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題名 資源詛咒?自然資源與內戰
The curse of resources? Natural resources and civil war作者 李嘉璇
Li, Jia-Syuan貢獻者 蘇昱璇
Su, Yu-Hsuan
李嘉璇
Li, Jia-Syuan關鍵詞 自然資源詛咒
內戰
自然資源租金
The curse of natural resources
Civil war
Rent of natural resources日期 2021 上傳時間 1-Oct-2021 10:10:51 (UTC+8) 摘要 自然資源詛咒,探討為何國家擁有某種大量不可再生的自然資源,理應可以促進國內的經濟成長,帶動國家的發展,卻反而造成經濟增長遲緩、工業化低落、貧富差距、過度依賴單一經濟結構、產業難以轉型、非民主的窘境。本研究假設仰賴自然資源的國家,有較高的機率發生內戰,以自然資源詛咒為理論基礎,研究自然資源租金的多寡和一國的內戰有無關聯,以及如果有關聯,何種自然資源對於內戰的影響最大;並以較長的資料年限,檢視在 Auty 提出理論的二十多年後詛咒是否仍然存在。本研究結合世界銀行、政體四計畫以及 UCDP/PRIO 之武裝衝突資料庫數據,建立資料區間 1970-2017 年 193 個國家的追蹤資料,以「國家-年」的數據結構,進行「時間序列與橫斷面資料」與「廣義估計方程式」的分析。為了更精確的將自然資源對於內戰的影響進行詮釋,本研究亦加入三個面向的討論:只考慮有生產自然資源的國家、進行地理分區、排除高收入國家。研究結果發現:整體而言自然資源和內戰爆發呈現高度相關,驗證自然資源詛咒理論的存在。在各種自然資源類型中,石油和天然氣對於內戰爆發機率的提高是有顯著影響的,而煤炭與金屬礦產對於內戰爆發機率的影響不大,森林資源與內戰的聯繫甚至有歧異性。此外,不同種類的自然資源對於不同地區均會產生不同的效果。自然資源在各地理區和內戰爆發呈現顯著正相關的分別是:南亞的石油、煤炭、天然氣,歐洲和中亞的石油、天然氣,撒哈拉以南非洲的天然氣,拉丁美洲和加勒比海的石油。東亞和太平洋以及中東和北非各類自然資源對於內戰爆發的影響均不顯著。
The curse of natural resources is a theory discussing why a country has a large amount of non-renewable natural resources, which should promote domestic economic growth and drive the country’s development, but have caused slow economic growth, income inequality, undemocracy, low industrialization, unsuccessful industrial transformation, and the dilemma of over-reliance on a single economic structure. This study assumes that countries that rely on natural resources have a higher probability of civil wars. Based on the curse of natural resources, I explore whether the natural resource rents are related to civil wars onset in a country, and if so, what kind of natural resources will have the largest impact on the civil war. I also use a longer period of data to examine whether the curse still exists more than 20 years after Auty put forward the theory.This study combines data from the World Bank, the Polity IV Project and UCDP/PRIO’s armed conflict database to establish a panel dataset for 193 countries from 1970 to 2017. The data structure of “country-year”" is used to conduct analysis of time series and cross-sectional data using generalized estimation equations. In order to more accurately interpret the impact of natural resources on the civil war, this study adds three aspects of discussion: only consider countries that produce natural resources, carry out geographic divisions, and exclude high-income countries.The results of the study found that natural resources are highly correlated with civil war onset, verifying the existence of the natural resources curse. Oil and natural gas have significant impact on the increase in probability of civil wars, while coal and metal minerals have little effect, and the relationship between forest resources and civil wars are even different in different specifications. In addition, different types of natural resources have different effects in different regions. The following natural resources have significantly positive impact on civil war onset: oil, coal, and natural gas in South Asia; oil and natural gas in Europe and Central Asia; natural gas in sub-Saharan Africa; oil in Latin America and the Caribbean. 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Journal of Economic Literature, 49(2), 366–420. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.2.366C. 網路資料Polity IV Project, https://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htmUppsala Conflict Data Program: UCDP, https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/World Bank, https://data.worldbank.org 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國家發展研究所
108261003資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108261003 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 蘇昱璇 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Su, Yu-Hsuan en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李嘉璇 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Li, Jia-Syuan en_US dc.creator (作者) 李嘉璇 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Li, Jia-Syuan en_US dc.date (日期) 2021 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Oct-2021 10:10:51 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Oct-2021 10:10:51 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Oct-2021 10:10:51 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0108261003 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/137315 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國家發展研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 108261003 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 自然資源詛咒,探討為何國家擁有某種大量不可再生的自然資源,理應可以促進國內的經濟成長,帶動國家的發展,卻反而造成經濟增長遲緩、工業化低落、貧富差距、過度依賴單一經濟結構、產業難以轉型、非民主的窘境。本研究假設仰賴自然資源的國家,有較高的機率發生內戰,以自然資源詛咒為理論基礎,研究自然資源租金的多寡和一國的內戰有無關聯,以及如果有關聯,何種自然資源對於內戰的影響最大;並以較長的資料年限,檢視在 Auty 提出理論的二十多年後詛咒是否仍然存在。本研究結合世界銀行、政體四計畫以及 UCDP/PRIO 之武裝衝突資料庫數據,建立資料區間 1970-2017 年 193 個國家的追蹤資料,以「國家-年」的數據結構,進行「時間序列與橫斷面資料」與「廣義估計方程式」的分析。為了更精確的將自然資源對於內戰的影響進行詮釋,本研究亦加入三個面向的討論:只考慮有生產自然資源的國家、進行地理分區、排除高收入國家。研究結果發現:整體而言自然資源和內戰爆發呈現高度相關,驗證自然資源詛咒理論的存在。在各種自然資源類型中,石油和天然氣對於內戰爆發機率的提高是有顯著影響的,而煤炭與金屬礦產對於內戰爆發機率的影響不大,森林資源與內戰的聯繫甚至有歧異性。此外,不同種類的自然資源對於不同地區均會產生不同的效果。自然資源在各地理區和內戰爆發呈現顯著正相關的分別是:南亞的石油、煤炭、天然氣,歐洲和中亞的石油、天然氣,撒哈拉以南非洲的天然氣,拉丁美洲和加勒比海的石油。東亞和太平洋以及中東和北非各類自然資源對於內戰爆發的影響均不顯著。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) The curse of natural resources is a theory discussing why a country has a large amount of non-renewable natural resources, which should promote domestic economic growth and drive the country’s development, but have caused slow economic growth, income inequality, undemocracy, low industrialization, unsuccessful industrial transformation, and the dilemma of over-reliance on a single economic structure. This study assumes that countries that rely on natural resources have a higher probability of civil wars. Based on the curse of natural resources, I explore whether the natural resource rents are related to civil wars onset in a country, and if so, what kind of natural resources will have the largest impact on the civil war. I also use a longer period of data to examine whether the curse still exists more than 20 years after Auty put forward the theory.This study combines data from the World Bank, the Polity IV Project and UCDP/PRIO’s armed conflict database to establish a panel dataset for 193 countries from 1970 to 2017. The data structure of “country-year”" is used to conduct analysis of time series and cross-sectional data using generalized estimation equations. In order to more accurately interpret the impact of natural resources on the civil war, this study adds three aspects of discussion: only consider countries that produce natural resources, carry out geographic divisions, and exclude high-income countries.The results of the study found that natural resources are highly correlated with civil war onset, verifying the existence of the natural resources curse. Oil and natural gas have significant impact on the increase in probability of civil wars, while coal and metal minerals have little effect, and the relationship between forest resources and civil wars are even different in different specifications. In addition, different types of natural resources have different effects in different regions. The following natural resources have significantly positive impact on civil war onset: oil, coal, and natural gas in South Asia; oil and natural gas in Europe and Central Asia; natural gas in sub-Saharan Africa; oil in Latin America and the Caribbean. In East Asia and Pacific and the Middle East and North Africa, the impact of natural resources is not significant. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究問題與目的 4第三節 研究流程 5第貳章 文獻回顧 6第一節 自然資源的產業概況 6一、 石油業 6二、 金屬礦業 7三、 森林業 8四、 稀有金屬 9第二節 自然資源詛咒理論 10一、 自然資源詛咒對經濟面向的影響 11二、 自然資源詛咒對制度面向的影響 14第三節 文獻中關於內戰爆發原因之探討 16一、 人口 17二、 地理環境 17三、 自然資源 17四、 經濟 18五、 衝突歷史 18六、 政府類型與政權 18第四節 文獻中自然資源與內戰關聯影響之研究 19一、 種族同質/分化程度 20二、 收入的類型 21三、 自然資源占出口比例 21四、 資本密集型商品的價格下跌 22五、 領導者的選擇 22第五節 自然資源與內戰爆發之聯繫 22第參章 研究方法與資料來源 27第一節 實證研究方法 27第二節 實證模型 28第三節 穩健性檢驗 29第四節 研究資料來源 31一、 依變數:內戰的爆發 31二、 主要自變數:自然資源租金 32三、 控制變數 33四、 敘述統計 36第肆章 實證結果 42第一節 自然資源和內戰爆發之間的關係 42一、 自然資源和內戰爆發之間的關係 42二、 加入控制變數 45第二節 進行地理分區 48一、 東亞和太平洋 48二、 南亞 50三、 歐洲和中亞 52四、 中東和北非 54五、 撒哈拉以南非洲 56六、 拉丁美洲和加勒比海 58第伍章 結論 60第一節 研究總結 60第二節 研究貢獻 62第三節 研究限制與未來研究方向 63參考文獻 66第壹章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究問題與目的 4第三節 研究流程 5第貳章 文獻回顧 6第一節 自然資源的產業概況 6一、 石油業 6二、 金屬礦業 7三、 森林業 8四、 稀有金屬 9第二節 自然資源詛咒理論 10一、 自然資源詛咒對經濟面向的影響 11二、 自然資源詛咒對制度面向的影響 14第三節 文獻中關於內戰爆發原因之探討 16一、 人口 17二、 地理環境 17三、 自然資源 17四、 經濟 18五、 衝突歷史 18六、 政府類型與政權 18第四節 文獻中自然資源與內戰關聯影響之研究 19一、 種族同質/分化程度 20二、 收入的類型 21三、 自然資源占出口比例 21四、 資本密集型商品的價格下跌 22五、 領導者的選擇 22第五節 自然資源與內戰爆發之聯繫 22第參章 研究方法與資料來源 27第一節 實證研究方法 27第二節 實證模型 28第三節 穩健性檢驗 29第四節 研究資料來源 31一、 依變數:內戰的爆發 31二、 主要自變數:自然資源租金 32三、 控制變數 33四、 敘述統計 36第肆章 實證結果 42第一節 自然資源和內戰爆發之間的關係 42一、 自然資源和內戰爆發之間的關係 42二、 加入控制變數 45第二節 進行地理分區 48一、 東亞和太平洋 48二、 南亞 50三、 歐洲和中亞 52四、 中東和北非 54五、 撒哈拉以南非洲 56六、 拉丁美洲和加勒比海 58第伍章 結論 60第一節 研究總結 60第二節 研究貢獻 62第三節 研究限制與未來研究方向 63參考文獻 66 表次表1 敘述統計表 37表2 自然資源租金所得占GDP比例最高的前10次,1970-2016年 38表3 內戰爆發頻率最高的前11國,1971-2017年 41表4 自然資源和內戰爆發之間的關係 44表5 加入控制變數後的自然資源和內戰爆發之間的關係,1971-2017年 47表6 東亞和太平洋 49表7 南亞 51表8 歐洲和中亞 53表9 中東和北非 55表10 撒哈拉以南非洲 57表11 拉丁美洲和加勒比海 59圖次圖1 各類自然資源租金所得占GDP比例,1970-2016年 40 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3897196 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0108261003 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自然資源詛咒 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 內戰 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自然資源租金 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) The curse of natural resources en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Civil war en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Rent of natural resources en_US dc.title (題名) 資源詛咒?自然資源與內戰 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The curse of resources? 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