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題名 以責任分擔的公平原則評析巴黎協定的全球氣候承諾
Examining Paris Commitments with Equity Principles in the context of Burden Sharing Framework作者 郭依潔
Kuo, I-Chieh貢獻者 李河清
Lee, Ho-Ching
郭依潔
Kuo, I-Chieh關鍵詞 巴黎協定
公平原則
國家自主減量貢獻
氣候變化
國際合作
責任分擔
Paris Agreement
equity principles
Nationally Determined Contributions
climate change
international cooperation
burden-sharing日期 2020 上傳時間 2-Sep-2020 13:00:04 (UTC+8) 摘要 2015年巴黎協定的通過是國際氣候合作的重大突破。然而，協定給予各國對於減緩程度的自由裁量權卻也引起了責任分擔的公平性疑慮，同時也增加了各國作出進一步的減量承諾的合作障礙。本論文主要利用主成份分析和集群分析方法，以過去氣候談判中有關公平原則的基本主張—責任、能力、平等和發展權—為分類依據，依減緩義務程度將國家重新分群，以此作為評估各國國家自主減量貢獻的基準。接著，再利用複迴歸分析方法檢驗公平性指標對於各國減緩目標的影響，從而解析當前世界各國對於巴黎協定的合作態度。本研究希望能為解決巴黎協定目標與現實排放之間的差距提供一個初步的解決方向，進而為國際氣候治理機制奠定良好的合作環境。
The adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 was a significant breakthrough in the global climate governance regime. However, the historic achievement of the negotiations came at the price of national discretion in determining the emission reduction levels, which raised fairness concerns in burden-sharing and became an obstacle for further commitments. The main purpose of the study was to include four fundamental propositions related to the equity principles in the international climate negotiations—responsibility, capacity, equality, and right to development—as the references for assessing countries’ mitigation pledges from the nationally determined contributions. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were employed to deconstruct the existing country group classifications and to re-classify countries to implement equivalent obligations. Subsequently, multiple regression analysis was performed to examine the influence of equity indicators on each country’s climate targets, thereby analyzing the attitude of countries around the world toward compliance with the Paris Agreement. This study was intended to propose a preliminary method to bridge the gap between the current emission levels and the permissible levels to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals and to provide a favorable environment for international cooperation on climate change.參考文獻 李河清（2004）知識社群與全球氣候談判。《問題與研究》43（6）：73-102。李河清（2014）從科技到政策: 氣候知識如何影響國際氣候談判。《科技社會人2》，林文源等編著，交通大學出版社。頁283-300。徐紅艷（2002）沃勒斯坦的世界體系論—要旨與評析。《合肥工業大學學報》社會科學版（2）：23。陳世榮（2015）。社會科學研究中的文字探勘應用：以文意為基礎的文件分類及其問題。《人文及社會科學集刊》27（4）：683-718。黃光國（1995）。主觀研究與客觀研究：多重典範的研究取向。在知識與行動：中華文化傳統的社會心理詮釋（第三章，頁91-103）。台北市：心理出版社。曾怡仁（2018）。馬克思主義。《國際關係理論入門》，包宗和、張登及主編，台北：五南出版社。劉坤鱧（2012）。中國的崛起與挑戰：世界體系理論視角的分析。《全球政治評論》40：115-136Andresen, S., & Agrawala, S. (2002). 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Journal of environmental management, 207, 341-354. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系
105253023資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1052530231 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 李河清 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lee, Ho-Ching en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 郭依潔 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Kuo, I-Chieh en_US dc.creator (作者) 郭依潔 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Kuo, I-Chieh en_US dc.date (日期) 2020 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Sep-2020 13:00:04 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Sep-2020 13:00:04 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Sep-2020 13:00:04 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G1052530231 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/131859 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 外交學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 105253023 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 2015年巴黎協定的通過是國際氣候合作的重大突破。然而，協定給予各國對於減緩程度的自由裁量權卻也引起了責任分擔的公平性疑慮，同時也增加了各國作出進一步的減量承諾的合作障礙。本論文主要利用主成份分析和集群分析方法，以過去氣候談判中有關公平原則的基本主張—責任、能力、平等和發展權—為分類依據，依減緩義務程度將國家重新分群，以此作為評估各國國家自主減量貢獻的基準。接著，再利用複迴歸分析方法檢驗公平性指標對於各國減緩目標的影響，從而解析當前世界各國對於巴黎協定的合作態度。本研究希望能為解決巴黎協定目標與現實排放之間的差距提供一個初步的解決方向，進而為國際氣候治理機制奠定良好的合作環境。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 was a significant breakthrough in the global climate governance regime. However, the historic achievement of the negotiations came at the price of national discretion in determining the emission reduction levels, which raised fairness concerns in burden-sharing and became an obstacle for further commitments. The main purpose of the study was to include four fundamental propositions related to the equity principles in the international climate negotiations—responsibility, capacity, equality, and right to development—as the references for assessing countries’ mitigation pledges from the nationally determined contributions. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were employed to deconstruct the existing country group classifications and to re-classify countries to implement equivalent obligations. Subsequently, multiple regression analysis was performed to examine the influence of equity indicators on each country’s climate targets, thereby analyzing the attitude of countries around the world toward compliance with the Paris Agreement. This study was intended to propose a preliminary method to bridge the gap between the current emission levels and the permissible levels to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goals and to provide a favorable environment for international cooperation on climate change. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機 1第二節 研究目的 5第二章 文獻檢閱 7第一節 全球氣候治理中的公平原則 7第二節 相關研究回顧 15第三章 研究設計 18第一節 研究途徑與架構 18第二節 操作性定義 20第三節 研究方法與分析工具 23第四節 研究對象與資料來源 26第五節 研究限制 29第四章 公平責任分擔的國家分類 30第一節 主成份分析 30第二節 集群分析 37第三節 小結 50第五章 巴黎協定下氣候承諾的公平性 53第一節 全球氣候承諾的公平性 53第二節 台灣氣候承諾的公平性 69第三節 小結 74第六章 結論 76第一節 主要研究發現 76第二節 台灣自定預期貢獻 80第三節 結語 82參考資料 84圖目錄圖1、研究架構圖 19圖2、公平性指標彼此之間的相關性 31圖3、主成份的組成因素 35圖4、主成份的累積變異解釋比例 36圖5、不同集群數目的平均側影係數 37圖6、集群分析結果的國家分布 38圖7、聚焦於其他集群的國家分布 39圖8、各集群與公平原則相關的特徵分布 40圖9、依收入程度區分的國家集群 46圖10、依地理位置區分的國家集群 47圖11、各集群中負擔強制減緩義務的成員 49圖12、各集群減緩能力與目標制定的摘要特徵 54圖13、集群六成員在前兩項主成份組成的平面分布圖 70圖14、與台灣條件最為相近的集群六成員 73表1、各項主成份的特徵值 36表2、公平原則與全球減緩目標的迴歸分析結果 60表3、集群一迴歸分析結果 62表4、集群二迴歸分析結果 64表5、集群三迴歸分析結果 65表6、集群五迴歸分析結果 67表7、集群六迴歸分析結果 68 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2431400 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1052530231 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 巴黎協定 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 公平原則 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國家自主減量貢獻 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 氣候變化 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際合作 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 責任分擔 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Paris Agreement en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) equity principles en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Nationally Determined Contributions en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) climate change en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) international cooperation en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) burden-sharing en_US dc.title (題名) 以責任分擔的公平原則評析巴黎協定的全球氣候承諾 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Examining Paris Commitments with Equity Principles in the context of Burden Sharing Framework en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 李河清（2004）知識社群與全球氣候談判。《問題與研究》43（6）：73-102。李河清（2014）從科技到政策: 氣候知識如何影響國際氣候談判。《科技社會人2》，林文源等編著，交通大學出版社。頁283-300。徐紅艷（2002）沃勒斯坦的世界體系論—要旨與評析。《合肥工業大學學報》社會科學版（2）：23。陳世榮（2015）。社會科學研究中的文字探勘應用：以文意為基礎的文件分類及其問題。《人文及社會科學集刊》27（4）：683-718。黃光國（1995）。主觀研究與客觀研究：多重典範的研究取向。在知識與行動：中華文化傳統的社會心理詮釋（第三章，頁91-103）。台北市：心理出版社。曾怡仁（2018）。馬克思主義。《國際關係理論入門》，包宗和、張登及主編，台北：五南出版社。劉坤鱧（2012）。中國的崛起與挑戰：世界體系理論視角的分析。《全球政治評論》40：115-136Andresen, S., & Agrawala, S. 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