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題名 天氣對保險購買行為之影響分析
Analysis of Weather Effect in Behavioral Insurance作者 古乙辰
Ku, Yi-Chen貢獻者 彭金隆
Peng, Jin-Lung
古乙辰
Ku, Yi-Chen關鍵詞 天氣效應
日照時數
行為保險
情緒變數
weather effect
sunshine effect
behavioral insurance
mood日期 2020 上傳時間 3-Aug-2020 17:41:09 (UTC+8) 摘要 行為財務學主張天氣對於投資人情緒與風險判斷有顯著影響，天氣會影響消費者的心情與情緒，進而影響消費者對風險的偏好與判斷，根據文獻指出晴朗的天氣與樂觀的情緒有關，會使消費者增加對風險的偏好，此即「陽光效應」。本文主要探討保險是否也會受到天氣影響而產生天氣效應，天氣是否影響要保人情緒，進而影響風險偏好而反映在保障額度的選擇上，以驗證陽光效應是否一樣存在與於保險消費行為中。本文以回歸模型檢定某壽險公司實際投保2015-2019年間的傷害保險資料，分析保戶投保金額與天氣因子之間的關係。行為財務文獻發現天氣越好，導致越樂觀也越積極投資的「陽光效應」，但實證結果顯示保險交易中，則存在天氣越不好，導致情緒低落風險意識提高投保更高保險金額的行為。由於陽光此時與保險金額之間為反向關係，為避免混淆，本文將此陽光對保險金額之影響稱為「烏雲效應」。同時文中也將天氣資料進行分群並連結至要保人的情緒，分別探討在該情境下要保人對於陽光以及其他不同天氣因子的反應。根據本文的實證結果，未來保險公司在銷售商品時，建議可以針對不同的情境來因應消費者不同的情緒，並根據陽光及其他天氣因子的差異來調整行銷策略。
Articles in behavioral finance state that weather has a significant impact on investors’ sentiment and risk judgment, and that nice weather is related to optimistic sentiment. Motivated by weather effect in behavioral finance, we examined the relationship between sunshine and the insurance amount purchased by policy holder.We used the ordinary least squares regression to analyze the impact of weather on the insured`s risk preference, as well as the role of sunlight effect in insurance. The data is from one of the top five life insurance companies, from 2015 to 2019. Compared to sunshine effect in behavioral finance, sunshine has an inverse relationship with the insurance amount. In order to avoid confusion, we refer to the effect of sunshine on the insurance amount as "cloud effect". Results showed that cloud effect existed in some circumstances such as the weather that made people feel down or bright. We also grouped the weather data and linked to the mood of the policy holders, to conduct further discussion of cloud effect and mood effect.According to the empirical results of this article, we suggest that insurance companies can respond to different emotions of consumers according to different weather situations, and adjust marketing strategies based on sunshine or cloud and other weather factors.參考文獻 一、中文部分王韻怡、池祥萱、周冠男 (2016)。行為財務學文獻回顧與展望：台灣市場之研究。經濟論文叢刊，44(1)，1-55。周賓凰、池祥萱、周冠男、龔怡霖（2019）。行為財務學：文獻回顧與展望。證券市場發展季刊，14(2)，1-47。郭敏華、李謙(2005)。陽光影響投資情緒?以臺灣股票市場為例。臺灣金融財務季刊，6(2)，35-51。曾郁仁、王儷玲、何素蘭（1999）。風險趨避程度增加對市場保險與自我保險的需求分析。風險管理學報，1(2)，53-64。二、英文部分Bagozzi, P., Gopinath, M. & Nyer, U., (1999), “The role of emotions in marketing”, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 27(2), 184‐206.Bassi, A., Colacito, R., & Fulghieri, P., (2013), “’O sole mio: An experimental analysis of weather and risk attitudes in financial decisions”, Review of Financial Studies, 26(7), 1824-1852.Bless, H., Clore, L., Schwarz, N., Golisano, V., Rabe, C., & Wolk, M., (1996), “Mood and the use of scripts: Does a happy mood really lead to mindlessness?”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 665-679.Brown, G., & Cliff, M., (2004), “Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(1), 1-27.Brown, G., & Cliff, M., (2005), “Investor sentiment and asset valuation”, Journal of Business, 78(2), 405-440.Cao, M. & Wei, J., (2001), Stock Market Returns: A Temperature Anomaly, Working paper, University of Toronto.Clore, G., & Parrott, W., (1991), In Emotion and social judgments. Ed. J. P. Forgas. Oxford: Pergamon Press.Croson, R., & Sundali, J., (2005), “The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 30, 195-209.Goetzmann, W., & Zhu, N., (2005), “Rain or shine: Where is the weather effect?”, European Financial Management, 11(5), 559-578.Goetzmann, W., Kim, D., Kumar, A., & Wang, Q., (2015), “Weather-induced mood, institutional investors, and stock returns”, Review of Financial Studies, 28(1), 73-111Hirshleifer, D., (2001), “Investor psychology and asset pricing”, Journal of Finance, 56 (4), 1533-1598.Hirshleifer, D., & Shumway, T., (2003), “Good day sunshine: Stock returns and the weather”, Journal of Finance, 55 (3), 1009-1032.Kamstra, J., Kramer, A., & Levi, D., (2003), “Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle”, American Economic Review, 93 (1), 324-343.Kamstra, J., Kramer, A., & Levi, D., (2000), “Losing sleep at the market: the daylight-savings anomaly”, American Economic Review, 90 (4), 1000-1005.Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A., (1979), “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk”, Econometrica, 47, 263-291.Leinweber, J., (2007), “Stupid Data Miner Tricks: Overfitting the S&P 500”, Journal of Investing, 16, 15-22.Levy, O., & Galili, I., (2008), “Stock purchase and the weather: individual differences”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 67(3), 755-767Loughran, T., & Schultz, P., (2004), “Weather, stock returns, and the impact of localized trading behavior”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39, 343-364.Rind, B., (1996), “Effects of beliefs about weather conditions on tipping”, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 26, 137-147.Rosenthal, D., (2005), Consciousness and mind. Oxford University Press.Sanders, L., & Brizzolara, S., (1982), “Relationships between weather and mood”, Journal of General Psychology, 107, 155-171.Saunders, L., (1993), “Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather”, The American Economic Review, 83(5), 1337-1345.Schwarz, N., & Clore, L., (1983), “Mood, misattribution, and judgments of well-being: Informative and directive functions of affective states”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 513-536.Thaler, R., (1985), “Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice”, Journal of Marketing Science, 4, 199-214.Wilson, T., & Schooler, J., (1991), “Thinking too much: Introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decision”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60, 181-192.Yuan, K., Zheng, L., & Zhu, Q., (2006), “Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 13, 1-23. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
風險管理與保險學系
107358006資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107358006 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 彭金隆 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Peng, Jin-Lung en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 古乙辰 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Ku, Yi-Chen en_US dc.creator (作者) 古乙辰 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Ku, Yi-Chen en_US dc.date (日期) 2020 en_US dc.date.accessioned 3-Aug-2020 17:41:09 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 3-Aug-2020 17:41:09 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Aug-2020 17:41:09 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107358006 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131005 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 風險管理與保險學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 107358006 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 行為財務學主張天氣對於投資人情緒與風險判斷有顯著影響，天氣會影響消費者的心情與情緒，進而影響消費者對風險的偏好與判斷，根據文獻指出晴朗的天氣與樂觀的情緒有關，會使消費者增加對風險的偏好，此即「陽光效應」。本文主要探討保險是否也會受到天氣影響而產生天氣效應，天氣是否影響要保人情緒，進而影響風險偏好而反映在保障額度的選擇上，以驗證陽光效應是否一樣存在與於保險消費行為中。本文以回歸模型檢定某壽險公司實際投保2015-2019年間的傷害保險資料，分析保戶投保金額與天氣因子之間的關係。行為財務文獻發現天氣越好，導致越樂觀也越積極投資的「陽光效應」，但實證結果顯示保險交易中，則存在天氣越不好，導致情緒低落風險意識提高投保更高保險金額的行為。由於陽光此時與保險金額之間為反向關係，為避免混淆，本文將此陽光對保險金額之影響稱為「烏雲效應」。同時文中也將天氣資料進行分群並連結至要保人的情緒，分別探討在該情境下要保人對於陽光以及其他不同天氣因子的反應。根據本文的實證結果，未來保險公司在銷售商品時，建議可以針對不同的情境來因應消費者不同的情緒，並根據陽光及其他天氣因子的差異來調整行銷策略。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Articles in behavioral finance state that weather has a significant impact on investors’ sentiment and risk judgment, and that nice weather is related to optimistic sentiment. Motivated by weather effect in behavioral finance, we examined the relationship between sunshine and the insurance amount purchased by policy holder.We used the ordinary least squares regression to analyze the impact of weather on the insured`s risk preference, as well as the role of sunlight effect in insurance. The data is from one of the top five life insurance companies, from 2015 to 2019. Compared to sunshine effect in behavioral finance, sunshine has an inverse relationship with the insurance amount. In order to avoid confusion, we refer to the effect of sunshine on the insurance amount as "cloud effect". Results showed that cloud effect existed in some circumstances such as the weather that made people feel down or bright. We also grouped the weather data and linked to the mood of the policy holders, to conduct further discussion of cloud effect and mood effect.According to the empirical results of this article, we suggest that insurance companies can respond to different emotions of consumers according to different weather situations, and adjust marketing strategies based on sunshine or cloud and other weather factors. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第二節 研究目的 3第二章 文獻探討 4第一節 心情與風險判斷的關係 4第二節 天氣與心情的關係 5第三節 天氣、心情與風險判斷的關係 6第四節 天氣對保險行為的影響 7第三章 研究設計 9第一節 資料蒐集 9第二節 天氣與保險金額實證模型 10第三節 天氣類型對保險購買之驗證 14第四節 樂觀與悲觀情緒對保險金額影響 15第四章 實證結果 17第一節 天氣與保險金額實證模型結果 17第二節 天氣類型分類之檢定結果 24第三節 情緒變數與保險金額實證模型 31第四節 實證結果統整 36第五章 結論與建議 37第一節 研究結論 37第二節 建議 39參考文獻 41附錄 45 zh_TW dc.format.extent 746593 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107358006 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 天氣效應 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 日照時數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 行為保險 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 情緒變數 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) weather effect en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) sunshine effect en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) behavioral insurance en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) mood en_US dc.title (題名) 天氣對保險購買行為之影響分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Analysis of Weather Effect in Behavioral Insurance en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分王韻怡、池祥萱、周冠男 (2016)。行為財務學文獻回顧與展望：台灣市場之研究。經濟論文叢刊，44(1)，1-55。周賓凰、池祥萱、周冠男、龔怡霖（2019）。行為財務學：文獻回顧與展望。證券市場發展季刊，14(2)，1-47。郭敏華、李謙(2005)。陽光影響投資情緒?以臺灣股票市場為例。臺灣金融財務季刊，6(2)，35-51。曾郁仁、王儷玲、何素蘭（1999）。風險趨避程度增加對市場保險與自我保險的需求分析。風險管理學報，1(2)，53-64。二、英文部分Bagozzi, P., Gopinath, M. & Nyer, U., (1999), “The role of emotions in marketing”, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 27(2), 184‐206.Bassi, A., Colacito, R., & Fulghieri, P., (2013), “’O sole mio: An experimental analysis of weather and risk attitudes in financial decisions”, Review of Financial Studies, 26(7), 1824-1852.Bless, H., Clore, L., Schwarz, N., Golisano, V., Rabe, C., & Wolk, M., (1996), “Mood and the use of scripts: Does a happy mood really lead to mindlessness?”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 665-679.Brown, G., & Cliff, M., (2004), “Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 11(1), 1-27.Brown, G., & Cliff, M., (2005), “Investor sentiment and asset valuation”, Journal of Business, 78(2), 405-440.Cao, M. & Wei, J., (2001), Stock Market Returns: A Temperature Anomaly, Working paper, University of Toronto.Clore, G., & Parrott, W., (1991), In Emotion and social judgments. Ed. J. P. Forgas. Oxford: Pergamon Press.Croson, R., & Sundali, J., (2005), “The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos”, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 30, 195-209.Goetzmann, W., & Zhu, N., (2005), “Rain or shine: Where is the weather effect?”, European Financial Management, 11(5), 559-578.Goetzmann, W., Kim, D., Kumar, A., & Wang, Q., (2015), “Weather-induced mood, institutional investors, and stock returns”, Review of Financial Studies, 28(1), 73-111Hirshleifer, D., (2001), “Investor psychology and asset pricing”, Journal of Finance, 56 (4), 1533-1598.Hirshleifer, D., & Shumway, T., (2003), “Good day sunshine: Stock returns and the weather”, Journal of Finance, 55 (3), 1009-1032.Kamstra, J., Kramer, A., & Levi, D., (2003), “Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle”, American Economic Review, 93 (1), 324-343.Kamstra, J., Kramer, A., & Levi, D., (2000), “Losing sleep at the market: the daylight-savings anomaly”, American Economic Review, 90 (4), 1000-1005.Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A., (1979), “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk”, Econometrica, 47, 263-291.Leinweber, J., (2007), “Stupid Data Miner Tricks: Overfitting the S&P 500”, Journal of Investing, 16, 15-22.Levy, O., & Galili, I., (2008), “Stock purchase and the weather: individual differences”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 67(3), 755-767Loughran, T., & Schultz, P., (2004), “Weather, stock returns, and the impact of localized trading behavior”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 39, 343-364.Rind, B., (1996), “Effects of beliefs about weather conditions on tipping”, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 26, 137-147.Rosenthal, D., (2005), Consciousness and mind. Oxford University Press.Sanders, L., & Brizzolara, S., (1982), “Relationships between weather and mood”, Journal of General Psychology, 107, 155-171.Saunders, L., (1993), “Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather”, The American Economic Review, 83(5), 1337-1345.Schwarz, N., & Clore, L., (1983), “Mood, misattribution, and judgments of well-being: Informative and directive functions of affective states”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45, 513-536.Thaler, R., (1985), “Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice”, Journal of Marketing Science, 4, 199-214.Wilson, T., & Schooler, J., (1991), “Thinking too much: Introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decision”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 60, 181-192.Yuan, K., Zheng, L., & Zhu, Q., (2006), “Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns”, Journal of Empirical Finance, 13, 1-23. zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202000876 en_US
