社會轉型期中國民眾政治傾向的持續與變遷：一個類型學的分析

Abstract

本研究結合政治信任和政治效能感這兩類重要政治態度，建構了中國大陸權威體制下民眾的四類政治傾向。在權威體制和傳統政治文化的雙重影響下，中國民眾出現高政治信任卻低政治效能感的政治順從特徵。不過隨著改革開放的進行，中國社會經濟的整體轉型，民眾政治傾向會如何變化值得關注。本研究使用亞洲民主動態調查的兩波資料，並採用政治文化途徑與治理績效途徑，比較分析中國社經發生重要變化的過程中，影響民眾政治傾向及其持續與變遷的因素又為何。研究結果顯示：儘管民眾的政治信任出現下降，但政治效能感卻有所提升。這樣的變化也讓民眾政治傾向產生變動，讓政治疏離型和政治抗議型的民眾增多，但政治順從型和政治忠誠型民眾卻減少。本研究也發現政治文化和治理績效是影響民眾政治傾向的重要因素，不過在社會轉型期，中國權威體制下的政治文化和治理績效，對民眾政治支持的影響力卻有所下降。此外結果顯示，諸如年齡、戶籍、教育和社會階級等社會結構因素也在型塑民眾的政治傾向。

By combining political trust and political efficacy, this study presents a typology of citizen’s political orientation in authoritarian China. Under the dual influences of authoritarian rule and traditional political culture, citizens in Mainland China demonstrate a tendency of political obedience, characterized by high political trust but low political efficacy. However, this common tendency has undergone transformations of its continuity and changes in rapidly developing China, which calls for more research on this topic. Based on two waves of Asian Barometer Survey datasets from 2002 and 2011, this study employs both cultural and institutional approaches to shed light on the determinants of citizen’s political orientation and its continuity and change. The study found that in the context of rapid social and economic change, citizens’ political trust declined from 2002 to 2011, but political efficacy among the public increased slightly. Additionally, the proportion of politically loyal citizens and politically obedient citizens decreased as well in 2011, while the proportions of politically alienated and protesting citizens increased significantly. The study also found that cultural values and governmental performance turn out to be the key factors in shaping citizen’s political orientation, despite both factors becoming less influential on political support in a transitional society of authoritarian China. In addition, elements in social structure such as age, hukou（place of household registration）, education and social class, etc. also exerted significant effects on the formation of citizens’ political orientation.