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題名 資本移動管制與沖銷干預:臺灣的實證研究 作者 李建強
Li, Jian Qiang貢獻者 朱美麗
Zhu, Mei Li
李建強
Li, Jian Qiang日期 1995 上傳時間 29-Apr-2016 09:57:13 (UTC+8) 摘要 以往探討資本移動管制與沖銷干預措施的理論文獻，大多以傳Mundell（1963）和Fleming（1962）的流量分析法作為分析架構，而忽略資產存量與資本流量之間的互動關係，為彌補上述缺失，本文採用Branson, Halttunen & Masson（1977）的資產選擇模型為基礎,先建立一個涵蓋資本管制、外匯干預與沖銷措施的理論模型，並設定對外國債券存量的需求作管制，進而以共積分析法對台灣地區1985：9－1989：11－1995：7這兩段期間的樣本資料，從事外匯干預，以及匯率、外國債券持有量等變數的長期均衡關係之實證研究。結果發現： 參考文獻 朱美麗、曹添旺、簡美瑟， 1995，「匯率與沖銷干預一台灣的實證研究」，手稿。朱美麗、曹添旺、簡美瑟， 1996，「 匯率、經常帳與平預型態」， 手稿。朱美麗、簡美瑟， 1996 , 「 資本帳管制與央行干預行為之分析」， 手稿。梁國樹， 1994 , 「 外匯自由化與金融發展」， 中央銀行季刊，第16 卷第3 期，中央銀行經濟研究處，頁8-20 。曹添旺、朱美麗、李慧虹， 1993，「 外匯干預、沖銷措施、匯率與非貿易財價格之動態調整」， 經濟論文叢刊，第21 卷第4 期，國立台灣大學，頁381-410 。張文雅、賴景昌， 1985 , 「 固定匯率、資本管制措施與總體經濟政策」，輔仁學誌， 17 號，頁57-65 。歐淑敏， 1992，「 資本管制與匯率動態調整一浮動匯率與雙元匯率的比較」，台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文。鍾俊文， 1990 , 「 資產選擇與貨幣政策一台灣的實證研究(1985-1989) 」，台灣大學經濟研究所博士論文。簡美瑟， 1996 , 「 財政赤字、匯率與央行沖銷平預行為一台灣的實證研究」政治大學經濟研究所博士論文，手稿。Arellano, J.P. (1982) ,"Macroeconomics Stability and the Optimal Degree of Capital Mobility," Journal of Development Economics 10, pp.377-393.Anderson, T.W. (1984) ,"An Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Analysis" New York, Wiley.Bhandari, J.S. (1982) ," A Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Open Economy Under Controlled Floating,"in J. Bhandari ed., Exchange Rate Determination and Adjustment,pp.241-276.Branson, W.H. (1984) ,"Exchange Rate Policy After a Decade of `floating`," in Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, ed. by J.F.O. Bilson & R.C. Marston, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.-----, H.Halttunen & P.Masson (1977) ,"Exchange Rates in the Short Run: The Dollar-Destschemark Rate," European Economic Review 10,pp.303-324.Calvo,G. (1985) ,"Currency Substitution and the Real Exchange Rate: The Utility Maximization Approach," Journal of International Money and Finance 4,pp.175-188.----- & C.Rodriguez ( 1977) , "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectation," Journal of Political Economy 85,pp.617-625.Chen,C.N. & T.W.Tsaur (1983) ,"Currency Substitution and Foreign Inflation," Quarterly Journal of Economics 98,pp.177-184.------, ------ & S.C.Liu (1989) , "Currency Substitution,Foreign Inflation, and Terms-of-Trade Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy 97,pp.955-964.Chu,YP., C.C.Lai, W.T.Hsiao & W.YChang (1986) ,"Exchange Rates Intervention and Capital Mobility Control : Comparisons and Simultaneous Optimization," Journal of Development Economics 23, pp.119-134.Cumby,R.E. (1984) ,"Monetary Policy under Dual Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance 3, pp.195-208.Dickey,D.A. & W.A.Fuller (1979) , "Distribution of the Estimatiors for Autoregressive Times Series with a Unit Root," Journal of the American Statistical Association 74,pp.427-431.----- & ----- (1981) , "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressiye Times Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica 49,pp.l 057-1 072.Dornbusch,R. (1975) ,"A Portfolio Balance Model of the Open Economy, " Journal of Monetary Economics l,pp.3-20.----- (1976) ,"Expectation and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy 84:6,pp.1161-1176.----- (1980) ,Open Economy Macroeconomics, New York: Basic Books Inc., Chapters 7 and 12.----- & Fischer, S. (1980) , "Exchange Rate and the Current Account," American Economic Review 70,pp.960-971 .Engel,R.F. & C.W.J. Granger (1987) ,"Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing," Econometrica 55,pp.251-276.----- & B.S.Yoo (1987) ,"Forecasting and Testing in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Econometrics 35,pp.143-159.Fleming,J.M. (1962) , "Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers 9,pp.369-379.Frenkel,JA. (1986) , "International Interdependence and the Constraints on Macroeconomic Policies," Weltwirtschaftliches Archlv 122,pp.615-645.FuUer,W.A. (1976) ,Introduction to Statistical Time Series, New York:John Wiley and Sons.Gonzalo,J (1989) , "Comparison of Five Alternative Methods of Estimating LongRun Equilibrium Relationship", Discuss Paper, No.89-55,University of California at San Diego. Granger,C.W.J. (1981) ,"Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification," Journal of Econometrics 16,pp.121-130.----- & P.Newbold (1974) ,"Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Journal of Econometrics,pp.111-120.Gultekin,M.N., N.B.Gultekin & A.Penati (1989) ,"Capital Controls and International Capital Market Segmentation : The Evidence from the Japanese and American Stock Markets," The Journal of Finance 44:4,pp.849-869.Gylfason, T. & IF .Helliwell (1983) ,"A Synthesis of Keynesian, Monetary, and Portfolio Approaches to Flexible Exchange Rates," The Economic Journal 93,pp.820-831.Jarque,C.M. & A.K.Bera (1980) ,"Efficient Tests for Nonnality, Homoscedasticity and Serial Independence of Regression Residuals, "Economic Letters 6,pp.255-259.Johansen,S. (1988) ,"Statistical Analysis of Co integration Vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control 12,pp.231-254.----- (1991) ,"Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Co integration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Regression Models," Econometrics 59,pp.1551-1580.----- (1992) , "Determination of the Cointegration Rank in the Precence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 54,pp.383-397.----- & KJuselius (1990) ,"Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52,pp.169-220.----- & ----- (1992) , "Testing Structural Hypothesis in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and the DIP for UK," Journal ofEconometrica53,pp.211-244.Johnson,H.G. (1958) ,"Towards a General Theory of the Balance of Payments," in his International Trade and Economic Growth. London: George Allen & Unwin.Juselius,K. (1990) , "Long-Run Relations in a Well Defined Statistical Model for the Data Generating Process, Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and DIP Relations, IIDiscussion Paper 90-11,Institute ofEconomics,_University of Copenhagen.Karfakis,C.I. & A.Parikh (1993) ,"A Cointegration Approach to Monetary Targeting in Australia," Australian Economic Papers,pp. 53-72.Kouri,P.J.K. (1976) ,"The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics 78,pp.255-275.Lai,C.C. &W.YChang (1987) ,"Flexible Exchange Rates, Capital Mobility Control and Macroeconomics Policies," Journal of Economic Development g,pp.183-188.-----, Y.P. Chu & W. Y. Chang (1989) ,"Exchange Rate Dynamics under Dual Exchange Rates: The Case of Neutral Intervention Policy," The Manchester School 57,pp.235-247.Liviatan,N. (1981) , "Monetary Expansion and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy 89,pp.1218-1228.Ljung,G.M. & G.E.P. Box (1978) ,"On a Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models," Biometrika 65,pp.297-303.MacDonald,R. (1988) , "Floating Exchange Rates:Theories and Evidence, "London :Allen and Unwin.Miller, S.M. (1991) , "Monetary Dynamics:An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 23,pp. 139-154.Min & McDonald (1993) , "The Portfolio-Balance Model of Exchange Rates : Short-run Behavior and Forecasting (The Korean Won/US. Dollar Case) ," International Economic Journal 7:4,pp.75-87.Mundell,R.A. (1963) , "Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates System," Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science 29,pp.475-485.Natividad,F & J.A. Stone (1990) ,"A General Equilibrium Model of Exchange Market Intervention with Variable Sterilization, " Journal of International Economics 29: 1,pp.133-145.Nelson,C.R. & C.I.P.Plosser (1982) ,"Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series,Some Evidence and Implications," Journal of Monetary Economics 10,pp.139-162.Niehans,J. (1977) ,"Exchange Rate Dynamics with Stock Flow Interaction," Journal of Political Economy 85,pp.1245-1257.Obstfeld,M. (1982) ,"The Capitalization of Income Streams and the Effects of OpenMarket Policy under Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Monetary Economics 2,pp·87-98.Osterwald-Lenum,M. (1992) , "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletinof Economics and Statistics 54:3,pp.461-472.Pantula, S. G. (1989) ,"Testing for unit roots in time series data," Econometric Theory 5,pp.256-271.Park, W.A. (1987) , "The Laursen-Metzler Effect under Currency Substitution," Bureau of Economic and Business Research Working Paper No.1267, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign,July.Phillips,P.B .C & P.Perron (1988) ,"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Biometrika 75:2,pp.335-346.Phylaktis, K. & G.E.Wood (1984) ,"An Analysis and Taxonomic Framework for the Study of Exchange Controls," in Black and Dorrance eds., Problems of International Finance,pp.149-166,Macmillian,London.Turnovsky,S J . (1983) , "Exchage Market Intervention Policies in a Small Open Economy," in J. Bhandari, ed., Exchange Rate Determination and Adjustment,pp.286-311. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003031 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 朱美麗 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Zhu, Mei Li en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李建強 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Li, Jian Qiang en_US dc.creator (作者) 李建強 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Li, Jian Qiang en_US dc.date (日期) 1995 en_US dc.date.accessioned 29-Apr-2016 09:57:13 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 29-Apr-2016 09:57:13 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 29-Apr-2016 09:57:13 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) B2002003031 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/88073 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 以往探討資本移動管制與沖銷干預措施的理論文獻，大多以傳Mundell（1963）和Fleming（1962）的流量分析法作為分析架構，而忽略資產存量與資本流量之間的互動關係，為彌補上述缺失，本文採用Branson, Halttunen & Masson（1977）的資產選擇模型為基礎,先建立一個涵蓋資本管制、外匯干預與沖銷措施的理論模型，並設定對外國債券存量的需求作管制，進而以共積分析法對台灣地區1985：9－1989：11－1995：7這兩段期間的樣本資料，從事外匯干預，以及匯率、外國債券持有量等變數的長期均衡關係之實證研究。結果發現： zh_TW dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章緒論 1第一節研究動機與目的..........1第二節文獻回顧..........4第三節本文架構..........8第二章理論模型 9第一節基本模型..........9第二節長期均衡及比較靜態分析..........15第三節資本管制措施的效果分析..........19一、資本管制措施的影響..........19二、資本移動完全不受管制..........21三、資本移動完全受到管制..........22第三章計量方法論 24第一節單根檢定..........25一、Dickey & Fuller檢定..........25二、Augmented Dickey & Fuller檢定..........26第二節共積檢定..........27一、Engle & Granger兩階段檢定法..........27二、Johansen最大概似估計法..........30第四章實證結果 38第一節前言..........38第二節單根檢定..........40第三節匯率干預方程式的估計..........42第四節共積分析..........43一、資本管制對匯率的影響..........43二、資本管制對外國債券持有量的影響..........48第五章結論與建議 52附錄一資產的實質需求函數 55附錄二長期均衡利率的分析 57附錄三動態安定條件 59附錄四干預和沖銷政策對匯率波動幅度之影響 63附表一民間匯出、人款自由化涗革 64附表二我國資本帳管理現況 65附表三外資投資國內證券市場之開放歷程 67參考文獻 68 zh_TW dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003031 en_US dc.title (題名) 資本移動管制與沖銷干預:臺灣的實證研究 zh_TW dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 朱美麗、曹添旺、簡美瑟， 1995，「匯率與沖銷干預一台灣的實證研究」，手稿。朱美麗、曹添旺、簡美瑟， 1996，「 匯率、經常帳與平預型態」， 手稿。朱美麗、簡美瑟， 1996 , 「 資本帳管制與央行干預行為之分析」， 手稿。梁國樹， 1994 , 「 外匯自由化與金融發展」， 中央銀行季刊，第16 卷第3 期，中央銀行經濟研究處，頁8-20 。曹添旺、朱美麗、李慧虹， 1993，「 外匯干預、沖銷措施、匯率與非貿易財價格之動態調整」， 經濟論文叢刊，第21 卷第4 期，國立台灣大學，頁381-410 。張文雅、賴景昌， 1985 , 「 固定匯率、資本管制措施與總體經濟政策」，輔仁學誌， 17 號，頁57-65 。歐淑敏， 1992，「 資本管制與匯率動態調整一浮動匯率與雙元匯率的比較」，台灣大學經濟研究所碩士論文。鍾俊文， 1990 , 「 資產選擇與貨幣政策一台灣的實證研究(1985-1989) 」，台灣大學經濟研究所博士論文。簡美瑟， 1996 , 「 財政赤字、匯率與央行沖銷平預行為一台灣的實證研究」政治大學經濟研究所博士論文，手稿。Arellano, J.P. (1982) ,"Macroeconomics Stability and the Optimal Degree of Capital Mobility," Journal of Development Economics 10, pp.377-393.Anderson, T.W. (1984) ,"An Introduction to Multivariate Statistical Analysis" New York, Wiley.Bhandari, J.S. (1982) ," A Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Open Economy Under Controlled Floating,"in J. Bhandari ed., Exchange Rate Determination and Adjustment,pp.241-276.Branson, W.H. (1984) ,"Exchange Rate Policy After a Decade of `floating`," in Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, ed. by J.F.O. Bilson & R.C. Marston, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.-----, H.Halttunen & P.Masson (1977) ,"Exchange Rates in the Short Run: The Dollar-Destschemark Rate," European Economic Review 10,pp.303-324.Calvo,G. (1985) ,"Currency Substitution and the Real Exchange Rate: The Utility Maximization Approach," Journal of International Money and Finance 4,pp.175-188.----- & C.Rodriguez ( 1977) , "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectation," Journal of Political Economy 85,pp.617-625.Chen,C.N. & T.W.Tsaur (1983) ,"Currency Substitution and Foreign Inflation," Quarterly Journal of Economics 98,pp.177-184.------, ------ & S.C.Liu (1989) , "Currency Substitution,Foreign Inflation, and Terms-of-Trade Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy 97,pp.955-964.Chu,YP., C.C.Lai, W.T.Hsiao & W.YChang (1986) ,"Exchange Rates Intervention and Capital Mobility Control : Comparisons and Simultaneous Optimization," Journal of Development Economics 23, pp.119-134.Cumby,R.E. (1984) ,"Monetary Policy under Dual Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance 3, pp.195-208.Dickey,D.A. & W.A.Fuller (1979) , "Distribution of the Estimatiors for Autoregressive Times Series with a Unit Root," Journal of the American Statistical Association 74,pp.427-431.----- & ----- (1981) , "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressiye Times Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica 49,pp.l 057-1 072.Dornbusch,R. (1975) ,"A Portfolio Balance Model of the Open Economy, " Journal of Monetary Economics l,pp.3-20.----- (1976) ,"Expectation and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy 84:6,pp.1161-1176.----- (1980) ,Open Economy Macroeconomics, New York: Basic Books Inc., Chapters 7 and 12.----- & Fischer, S. (1980) , "Exchange Rate and the Current Account," American Economic Review 70,pp.960-971 .Engel,R.F. & C.W.J. Granger (1987) ,"Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing," Econometrica 55,pp.251-276.----- & B.S.Yoo (1987) ,"Forecasting and Testing in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Econometrics 35,pp.143-159.Fleming,J.M. (1962) , "Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers 9,pp.369-379.Frenkel,JA. (1986) , "International Interdependence and the Constraints on Macroeconomic Policies," Weltwirtschaftliches Archlv 122,pp.615-645.FuUer,W.A. (1976) ,Introduction to Statistical Time Series, New York:John Wiley and Sons.Gonzalo,J (1989) , "Comparison of Five Alternative Methods of Estimating LongRun Equilibrium Relationship", Discuss Paper, No.89-55,University of California at San Diego. Granger,C.W.J. (1981) ,"Some Properties of Time Series Data and Their Use in Econometric Model Specification," Journal of Econometrics 16,pp.121-130.----- & P.Newbold (1974) ,"Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Journal of Econometrics,pp.111-120.Gultekin,M.N., N.B.Gultekin & A.Penati (1989) ,"Capital Controls and International Capital Market Segmentation : The Evidence from the Japanese and American Stock Markets," The Journal of Finance 44:4,pp.849-869.Gylfason, T. & IF .Helliwell (1983) ,"A Synthesis of Keynesian, Monetary, and Portfolio Approaches to Flexible Exchange Rates," The Economic Journal 93,pp.820-831.Jarque,C.M. & A.K.Bera (1980) ,"Efficient Tests for Nonnality, Homoscedasticity and Serial Independence of Regression Residuals, "Economic Letters 6,pp.255-259.Johansen,S. (1988) ,"Statistical Analysis of Co integration Vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control 12,pp.231-254.----- (1991) ,"Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Co integration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Regression Models," Econometrics 59,pp.1551-1580.----- (1992) , "Determination of the Cointegration Rank in the Precence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 54,pp.383-397.----- & KJuselius (1990) ,"Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52,pp.169-220.----- & ----- (1992) , "Testing Structural Hypothesis in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and the DIP for UK," Journal ofEconometrica53,pp.211-244.Johnson,H.G. (1958) ,"Towards a General Theory of the Balance of Payments," in his International Trade and Economic Growth. London: George Allen & Unwin.Juselius,K. (1990) , "Long-Run Relations in a Well Defined Statistical Model for the Data Generating Process, Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and DIP Relations, IIDiscussion Paper 90-11,Institute ofEconomics,_University of Copenhagen.Karfakis,C.I. & A.Parikh (1993) ,"A Cointegration Approach to Monetary Targeting in Australia," Australian Economic Papers,pp. 53-72.Kouri,P.J.K. (1976) ,"The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics 78,pp.255-275.Lai,C.C. &W.YChang (1987) ,"Flexible Exchange Rates, Capital Mobility Control and Macroeconomics Policies," Journal of Economic Development g,pp.183-188.-----, Y.P. Chu & W. Y. Chang (1989) ,"Exchange Rate Dynamics under Dual Exchange Rates: The Case of Neutral Intervention Policy," The Manchester School 57,pp.235-247.Liviatan,N. (1981) , "Monetary Expansion and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy 89,pp.1218-1228.Ljung,G.M. & G.E.P. Box (1978) ,"On a Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models," Biometrika 65,pp.297-303.MacDonald,R. (1988) , "Floating Exchange Rates:Theories and Evidence, "London :Allen and Unwin.Miller, S.M. (1991) , "Monetary Dynamics:An Application of Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 23,pp. 139-154.Min & McDonald (1993) , "The Portfolio-Balance Model of Exchange Rates : Short-run Behavior and Forecasting (The Korean Won/US. Dollar Case) ," International Economic Journal 7:4,pp.75-87.Mundell,R.A. (1963) , "Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates System," Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science 29,pp.475-485.Natividad,F & J.A. Stone (1990) ,"A General Equilibrium Model of Exchange Market Intervention with Variable Sterilization, " Journal of International Economics 29: 1,pp.133-145.Nelson,C.R. & C.I.P.Plosser (1982) ,"Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series,Some Evidence and Implications," Journal of Monetary Economics 10,pp.139-162.Niehans,J. (1977) ,"Exchange Rate Dynamics with Stock Flow Interaction," Journal of Political Economy 85,pp.1245-1257.Obstfeld,M. (1982) ,"The Capitalization of Income Streams and the Effects of OpenMarket Policy under Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Monetary Economics 2,pp·87-98.Osterwald-Lenum,M. (1992) , "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletinof Economics and Statistics 54:3,pp.461-472.Pantula, S. G. (1989) ,"Testing for unit roots in time series data," Econometric Theory 5,pp.256-271.Park, W.A. (1987) , "The Laursen-Metzler Effect under Currency Substitution," Bureau of Economic and Business Research Working Paper No.1267, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign,July.Phillips,P.B .C & P.Perron (1988) ,"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Biometrika 75:2,pp.335-346.Phylaktis, K. & G.E.Wood (1984) ,"An Analysis and Taxonomic Framework for the Study of Exchange Controls," in Black and Dorrance eds., Problems of International Finance,pp.149-166,Macmillian,London.Turnovsky,S J . (1983) , "Exchage Market Intervention Policies in a Small Open Economy," in J. Bhandari, ed., Exchange Rate Determination and Adjustment,pp.286-311. zh_TW
