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題名 貨幣政策之經濟成長效果
作者 江惠珠
Jiang, Hui-Zhu
貢獻者 高明瑞
Kao, Ming-Rea
江惠珠
Jiang, Hui-Zhu
日期 1998
上傳時間 2016-05-11
摘要 經濟成長是目前各國所希望追求的目標，本文之研究目的在於探討貨幣政策對經濟社會長期產出成長之影響效果。因為貨幣政策是決定通貨膨脹的重要因素，故將焦點放在通貨膨與產出成長的關係。從1950年代開始至今，經濟學家對於通貨膨脹的經濟成長效果各家說法不一，所以本文先行介紹從新古典成長理論發展至內生成長理論的相關文獻，接著即在內生長理論的架構下，藉由理論模型的推導來了解通貨膨脹的傳遞途徑。本文歸納出通貨膨脹為經由直接或間接改變投資水準和投資效率，來達到產出成長效果。實證方法採用傳統的最小平方迴歸估計法及近代發展的共整合檢定法，實證對象為亞洲地區之台灣、韓國、泰國、馬來西亞、印尼五國，分別就通貨膨脹與產出成長可能之關係進行檢測。實證結果發現在通貨膨脹較嚴重的國家，其對經濟成長有負面的影響效果，至於通貨膨脹較緩和的地區，通貨膨脹與產出成長之間的關係較不顯著甚至無關，兩者的關係為非線性。因此政府當局因視實際社會情形，決定是否採行壓抑或穩定通貨膨脹的貨幣政策。
參考文獻 1. Abel, A. (1985), "Dynamic Behavior of Capital Accumulation in a Cash-in-advance Model," Journal of Monetary Economics, vo1.16, pp . 55~72.
     2. Alexander, W. R J. (1997), "Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Grwoth Equation," Applied Economics, voL29, pp.233~238.
     3. Andres, J. , R Domenech and C. Molinas (1996) ``Macroeconomic Performance and Convergence in OECD Countries," European Economic Review, vol.40,
     pp.1683- 1704.
     4. Andres,J. and I. Hernando (1997), "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence for the OECD," NBER Working Paper Series1050.
     5. Barro, R J. (1991), ``Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," Quarterly
     Journal of Economics, vol. 104, ppA07-443.
     6. Barro, R. J. (1995), "Inflation and Economic Growth," Banking of England Quarterly Bulletin, voL35, pp.16~176.
     7. Barro, R. J. (1996), "Inflation and Growth, ``Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Quarterly Review, vol. 78, pp.153-169.
     8. Barro, R J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1995), Economic Growth (New York: McGrawHill).
     9.Bera, A. K. , C. M. Jarque and L. F. Lee (1984), "Testing the Normality Assumption in Limited Dependent Variable Models" International Economic Review vol.25, pp. 563-578.
     10.Brock, W. A. (1974), ``Money and Growth: The Case of Long Run Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, vo1.l5, pp.7S0.
     l1.Bruno, M. and W. Easterly (1995), "Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Paper Series 5209.
     12.Bullard,J. and J. W. Keating (1995), "The Long-Run Relationship Between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.36, ppA77-496.
     13.Cameron, N. , D. Hum and W. Simpson (1996), "Stylized Facts and Stylized Illusions: Inflation and Productivity Revisited," Canadian Journal of Economics, vol.29, pp.152-162.
     14.Cecchetti, S. (1994), "Comment on Ball," in: N.G.Mankiw, ed., Monetary Policy,
     University of Chicago Press, Chicago,IL, pp.188-193.
     15.Chari, V. v. ,L. E. Jones and R. E. Manuelli (1995), "The Growth Effects of Monetary Policy," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, vol. 19, pp.18~32.
     16. Chari, V. V. , L. E. Jones and R. E. Manuelli (1996), ``Inflation, Growth, Financial
     Intermediation," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Quarterly Review, vol. 78, pp.41~58.
     17.Clark, T. E. (1997), "Cross-Country Evidence on Long-Run Growth and Inflation,"
     Economic Inquiry, vol.35, pp.70--81.
     18 .Cooley, T. F. and G. D. Hansen, (1989) "The inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle
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     19.Cozier, B. and 1. Selody (1992), "Inflation and Macroeconomic Performance: Some
     Cross-Country Evidence," Department of Monetary and Financial Analysis, Bank of Canada.
     20.Danthine et al., J. P.(1987), "On the Superneutrality of Money in a Stochastic Dynamic Macroeconomic Model," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.20, pp. 475
     ~499 .
     21.De Gregorio, 1. (1992), "The Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth: Lessons from Latin America," European Economic Review, voI.36, pp.417~425 .
     22.De Gregorio, 1. (1993), "Inflation, Taxation, and Long-Run Growth." Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.31, pp.271-298.
     23 .Domer, E. D. (1946), "Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth and Employment," Econometrica, vol.14, pp.137-147.
     24.Dornbusch, R. and 1. A. Frenkel, (1973), "Inflation and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Ranking, vol.5, pp . l4l~156.
     25.Ericsson, N. R. , J. S. Irons and R. W. Tryon, (1993), "Output and Inflation in the Long-Run," unpublished manuscript, Board of Governors of Federal Reserve, September.
     26.Feenstra, R. C. (1986), "Functional Equivalence Between Liquidity Costs and the Utility of Money," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.17, pp.271- 291
     27.Fischer, S. (1979), "Capital Accumulation on the Transition Path in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Econometrica, vo1.47, pp.1433-1439.
     28.Fischer, S. (1983), ``Inflation and Growth," Working Paper 1235. National Bureau of Economic Research.
     29.Fischer, S. (1991), "Growth, Macroeconomics, and development," NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, vol.6, ed. O. 1. Blanchard and S. Fischer, pp.329-364. Cambridge, Mass: MIT PresslNational Bureau of Economic Research. 30.Fischer, S. (1993), ``The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.32, pp.485-512.
     31.Fischer, M. and 1. Seater, (1993), "Long-run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework, American Economic Review vol.83, pp.402~415.
     32.Freeman, S. and G. W. Huffinan, (1991) «Inside Money, Output, and Causality." International Economic Review vo1.32, pp.645-667 .
     33 .Godfreg, L. G. (1988), "Misspecificiation Tests in Economics. The Lagrange Multiplier Principle and Other Approach" Cambridge University Press.
     34.Gomme, P. (1993), ``Money and Growth Revisited: Measuring the Costs of inflation in an Endogenous Growth Model." Journal of Monetary Economics vol.32, pp . 51~77.
     35.Gonzalo, J. (1989), "Comparison of Five Alternative Method of Estimating LongRun, Equilibrium Relationship," Discussion Paper,pp.89~95, University of California at San Digego.
     36.Greenwood, J. and G. W. Huffinan (1987), "A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of inflation and Unemployment." Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 19, pp . 23~28 .
     37.Grier, K. B. and G. Tullock (1989), "An Empirical Analysis of Cross-Sectional Economic Growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.24, pp.259~276.
     38.Grimes, A. (1991), ``The Effects of Inflation on Growth: Some International Evidence," Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, vol. 127, pp.631-644.
     39.Harrod, R. F.(1939), "An Essay in Dynamic Theory," Economic Journal, vol.49, pp.14-33 .
     40.Haslag, 1. H. (1995), ``Monetary Policy, Banking, and Growth" (Unpublished manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas).
     41.Ireland, P. N. (1994), ``Money and Grwoth: An Alternative Approach." American Economic Review vol. 84, pp.47-65.
     42.Johansen, S. (1988), "Statistical Analysis of Co integration Vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, vol. 12, pp231~254, North-Holland.
     43.Johansen, S. (1992), "Determination of the Cointegration Rank in the Precence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 54, pp.383-397.
     44.Johansen, S. and K. Juslius, (1992), `testing Structuat Hypotheses in a Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the PPP and the VIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, vol.53, pp.211~244.
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G91NCCU5872012
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 高明瑞zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Kao, Ming-Reaen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 江惠珠zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Jiang, Hui-Zhuen_US
dc.creator (作者) 江惠珠zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Jiang, Hui-Zhuen_US
dc.date (日期) 1998en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2016-05-11-
dc.date.available 2016-05-11-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2016-05-11-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G91NCCU5872012en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/96439-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟學系zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 經濟成長是目前各國所希望追求的目標，本文之研究目的在於探討貨幣政策對經濟社會長期產出成長之影響效果。因為貨幣政策是決定通貨膨脹的重要因素，故將焦點放在通貨膨與產出成長的關係。從1950年代開始至今，經濟學家對於通貨膨脹的經濟成長效果各家說法不一，所以本文先行介紹從新古典成長理論發展至內生成長理論的相關文獻，接著即在內生長理論的架構下，藉由理論模型的推導來了解通貨膨脹的傳遞途徑。本文歸納出通貨膨脹為經由直接或間接改變投資水準和投資效率，來達到產出成長效果。實證方法採用傳統的最小平方迴歸估計法及近代發展的共整合檢定法，實證對象為亞洲地區之台灣、韓國、泰國、馬來西亞、印尼五國，分別就通貨膨脹與產出成長可能之關係進行檢測。實證結果發現在通貨膨脹較嚴重的國家，其對經濟成長有負面的影響效果，至於通貨膨脹較緩和的地區，通貨膨脹與產出成長之間的關係較不顯著甚至無關，兩者的關係為非線性。因此政府當局因視實際社會情形，決定是否採行壓抑或穩定通貨膨脹的貨幣政策。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章緒論..........1
     第二章通貨膨脹與產出成長關係之演進..........3
     第一節新古典成長模型..........3
     第二節內生成長模型..........7
     第三章內生化成長模型..........11
     第一節通貨膨脹對經濟成長沒有影響..........12
     第二節通貨膨脹影響投資水準的途徑..........16
     第三節通貨膨脹影響投資效率的途徑..........18
     第四節加入銀行體系..........23
     第五節其他模型介紹..........26
     第四章實證分析..........29
     第一節實證回顧..........29
     第二節資料說明與實證過程..........33
     第三節實證結果..........36
     第五章結論..........41
     數學附錄..........63
     參考文獻..........74		zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G91NCCU5872012en_US
dc.title (題名) 貨幣政策之經濟成長效果zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1. Abel, A. (1985), "Dynamic Behavior of Capital Accumulation in a Cash-in-advance Model," Journal of Monetary Economics, vo1.16, pp . 55~72.
     2. Alexander, W. R J. (1997), "Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Grwoth Equation," Applied Economics, voL29, pp.233~238.
     3. Andres, J. , R Domenech and C. Molinas (1996) ``Macroeconomic Performance and Convergence in OECD Countries," European Economic Review, vol.40,
     pp.1683- 1704.
     4. Andres,J. and I. Hernando (1997), "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth? Evidence for the OECD," NBER Working Paper Series1050.
     5. Barro, R J. (1991), ``Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," Quarterly
     Journal of Economics, vol. 104, ppA07-443.
     6. Barro, R. J. (1995), "Inflation and Economic Growth," Banking of England Quarterly Bulletin, voL35, pp.16~176.
     7. Barro, R. J. (1996), "Inflation and Growth, ``Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Quarterly Review, vol. 78, pp.153-169.
     8. Barro, R J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1995), Economic Growth (New York: McGrawHill).
     9.Bera, A. K. , C. M. Jarque and L. F. Lee (1984), "Testing the Normality Assumption in Limited Dependent Variable Models" International Economic Review vol.25, pp. 563-578.
     10.Brock, W. A. (1974), ``Money and Growth: The Case of Long Run Perfect Foresight," International Economic Review, vo1.l5, pp.7S0.
     l1.Bruno, M. and W. Easterly (1995), "Inflation Crises and Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Paper Series 5209.
     12.Bullard,J. and J. W. Keating (1995), "The Long-Run Relationship Between Inflation and Output in Postwar Economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.36, ppA77-496.
     13.Cameron, N. , D. Hum and W. Simpson (1996), "Stylized Facts and Stylized Illusions: Inflation and Productivity Revisited," Canadian Journal of Economics, vol.29, pp.152-162.
     14.Cecchetti, S. (1994), "Comment on Ball," in: N.G.Mankiw, ed., Monetary Policy,
     University of Chicago Press, Chicago,IL, pp.188-193.
     15.Chari, V. v. ,L. E. Jones and R. E. Manuelli (1995), "The Growth Effects of Monetary Policy," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, vol. 19, pp.18~32.
     16. Chari, V. V. , L. E. Jones and R. E. Manuelli (1996), ``Inflation, Growth, Financial
     Intermediation," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Quarterly Review, vol. 78, pp.41~58.
     17.Clark, T. E. (1997), "Cross-Country Evidence on Long-Run Growth and Inflation,"
     Economic Inquiry, vol.35, pp.70--81.
     18 .Cooley, T. F. and G. D. Hansen, (1989) "The inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle
     Model." American Economic Review, vol. 79, pp. 733~748.
     19.Cozier, B. and 1. Selody (1992), "Inflation and Macroeconomic Performance: Some
     Cross-Country Evidence," Department of Monetary and Financial Analysis, Bank of Canada.
     20.Danthine et al., J. P.(1987), "On the Superneutrality of Money in a Stochastic Dynamic Macroeconomic Model," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.20, pp. 475
     ~499 .
     21.De Gregorio, 1. (1992), "The Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth: Lessons from Latin America," European Economic Review, voI.36, pp.417~425 .
     22.De Gregorio, 1. (1993), "Inflation, Taxation, and Long-Run Growth." Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.31, pp.271-298.
     23 .Domer, E. D. (1946), "Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth and Employment," Econometrica, vol.14, pp.137-147.
     24.Dornbusch, R. and 1. A. Frenkel, (1973), "Inflation and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Ranking, vol.5, pp . l4l~156.
     25.Ericsson, N. R. , J. S. Irons and R. W. Tryon, (1993), "Output and Inflation in the Long-Run," unpublished manuscript, Board of Governors of Federal Reserve, September.
     26.Feenstra, R. C. (1986), "Functional Equivalence Between Liquidity Costs and the Utility of Money," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.17, pp.271- 291
     27.Fischer, S. (1979), "Capital Accumulation on the Transition Path in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Econometrica, vo1.47, pp.1433-1439.
     28.Fischer, S. (1983), ``Inflation and Growth," Working Paper 1235. National Bureau of Economic Research.
     29.Fischer, S. (1991), "Growth, Macroeconomics, and development," NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, vol.6, ed. O. 1. Blanchard and S. Fischer, pp.329-364. Cambridge, Mass: MIT PresslNational Bureau of Economic Research. 30.Fischer, S. (1993), ``The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.32, pp.485-512.
     31.Fischer, M. and 1. Seater, (1993), "Long-run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework, American Economic Review vol.83, pp.402~415.
     32.Freeman, S. and G. W. Huffinan, (1991) «Inside Money, Output, and Causality." International Economic Review vo1.32, pp.645-667 .
     33 .Godfreg, L. G. (1988), "Misspecificiation Tests in Economics. The Lagrange Multiplier Principle and Other Approach" Cambridge University Press.
     34.Gomme, P. (1993), ``Money and Growth Revisited: Measuring the Costs of inflation in an Endogenous Growth Model." Journal of Monetary Economics vol.32, pp . 51~77.
     35.Gonzalo, J. (1989), "Comparison of Five Alternative Method of Estimating LongRun, Equilibrium Relationship," Discussion Paper,pp.89~95, University of California at San Digego.
     36.Greenwood, J. and G. W. Huffinan (1987), "A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of inflation and Unemployment." Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 19, pp . 23~28 .
     37.Grier, K. B. and G. Tullock (1989), "An Empirical Analysis of Cross-Sectional Economic Growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.24, pp.259~276.
     38.Grimes, A. (1991), ``The Effects of Inflation on Growth: Some International Evidence," Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, vol. 127, pp.631-644.
     39.Harrod, R. F.(1939), "An Essay in Dynamic Theory," Economic Journal, vol.49, pp.14-33 .
     40.Haslag, 1. H. (1995), ``Monetary Policy, Banking, and Growth" (Unpublished manuscript, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas).
     41.Ireland, P. N. (1994), ``Money and Grwoth: An Alternative Approach." American Economic Review vol. 84, pp.47-65.
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