| dc.contributor | 選舉研究 | - |
| dc.creator (作者) | 莊伯仲 | - |
| dc.creator (作者) | Chuang, Po-chung | - |
| dc.creator (作者) | 金志聿 | - |
| dc.creator (作者) | Chin, Chih-yu | - |
| dc.date (日期) | 2019-05 | - |
| dc.date.accessioned | 19-Nov-2020 11:43:18 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 19-Nov-2020 11:43:18 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 19-Nov-2020 11:43:18 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/132726 | - |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 隨著社群媒體融入吾人生活，成為粉絲、按讚這類網路行為已被證實與實體行動間存在關聯，因此透過候選人臉書的大數據來預測選舉結果，便成為新興研究主題。本文分析2016年區域立委選舉中354位候選人的粉絲專頁經營狀況，發現是否運用臉書與選舉勝敗有顯著關聯，實質經營者36.8%當選立委，無臉書或未實質經營者則僅1.2%。更重要的是，候選人的貼文按讚總數與得票數呈現低度正相關，註冊粉絲數與得票數更達中度正相關，因此兩者均可據以探討勝選關聯性。而本研究建構一初步模型「淨粉絲對比率」，整合候選人按讚數與粉絲數，並排除與同選區對手的無意義重疊粉絲和重複按讚，具有一定推估能力，對全國當選席位的預估準確率有81.5%（72席中59席），在六都更達87.9%（48席中42席）。而這也意味臉書選戰的重要性，以及專業經營的必要性。 | - |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | The adoption of social media in political marketing has grown dramatically over the past ten years, as it creates two-way communication that stimulates and fosters candidates` relationships with voters. However, can the count of ＂supporters＂ and ＂likes＂ recorded on the Facebook page of a candidate predict whether he/she will win the elections or not? In view of this, predicting an electoral outcome using ＂big＂ social media data is a new research topic that has emerged due to the exponential growth of social media. This study examines the extent to which political candidates` use of Facebook fan pages and interaction with their supporters are related to the election outcomes (vote share and election success) of Taiwan`s 2016 legislator election campaign. Facebook data were acquired for all 354 candidates. The findings indicate: a candidate`s Facebook presence is related to his/her election outcomes. Positive correlations were also observed to exist between the numbers of supporters/likes candidates secured on their official fan pages and their popular vote share. Moreover, the ＂net-fans ratio＂ preliminary model, based on a candidate`s likes/supporters and excluding those repeated with respective opponents, has an explanatory power to forecast regional legislators` election outcome with 81.5% accuracy of all the seats, and with 87.9% accuracy of the seats of 6 major municipalities. Hence, Facebook data could be a significant indicator of electoral success. | - |
| dc.format.extent | 1579319 bytes | - |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | - |
| dc.relation (關聯) | 選舉研究, 26(1), 89-121 | - |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 立委選舉 ; 社群媒體 ; 按讚 ; 臉書 ; 網路選戰 | - |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | legislator election ; social media ; Facebook likes ; fan page ; online campaign | - |
| dc.title (題名) | 候選人臉書經營和選舉結果之關聯分析：以2016年區域立法委員選舉為例 | - |
| dc.title (題名) | Taiwan 2016: How Political Candidates` Adoption of Facebook Fan Pages and Interaction with Supporters Relate to Election Outcomes | - |
| dc.type (資料類型) | article | - |
| dc.identifier.doi (DOI) | 10.6612/tjes.201905_26(1).0004 | - |
| dc.doi.uri (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.201905_26(1).0004 | - |
