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題名 An integrated forecasting model for the coffee bean supply chain
作者 Le, Thi-Nham
黎氏仁
Wang, Chia-Nan
Yu, Min-Chun
Ho, Nguyen-Nhu-Y
貢獻者 東南亞語言與文化學士學位學程
關鍵詞 Optimization;Forecasting Model;Supply Chain Management;Coffee Bean
日期 2021-04
上傳時間 4-Jan-2022 14:45:02 (UTC+8)
摘要 Coffee is the most traded commodity after petroleum. The Vietnamese coffee bean industry has raised concerns lately over an inefficient coffee value chain; bets on coffee price uncertainty are increasing worldwide in the current. Accurate optimization of coffee bean prices helps manufacturers to control an unpredictable market and upgrade cooperativeness in sustainable agriculture. The authors proposed a forecasting method to deal with demand volatility and uncertainty in volumes and coffee bean prices. In this paper, we applied the forecasting nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NGBM) (1,1). NGBM (1,1), which is based on the parameter optimization algorithm, can increase the precision of predictions. NGBM (1,1) was integrated with Fourier residual modification model to forecast coffee bean price, which was a crucial factor in the Vietnamese coee bean supply chain. The price of coffee beans was calculated using a differential equation in an uncertain system, along with actual data collected over the past six years. The results of this study demonstrate that an integrated forecasting model is an effective forecasting method. This research can help companies to control risks that come with uncertain coffee prices and reduce risks in the sustainable agriculture supply chain.
關聯 Applied Economics, Vol.53, No.28, pp.3321-3333
資料類型 article
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1887447
dc.contributor 東南亞語言與文化學士學位學程
dc.creator (作者) Le, Thi-Nham
dc.creator (作者) 黎氏仁
dc.creator (作者) Wang, Chia-Nan
dc.creator (作者) Yu, Min-Chun
dc.creator (作者) Ho, Nguyen-Nhu-Y
dc.date (日期) 2021-04
dc.date.accessioned 4-Jan-2022 14:45:02 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 4-Jan-2022 14:45:02 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 4-Jan-2022 14:45:02 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/138427-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Coffee is the most traded commodity after petroleum. The Vietnamese coffee bean industry has raised concerns lately over an inefficient coffee value chain; bets on coffee price uncertainty are increasing worldwide in the current. Accurate optimization of coffee bean prices helps manufacturers to control an unpredictable market and upgrade cooperativeness in sustainable agriculture. The authors proposed a forecasting method to deal with demand volatility and uncertainty in volumes and coffee bean prices. In this paper, we applied the forecasting nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NGBM) (1,1). NGBM (1,1), which is based on the parameter optimization algorithm, can increase the precision of predictions. NGBM (1,1) was integrated with Fourier residual modification model to forecast coffee bean price, which was a crucial factor in the Vietnamese coee bean supply chain. The price of coffee beans was calculated using a differential equation in an uncertain system, along with actual data collected over the past six years. The results of this study demonstrate that an integrated forecasting model is an effective forecasting method. This research can help companies to control risks that come with uncertain coffee prices and reduce risks in the sustainable agriculture supply chain.
dc.format.extent 890012 bytes-
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf-
dc.relation (關聯) Applied Economics, Vol.53, No.28, pp.3321-3333
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Optimization;Forecasting Model;Supply Chain Management;Coffee Bean
dc.title (題名) An integrated forecasting model for the coffee bean supply chain
dc.type (資料類型) article
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1080/00036846.2021.1887447
dc.doi.uri (DOI) https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1887447