A.," Pitfalls In the Application of Discriminant Analysis in Business, Finance, and Economics," The Journal of Finance, Vo1.32, (June 1977), pp.875-900.
14 Elam, R ick 11 The Effect of Lease Data on the Prediction Ability of Financial Ratios,1I The Accounting Review, (January 1975), pp.25-43.
15.Fitz, Patrick Paul J., " A Comparison of Success Industrial Enterprises with Those of Fail Firms," Certified Public Accountant, (October 1932), pp. 598 -605 .
16. Folke, Roy A., "Financial Ratios Become of Age," Journal of Accountancy, (September 1937), pp .209-210 .
17 .Gentry, J.A., Paul , Newbold, and David, T. Whitford," Classifying Bankrupt Firms with Fund Flow Components," Journal of Accounting Research (Spring), pp 146-160.
18 . _______ , " Prediction Bankruptcy : If Cash Flow` s not the Bottom Line, What Is ? " Financial Analysts Journal , (Sep/Oct 1985), pp.477-56.
19. Horriga, J. O., " A Short Story of Financial Ratios Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, (1968), pp.558-568.
20. Judge, George G. et. al. " Introduction to the Theory and Practices of Economics," John Wi1ey & Sons , Inc. (1982)
21. Keasey, K. And R. \\Vatson, " Non-Financial Symptoms and the Prediction of Small Company Failure: A Test of Argenti`s Hypotheses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, (Autumn 1987), pp.335-354.
22.Kelly, Dawn and Terry, 1. Amburgey, "Organization Inertia Momentum a Dynamic Model of Strategic Change," Academy of Management Journal, Vo1.34 (1991), pp.591-612.
23.Koh, Hian Chye, "The Sensitivity of Optimal Cut-Off Point to Misclassification Costs of Type T and Type TT Error in the
Concern Prediction Context, " Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, (January 1992), pp .18 7-197.
24. Laitine, E . K. " Financial Ratios and Different Failure Process," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, (September 1991), pp .649-673.
25.Lane, Sarah J. and Martha Schary, " Understanding the Business Failure Rate," Western Economic Association International. (1990)
26.Lau, Amy Ring Ling "A Five-State Financial Distress Prediction Model," Journal of Accounting Research, (Spring 1987): pp.127-138.
27.Lee, Mark I., 11 Z-Sore and Recent Events : Do They Shed Any Light? 11 Management Accounting, (January 1991), pp.44-48.
28. ________ , " Assessment of Performance Ranking as An Indicator of Future Survival," Management Accounting,(June 1991),
pp.44-49.
29. ________ , 11 Evaluating the Roberson Contribution to Bankruptcy Theory," Management Accounting, (January 1993), pp.59-61.
30 .Lev, Baruch, " Financial Failure and Informational Decomposition Measure", Expanding Perspectives in Contemporary Accounting, pp . 102-111.
31.Libby, Robert, 11 Accounting Ratios and the Prediction of Failure: Some Behavioral Evidence," Journal of Accounting Research, (spring 1975), pp.150-161.
32.Mearns, Albert, "A Test for Argeti`s Failure Model, "Management Accounting, (June 1991), pp.40-42.
33.Mensah, Yaw M., " An Examination of the Stationarity of Multivariate Bankruptcy Prediction Model: A Methodological Study," Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1983) : pp.380-395.
34.Merwin, Charles L., " Financial Small Corporations in Five Manufacturing Industries : 1926-1936, " National Bureau of Economic Research. (1942)
35.0hlson, James A., "Financial Ratios and the Probabilitic Prediction of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1980): pp.l09 -131.
36.Pinches, G.E., K.E. Mingo and J.E. Caruthers," The Stability of Financial Patterns in Industrial Organizations, " Journal of Finance", Vo1.28, (1973), pp.389-396.
37.Platt, Harlan & Marjorie, B. Platt, " Development of a Class of Stable Predictive Variables: the Case of Bankruptcy Prediction" Journal of Business Finance & Accounting (Spring 1990), pp.31-51.
38. ________ , "A Note on the Use of Industry-Relative Ratios in Bankruptcy Prediction, " Journal of Banking and Finance, (1991), pp.1l83-1194.
39.Robertson, John and Roger, Mills," The Use and Abuse of Corporate Prediction Model," Management Accounting, (1991), pp.20-22.
40.Smith, Raymond F., and Arthur, H. Winkor, "Change in Financial Structure of Unsuccessful Industrial Corporations, "University of Illinois, Bureau of Business Research, Bulletin NO.51. (1935)
41.Zmijewski, Mark "Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research,(1984),pp.59-82.		zh_TW