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題名 烏克蘭安全政策之研究 — 新古典現實主義的視角
A Study on Ukraine’s Security Policy: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective作者 范姜承宏
Fan Chiang, Cheng-Hung貢獻者 林永芳
Lin, Yung-Fang
范姜承宏
Fan Chiang, Cheng-Hung關鍵詞 威脅
戰略環境
抗衡
扈從
避險
threat
strategic environment
balancing
bandwagoning
hedging日期 2023 上傳時間 1-Sep-2023 16:35:36 (UTC+8) 摘要 1991年，持續長達近半世紀的冷戰因蘇聯解體而終結，前蘇聯的加盟國紛紛於這波浪潮中宣佈獨立，烏克蘭亦是其中之一。儘管烏克蘭成為一個新獨立的主權國家，其東側的最大鄰國、同時亦是蘇聯的最大繼承國—俄羅斯卻仍不時對其提出「準主權要求」，而於西側則要面對冷戰終結後仍不斷向東擴張的北大西洋公約組織。因此，對於烏克蘭這個「夾於兩強權之間的中小型國家」而言，獨立後的最大挑戰即是在無政府狀態且權力結構不斷變動的國際環境下維持生存與安全。隨著2014年克里米亞危機、頓巴斯衝突與2022年俄烏戰爭的爆發，上述挑戰則更加嚴峻。本論文旨在以結合國際結構與國內分析層次的新古典現實主義作為理論架構，研究烏克蘭自獨立後至今六位總統的安全政策性質、轉變與延續。本論文指出，烏克蘭的六位總統都將俄羅斯視為威脅，差別僅在於此一威脅的清晰與緊迫程度，這反映於烏克蘭歷任總統在安全政策方面皆未曾「扈從」俄國，而是搖擺於對俄「抗衡」與「避險」之上。當來自俄羅斯的威脅較模糊、緩和時，烏克蘭的安全政策將主要受到國內而非結構因素的影響；而當來自俄羅斯的威脅轉趨清晰、緊迫時，烏克蘭的安全政策才將更傾向符合體系結構給予的刺激。
In 1991, the Cold War that had lasted for nearly half a century came to an end with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, leading to the declaration of independence by various Soviet republics, including Ukraine. Despite becoming a newly independent sovereign state, Ukraine found itself situated between two great powers. On Ukraine’s eastern side, its largest neighbor and the primary successor to the Soviet Union—Russian Federation—continued to assert “quasi-sovereign claims” over Ukraine. Meanwhile, on its western side, Ukraine faced the enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization following the end of the Cold War. Thus, for Ukraine—a medium-small state situated between two great powers—the key challenge after its independence was to ensure its survival and security within an international anarchy characterized by a continuously shifting power structure. This challenge intensified with the outbreak of events such as the 2014 Crimea crisis, the Donbas conflict, and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.By employing a neoclassical realist approach—a theoretical framework that combines international structural analysis and domestic analysis—this thesis aims to investigate the nature, change and continuity of Ukraine’s security policy under its six presidents since independence. The thesis argues that all six Ukrainian presidents have regarded Russia as a threat, differing primarily in the clarity and imminence of this threat. This argument is also reflected in the fact that none of the Ukrainian presidents elected after its independence have ever bandwagoned with Russia; instead, they have oscillated between “balancing” and “hedging” in their approach toward Russia. When threats from Russia are vague and less imminent, Ukraine’s security policy are primarily influenced by domestic factors rather than structural ones. 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國立政治大學
俄羅斯研究所
110263001資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110263001 資料類型 thesis dc.contributor.advisor 林永芳 zh_TW dc.contributor.advisor Lin, Yung-Fang en_US dc.contributor.author (Authors) 范姜承宏 zh_TW dc.contributor.author (Authors) Fan Chiang, Cheng-Hung en_US dc.creator (作者) 范姜承宏 zh_TW dc.creator (作者) Fan Chiang, Cheng-Hung en_US dc.date (日期) 2023 en_US dc.date.accessioned 1-Sep-2023 16:35:36 (UTC+8) - dc.date.available 1-Sep-2023 16:35:36 (UTC+8) - dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 1-Sep-2023 16:35:36 (UTC+8) - dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0110263001 en_US dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/147327 - dc.description (描述) 碩士 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 俄羅斯研究所 zh_TW dc.description (描述) 110263001 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) 1991年，持續長達近半世紀的冷戰因蘇聯解體而終結，前蘇聯的加盟國紛紛於這波浪潮中宣佈獨立，烏克蘭亦是其中之一。儘管烏克蘭成為一個新獨立的主權國家，其東側的最大鄰國、同時亦是蘇聯的最大繼承國—俄羅斯卻仍不時對其提出「準主權要求」，而於西側則要面對冷戰終結後仍不斷向東擴張的北大西洋公約組織。因此，對於烏克蘭這個「夾於兩強權之間的中小型國家」而言，獨立後的最大挑戰即是在無政府狀態且權力結構不斷變動的國際環境下維持生存與安全。隨著2014年克里米亞危機、頓巴斯衝突與2022年俄烏戰爭的爆發，上述挑戰則更加嚴峻。本論文旨在以結合國際結構與國內分析層次的新古典現實主義作為理論架構，研究烏克蘭自獨立後至今六位總統的安全政策性質、轉變與延續。本論文指出，烏克蘭的六位總統都將俄羅斯視為威脅，差別僅在於此一威脅的清晰與緊迫程度，這反映於烏克蘭歷任總統在安全政策方面皆未曾「扈從」俄國，而是搖擺於對俄「抗衡」與「避險」之上。當來自俄羅斯的威脅較模糊、緩和時，烏克蘭的安全政策將主要受到國內而非結構因素的影響；而當來自俄羅斯的威脅轉趨清晰、緊迫時，烏克蘭的安全政策才將更傾向符合體系結構給予的刺激。 zh_TW dc.description.abstract (摘要) In 1991, the Cold War that had lasted for nearly half a century came to an end with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, leading to the declaration of independence by various Soviet republics, including Ukraine. Despite becoming a newly independent sovereign state, Ukraine found itself situated between two great powers. On Ukraine’s eastern side, its largest neighbor and the primary successor to the Soviet Union—Russian Federation—continued to assert “quasi-sovereign claims” over Ukraine. Meanwhile, on its western side, Ukraine faced the enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization following the end of the Cold War. Thus, for Ukraine—a medium-small state situated between two great powers—the key challenge after its independence was to ensure its survival and security within an international anarchy characterized by a continuously shifting power structure. This challenge intensified with the outbreak of events such as the 2014 Crimea crisis, the Donbas conflict, and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.By employing a neoclassical realist approach—a theoretical framework that combines international structural analysis and domestic analysis—this thesis aims to investigate the nature, change and continuity of Ukraine’s security policy under its six presidents since independence. The thesis argues that all six Ukrainian presidents have regarded Russia as a threat, differing primarily in the clarity and imminence of this threat. This argument is also reflected in the fact that none of the Ukrainian presidents elected after its independence have ever bandwagoned with Russia; instead, they have oscillated between “balancing” and “hedging” in their approach toward Russia. When threats from Russia are vague and less imminent, Ukraine’s security policy are primarily influenced by domestic factors rather than structural ones. However, when threats from Russia become clearer and more imminent, Ukraine’s security policy tends to be more responsive with the stimuli from the system structure. en_US dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究動機與問題 1第二節 文獻回顧 2第三節 研究途徑與分析架構 10第四節 研究範圍與限制 18第五節 章節安排 19第二章 1991-2005年烏克蘭的安全政策 21第一節 冷戰後的低威脅清晰度與包容性戰略環境 22第二節 Kravchuk的安全政策與國內因素 26第三節 Kuchma的安全政策與國內因素 32第四節 小結 38第三章 2005-2013年烏克蘭的安全政策 39第一節 戰略環境與威脅清晰度轉變的過渡期 39第二節 Yushchenko的安全政策與國內因素 50第三節 Yanukovych的安全政策與國內因素 55第四節 小結 59第四章 2014年至今的烏克蘭安全政策 61第一節 廣場革命、後續事件及其對戰略環境之影響 62第二節 Poroshenko的安全政策與國內因素 66第三節 Zelenskyy的安全政策、俄烏戰爭爆發及其影響 74第四節 小結 81第五章 結論 83參考書目 92 zh_TW dc.format.extent 2916145 bytes - dc.format.mimetype application/pdf - dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110263001 en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) 威脅 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 戰略環境 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 抗衡 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 扈從 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) 避險 zh_TW dc.subject (關鍵詞) threat en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) strategic environment en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) balancing en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) bandwagoning en_US dc.subject (關鍵詞) hedging en_US dc.title (題名) 烏克蘭安全政策之研究 — 新古典現實主義的視角 zh_TW dc.title (題名) A Study on Ukraine’s Security Policy: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective en_US dc.type (資料類型) thesis en_US dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、中文部分包宗和，2011，〈結構現實主義的論點、辯述與反思〉，包宗和（編），《國際關係理論》，臺北：五南出版，頁49-68。甘逸驊，2003，〈北約東擴—軍事聯盟的變遷與政治意涵〉，《問題與研究》，42(4): 1-23。吳日強，2007，〈美國在東歐部署反導彈系統針對誰？〉，《國際政治科學》，(3): 97-129。吳玉山，1997，《抗衡或扈從—兩岸關係新詮》，臺北：正中書局。吳玉山，2007，〈顏色革命的許諾與侷限〉，《臺灣民主季刊》，4(2): 67-112。吳玉山，2016，〈半總統制與策略性修憲〉，《政治科學論叢》，(69): 1-26。吳玉山，2020，〈我們與戰爭的距離有多遠？霸權間的小國戰略〉，中央研究院「研之有物」網頁，https://research.sinica.edu.tw/global-strategies-pivot-hedger-partner/，檢索日期：2023/06/24。吳崇涵，2018，〈中美競逐影響力下的臺灣避險策略〉，《歐美研究》，48(4): 513-547。吳叡人譯，2010，《想像的共同體：民族主義的起源與散布》，臺北：時報出版。譯自Benedict Anderson. 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