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題名 Intel 和 AMD 之動態競爭— 個案研究與 Lotka-Volterra 模型的整合性分析
Dynamic competition of Intel and AMD— An Integrative Analysis of Case Studies and Lotka-Volterra models作者 高偉哲
Kao, Wei-Che貢獻者 許牧彥
高偉哲
Kao, Wei-Che關鍵詞 動態競爭
Lotka-Volterra 模型
反托拉斯法
Dynamic competition
Lotka-Volterra model
Antitrust law日期 2022 上傳時間 1-Aug-2022 18:53:11 (UTC+8) 摘要 Intel和AMD為設計x86架構CPU的唯二大廠，雙方自1968年成立以來，便在市場策略上有許多交鋒，公司營運也有不少巨大波動，在2015年還曾面臨倒閉危機的AMD，卻在2022年2月市值短暫超越當時的Intel。台灣身為半導體產業大國，2022年的產值被預估為4.5兆美元，尤其晶圓代工龍頭的台積電市值一度進入世界前十大企業，在Intel和AMD皆為台積電重要利害關係人或客戶之下，台灣廠商需更審慎評估會影響產業脈動的競爭關係，以增強競爭力。本研究以個案研究法針對Intel和AMD的CPU業務作為研究的對象和範圍，並以動態競爭理論的資源相似性概念，去描述雙方的動態競爭歷史，進一步分析發現Intel曾經很需要AMD來幫助自己進入新市場，而AMD曾利用反托拉斯法牽制住Intel的成長，並持續累積資源找尋反撲的機會，因此本研究針對Intel與AMD之間的動態競爭歷史進行深入的個案研究。為了解讀競爭事件始末的脈絡，本研究除了透過動態競爭理論加以解釋，另以Lotka-Volterra動態競爭模型探討雙方在個人電腦市場和伺服器市場的競爭狀態和自我成長能力，以及台積電如何影響雙方資源與優勢。本研究發現，在個人電腦市場中，AMD已經靠得到台積電製程這個重要資源後以及五十年累積的IC設計技術，與Intel進入純粹競爭的關係，但電腦產品已進入成熟期，不會是雙方未來的發展重點。而AMD在伺服器市場雖然相對還未有明顯成績，但已經轉為捕食者的領導地位，然而，在伺服器產品尚未進入成熟期之時，會是雙方積極部署資源去競爭的市場。本研究之貢獻在於加入Lotka-Volterra動態競爭模型來對Intel和AMD的動態競爭進行整合性的分析，點出雙方在個人電腦市場和伺服器市場不同競爭關係的解析。另一方面，本文也融入了logistic模型和經濟學模型的概念，為Lotka-Volterra動態競爭模型的係數刻畫出更深的輪廓，讓台積電針對係數的數值，看到x86架構CPU的市場局勢，加以行動。
Intel and AMD are the only two major manufacturers that design x86architecture CPUs. Since their establishment in 1968, the two sides have had many confrontations on market strategies, and there have been many huge fluctuations inhistory. AMD, which was facing the crisis of bankruptcy in 2015, but its market value briefly surpassed Intel in February 2022. Taiwan is a semiconductor kingdom withhigh level technique and resources, our output value in 2022 is estimated to be 4.5 trillion US dollars. In particular, the market value of the leading wafer foundry TSMC, once entered the world`s top ten companies. Both Intel and AMD are important stakeholders or customers of TSMC. Therefore, Taiwanese manufacturers need to more carefully evaluate the competitive relationship that will affect the pulseof the industry to enhance the competitiveness of our country.This research uses the case study method for the CPU business of Intel and AMD as the research object and scope, and uses the resource similarity concept of dynamiccompetition theory to describe the dynamic competition history of the two CPU giants. Further analysis finds that Intel once needed AMD to help itself to enter newmarkets, while AMD used antitrust laws to contain Intel`s growth and continued to accumulate resources to find opportunities to counterattack. This study conducts anin-depth case study on the dynamic competition history between Intel and AMD. In order to interpret the context of the competition events, this study not only explainsthe dynamic competition theory, but also uses the Lotka-Volterra dynamic competition model to explore the competition status and self-growth ability of the twoparties in the personal computer market and the server market, and how TSMC affects the resources of both parties. with advantages. This study found that in the PC market,AMD has entered into a purely competitive relationship with Intel based on the important resource of TSMC`s process and IC design technology accumulated over 50 years. Although AMD has not yet achieved significant results in the server market, it has turned to the leading position as the predator. However, as the server market has not yet entered the mature stage, it will be a market where both Intel and AMD actively deploy resources to compete.The contribution of this study is to add the Lotka-Volterra dynamic competition model to conduct an integrated analysis of the dynamic competition between Intel and AMD, and to point out the analysis of the different competitive relationships between the two sides in the PC market and the server market. On the other hand, this paper also incorporates the concepts of logistic model and economic model to draw a deeper outline for the coefficient of the Lotka-Volterra dynamic competition model, so thatTSMC can see the market situation of the x86 CPU based on the value of the coefficient and then take some actions.參考文獻 英文文獻Anisiu, M.-C. (2014). Lotka, Volterra and their model. Didáctica mathematica, 32, 9-17.Asianometry. (2022). How AMD Left GlobalFoundries for TSMC. https://meet-global.bnext.com.tw/articles/view/47591Carroll, G. R. (1981). Dynamics of organizational expansion in national systems of education. American Sociological Review, 585-599.Chen, M.-J. (1996). Competitor analysis and interfirm rivalry: Toward a theoretical integration. Academy of management review, 21(1), 100-134.Hung, H.-C., Chiu, Y.-C., & Wu, M.-C. (2017). Analysis of competition between IDM and fabless–foundry business models in the semiconductor industry. IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, 30(3), 254-260.Kim, J., Lee, D.-J., & Ahn, J. (2006). A dynamic competition analysis on the Korean mobile phone market using competitive diffusion model. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 51(1), 174-182.Kreng, V. B., & Wang, H. T. (2009). The interaction of the market competition between LCD TV and PDP TV. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 57(4), 1210-1217.Lotka, A. J. (1920). Analytical note on certain rhythmic relations in organic systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 6(7), 410-415.Marasco, A., Picucci, A., & Romano, A. (2016). Market share dynamics using Lotka–Volterra models. Technological forecasting and social change, 105, 49-62.Merriam, S. B., & Tisdell, E. J. (2015). Qualitative research: A guide to design and implementation. John Wiley & Sons.NetworkWorld. (2009). Intel and antitrust: A brief history. https://www.networkworld.com/article/2239461/intel-and-antitrust--a-brief-history.htmlPark, C. (2008). Global product development in semiconductor industry: Intel--Tick-Tock product development cadence Massachusetts Institute of Technology].Porter, M. E. (1979). How competitive forces shape strategy.Research, M. (2022). AMD Sets All-Time CPU Market Share Record as Intel Gains in Desktop and Notebook PCs. https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-amd-4q-2021-2022-market-share-desktop-notebook-server-x86Smitalova, K., Smítalová, K., & Šujan, Š. (1991). A mathematical treatment of dynamical models in biological science. Ellis Horwood Limited.Tang, Y., & Zhang, J. (2005). A competition model for two CPU vendors. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 348, 465-480.Vives, X. (1984). Duopoly information equilibrium: Cournot and Bertrand. Journal of economic theory, 34(1), 71-94.Volterra, V. (1926). Fluctuations in the abundance of a species considered mathematically. Nature, 118(2972), 558-560.Wernerfelt, B. (1984). A resource‐based view of the firm. Strategic management journal, 5(2), 171-180.Yin, R. K. (1984). Case study research: design and methods. Beverly Hills, Calif. In: Sage Publications.Yin, R. K. (1994). Discovering the future of the case study. Method in evaluation research. Evaluation practice, 15(3), 283-290.中文文獻GIGABYTE. (2019). AMD EPYC 伺服器處理器的崛起過程. https://www.gigabyte.com/tw/Article/amd-server-cpu-rise-into-epycIntel官方網站. CPU vs GPU：差異是什麼. https://www.intel.com.tw/content/www/tw/zh/products/docs/processors/cpu-vs-gpu.html曲威光. (2013). 積體電路與微機電產業. 全華圖書.許牧彥. (2022). 產業結構對市場價格的影響. https://seaeconomicsofinnovation.blogspot.com/陳列全. (2013). 以資源基礎理論 探討半導體產業的整合趨勢.廖義男. (1993). 公平交易法之註釋研究 系列(一). 行政院公平交易委員會線代啟示錄. (2013). 線代膠囊──正交投影矩陣. https://ccjou.wordpress.com/2013/05/07/%E7%B7%9A%E4%BB%A3%E8%86%A0%E5%9B%8A%E2%94%80%E2%94%80%E6%AD%A3%E4%BA%A4%E6%8A%95%E5%BD%B1%E7%9F%A9%E9%99%A3/ 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
科技管理與智慧財產研究所
109364129資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109364129 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 許牧彥 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 高偉哲 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Kao, Wei-Che en_US dc.creator (作者) 高偉哲 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Kao, Wei-Che en_US dc.date (日期) 2022 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Aug-2022 18:53:11 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Aug-2022 18:53:11 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Aug-2022 18:53:11 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109364129 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141364 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 科技管理與智慧財產研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109364129 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Intel和AMD為設計x86架構CPU的唯二大廠，雙方自1968年成立以來，便在市場策略上有許多交鋒，公司營運也有不少巨大波動，在2015年還曾面臨倒閉危機的AMD，卻在2022年2月市值短暫超越當時的Intel。台灣身為半導體產業大國，2022年的產值被預估為4.5兆美元，尤其晶圓代工龍頭的台積電市值一度進入世界前十大企業，在Intel和AMD皆為台積電重要利害關係人或客戶之下，台灣廠商需更審慎評估會影響產業脈動的競爭關係，以增強競爭力。本研究以個案研究法針對Intel和AMD的CPU業務作為研究的對象和範圍，並以動態競爭理論的資源相似性概念，去描述雙方的動態競爭歷史，進一步分析發現Intel曾經很需要AMD來幫助自己進入新市場，而AMD曾利用反托拉斯法牽制住Intel的成長，並持續累積資源找尋反撲的機會，因此本研究針對Intel與AMD之間的動態競爭歷史進行深入的個案研究。為了解讀競爭事件始末的脈絡，本研究除了透過動態競爭理論加以解釋，另以Lotka-Volterra動態競爭模型探討雙方在個人電腦市場和伺服器市場的競爭狀態和自我成長能力，以及台積電如何影響雙方資源與優勢。本研究發現，在個人電腦市場中，AMD已經靠得到台積電製程這個重要資源後以及五十年累積的IC設計技術，與Intel進入純粹競爭的關係，但電腦產品已進入成熟期，不會是雙方未來的發展重點。而AMD在伺服器市場雖然相對還未有明顯成績，但已經轉為捕食者的領導地位，然而，在伺服器產品尚未進入成熟期之時，會是雙方積極部署資源去競爭的市場。本研究之貢獻在於加入Lotka-Volterra動態競爭模型來對Intel和AMD的動態競爭進行整合性的分析，點出雙方在個人電腦市場和伺服器市場不同競爭關係的解析。另一方面，本文也融入了logistic模型和經濟學模型的概念，為Lotka-Volterra動態競爭模型的係數刻畫出更深的輪廓，讓台積電針對係數的數值，看到x86架構CPU的市場局勢，加以行動。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) Intel and AMD are the only two major manufacturers that design x86architecture CPUs. Since their establishment in 1968, the two sides have had many confrontations on market strategies, and there have been many huge fluctuations inhistory. AMD, which was facing the crisis of bankruptcy in 2015, but its market value briefly surpassed Intel in February 2022. Taiwan is a semiconductor kingdom withhigh level technique and resources, our output value in 2022 is estimated to be 4.5 trillion US dollars. In particular, the market value of the leading wafer foundry TSMC, once entered the world`s top ten companies. Both Intel and AMD are important stakeholders or customers of TSMC. Therefore, Taiwanese manufacturers need to more carefully evaluate the competitive relationship that will affect the pulseof the industry to enhance the competitiveness of our country.This research uses the case study method for the CPU business of Intel and AMD as the research object and scope, and uses the resource similarity concept of dynamiccompetition theory to describe the dynamic competition history of the two CPU giants. Further analysis finds that Intel once needed AMD to help itself to enter newmarkets, while AMD used antitrust laws to contain Intel`s growth and continued to accumulate resources to find opportunities to counterattack. This study conducts anin-depth case study on the dynamic competition history between Intel and AMD. In order to interpret the context of the competition events, this study not only explainsthe dynamic competition theory, but also uses the Lotka-Volterra dynamic competition model to explore the competition status and self-growth ability of the twoparties in the personal computer market and the server market, and how TSMC affects the resources of both parties. with advantages. This study found that in the PC market,AMD has entered into a purely competitive relationship with Intel based on the important resource of TSMC`s process and IC design technology accumulated over 50 years. Although AMD has not yet achieved significant results in the server market, it has turned to the leading position as the predator. However, as the server market has not yet entered the mature stage, it will be a market where both Intel and AMD actively deploy resources to compete.The contribution of this study is to add the Lotka-Volterra dynamic competition model to conduct an integrated analysis of the dynamic competition between Intel and AMD, and to point out the analysis of the different competitive relationships between the two sides in the PC market and the server market. On the other hand, this paper also incorporates the concepts of logistic model and economic model to draw a deeper outline for the coefficient of the Lotka-Volterra dynamic competition model, so thatTSMC can see the market situation of the x86 CPU based on the value of the coefficient and then take some actions. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第壹章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 研究目的與問題 3第三節 研究定位與內容 5第貳章 文獻回顧 6第一節 寡占競爭的靜態模型 6第二節 動態競爭理論與模型 11第三節 Lotka-Volterra模型及後續發展 13第四節 文獻小結與研究缺口 18第參章 研究方法 20第一節 研究架構與對象 20第二節 個案分析法 24第三節 Lotka-Volterra模型分析 25第肆章 動態競爭個案分析 28第一節 半導體產業鏈 28第二節 Intel企業 35第三節 AMD企業 40第四節 Intel和AMD的競爭動態 45第伍章 市場面的動態分析 55第一節 敘述性統計分析 55第二節 Lotka-Volterra模型數據解析 63第陸章 結論與建議 70第一節 研究結論與實務建議 70第二節 研究限制與後續研究 71參考資料 73附錄A 76 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2677170 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109364129 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 動態競爭 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Lotka-Volterra 模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 反托拉斯法 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Dynamic competition en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Lotka-Volterra model en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Antitrust law en_US dc.title (題名) Intel 和 AMD 之動態競爭— 個案研究與 Lotka-Volterra 模型的整合性分析 zh_TW dc.title (題名) Dynamic competition of Intel and AMD— An Integrative Analysis of Case Studies and Lotka-Volterra models en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文文獻Anisiu, M.-C. (2014). Lotka, Volterra and their model. Didáctica mathematica, 32, 9-17.Asianometry. (2022). How AMD Left GlobalFoundries for TSMC. https://meet-global.bnext.com.tw/articles/view/47591Carroll, G. R. (1981). Dynamics of organizational expansion in national systems of education. American Sociological Review, 585-599.Chen, M.-J. (1996). Competitor analysis and interfirm rivalry: Toward a theoretical integration. Academy of management review, 21(1), 100-134.Hung, H.-C., Chiu, Y.-C., & Wu, M.-C. (2017). Analysis of competition between IDM and fabless–foundry business models in the semiconductor industry. IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, 30(3), 254-260.Kim, J., Lee, D.-J., & Ahn, J. (2006). A dynamic competition analysis on the Korean mobile phone market using competitive diffusion model. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 51(1), 174-182.Kreng, V. B., & Wang, H. T. (2009). The interaction of the market competition between LCD TV and PDP TV. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 57(4), 1210-1217.Lotka, A. J. (1920). Analytical note on certain rhythmic relations in organic systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 6(7), 410-415.Marasco, A., Picucci, A., & Romano, A. (2016). Market share dynamics using Lotka–Volterra models. Technological forecasting and social change, 105, 49-62.Merriam, S. B., & Tisdell, E. J. (2015). Qualitative research: A guide to design and implementation. John Wiley & Sons.NetworkWorld. (2009). Intel and antitrust: A brief history. https://www.networkworld.com/article/2239461/intel-and-antitrust--a-brief-history.htmlPark, C. (2008). Global product development in semiconductor industry: Intel--Tick-Tock product development cadence Massachusetts Institute of Technology].Porter, M. E. (1979). How competitive forces shape strategy.Research, M. (2022). AMD Sets All-Time CPU Market Share Record as Intel Gains in Desktop and Notebook PCs. https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-amd-4q-2021-2022-market-share-desktop-notebook-server-x86Smitalova, K., Smítalová, K., & Šujan, Š. (1991). A mathematical treatment of dynamical models in biological science. Ellis Horwood Limited.Tang, Y., & Zhang, J. (2005). A competition model for two CPU vendors. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 348, 465-480.Vives, X. (1984). Duopoly information equilibrium: Cournot and Bertrand. Journal of economic theory, 34(1), 71-94.Volterra, V. (1926). Fluctuations in the abundance of a species considered mathematically. Nature, 118(2972), 558-560.Wernerfelt, B. (1984). A resource‐based view of the firm. Strategic management journal, 5(2), 171-180.Yin, R. K. (1984). Case study research: design and methods. Beverly Hills, Calif. In: Sage Publications.Yin, R. K. (1994). Discovering the future of the case study. Method in evaluation research. Evaluation practice, 15(3), 283-290.中文文獻GIGABYTE. (2019). AMD EPYC 伺服器處理器的崛起過程. https://www.gigabyte.com/tw/Article/amd-server-cpu-rise-into-epycIntel官方網站. CPU vs GPU：差異是什麼. https://www.intel.com.tw/content/www/tw/zh/products/docs/processors/cpu-vs-gpu.html曲威光. (2013). 積體電路與微機電產業. 全華圖書.許牧彥. (2022). 產業結構對市場價格的影響. https://seaeconomicsofinnovation.blogspot.com/陳列全. (2013). 以資源基礎理論 探討半導體產業的整合趨勢.廖義男. (1993). 公平交易法之註釋研究 系列(一). 行政院公平交易委員會線代啟示錄. (2013). 線代膠囊──正交投影矩陣. https://ccjou.wordpress.com/2013/05/07/%E7%B7%9A%E4%BB%A3%E8%86%A0%E5%9B%8A%E2%94%80%E2%94%80%E6%AD%A3%E4%BA%A4%E6%8A%95%E5%BD%B1%E7%9F%A9%E9%99%A3/ zh_TW dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.6814/NCCU202200733 en_US
