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題名 川普時期美中在西太平洋權力移轉之研究
Transition of Power between U.S.A. and P.R.C. within Trump’s Presidency in Western Pacific
作者 謝英傑
Hsieh, Ying-Chie
貢獻者 盧業中
Lu, Yeh-Chung
謝英傑
Hsieh, Ying-Chie
關鍵詞 權力移轉
川普
印太戰略
日期 2021
上傳時間 2-Mar-2021 14:50:18 (UTC+8)
摘要 2017年川政府提倡開放與自由的印太區域,執政4年期間於印太區域作為積極,由2017年起的國家戰略報告,國防戰略報告到專屬印太區域的印太戰略報告,均充分顯示延續過去對西太平洋地區的重視,並在川普時期將範圍涵蓋到印度洋與太平洋兩洋海域。然而川普並非首任美國元首展現對西太平洋區域的重視,自歐巴馬政府以已展現對亞太區域的重視,重返亞太與亞太再平衡政策均展現出美國對中共歷經戰略機遇期後逐步成長的綜合國力表示關切,並持續透過政策圍堵與防範中共的崛起影響美國自二戰以來建立的霸權地位。
中共身為區域崛起強權,自二戰以來受惠於美國身為世界霸權維護全球公域,與國際規範使全球貿易再世界經濟發展上逐步成長,中共在此過程中為重要的受益一方。同時中共透過推展帶路倡議,企圖將歐亞非三大版塊經濟體分透過海上與陸上絲綢之路達到此一戰略目標。面對逐步增加的海外邊境利益,以軍事力量的投射保護利益邊境為中共建軍重要方向。面對解放軍透過遠海常航、軍事現代化,聯合國維和任務與反海盜支隊的執行下,解放軍海軍與空軍能力逐步增加,除具備保護利益邊境之能力,該能力輔以飛彈與太空軍事支援能量可轉用於維護島鏈內主權爭議部分。
本研究意圖在藉由權力移轉理論為研究途徑,進一步探討中美兩國在西太平洋地區的軍事實力,檢視經由川普執政期間「印太戰略」政策與中共「近海防禦,遠海護衛」方針,於區域間政策互動情形;同時藉由區域經濟整合面向檢視印太戰略經濟合作框架與中共帶路倡議的政策互動與成效,檢證區域間國家戰略選擇傾向。除上述軍事與經濟考量外,本研界將中共主權核心利益牽涉底線思維的模式實施分析。綜合上述列舉因素分析,探討中美之間發生權力移轉的可能性與發生的形式為何,作為中美兩國與區域國家戰略情勢評估之參考。
參考文獻 參考資料
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(二) 專書及專書篇章
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“Philippines extends termination process of U.S. troop deal, eyes long-term defence pact, "Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-defence-idUSKBN27R0RD (24th Aug. 2020).

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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班
108922004
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108922004
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 盧業中zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Lu, Yeh-Chungen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 謝英傑zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Hsieh, Ying-Chieen_US
dc.creator (作者) 謝英傑zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Hsieh, Ying-Chieen_US
dc.date (日期) 2021en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2-Mar-2021 14:50:18 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 2-Mar-2021 14:50:18 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Mar-2021 14:50:18 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108922004en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/134176-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 108922004zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 2017年川政府提倡開放與自由的印太區域,執政4年期間於印太區域作為積極,由2017年起的國家戰略報告,國防戰略報告到專屬印太區域的印太戰略報告,均充分顯示延續過去對西太平洋地區的重視,並在川普時期將範圍涵蓋到印度洋與太平洋兩洋海域。然而川普並非首任美國元首展現對西太平洋區域的重視,自歐巴馬政府以已展現對亞太區域的重視,重返亞太與亞太再平衡政策均展現出美國對中共歷經戰略機遇期後逐步成長的綜合國力表示關切,並持續透過政策圍堵與防範中共的崛起影響美國自二戰以來建立的霸權地位。
中共身為區域崛起強權,自二戰以來受惠於美國身為世界霸權維護全球公域,與國際規範使全球貿易再世界經濟發展上逐步成長,中共在此過程中為重要的受益一方。同時中共透過推展帶路倡議,企圖將歐亞非三大版塊經濟體分透過海上與陸上絲綢之路達到此一戰略目標。面對逐步增加的海外邊境利益,以軍事力量的投射保護利益邊境為中共建軍重要方向。面對解放軍透過遠海常航、軍事現代化,聯合國維和任務與反海盜支隊的執行下,解放軍海軍與空軍能力逐步增加,除具備保護利益邊境之能力,該能力輔以飛彈與太空軍事支援能量可轉用於維護島鏈內主權爭議部分。
本研究意圖在藉由權力移轉理論為研究途徑,進一步探討中美兩國在西太平洋地區的軍事實力,檢視經由川普執政期間「印太戰略」政策與中共「近海防禦,遠海護衛」方針,於區域間政策互動情形;同時藉由區域經濟整合面向檢視印太戰略經濟合作框架與中共帶路倡議的政策互動與成效,檢證區域間國家戰略選擇傾向。除上述軍事與經濟考量外,本研界將中共主權核心利益牽涉底線思維的模式實施分析。綜合上述列舉因素分析,探討中美之間發生權力移轉的可能性與發生的形式為何,作為中美兩國與區域國家戰略情勢評估之參考。
zh_TW
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1
第一節研究動機與目的 1
第二節研究途徑與方法 5
第三節文獻探討 6
第四節研究範圍與限制 17
第五節章節安排 18
第二章 西太平洋美中兩國軍事實力初步評估 21
第一節西太平洋位置的重要性 21
第二節美國區域軍事部署與軍事交流 27
第三節中共軍事實力評估 37
第四節小結 43
第三章 美、中西太平洋政策 45
第一節美國印太戰略 45
第二節中共近海防禦,遠海護衛戰略方針 55
第三節中美南海危機管理作法 63
第四節小結 66
第四章 美、中於區域之合縱連橫 71
第一節區域國家對中美權力競逐下軍事合作傾向 71
第二節區域國家對中美權力競逐下經濟關係 79
第三節中共挑戰美國霸權之想定 84
第四節小結 88
第五章 結論 91
參考資料 98
zh_TW
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108922004en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 權力移轉zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 川普zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 印太戰略zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 川普時期美中在西太平洋權力移轉之研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Transition of Power between U.S.A. and P.R.C. within Trump’s Presidency in Western Pacificen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen_US
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 參考資料
一、 中文資料與文獻
(一) 官方文件資料
「中國軍事戰略」,中華人民共和國國防部,http://www.mod.gov.cn/big5/regulatory/2015-05/26/content_4617812_5.htm(2015年5月26日)。

「《中國的和平發展》白皮書(全文)」,中華人民共和國國防部,http://www.mod.gov.cn/big5/affair/2011-09/06/content_4295874_5.htm (2020年12月)。

「《新時代的中國國防》白皮書全文」,中華人民共和國國防部,http://www.mod.gov.cn/big5/regulatory/2019-07/24/content_4846424_10.htm (2020年12月)。

(二) 專書及專書篇章
大衛 拉普金( David P. Rapkin),威廉 湯普森( William R. Thompson),二十一世紀的美國與中共權力轉移想定(Transition Scenarios: China and United States in the Twenty-First Century),(臺北市:國防部政務辦公室,2016)。

向駿,二○五○中國第一?權力轉移理論下的美台中關係迷思,(新北市:博楊文化事業有限公司,2006)。

紀永添,「紀永添專欄:中國一年下水24艘軍艦背後的問題」,上報,https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?SerialNo=79520 (2020年1月16日)。

唐米樂(Tom Miller),中國的亞洲夢:一帶一路全面解讀,對台灣、全球將帶來什麼威脅和挑戰(China’s Asian Dream: Empire Building Along the New Silk Road),(林添貴譯)。(臺北市:時報文化,2017)。

徐遵慈,「美國對外援助政策之最新發展與臺美推動援外合作之前景」,中華經濟研究院,https://web.wtocenter.org.tw/Page.aspx?pid=331022&nid=68 (2019年10月24日)。

格雷厄姆.艾利森(Graham Allison),注定一戰?中美能否避免修昔底德陷阱(DESTINED FOR WAR: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’Trap?)(包淳亮譯),(新北市:八旗文化, 2018)。

馬振坤,「近期中共解放軍軍機遠訓觀察」,行政院大陸委員會大陸與兩岸情勢簡報,https://ws.mac.gov.tw/Download.ashx?u=LzAwMS9VcGxvYWQvMjk1L2NrZmlsZS85ZGI4YjQwYS04NzJkLTQ1ZGMtYjYzZC0xNWM1ODk3MDBhNDgucGRm&n=5LqU44CB6L%2BR5pyf5Lit5YWx6Kej5pS%2B6LuN6LuN5qmf6YGg6KiT6KeA5a%2BfLnBkZg%3D%3D (2018年1月)。

張亞中、張登及主編,國際關係總論,第四版(新北市:楊智文化,2016年)。
麥克雷諾茲(Joe McReynoldds)著,黃國賢譯,中共軍事戰略演進(China’s Evolving Military Strategy),(臺北:國防部政務辦公室,2020年)。

曾復生,「美國「亞太再平衡」戰略發展前景研析」,國家政策研究基金會https://www.npf.org.tw/2/12643 (2013年8月29日)。

歐錫富、龔祥生,「2019中共政軍發展評估報告」,財團法人國防安全研究院(2019年)。

鞠海龍,中國海權戰略,(北京市:時事出版社2010)。

(三) 網路資料與文獻
黃恩浩,「澳洲參與「馬拉巴爾 2020」海軍聯合演習 之觀察」,國防安全雙週報,https://indsr.org.tw/Content/Upload/files/8_%E6%BE%B3%E6%B4%B2%E5%8F%83%E8%88%872020%E9%A6%AC%E6%8B%89%E5%B7%B4%E7%88%BE%E6%B5%B7%E8%BB%8D%E8%81%AF%E6%BC%94%E4%B9%8B%E8%A7%80%E5%AF%9F.pdf (2020年11月17日)。

楊昭彥,「北約慶70周年 軍費爭議俄國威脅續糾纏」,中央廣播電臺,https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2016691 (2020年12月)。

葉長城,「美國印太戰略的形成、發展及其對臺灣經貿之意涵」,中華經濟研究院 ,https://web.wtocenter.org.tw/mobile/page.aspx?pid=328192&nid=126,(2020年10月11日)。

黎堡,「美中空中相遇規則軍方履行受質疑」,美國之音,https://www.google.com.tw/amp/s/www.voacantonese.com/amp/us-china-air-conduct-20150929/2985351.html(2015年9月30日)。

蕭琇安,「美國南海「航行自由」之成效」,財團法人國策研究院文教基金會,http://inpr.org.tw/m/405-1728-1638,c113.php?Lang=zh-tw (2020年10月17日)。

鍾玉嵐,中國海外基地的夢想與實現」,新華網,http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2015-07/08/c_127998658_2.htm (2015年7月8日)。

「深入學習貫徹習近平新時代中國特色社會主義思想,深刻認識堅持底線思維」,中國共產黨新聞網,http://theory.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2019/0625/c40531-31177911.html (2019年06月25日)。

「中美在南海進行《懦夫博弈》,恐致衝突升」,紐約時報中文網,https://cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20181109/south-china-sea-risks/zh-hant/(2018年11月19日)。

「日媒:抗衡中國 日法美明年5月首度聯合軍演」,中央社,日媒:抗衡中國 日法美明年5月首度聯合軍演 | 國際 | 重點新聞 | 中央社 CNA(2020年12月6日)。

「共同社:英國2021年將向日本近海派遣航艦」,中央社,https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/202012060002.aspx (2021年1月6日)。

「南海行為準則向前邁步 北京願與東協合作」,中央廣播電視臺,https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2040189(2019年11月4日)。

「南海衝突越南受到「中國強力威脅」 停止天然氣鑽探」,風傳媒,https://www.storm.mg/article/303745 (2017年年7月24日)。

「疫情影響國家安全 習近平強調戰備和底線思維」,BBC News中文,https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-52839508 (2020年12月)。

「美中關係緊張 美媒分析東南亞國家選邊站」,自由時報,https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/3338910 (2020年11月2日)。

「美航艦陷疫情 共軍遼寧艦編隊上午正穿行我國東部外海 」,聯合新聞網,https://udn.com/news/story/10930/4485952(2020年4月12日)。

「美國3航母打擊群同時集結印太被視為警告中國」,美國之音,https://www.voacantonese.com/a/us-naval-buildup-in-indo-pacific-seen-as-warning-to-china-20200614/5462185.html (2020年6月14日)。

「美國打破75年歷史 變身石油淨出口國產量全球第一」,中央社,https://www.cna.com.tw/news/firstnews/201812070359.aspx ((2018年12月8日)。

「美擬派第三艦隊增援亞太」,自由時報,https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/paper/1161748 (2017年12月20日)。

「強化軍事合作 日澳簽互惠准入協定」,中國時報,https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20201118000502-260119?chdtv (2020年11月18日)。

「閒置兩年後 中緬原油管道終於開通」,BBC NEWS中文,https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-39559135 (2020年12月)。

「澳智庫文章:疫情令美在印太軍力不堪重負」,新浪香港,https://m.sina.com.hk/news/article/20200412/0/5/2/%e6%be%b3%e6%99%ba%e5%ba%ab%e6%96%87%e7%ab%a0-%e7%96%ab%e6%83%85%e4%bb%a4%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%a8%e5%8d%b0%e5%a4%aa%e8%bb%8d%e5%8a%9b%e4%b8%8d%e5%a0%aa%e9%87%8d%e8%b2%a0-11507769.html(2020年4月12日)。

「中國海軍首次參加美國環太平洋軍演」,風傳媒,https://www.storm.mg/article/32052,(2014年6月19日)。

「規模大減!環太平洋軍演防疫 砍陸空演習」,聯合新聞網,https://udn.com/news/story/6809/4787157,(2020年8月17日)。

英文資料與文獻
(一) 官方文件資料
“National Security Strategy of the United States 2017,"The White House, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf (December 2017).

“National Defense Strategy of the United States 2018,"US Department of Defense, https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/1419045/dod-official-national-defense-strategy-will-enhance-deterrence/ (January 2018).

“FY2020 NDAA SUMMARY,"armed-services senate,
https://www.armedservices.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/FY20%20NDAA%20Conference%20Summary%20_%20FINAL.pdf, (December 2019).

“Summary of the 2018 National Defense strategy of the United States of America: Sharpening the American Military’s Competitive Edge,” Department of Defense,
https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf(Dec 2020)

“Indo-Pacific Strategy Report;Preparedness, Partnerships, and Promoting a Networked Regio,” THE DEPARMENT OF DEFENSE, https://media.defense.gov/2019/Jul/01/2002152311/-1/-1/1/DEPARTMENT-OF-DEFENSE-INDO-PACIFIC-STRATEGY-REPORT-2019.PDF, (Dec.2020 ).

“Remarks by Pompeo, Michael R. on America`s Indo-Pacific Economic Vision,” U.S. Department of State,
https://www.state.gov/remarks-on-americas-indo-pacific-economic-vision/, (30th Jul. 2018).

“U.S. Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea by Michael R. Pompeo,” U.S. Department of State, https://www.state.gov/u-s-position-on-maritime-claims-in-the-south-china-sea/ (13rd Jul. 2020).

“Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020; Annual Report to Congress,” Department of Defense, https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF ( Nov. 2020).

“Defining Our Relationship with India for the Next Century: An Address by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson,” Center for Strategic and International Studies,
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/event/171018_An_Address_by_U.S._Secretary_of_State_Rex_Tillerson.pdf?O0nMCCRjXZiUa5V2cF8_NDiZ14LYRX3m (27th Sep. 2020).

“Remarks by Vice President Pence on the Administration’s Policy Toward China,” The White House,
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-vice-president-pence-administrations-policy-toward-china/ (17th Sep. 2019).

(二) 專書及專書篇章
Pillsbury, Michael, 2016. The Hundred-Year Marathon : China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. New York, N.Y;Henry Holt and Company, LLC.,pp.135.

(三) 網路資料與文獻
Aaron Mehta, “Inside US Indo-Pacific Command’s $20 billion wish list to deter China — and why Congress may approve it,"Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/04/02/inside-us-indo-pacific-commands-20-billion-wish-list-to-deter-china-and-why-congress-may-approve-it/ (2 April 2020).

Balasubramaniam Thangavel K., Ashok Kumar Murugesan, “China’s Rising Missile and Naval Capabilities in the Indo-Pacific Region, Security Implication for India and Its Allies” Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, https://media.defense.gov/2020/Jun/08/2002312001/-1/-1/1/DO_BALASUBRAMANIAM.PDF, (Summer 2020) , p104-105.

Bhattacharyya, Rajeev, “Hand-in-Hand 2019: Indian and Chinese Armies Come Together for Joint Military Exercise,"The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2019/12/hand-in-hand-2019-indian-and-chinese-armies-come-together-for-joint-military-exercise/ (27th Dec. 2019).

Brunnstrom, David, Wroughton, Lesley, “U.S. agrees deal on rotational presence at five bases in Philippines,” CNN, https://cnnphilippines.com/world/2016/03/19/us-philippines-five-bases-deal.html (19th Mar. 2016).

Chen, Zhuo,“Chinese frigate leaves for ROK and Singapore to take part in live-fire exercise " joint exercise,"China Military, http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2019-04/28/content_9491510.htm (28th Apr. 2019).

Dunn, Candace, Barden, Justine, “More than 30% of global maritime crude oil trade moves through the South China Sea,"Independent Statistic& Analysis U.S. Energy,
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36952 (27th Aug. 2018).

Kristian, Bonnie, “Esper’s dark vision for US-China conflict makes war more likely,"Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/03/19/espers-dark-vision-for-us-china-conflict-makes-war-more-likely/ (19 March 2020).

Larter, David B., “Defense Department study calls for cutting 2 of the US Navy’s aircraft carriers,"Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/04/20/defense-department-study-calls-for-cutting-2-of-the-us-navys-aircraft-carriers/ (20 April 2020).

Larter, David B., “In challenging China’s claims in the South China Sea, the US Navy is getting more assertive,"Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2020/02/05/in-challenging-chinas-claims-in-the-south-china-sea-the-us-navy-is-getting-more-assertive/ (30 May 2020).

Larter, David B., “The surface Navy needs to fundamentally reshape itself to defeat the Chinese threat, study finds,"Defense News, https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/surface-navy-association/2020/01/08/the-surface-navy-needs-to-fundamentally-reshape-itself-to-defeat-the-chinese-threat-study-finds/ (8 January 2020).

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dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202100244en_US