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題名 房租管制政策對租金之影響-以德國租屋市場為例
Estimating the Impact of Rent Control on Rents: Germany’s Rental Housing Market as an Example
作者 毛栗子
Gomm, Moritz
貢獻者 林左裕<br>徐士勛
Lin, Tso-Yu Calvin<br>Hsu, Shih-Hsun
毛栗子
Gomm, Moritz
關鍵詞 房租管制政策
德國
差異中的差異
Rent control
German rental market
Difference-in-Difference (DiD)
Denton method
Akaike information criterion (AIC)
日期 2020
上傳時間 3-Nov-2020 11:31:37 (UTC+8)
摘要 Five years after the first cities in Germany implemented rent controls, this thesis estimates the effect of the policy on the changes in rents with a difference-in-difference (DiD) approach comparing city-level rents for newly-let apartments. For this purpose, panel data for 110 German cities for the 60 quarters between 2005 and 2019 is used. Because the panel data inhibits unit roots and is therefore non-stationary, the first difference (FD) of the logarithmized time-series for rents as well as quarter-on-quarter changes for socioeconomic time-series are used. In order to overcome that city-level data in Germany is only available on a yearly basis, quarterly data will be derived with the Denton method for smoothing or disaggregation. Results of the analysis suggest that contrary to public opinion, rent control had a statistically significant dampening effect on the development of rents in the first group of cities that implemented the policy. Nevertheless, a lack of new rental supply due to slow building activity vis-à-vis strong in-migration to larger cities remains the main factor for increasing rents. For policy implication, the lack of residential supply will have to be addressed and building activity in larger and more popular cities will have to be increased, if a lasting solution to rising rents wants to be found.
參考文獻 Alston, R. M., Kearl, J. R., & Vaughan, M. B. (1992). Is There a Consensus Among Economists in the 1990s? American Economic Review, 82, 203-9.
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2014). Mastering `Metrics : The Path from Cause to Effect. New Jersey, US: Princeton University Press.
Arnott, R. (1995). Time for revisionism on rent control? Journal of Economic Perspective, 1, 99-120.
Baum, C. F., & Hristakeva, S. (2001). Denton: Stata Module to Interpolate a Flow or Stock Series from Low-frequency Totals Via Proportional Denton Method. Statistical Software Components S422501.
Bienert, S. (2018). Guest Editorial. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 36(1), 2.
Bischoff, O., & Maennig, W. (2011). Rental Housing Market Segmentation in Germany According to Ownership. Journal of Property Research, 28(2), 133-149.
Bloem, A. D. (2001). Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation. IMF Working Paper.
Cajias, M., & Freudenreich, P. (2018). Exploring the Determinants of Liquidity with Big Data – Market Heterogeneity in German Markets. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 36(1), 3-18.
Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. American Economic Review, 84(4), 772-793.
Case, K. E., & Shiller, J. R. (1990). Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market. Journal of the American Real Estate & Urban Economics Association, 18(3), 253–273.
Collaboration in Research and Methodology for Official Statistics (CROS) European Comission. (2014). Macro Integration: Denton`s Method. Memobust Handbook on Methodology of Modern Business Statistics.
Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. (2020). Difference-in-Difference Estimation. Retrieved from Columbia Public Health: https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/research/population-health-methods/difference-difference-estimation
Denton, F. T. (1971). Adjustment of Monthly or Quarterly Series to Annual Totals: An Approach Based on Quadratic Minimization. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99-102.
Deschermeier, P., Haas, H., Hude, M., & Voigtlaender, M. (2016). A First Analysis of the New German Rent Regulation. International Journal of Housing Policy, 16(3), 293-315,.
Deschermeier, P., Seipelt, B., & Voigtländer, M. (2017, May). Evaluation der Mietpreisbremse. IW Policy Paper.
Deutsches Studentenwerk. (2018). Wohnen im Studium. Retrieved from https://www.studentenwerke.de/de/content/wohnen-im-studium#:~:text=Wohnheime%20werden%20bundesweit%20von%209,dem%20Partner%20oder%20der%20Partnerin.
Dewilde, C. (2018). Explaining the Declined Affordability of Housing for Low-income Private Renters Across Western Europe. Urban Studies, 55(12), 2618-2639.
Di Fonzo, T., & Marini, M. (2012). On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method. IMF Working Paper, 12(169).
Diamond, R., Qian, F., & McQuade, T. (2018). The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco. NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES, 24181.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.
DIW Berlin. (2018). Evaluierung der Mietpreisbremse: Enbericht.
Edmiston, K. D. (2016). Residential Rent Affordability across U.S. Metropolitan Areas. Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T. J., & Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root. Econometrica, 64(4), 813-836.
Empirica regio. (2020). Immobilienpreisindex: Mietpreise.
Fallis, G., & Smith, L. B. (1984). Uncontrolled Prices in a Controlled Market: The Case of Rent Controls. The American Economic Review, 74(1), 193-200.
Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development, Germany. (2019, Jul). Wohnungsleerstände nehmen in vielen ländlichen Räumen zu. Retrieved from https://www.bbsr.bund.de/BBSR/DE/WohnenImmobilien/Immobilienmarktbeobachtung/ProjekteFachbeitraege/Wohnungsleerstand/wohnungsleerstand.html.
Frehner, M. (2020, Apr 1). Mietpreisbremse einfach erklärt: Das gilt seit 2020. Retrieved from Deutsche Handwerks Zeitung: https://www.deutsche-handwerks-zeitung.de/uebersicht-zur-mietpreisbremse-was-sie-zum-thema-wissen-muessen/150/3093/365886
Goncalves Raposo, I. (2019, Jul 08). It`s Hard to Live in the City: Berlin’s Rent Freeze and the Economics of Rent Control. Retrieved from Bruegel: https://www.bruegel.org/2019/07/its-hard-to-live-in-the-city-berlins-rent-freeze-and-the-economics-of-rent-control/
Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
Grant, P., & Patnaude, A. (2017, Apr 04). Europe`s New Safe Haven: German Real Estate. Dow Jones Institutional News ; New York.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. (2020). Mietpreisbremse. Retrieved from KommunalWiki: http://kommunalwiki.boell.de/index.php/Mietpreisbremse
Henger, R., & Voigtländer, M. (2019, Jul 22). Ist der Wohnungsbau auf dem richtigen Weg? IW Report 28.
Hertrich, M. (2019). A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, 31.
Hiller, N., & Schultewolter, D. (2014). Quo vadis Wohnungspolitik? Wirtschaftsdienst, 94, 34-40.
Hoolachan, J., McKee, K., Moore, T., & Soaita, A. M. (2017). ‘Generation Rent’ and the Ability to ‘Settle Down’: Economic and Geographical Variation in Young People’s Housing Transitions. Journal of Youth Studies, 63-78.
Kaduszkiewicz, H., Teichert, U., & van den Bussche, H. (2018). Shortage of Physicians in Rural Areas and in the Public Health Service : A Critical Analysis of the Evidence on the Role of Medical Education and Training. Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz, 61(2), 187-194.
Kassenärztliche Bundesvereinigung. (2019). Regionale Verteilung der Ärzte in der vertragsärztlichen Versorgung. Retrieved from Gesundheitsdaten: https://gesundheitsdaten.kbv.de/cms/html/16402.php
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
107266014
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107266014
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 林左裕<br>徐士勛zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Tso-Yu Calvin<br>Hsu, Shih-Hsunen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 毛栗子zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Gomm, Moritzen_US
dc.creator (作者) 毛栗子zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Gomm, Moritzen_US
dc.date (日期) 2020en_US
dc.date.accessioned 3-Nov-2020 11:31:37 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 3-Nov-2020 11:31:37 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 3-Nov-2020 11:31:37 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0107266014en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/132461-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 107266014zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Five years after the first cities in Germany implemented rent controls, this thesis estimates the effect of the policy on the changes in rents with a difference-in-difference (DiD) approach comparing city-level rents for newly-let apartments. For this purpose, panel data for 110 German cities for the 60 quarters between 2005 and 2019 is used. Because the panel data inhibits unit roots and is therefore non-stationary, the first difference (FD) of the logarithmized time-series for rents as well as quarter-on-quarter changes for socioeconomic time-series are used. In order to overcome that city-level data in Germany is only available on a yearly basis, quarterly data will be derived with the Denton method for smoothing or disaggregation. Results of the analysis suggest that contrary to public opinion, rent control had a statistically significant dampening effect on the development of rents in the first group of cities that implemented the policy. Nevertheless, a lack of new rental supply due to slow building activity vis-à-vis strong in-migration to larger cities remains the main factor for increasing rents. For policy implication, the lack of residential supply will have to be addressed and building activity in larger and more popular cities will have to be increased, if a lasting solution to rising rents wants to be found.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Chapter 1: Introduction 1
Chapter 2: Literature Review 3
2.1 Germany’s Housing Market 3
2.1.1 A Short Historical Overview of the German Housing Market 3
2.1.2 Germany’s Rental Housing Market: Why Rents Matter 6
2.1.3 Recent Developments in Rents and Rent Affordability Between Cities 9
2.2 Rent Control 16
2.2.1 Germany’s Introduction of the Rent Brake (“Mietpreisbremse”) 16
2.2.2 Rent Controls: A General Literature Review 17
2.2.3 Evaluations of the German Rent Brake 19
2.2.4 A New Attempt: The “Rent Freeze” in Berlin Since 2020 22
2.3 The Role of New Rental Supply 23
Chapter 3: Data & Methodology 27
3.1 Data Sources 27
3.2 The Difference-in-Difference (DiD) approach 32
3.3 Unit Roots and Non-Stationarity: Moving from Absolutes to First Differences and Change Rates 38
3.4 Smoothing of Yearly Data to Quarterly Data with the Denton Method 41
3.5 Model Selection and Introduction of Lags 46
Chapter 4: Empirical Results 54
4.1 Final List of Variables 54
4.2 Econometrical Model and Estimated Effect of Covariates 55
4.3 The Estimated Treatment Effect of Rent Control 59
4.4 A Note on New Supply of Residential Rental Space 61
Chapter 5: Conclusion and Policy Implications 62
References 65		zh_TW
dc.format.extent 1989631 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107266014en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 房租管制政策zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 德國zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 差異中的差異zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Rent controlen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) German rental marketen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Difference-in-Difference (DiD)en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Denton methoden_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Akaike information criterion (AIC)en_US
dc.title (題名) 房租管制政策對租金之影響-以德國租屋市場為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Estimating the Impact of Rent Control on Rents: Germany’s Rental Housing Market as an Exampleen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alston, R. M., Kearl, J. R., & Vaughan, M. B. (1992). Is There a Consensus Among Economists in the 1990s? American Economic Review, 82, 203-9.
Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J.-S. (2014). Mastering `Metrics : The Path from Cause to Effect. New Jersey, US: Princeton University Press.
Arnott, R. (1995). Time for revisionism on rent control? Journal of Economic Perspective, 1, 99-120.
Baum, C. F., & Hristakeva, S. (2001). Denton: Stata Module to Interpolate a Flow or Stock Series from Low-frequency Totals Via Proportional Denton Method. Statistical Software Components S422501.
Bienert, S. (2018). Guest Editorial. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 36(1), 2.
Bischoff, O., & Maennig, W. (2011). Rental Housing Market Segmentation in Germany According to Ownership. Journal of Property Research, 28(2), 133-149.
Bloem, A. D. (2001). Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation. IMF Working Paper.
Cajias, M., & Freudenreich, P. (2018). Exploring the Determinants of Liquidity with Big Data – Market Heterogeneity in German Markets. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 36(1), 3-18.
Card, D., & Krueger, A. B. (1994). Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. American Economic Review, 84(4), 772-793.
Case, K. E., & Shiller, J. R. (1990). Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market. Journal of the American Real Estate & Urban Economics Association, 18(3), 253–273.
Collaboration in Research and Methodology for Official Statistics (CROS) European Comission. (2014). Macro Integration: Denton`s Method. Memobust Handbook on Methodology of Modern Business Statistics.
Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health. (2020). Difference-in-Difference Estimation. Retrieved from Columbia Public Health: https://www.publichealth.columbia.edu/research/population-health-methods/difference-difference-estimation
Denton, F. T. (1971). Adjustment of Monthly or Quarterly Series to Annual Totals: An Approach Based on Quadratic Minimization. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 99-102.
Deschermeier, P., Haas, H., Hude, M., & Voigtlaender, M. (2016). A First Analysis of the New German Rent Regulation. International Journal of Housing Policy, 16(3), 293-315,.
Deschermeier, P., Seipelt, B., & Voigtländer, M. (2017, May). Evaluation der Mietpreisbremse. IW Policy Paper.
Deutsches Studentenwerk. (2018). Wohnen im Studium. Retrieved from https://www.studentenwerke.de/de/content/wohnen-im-studium#:~:text=Wohnheime%20werden%20bundesweit%20von%209,dem%20Partner%20oder%20der%20Partnerin.
Dewilde, C. (2018). Explaining the Declined Affordability of Housing for Low-income Private Renters Across Western Europe. Urban Studies, 55(12), 2618-2639.
Di Fonzo, T., & Marini, M. (2012). On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method. IMF Working Paper, 12(169).
Diamond, R., Qian, F., & McQuade, T. (2018). The Effects of Rent Control Expansion on Tenants, Landlords, and Inequality: Evidence from San Francisco. NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES, 24181.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.
DIW Berlin. (2018). Evaluierung der Mietpreisbremse: Enbericht.
Edmiston, K. D. (2016). Residential Rent Affordability across U.S. Metropolitan Areas. Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T. J., & Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root. Econometrica, 64(4), 813-836.
Empirica regio. (2020). Immobilienpreisindex: Mietpreise.
Fallis, G., & Smith, L. B. (1984). Uncontrolled Prices in a Controlled Market: The Case of Rent Controls. The American Economic Review, 74(1), 193-200.
Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development, Germany. (2019, Jul). Wohnungsleerstände nehmen in vielen ländlichen Räumen zu. Retrieved from https://www.bbsr.bund.de/BBSR/DE/WohnenImmobilien/Immobilienmarktbeobachtung/ProjekteFachbeitraege/Wohnungsleerstand/wohnungsleerstand.html.
Frehner, M. (2020, Apr 1). Mietpreisbremse einfach erklärt: Das gilt seit 2020. Retrieved from Deutsche Handwerks Zeitung: https://www.deutsche-handwerks-zeitung.de/uebersicht-zur-mietpreisbremse-was-sie-zum-thema-wissen-muessen/150/3093/365886
Goncalves Raposo, I. (2019, Jul 08). It`s Hard to Live in the City: Berlin’s Rent Freeze and the Economics of Rent Control. Retrieved from Bruegel: https://www.bruegel.org/2019/07/its-hard-to-live-in-the-city-berlins-rent-freeze-and-the-economics-of-rent-control/
Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
Grant, P., & Patnaude, A. (2017, Apr 04). Europe`s New Safe Haven: German Real Estate. Dow Jones Institutional News ; New York.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. (2020). Mietpreisbremse. Retrieved from KommunalWiki: http://kommunalwiki.boell.de/index.php/Mietpreisbremse
Henger, R., & Voigtländer, M. (2019, Jul 22). Ist der Wohnungsbau auf dem richtigen Weg? IW Report 28.
Hertrich, M. (2019). A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, 31.
Hiller, N., & Schultewolter, D. (2014). Quo vadis Wohnungspolitik? Wirtschaftsdienst, 94, 34-40.
Hoolachan, J., McKee, K., Moore, T., & Soaita, A. M. (2017). ‘Generation Rent’ and the Ability to ‘Settle Down’: Economic and Geographical Variation in Young People’s Housing Transitions. Journal of Youth Studies, 63-78.
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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202001764en_US