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題名 生育率變遷對臺灣人口年齡結構與家庭組成的影響
The Effects of Fertility Decline on Age Structure and Family Configuration in Taiwan作者 楊琇宇
Yang, Hsiu-Yu貢獻者 陳信木
Chen, Hsin-Mu
楊琇宇
Yang, Hsiu-Yu關鍵詞 生育率變遷
穩定人口
胎次模擬
家庭構成
步調效果
Fertility Decline
Stable Population
Parity Simulation
Family Configuration
Tempo Effect日期 2020 上傳時間 1-Feb-2021 14:19:15 (UTC+8) 摘要 本文以臺灣過去70多年來的生育率變遷為背景，援引形式人口學模擬工具，試圖描繪出劇烈生育率變遷帶來的鉅觀與微觀影響。質言之，本文首先以Lotka「穩定人口理論」描繪過去臺灣歷年生育率對臺灣年齡結構、人口加倍時間、淨繁殖率等帶來的影響，屬於鉅觀角度的分析。接著，本文再以「胎次模擬」途徑呈現臺灣育齡女性歷年的時期生育資訊，包含胎次分佈、胎次別年齡別生育率等，並據此延伸至「原生核心家庭」結構比重的探討。最後，本文也檢視所用來模擬的基礎資料——時期生育率的限制，探討生育率的步調效果，並強調觀察年輪生育率的重要性。同時指出過去30年生育率逐年下滑，似乎已與步調推遲無關，生育率止跌回升的可能性並不大。
This study examines the effects of fertility decline in the past 70 years on both population structure and family configuration in Taiwan. Two demographic models are applied in the study: Lotka’s stable population model and the parity simulation model. The author applies the stable population model to explore the impact of fertility change on the macro level of population, where age composition, population growth rate, and net reproduction rate of a stable population are demonstrated. Then, parity simulation model is applied to assess the parity distribution and the period age-parity specific fertility rate in Taiwan. The change of family configuration due to fertility change is also discussed in this study. 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國立政治大學
社會學系
108254003資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108254003 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 陳信木 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Chen, Hsin-Mu en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 楊琇宇 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Yang, Hsiu-Yu en_US dc.creator (作者) 楊琇宇 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Yang, Hsiu-Yu en_US dc.date (日期) 2020 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Feb-2021 14:19:15 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Feb-2021 14:19:15 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Feb-2021 14:19:15 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108254003 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/133929 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 社會學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 108254003 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文以臺灣過去70多年來的生育率變遷為背景，援引形式人口學模擬工具，試圖描繪出劇烈生育率變遷帶來的鉅觀與微觀影響。質言之，本文首先以Lotka「穩定人口理論」描繪過去臺灣歷年生育率對臺灣年齡結構、人口加倍時間、淨繁殖率等帶來的影響，屬於鉅觀角度的分析。接著，本文再以「胎次模擬」途徑呈現臺灣育齡女性歷年的時期生育資訊，包含胎次分佈、胎次別年齡別生育率等，並據此延伸至「原生核心家庭」結構比重的探討。最後，本文也檢視所用來模擬的基礎資料——時期生育率的限制，探討生育率的步調效果，並強調觀察年輪生育率的重要性。同時指出過去30年生育率逐年下滑，似乎已與步調推遲無關，生育率止跌回升的可能性並不大。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) This study examines the effects of fertility decline in the past 70 years on both population structure and family configuration in Taiwan. Two demographic models are applied in the study: Lotka’s stable population model and the parity simulation model. The author applies the stable population model to explore the impact of fertility change on the macro level of population, where age composition, population growth rate, and net reproduction rate of a stable population are demonstrated. Then, parity simulation model is applied to assess the parity distribution and the period age-parity specific fertility rate in Taiwan. The change of family configuration due to fertility change is also discussed in this study. Lastly, the author examines the tempo effect of fertility change in the past 3 decades and concludes that the fertility rate in Taiwan is unlikely to recover to its former level. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 圖次 v表次 vii第一章、緒論 1第二章、生育率變遷的鉅觀效應 3第一節、生育作為人口動力 3第二節、Lotka穩定人口模型 10第三節、從穩定人口看臺灣生育變遷 14第三章、生育率變遷的微觀影響 27第一節、社會學的想像：女性生育經驗變遷 27第二節、母親的來時路：胎次模擬途徑 37第三節、幸福的家庭一個樣？——生育率對原生核心家庭的影響 45第四章、迎頭趕上或時機已過？——生育率的步調效果 57第一節、以CFR調整TFR 58第二節、以生育步調調整TFR（tempo-adjusted TFR） 62第三節、時候未到？——以年輪看生育率回升可能性 66第五章、生育轉型對於家戶結構影響的新課題 73第一節、減少中的婚姻關係 73第二節、手足研究焦點：數量至關重要 77第三節、本是同根生：老化社會中手足的重要性 79參考文獻 87附錄一、穩定人口相關統計值說明 93附錄二、胎次機率分佈計算說明 99附錄三、家庭特性機率分佈計算結果 103附錄四、臺灣生育及人口增加相關統計值 109附錄五、調整生育率計算結果 121 zh_TW dc.format.extent 7979796 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108254003 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 生育率變遷 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 穩定人口 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 胎次模擬 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 家庭構成 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 步調效果 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Fertility Decline en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Stable Population en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Parity Simulation en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Family Configuration en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tempo Effect en_US dc.title (題名) 生育率變遷對臺灣人口年齡結構與家庭組成的影響 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Effects of Fertility Decline on Age Structure and Family Configuration in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 王德睦、董宜禎（2014）。〈年輪生育率分佈對時期生育率的影響〉，《人口學刊》48：1-41。行政院（2019）。《我國少子女化對策計畫（107年－111年）核定本》。呂思嫺（2015）。〈女性障礙者的生育經驗與母職實踐〉。《社區發展季刊》150:234-241。李美玲（1990）。〈台灣地區婦女的生育步調與生育轉型〉。《人口學刊》13:145-166。徐良熙、林忠正（1989）。〈家庭結構及社會變遷的再研究〉，收錄於伊慶春、朱瑞玲主編《台灣社會現象的分析》，頁25-55。台北：中央研究院。國發會（2018）。《中華民國人口推估（2018至2065年）》。張喻婷（2005）。〈臺灣家庭世代共存結構變遷〉。台北市：國立政治大學社會學研究所碩士論文。莊媁涵（2018）。〈女性初婚時程的世代變遷〉。台北市：國立政治大學社會學系碩士論文。郭蕙如（2007）。〈媽媽們的故事：女性之育女養兒經驗變遷〉。台北市：國立政治大學社會學研究所碩士論文。陳信木、吳怡銘（2019）。〈我國邁向超高齡社會之人口與家戶結構變遷及其政策意涵〉。《國土與公共治理季刊》7(1):6-23。陳信木、林佳瑩（2010）。〈臺灣生育率變遷對於人口成長的慣性作用〉。《人口學刊》40:1-39。陳信木、林佳瑩、胡力中（2008）。〈遲育還是少育？——臺灣未來年輪生育率之預測〉。臺灣人口學年會2008年年會「少子女化與高齡化社會的人口挑戰——人口政策與人口發展課題」 。陳信木、陳玉華、胡力中（2020）。《我國區域層級家戶推計模擬》。台北：國家發展委員會委託研究案。陳肇男、孫得雄、李棟明（2003）。《台灣的人口奇蹟—家庭計畫政策成功探源》。台北市：聯經。馮漢昌、郭溫慈（2017）。〈少子女化對國民基本教育的影響〉。《主計月刊》741:28-33。楊靜利、陳寬政、李大正（2012）。〈近二十年來的家庭結構變遷〉，收錄於伊慶春、章英華主編《台灣的社會變遷1985~2005：家庭與婚姻，台灣社會變遷基本調查系列三之1》，頁1-28。台北：中央研究院。劉一龍、王德睦（2004）。〈臺灣地區總生育率的分析：完成生育率與生育步調之變化〉，臺灣人口學會2004年年會暨「人口、家庭與國民健康政策回顧與展望」研討會。蔡和穎（2011年4月7日）。〈台歷年生育標語 一窺時代氛圍〉。《大紀元》。取自：https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/11/4/7/n3221216.htm鄭清霞（2009）。〈台灣經濟家戶組成與特性的變遷－1976 年至2004 年〉。《臺灣社會福利學刊》7(2):47-100。薛承泰（2002）。〈一九九〇年代台灣地區單人戶的特性—兼論老人單人戶之貧窮〉。《人口學刊》25:57-89。Baranowska-Rataj, A., De Luna, X., & Ivarsson, A. 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