中亞國家安全策略之研究

Abstract

1991年蘇聯解體後，其加盟共和國紛紛獨立，包括哈薩克、吉爾吉斯、塔吉克、土庫曼、烏茲別克等中亞5國亦分別宣告獨立，並立即獲得國際社會廣泛的承認。尤其憑藉著地緣戰略與豐富能源的兩大優勢，更使中亞地區成為國際強權與周邊次強權權力競逐的焦點。與此同時，中亞區域在冷戰時期，其安全維繫於蘇聯黨國體制與紅軍安全保障；然而，蘇聯解體後，非但既存的安全機制消失，造成中亞區域陷入安全意義上的「權力真空」，而且，還面臨著諸多「傳統安全」與「非傳統安全」因素的威脅。因此，對於中亞5個新興國家而言，其面臨的「安全威脅」，以及「回應對策」，即成為本論文研究的核心。\n 本論文採取層次分析，參據華爾茲的「行為體三概念」（個人、國家、戰爭）。從國家、區域與國際三個層次切入分析探討相關議題。首先，國家層次：探討權力結構（諸如：地理戰略、人口條件、自然資源、軍事能力、政治體制、經濟發展、社會結構，以客觀分析5國的基本綜合國力）、武器擴散、跨國犯罪、毒品經濟等議題。其次，區域層次：探討民族宗教結構、民族分離主義、宗教極端主義、國際恐怖主義、水資源運用、區域衝突、疆界糾紛等議題。第三，國際層次：探討國家利益、國家戰略、地緣政治、地緣經濟、國際衝突、國際合作等議題。\n 中亞的國家安全戰略目標旨在確保國家領土完整、主權獨立，以及生存與發展，而其內涵，則可從外交（含政治）、經濟、軍事及社會等四項策略，加以檢視與分析。具體而言，中亞國家由於綜合國力虛弱，實難以憑藉本身力量達成國家安全戰略目標；因此，中亞諸國係以外交戰略為核心，以「平衡大國」與「全面外交」為手段，積極與美國、俄羅斯、中國三大強權發展經貿與軍事合作關係，並以經貿合作為主軸，全面與其他國家交往。雖然，中亞國家對應安全威脅的策略，整體呈現一定實效，但亦存在諸多弱點；尤其，各國領導階層以鞏固與延續現實政權為決策的核心思維，實為中亞區域安全策略形成的關鍵。

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, its dependent states such as Kazkstan, Kygyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan declared for independence respectively, which soon won support in the international community. With the advantages of geo-strategic importance and abundant resources, Central Asia region became the arena between superpowers. During the Cold War, the security of Central Asia region was closely tied to the Soviet Union’s party-state system and its red army. Following the collapse of Soviet Union, security mechanism disintegrated and resulted in “power vacuum” in this region. Besides, there are “traditional security” and “non-traditional security” threats behind. Thus, security threats and response strategies of the five newly established countries mentioned above are the nucleus of research of this thesis.\n This thesis adopts the methodology of levels analysis, with reference to “the concept of actor (nation, region and war)” argued by Kenneth N. Waltz and studies the related issues from three different levels---nation, region and international. First, in terms of national level, the author analyzes state powers of the five countries from the structure of authority (such as geo-strategy, population, natural resources, military capabilities, political system, economic development, structure of society), proliferation of weaponry, transnational crimes, drug economy etc. Second, in regional level, the discussion focuses on the structure of religions, secessionism, religious extremism, international terrorism, utilization of water resource, regional conflicts and territorial disputes. Third, in terms of international level, the main points are national benefits, national strategy, geo-politics, geo-economy, international conflicts and international cooperation.\n The national security strategy of Central Asian states aims at ensuring the integrity of territory, the independence of sovereignty, the right of existence and continuing developments. The connotations of those issues can be reviewed and analyzed in the aspects of diplomacy, economy, military and society. Generally speaking, for the deficiency comprehensive national power, it is very hard for Central Asian states to achieve the goals of national security strategy on their own. Consequently, these countries resort to “balance of power” and “full engagement diplomacy” and aggressively develop economic and military cooperation with the U.S., Russia, and PRC. In the meantime, they try to enhance relationships of other countries with emphasis on economic cooperation. Although the policy works as a whole, there are still vulnerable points. In particular, the formation of the regional security strategy in Central Asia hinges upon the ultimate pursuit of the consolidation and extension of the realistic regimes by the leaderships of various countries.