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題名 能源系統低碳轉型的策略與挑戰 -轉型管理理論與個案分析
Strategy and Challenge of Energy Transition to Low-Carbon Energy System - Transition Management Theory And Case Study
作者 張子敬
貢獻者 連弘宜
Lien, Hong Yi
張子敬
關鍵詞 能源轉型
轉型管理
再生能源
荷蘭
日期 2016
上傳時間 22-Aug-2016 13:29:48 (UTC+8)
摘要 原油需求不斷增長、能源市場投機活動旺盛以及中東地區局勢緊張等因素,不斷對世界的現行的能源供給造成問題,絕大多數國家都可能會面臨能源供應安全的困境。另外,由於過度的使用化石能源,排放大量的溫室效應氣體,有學者指出全球正面臨到能源供應與環境崩毀的雙重危機。更嚴重的是,2011年日本福島發生嚴重核災,一度被視為可替氣候變遷減輕壓力的核能發展受到重挫,甚至導致部分國家更改既定核能政策。如何在保障國內能源安全的情況下,面對氣候變遷所帶來的衝擊,成為了各國能源治理的首要困難,導致能源轉型在近幾年受到相當大的重視。再生能源快速的成長,被視為追求環境的永續治理的解決方案之一,大量的人力與資源投入於發展再生能源,但仔細觀察現今能源系統的發展情形,可以發現能源轉型的腳步雖然在過去幾年已逐漸加快,卻未能緩解氣候變遷帶來的壓力。因此,除了長久以來人們所重視的科學技術進步之外,開始出現對於社會技術改革的呼聲。本文以荷蘭為例,荷蘭早在2001即展開現階段的能源轉型計畫,企圖以新的思維,投入社會技術改革來誘發整個系統的變化,然而最終卻在面臨一連串政治困境後計畫縮減。透過其政策的核心架構「轉型管理理論」作為分析途徑,檢討能源轉型政策可能面臨的挑戰,分析荷蘭推動能源轉型計畫的經驗,能釐清能源轉型計畫所面臨到的障礙。
參考文獻 一、 中文資料
(一). 書籍
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(二). 期刊
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(三). 網路資料
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二、 英文資料
(一). 書籍
Gallagher, Kelly Sims, Acting in Time on Energy Policy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2009).
Loorbach, Derk, Transition Management: New Mode of Governance for Sustainable Development (Erasmus University Rotterdam, 2007).
Müler-Kraenner, Sascha, Energy Security: Re-Measuring The World (Earthscan, 2008).
(二). 書籍篇章
Rip, Arie and René Kemp, “Technological Change”, in Malone EL Rayner S., Social Science & Medicine (Battelle Press, 1998), pp.327-399.
Rotmans, Jan, Rene Kemp and Marjolein Van Asselt, “Transition management: a promising policy perspective”, in Michael Decker and Friederike Wütscher, Interdisciplinarity in Technology Assessment (Springer, 2001), pp.165-197.

(三). 期刊論文
Berkhout, Frans, Adrian Smith and Andy Stirling, “Socio-Technological Regimes and Transition Contexts”, System Innovation and The Transition to Sustainability: Theory, Evidence and Policy, (2004), pp.48-75.
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(四). 會議論文
Kemp, René, and Derk Loorbach, “Governance for Sustainability through Transition Management”, Paper presented at the Open Meeting of Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, Montreal, Canada, (2003)

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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
100253026
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100253026
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 連弘宜zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lien, Hong Yien_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張子敬zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 張子敬zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2016en_US
dc.date.accessioned 22-Aug-2016 13:29:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 22-Aug-2016 13:29:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 22-Aug-2016 13:29:48 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0100253026en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100543-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 外交學系zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 100253026zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 原油需求不斷增長、能源市場投機活動旺盛以及中東地區局勢緊張等因素,不斷對世界的現行的能源供給造成問題,絕大多數國家都可能會面臨能源供應安全的困境。另外,由於過度的使用化石能源,排放大量的溫室效應氣體,有學者指出全球正面臨到能源供應與環境崩毀的雙重危機。更嚴重的是,2011年日本福島發生嚴重核災,一度被視為可替氣候變遷減輕壓力的核能發展受到重挫,甚至導致部分國家更改既定核能政策。如何在保障國內能源安全的情況下,面對氣候變遷所帶來的衝擊,成為了各國能源治理的首要困難,導致能源轉型在近幾年受到相當大的重視。再生能源快速的成長,被視為追求環境的永續治理的解決方案之一,大量的人力與資源投入於發展再生能源,但仔細觀察現今能源系統的發展情形,可以發現能源轉型的腳步雖然在過去幾年已逐漸加快,卻未能緩解氣候變遷帶來的壓力。因此,除了長久以來人們所重視的科學技術進步之外,開始出現對於社會技術改革的呼聲。本文以荷蘭為例,荷蘭早在2001即展開現階段的能源轉型計畫,企圖以新的思維,投入社會技術改革來誘發整個系統的變化,然而最終卻在面臨一連串政治困境後計畫縮減。透過其政策的核心架構「轉型管理理論」作為分析途徑,檢討能源轉型政策可能面臨的挑戰,分析荷蘭推動能源轉型計畫的經驗,能釐清能源轉型計畫所面臨到的障礙。zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章、緒論 1
第一節、 研究背景與動機 1
第二節、 文獻回顧 4
第三節、 研究途徑與方法 16
第四節、 研究範圍與限制 18
第五節、 章節安排 20
第二章、化石能源主導的能源系統 25
第一節、 能源架構與電力系統的轉型 26
第二節、 化石能源發電的現狀與發展 32
第三節、 核能發電 46
第四節、 小結 49
第三章、再生能源的發展現狀 51
第一節、 再生能源發電概況 52
第二節、 兩大發展潛力-太陽能與風能 55
第三節、 受環境限制的水力發電、生質能、海洋能與地熱能 68
第四節、 小結 77
第四章、荷蘭的能源轉型經驗與分析 79
第一節、 轉型理論與多層次架構 79
第二節、 荷蘭能源轉型的歷史經驗與新的能源轉型 90
第三節、 荷蘭能源轉型計畫的檢討 97
第四節、 小結 102
第五章、結論 104
第一節、 研究發現 104
第二節、 後續研究建議 108
參考書目 110
zh_TW
dc.format.extent 2366525 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0100253026en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 能源轉型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 轉型管理zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 再生能源zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 荷蘭zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 能源系統低碳轉型的策略與挑戰 -轉型管理理論與個案分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Strategy and Challenge of Energy Transition to Low-Carbon Energy System - Transition Management Theory And Case Studyen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 中文資料
(一). 書籍
Godfrey Boyle、Bob Everett、Janet Ramage著,汪淮譯,能源系統與可持續發展(Energy Systems and Sustainability),(台北:五南,2010)。
Jones著,鄭詠澤、何豪毅譯,綠領經濟:下一波景氣大復甦的新動力 (台北:野人文化,2010年)。
Richard A. Muller著,顏誠廷譯,給未來總統的能源課-頂尖物理學家眼中的能源真相,(台北:漫遊者文化,2014)
朱浤源,撰寫博碩士論文實戰手冊,(台北:正中,1999年)。
唐風,新能源戰爭,(台北:大地,2009年)。
葉至誠,社會科學概論,(台北:揚智文化事業,2000年)。
蔡岳勳主編,當代國際新能源政策與法制發展,(新北市:Airiti Press,2011年)。
鍾倫納,應用社會科學硏究法,(香港:商務印書館,1992年)。

(二). 期刊
王裕隆,「福島事件後的世界核能發展趨勢」,巴黎視野,第23期 (2013年),頁4-12。
洪進,鄭梅與余文濤,「轉型管理:環境治理的新模式」,中國人口資源與環境,第20卷第9期 (2010年),頁78-83。
徐孝明,「第二次石油危機的動因及其影響新探」,首都師範大學學報(社會科學版) 世界歷史研究,第4期 (2009年),頁18-23。
陳大麟,「石油、天然氣的特性」,科學發展,第356期 (2002年),頁60~63。
陳起鳳、劉銘龍及柳中明,「國際綠色電力制度引進之瓶頸與可行性初探」, Global Change and Sustainable Development,第2卷第1期 (2008年),頁1-13。
張永源及康志堅,「2014全球風力發電市場發展趨勢與展望」,中華技術,第103期 (2014年),頁26-37。
張揚狀,「21世紀能源革命 –生質能」,科學發展,第520期 (2016年),頁46-50。
劉廣定,「追求永續-從認識生質能開始」,科學月刊,第三十八卷第四期 (2007年),頁282-286。
盧乙嘉及宋聖榮,「未來能源之星—地熱」,科學發展,第475期 (2012年),頁54-61。
謝伯欣、湯承倫及林亭汝,「以荷蘭創新水資源管理系統為個案探討台灣因應氣候變遷之技術革新及政策規劃方向」,環境與世界,第26期 (2012年),頁1-32。
蕭永盛,「水力發電」,水利土木科技資訊,第58期 (2013年),頁46-51。
鍾佳安,「從一九七三年至二○○○ 年美國石油危機與對策看經濟安全概念」, 問題與研究,第41卷第6期 (2002年),頁1-24。

(三). 網路資料
王俊凱與李堅明,「台灣永續能源指標」,台灣綜合研究院,http://www.tri.org.tw/research/impdf/748.pdf (最後檢視2013/05/06)
甘魯生,「全球新能源的展望—頁岩氣」,科學月刊,2014年,http://scimonth.blogspot.tw/2014/03/blog-post_1375.html (最後檢視2016/06/17)。
余佳璋、馬綺韓及張春炎,「環境政治(三):中緬油管戰略外的環境問題」,科技部科技大關園,http://scitechvista.most.gov.tw/zh-tw/Feature/C/0/13/10/1/1588.htm (最後檢視2016/06/17)
呂嘉容,「國際天然氣產業發展與價格政策之研究」,台灣經濟研究院,2012年3月,http://km.twenergy.org.tw/KnowledgeFree/knowledge_more?id=205 (最後檢視2016/07/27)
闕棟鴻,「德國核電廠關閉之衝擊與再生能源之發展」,工業技術研究院綠能與環境研究所,http://km.twenergy.org.tw/ReadFile/?p=Reference&n=201272161532.docx (最後檢視2016/07/27)
藍弋丰,「伊萬帕計畫宣布緩刑,唱出聚光式太陽能悲歌」,Technews科技新報,http://finance.technews.tw/2016/03/25/ivanpahs-problems-could-signal-the-end-of-concentrated-solar-in-the-u-s/ (最後檢視2016/05/17)
「2015可再生能源全球現狀報告」,Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21),http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/GSR2015_Key-Findings_CHINESE.pdf (最後檢視2016/07/27)
「BP 2035世界能源展望」,BP,http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp-country/zh_cn/Download_PDF/Report_BP2030EnergyOutlook/EO2035_Chinese_Version.pdf (最後檢視2016/06/17)。
「可再生能源投資:到達全新高度,刷新世界紀錄」,法蘭克福財經管理大學-聯合國環境規劃署與彭博新能源財經,http://fs-unep-centre.org/sites/default/files/attachments/press_release_gtr_2016_in_chinese.pdf (最後檢視2016/06/17)
「主要國際組織能源情勢發展-國際能源總署(IEA)」,台灣經濟研究院:能源國際合作資訊網,http://apecenergy.tier.org.tw/energy4/iea.asp (最後檢視2016/06/17)。
「全球再生能源裝置量1985GW 再創新高」,綠能趨勢網,http://pv.energytrend.com.tw/news/20160411-13660.html (最後檢視2016年4月27日)。
「全新能源架構,推動有效轉型」,世界經濟論壇與埃森哲公司, http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_NewEnergyArchitecture_IndustryAgenda_2012_CN.pdf,
「冰島地熱能源 評估供應英國」,聯合新聞網,2015年,http://udn.com/news/story/6811/1282302-%E5%86%B0%E5%B3%B6%E5%9C%B0%E7%86%B1%E8%83%BD%E6%BA%90-%E8%A9%95%E4%BC%B0%E4%BE%9B%E6%87%89%E8%8B%B1%E5%9C%8B (最後檢視2016/05/29)
「技術路線圖-核能」,國際能源總署(International Energy Agency, IEA),2010,http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/nuclear_cn.pdf (最後檢視2016/06/17)。
「砍雨林趕原民 全球抗議巴西美山水壩」,公視新聞議題中心,2011年,http://pnn.pts.org.tw/main/2011/08/23/%E7%A0%8D%E9%9B%A8%E6%9E%97%E8%B6%95%E5%8E%9F%E6%B0%91-%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E6%8A%97%E8%AD%B0%E5%B7%B4%E8%A5%BF%E7%BE%8E%E5%B1%B1%E6%B0%B4%E5%A3%A9/ (最後檢視2016/05/24)
「核安/經濟復甦強烈期盼 日本重擁核能發電」,中央日報網路報。http://www.cdnews.com.tw/cdnews_site/docDetail.jsp?coluid=141&docid=102240999 (最後檢視 2013/05/16)
「提高大潭電廠容量因數對抒解用電高峰沒有幫助」,台灣電力公司,2014年,http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/news/news01-1.aspx?sid=297 (最後檢視2016/5/23)
「煤炭的難題」,國家地理雜誌,2014年4月1日,http://www.ngtaiwan.com/4377 (最後檢視2016/06/17)
「福島核災事件後各國核能發展趨勢」,台灣電力公司 http://info.taipower.com.tw/info71/prj01_2.html (最後檢視2013/05/06)

二、 英文資料
(一). 書籍
Gallagher, Kelly Sims, Acting in Time on Energy Policy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2009).
Loorbach, Derk, Transition Management: New Mode of Governance for Sustainable Development (Erasmus University Rotterdam, 2007).
Müler-Kraenner, Sascha, Energy Security: Re-Measuring The World (Earthscan, 2008).
(二). 書籍篇章
Rip, Arie and René Kemp, “Technological Change”, in Malone EL Rayner S., Social Science & Medicine (Battelle Press, 1998), pp.327-399.
Rotmans, Jan, Rene Kemp and Marjolein Van Asselt, “Transition management: a promising policy perspective”, in Michael Decker and Friederike Wütscher, Interdisciplinarity in Technology Assessment (Springer, 2001), pp.165-197.

(三). 期刊論文
Berkhout, Frans, Adrian Smith and Andy Stirling, “Socio-Technological Regimes and Transition Contexts”, System Innovation and The Transition to Sustainability: Theory, Evidence and Policy, (2004), pp.48-75.
Bosman, Rick, Derk Loorbach, Niki Frantzeskaki and Till Pistorius, “Discursive Regime Dynamics in The Dutch Energy Transition”, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, (2014), pp.45-59.
Bull, Stanley R., “Renewable Energy Today and Tomorrow”, Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 89, no. 8, (2001), pp.1216-1229.
Gales, Ben, Astrid Kander, Paolo Malanima and Mar Rubio, “North Versus South: Energy Transition and Energy Intensity in Europe over 200 Years”, European Review of Economic History, Vol. 11, no. 2 (2007), pp.219-253.
Geels, Frank W., “The Multi-Level Perspective on Sustainability Transitions: Responses to Seven Criticisms”, Environmental innovation and societal transitions, Vol. 1, no. 1, (2011), pp.29-33.
Kemp, René and Derk Loorbach, “Dutch Policies to Manage the Transition to Sustainable Energy”, Metropolis Verlag, no. 4 (2005), pp.123-151.
Kern, Florian, and Adrian Smith, “Restructuring Energy Systems for Sustainability? Energy Transition Policy in the Netherlands”, Energy Policy, Vol. 36, no. 11 (2008), pp.4093-103.
Laes, Erik, Leen Gorissen, and Frank Nevens, “A Comparison of Energy Transition Governance in Germany, The Netherlands and the United Kingdom”, Sustainability, Vol. 6, (2014), pp.1129-1152.
Loorbach, Derk, Rutger Van Der Brugge, and Mattijs Taanman, “Governance in The Energy Transition: Practice of Transition Management in The Netherlands”, International Journal of Environmental Technology and Management, Vol. 9, No. 2-3 (2008), pp.294-315.
Meadowcroft, James, “What About the Politics? Sustainable Development, Transition Management, and Long Term Energy Transitions”, Policy sciences, Vol. 42, no. 4 (2009), pp.323-40.
Rotmans, Jan, René Kemp, and Marjolein Van Asselt, “More Evolution Than Revolution: Transition Management in Public Policy”, Foresight, Vol. 3, no. 1 (2001), pp.15-31.
Smith, Adrian, Andy Starling, and Frans Berkhout, “The Governance of Sustainable Socio-Technical Transitions”, Research Policy, Vol. 34, no. 10 (2005), pp.1491-1510.
Turner, John A., “A Realizable Renewable Energy Future”, Science, Vol. 285, no. 5428 (1999), pp.687-689.
Verbong, Geert and Frank Geels, “The Ongoing Energy Transition: Lessons from a Socio-Technical, Multi-Level Analysis of the Dutch Electricity System (1960–2004)”, Energy Policy, Vol. 35, no. 2 (2007), pp.1025-37.
Yergins, Daniel, “Ensuring Energy Security”, Foreign Affairs (2006), pp.69-82.

(四). 會議論文
Kemp, René, and Derk Loorbach, “Governance for Sustainability through Transition Management”, Paper presented at the Open Meeting of Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community, Montreal, Canada, (2003)

(五). 網路資料
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McCrone, Angus, Eric Usher, Virginia Sonntag-O’ Brien, Ulf Moslener and Christine Grüning, “Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2014”, Frankfurt School-UNEP Collaborating Centre, The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), available at http://www.unep.org/pdf/Green_energy_2013-Key_findings.pdf. (最後檢視2016/06/17)
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Popławski, Konrad, “The European Commission will scrutinise the German system of renewable energy subsidies”, The Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), available at http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2013-01-30/european-commission-will-scrutinise-german-system-renewable-energy (最後檢視2016/06/18)
Rühl, Christof, “Energy in 2011 – Disruptions and Continuity”, IAEE, available at https://www.iaee.org/en/publications/newsletterdl.aspx?id=178 (最後檢視2016/05/18)
Sawin, Janet L., “Renewables 2013: Global Status Report”, Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century(REN21), available at http://www.ren21.net/portals/0/documents/resources/gsr/2013/gsr2013_lowres.pdf, pp.40-43. (最後檢視2016/06/17)
Watkins, Eric, “Oil, gas provide 90% of Japan’s electricity”, available at https://oildiplomacy.wordpress.com/2012/06/05/nuclear-oil-gas-provide-90-of-japans-electricity/ (最後檢視2016/06/17)
“2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report”, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, (2015), available at http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/64283.pdf (最後檢視2016/07/27)
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