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題名 台灣基本工資與一般工資關係之研究
The Study of Relationship between Basic Wage and General Wages in Taiwan作者 黃俊傑
Huang, Jyun-Jie貢獻者 黃仁德<br>蕭明福
黃俊傑
Huang, Jyun-Jie關鍵詞 基本工資
一般工資
共整合分析
向量誤差修正模型
Basic wage
General wages
Cointegration
Vector error correction model日期 2023 上傳時間 2-Aug-2023 13:41:13 (UTC+8) 摘要 在薪資成長緩慢的現今社會，基本工資是否可用以推升一般工資水準，是大家所關心的一個議題，值得吾人對其進行探討。本文針對2006至2021年基本工資頻繁調整的這段時間，計量分析基本工資調整對各產業一般工資的影響。我們將產業分為全體非農產業、工業及其細項產業、及服務業及其細項產業，一共13種產業，各產業一般工資為被解釋變數，基本工資、失業率、消費者物價指數、及勞動生產力指數為解釋變數，以共整合分析、向量誤差修正模型、及格蘭傑因果檢定，探究一般工資與基本工資之間的長、短期關係及因果關係。共整合分析估計結果顯示，基本工資調升僅對低薪或是相對低薪產業(住宿及餐飲業、批發及零售業、支援服務業)的一般工資有推升效果，對大多數的高薪、全體非農產業、及工業的一般工資不具推升效果。向量誤差修正模型估計結果顯示，當一般工資偏離長期均衡值時，除了少數產業 (營建工程業、服務業、運輸及倉儲業、醫療及社工業) 外，大多數產業的一般工資皆會向基本工資等解釋變數所決定的長期均衡值收斂、調整。格蘭傑因果檢定結果顯示，除了金融及保險業為雙向因果關係外，其他產業的一般工資與基本工資皆不存在互為因果的關係。本文的實證結果顯示，基本工資的調升將會推升低薪產業的一般工資，但對於高薪產業、工業、及全體非農產業的一般工資則無顯著的影響，這樣的結果與大多數國內外的研究結果是相符的。準此，我國政府可以基本工資為政策工具來推升低薪產業的工資水準，但對於全體非農產業工資的提升，單靠基本工資的調整恐力有未逮。
In today’s society, where salary growth is slow, the question of whether the basic wage can be used to boost the general wage level is a topic of concern for many people. This study focuses on the period from 2006 to 2021, during which the basic wage was frequently adjusted, and quantitatively analyzes the impact of basic wage adjustments on the general wages of various industries. We use thirteen industries, including all non-agricultural industries, industrial sectors and their sub-sectors, and service industries and their sub-sectors. The general wage in each industry is the dependent variable, while the basic wage, unemployment rate, consumer price index, and labor productivity index are the independent variables. We employ cointegration analysis, vector error correction models, and Granger causality tests to explore the long-term and short-term relationships as well as causal relationships between general wages and the basic wage.The results of the cointegration analysis show that basic wage adjustments only have a positive effect on the general wages of low-wage or relatively low-wage industries, but they do not have a significant impact on the general wages of most high-wage industries, all non-agricultural industries, and the industrial sector. The results of the vector error correction models indicate that when general wages deviate from their long-term equilibrium value, except for a few industries, the general wages of most industries will converge and adjust towards the long-term equilibrium value determined by the independent variables, including the basic wage. The results of the Granger causality tests indicate that except for the finance and insurance industry, which exhibits a bidirectional causal relationship, there is no causal relationship between general wages and the basic wage in other industries.The empirical results of this study demonstrate that raising the basic wage will increase the general wages of low-wage industries, but it has no significant impact on the general wages of high-wage industries, the industrial sector, and all non-agricultural industries. This finding is consistent with the majority of domestic and international research results. Therefore, the government can use the basic wage as a policy tool to raise the wage levels in low-wage industries, but relying solely on basic wage adjustments may not be sufficient to improve the wages level in all non-agricultural industries.參考文獻 吳惠林(1998)，《1998年基本工資經濟效果評估》。台北: 行政院勞工委員會。吳榮義、林忠正、陳淑美 (1991)，《基本工資之調整評估及近年來薪資與生產力互動關係之研究》。台北: 行政院勞工委員會。莊美娟(1996)，〈台灣地區工資壓力與勞力短缺問題之研究〉，國立政治大學勞工研究所碩士論文。黃仁德 (2001)，《九十年基本工資經濟效果評估》。台北: 行政院勞工委員會。黃仁德 (1995)，〈台灣地區基本工資對勞動市場的衝擊效果評估〉，《勞資關係論叢》，3，頁29-56。楊子霆（2018），〈經濟成長、薪資停滯？初探台灣實質薪資與勞動生產力成長脫勾之成 因〉，《經濟論文》，46:2，頁263-322。劉泰英、王琬貞、鄭政秉 (1992)，《基本工資之調整評估及勞動力與薪資、基本工資互動關係之研究》。台北: 行政院勞工委員會。Ahlfeldt, G. M., R. Duncan, and S. Tobias (2018), “The Regional Effects of Germany’s National Minimum Wage,” Economics Letters, 172:1, pp. 127-130.Autor, D. H., A. Manning, and C. L. Smith ( 2016), “The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to US Wage Inequality over Three Decades: A Reassessment,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8:1, pp. 58-99.Baskaya, Y. S. and Y. Rubinstein (2012), “Using Federal Minimum Wages to Identify the Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment and Earnings Across U.S. States,” https://www.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/atoms/files/brmw_yrubinstein.pdfBhorat, H., R. Kanbur, and N. Mayet (2013), “The Impact of Sectoral Minimum Wage Laws on Employment, Wages, and Hours of Work in South Africa,” working paper , NO. 180096, Department of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University.Boeri, T., P. Garibaldi, and M. Ribeiro (2011), “The Lighthouse Effect and Beyond,” Review of Income and Wealth, 57:1, pp. 54-78.Bossler, M. and H. D. Gerner (2020), “Employment Effects of the New German MinimumWage: Evidence from Establishment-Level Microdata,” Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 73:5, pp. 1070-1094.Budd, J. W. and Y. Nho (1997), “Testing for a Structural Change in U.S. Wage Determination,” Industrial Relations, 36:2, pp. 160-177.Card, D. and A. B. Krueger (1994), “Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania,” American Economic Review, 84:4, pp. 772-793.Carneiro, F. G. and J. R. Faria (1997), “ Causality between the Minimum Wage and Other Wages,” Applied Economics Letters, 4:8, pp. 507-510.Cengiz, D., A. Dube, A. Lindner, and B. Zipperer (2019), “The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134:3, pp. 1405-1454.Clark, J. (1899), The Distribution of Wealth. New York: Macmillan.Clemens, J. and M. Wither (2019), “The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of Effects on the Employment and Income Trajectories of Low-Skilled Workers,” Journal of Public Economics, 170:3, pp. 53-67.Dinkelman, T. and V. Ranchhod (2012), “Evidence on the Impact of Minimum Wage Laws in an Informal Sector: Domestic Workers in South Africa,” Journal of Development Economics, 99:1, pp. 27-45.Doeringer, P. B. and M. J. Piore (1971), “Internal Labor Markets and Manpower Analysis, Routledge,” https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003069720.Dube, A., T. W. Lester, and M. Reich (2010), “Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 92:4, pp. 945-964.Engle, R. F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” Econometrica, 55:2, pp. 251-276.Fang, T. and C. Lin (2015), “Minimum Wages and Employment in China,” IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 4:1, pp. 1-30.Friedman, M. (1962), Capitalism and Freedom. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Friedman, M. (1968), “The Role of Monetary Policy,” American Economic Review, 58:1, pp. 1-17.Gindling, T. H. and K. Terrell (2009),“ Minimum Wages, Wages and Employment in Various Sectors in Honduras,” Labour Economics, 16:3, pp. 291-303.Gordon, R. (1988), “The Role of Wages in the Inflation Process,” American Economic Review, 78:2, pp. 276-283.Gramlich, E. M. (1976), “Impact of Minimum Wages on Other Wages, Employment, and Family Incomes,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 7:2, pp. 409-462.Granger, C. and P. Newbold (1974), “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics,” Journal of Econometrics, 2:2, pp. 111-120.Grossman, J. B. (1983), “The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Other Wages,” Journal of Human Resources, 18:3, pp. 359-378Harrison, A. and J. Scorse (2010), “Multinationals and Anti-Sweatshop Activism,” American Economic Review, 100:1, pp. 247-273.Hohberg, M. and J. Lay (2015), “The Impact of Minimum Wages on Informal and Formal Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Indonesia,” IZA Journal of Labor and Development, 4:1, pp. 1-25.Jardim, E., M., C. Long, R. Plotnick, E. Inwegen, J. Vigdor, and H. Wething ( 2022), “Minimum-Wage Increases and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence from Seattle,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 14:2, pp. 263-314.Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—with Applications to the Demand for Money,” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52:2, pp. 169-210.Kaitz, H. (1970), “Experience of the Past: The National Minimum, in Youth Unemployment and Minimum Wages,” Bulletin 1657, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, pp. 30-54.Lopresti, J. W. and K. J. Mumford (2016), “Who Benefits from a Minimum Wage Increase,” Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 69:5, pp. 1171-1190.Lütkepohl, H. (2005), New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Berlin: Springer Science and Business Media.Machin, S., A. Manning, and L. Rahman (2003), “Where the Minimum Wage Bites Hard: Introduction of Minimum Wages to a Low Wage Sector,” Journal of the European Economic Association, 1:1, pp. 154-180.Mincer, J. (1976), “Unemployment Effects of Minimum Wage,” Journal of Political Economy, 84:4, pp. 87-104.Neumark, D., M. Schweitzer, and W. Wascher (2004), “Minimum Wage Effects throughout the Wage Distribution,” Journal of Human Resources, 39:2, pp. 425-450.Phelps, E. (1967), “Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment overTime,” Economica, 34:135, pp. 254-281.Phillips, A. W. (1958), “The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957,” Economica, 25:100, pp. 283-299.Rama, M. (2001), “The Consequences of Doubling the Minimum Wage: The Case of Indonesia,” Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 54:4, pp. 864-881.Said, S. E. and D. A. Dickey (1984), “Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order,” Biometrika, 71:3, pp. 599-607.Toda, H. Y. and P. C. B. Phillips (1993), “Vector Autoregressions and Causality,” Econometrica, 61:6, pp. 1367-1393.Welch, F. (1976), “Employment Quotas for Minorities,” Journal of Political Economy, 84:4, pp. 105-141.Welch, F. (1974), “Minimum Wage Legislation in the United States,” Economic Inquiry, 12:3, pp. 285-318.Wolfson, P. and D. Belman (2004), “The Minimum Wage,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 22:3, pp. 296-311.Wooldridge, J. (2013), Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Stamford: South-Western Cengage Learning. 描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
109258033資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109258033 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 黃仁德<br>蕭明福 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃俊傑 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Huang, Jyun-Jie en_US dc.creator (作者) 黃俊傑 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Huang, Jyun-Jie en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 2-Aug-2023 13:41:13 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 2-Aug-2023 13:41:13 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 2-Aug-2023 13:41:13 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0109258033 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146470 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 經濟學系 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 109258033 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在薪資成長緩慢的現今社會，基本工資是否可用以推升一般工資水準，是大家所關心的一個議題，值得吾人對其進行探討。本文針對2006至2021年基本工資頻繁調整的這段時間，計量分析基本工資調整對各產業一般工資的影響。我們將產業分為全體非農產業、工業及其細項產業、及服務業及其細項產業，一共13種產業，各產業一般工資為被解釋變數，基本工資、失業率、消費者物價指數、及勞動生產力指數為解釋變數，以共整合分析、向量誤差修正模型、及格蘭傑因果檢定，探究一般工資與基本工資之間的長、短期關係及因果關係。共整合分析估計結果顯示，基本工資調升僅對低薪或是相對低薪產業(住宿及餐飲業、批發及零售業、支援服務業)的一般工資有推升效果，對大多數的高薪、全體非農產業、及工業的一般工資不具推升效果。向量誤差修正模型估計結果顯示，當一般工資偏離長期均衡值時，除了少數產業 (營建工程業、服務業、運輸及倉儲業、醫療及社工業) 外，大多數產業的一般工資皆會向基本工資等解釋變數所決定的長期均衡值收斂、調整。格蘭傑因果檢定結果顯示，除了金融及保險業為雙向因果關係外，其他產業的一般工資與基本工資皆不存在互為因果的關係。本文的實證結果顯示，基本工資的調升將會推升低薪產業的一般工資，但對於高薪產業、工業、及全體非農產業的一般工資則無顯著的影響，這樣的結果與大多數國內外的研究結果是相符的。準此，我國政府可以基本工資為政策工具來推升低薪產業的工資水準，但對於全體非農產業工資的提升，單靠基本工資的調整恐力有未逮。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In today’s society, where salary growth is slow, the question of whether the basic wage can be used to boost the general wage level is a topic of concern for many people. This study focuses on the period from 2006 to 2021, during which the basic wage was frequently adjusted, and quantitatively analyzes the impact of basic wage adjustments on the general wages of various industries. We use thirteen industries, including all non-agricultural industries, industrial sectors and their sub-sectors, and service industries and their sub-sectors. The general wage in each industry is the dependent variable, while the basic wage, unemployment rate, consumer price index, and labor productivity index are the independent variables. We employ cointegration analysis, vector error correction models, and Granger causality tests to explore the long-term and short-term relationships as well as causal relationships between general wages and the basic wage.The results of the cointegration analysis show that basic wage adjustments only have a positive effect on the general wages of low-wage or relatively low-wage industries, but they do not have a significant impact on the general wages of most high-wage industries, all non-agricultural industries, and the industrial sector. The results of the vector error correction models indicate that when general wages deviate from their long-term equilibrium value, except for a few industries, the general wages of most industries will converge and adjust towards the long-term equilibrium value determined by the independent variables, including the basic wage. The results of the Granger causality tests indicate that except for the finance and insurance industry, which exhibits a bidirectional causal relationship, there is no causal relationship between general wages and the basic wage in other industries.The empirical results of this study demonstrate that raising the basic wage will increase the general wages of low-wage industries, but it has no significant impact on the general wages of high-wage industries, the industrial sector, and all non-agricultural industries. This finding is consistent with the majority of domestic and international research results. Therefore, the government can use the basic wage as a policy tool to raise the wage levels in low-wage industries, but relying solely on basic wage adjustments may not be sufficient to improve the wages level in all non-agricultural industries. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 摘要 iiAbstract iii目次 iv表次 v第一章 緒論 1第二章 文獻回顧 4第三章 台灣基本工資的調整與一般工資的變化 9第一節 基本工資調整沿革 9第二節 基本工資調整後各產業工資與受僱勞工人數的變化 9第四章 實證模型 18第五章 實證過程與結果 22第一節 資料來源與特性 22第二節 實證過程與結果 25一、單根檢定 26二、遞延期數選定 29三、共整合迴歸結果 29四、向量誤差修正模型估計結果 47五、向量誤差修正模型下的格蘭傑因果關係檢定 53第六章 結論 55參考文獻 57 zh_TW dc.format.extent 3136086 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109258033 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 基本工資 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 一般工資 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 共整合分析 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 向量誤差修正模型 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) Basic wage en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) General wages en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cointegration en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) Vector error correction model en_US dc.title (題名) 台灣基本工資與一般工資關係之研究 zh_TW dc.title (題名) The Study of Relationship between Basic Wage and General Wages in Taiwan en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳惠林(1998)，《1998年基本工資經濟效果評估》。台北: 行政院勞工委員會。吳榮義、林忠正、陳淑美 (1991)，《基本工資之調整評估及近年來薪資與生產力互動關係之研究》。台北: 行政院勞工委員會。莊美娟(1996)，〈台灣地區工資壓力與勞力短缺問題之研究〉，國立政治大學勞工研究所碩士論文。黃仁德 (2001)，《九十年基本工資經濟效果評估》。台北: 行政院勞工委員會。黃仁德 (1995)，〈台灣地區基本工資對勞動市場的衝擊效果評估〉，《勞資關係論叢》，3，頁29-56。楊子霆（2018），〈經濟成長、薪資停滯？初探台灣實質薪資與勞動生產力成長脫勾之成 因〉，《經濟論文》，46:2，頁263-322。劉泰英、王琬貞、鄭政秉 (1992)，《基本工資之調整評估及勞動力與薪資、基本工資互動關係之研究》。台北: 行政院勞工委員會。Ahlfeldt, G. M., R. Duncan, and S. Tobias (2018), “The Regional Effects of Germany’s National Minimum Wage,” Economics Letters, 172:1, pp. 127-130.Autor, D. H., A. Manning, and C. L. Smith ( 2016), “The Contribution of the Minimum Wage to US Wage Inequality over Three Decades: A Reassessment,” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8:1, pp. 58-99.Baskaya, Y. S. and Y. Rubinstein (2012), “Using Federal Minimum Wages to Identify the Impact of Minimum Wages on Employment and Earnings Across U.S. States,” https://www.ed.ac.uk/sites/default/files/atoms/files/brmw_yrubinstein.pdfBhorat, H., R. Kanbur, and N. Mayet (2013), “The Impact of Sectoral Minimum Wage Laws on Employment, Wages, and Hours of Work in South Africa,” working paper , NO. 180096, Department of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University.Boeri, T., P. Garibaldi, and M. Ribeiro (2011), “The Lighthouse Effect and Beyond,” Review of Income and Wealth, 57:1, pp. 54-78.Bossler, M. and H. D. 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