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題名 以自由現金流量折現模型評價手機代工廠商 — 以華寶通訊為例
Valuing Handset OEM/ODM Companies with DCF Model — A Case Study of Compal Communication Inc.
作者 張善文
Chang, Shan-Wen
貢獻者 郭更生<br>吳啟銘
Kuo, Geng-Sheng<br>Wu, Eric
張善文
Chang, Shan-Wen
關鍵詞 企業評價
自由現金流量折現模型
手機產業
business valuation
DCF model
handset industry
日期 2005
上傳時間 11-Sep-2009 16:46:59 (UTC+8)
摘要 對於企業評價通常需要採取四個重要的步驟。首先是了解公司的實質營運狀況,包括對於公司的產業、競爭地位與公司策略。這些產業的資訊會結合公司的財部報表去推斷未來的公司營運。其次是根據過去的來估公司盈收能力以及財務狀況。第三,因為在台灣缺乏夠多的相似公司來做比較所以本研究採取自由現金流量折線模式來做股東權益的評價。如果對於公司能夠有深入的了解可以幫助評價的品質。最後是根據產業分析以及企業評價作出經營或是投資的決定,以增加個案公司未來的價值。
      在本論文中提出一企業評價架構,而個案公司以此一架構來驗證其正確性。共有六個關鍵的區塊來實踐此一架構,其中包含了產業分析、會計報表分析、財務分析、競爭策略分析、預測未來營運以及企業評價等。值得注意的事,這六個區塊彼此相互影響。
      本研究的企業評價最主要的應用為選擇股票,股票分析師在市場中,希望根據本身公司股價或是其他相似公司的股價,找出被正確、高估或是低估的股票。企業評價的工具更可以用來評估公司的重大營運決定,例如購併、收購、部門撤資、部門分割、管理買下以及槓桿買下。此外一個關心股東權益價值最大化的公司也可以利用此一評價工具評估其他的策略替代方案。
For business valuation, there are four necessary steps to undertake. These steps include that the underlying business of the firm must be understood comprehensively first. This involves evaluating industry prospects, competitive position, and corporate strategies. The information is used together with financial statement analysis to forecast performance. Next, company earning power will be estimated based on historical performance and adopted strategy within the competitive environment including forecasts of sales, earnings, and financial position. Third, in this study the DCF model is chosen to evaluate the equity value due to lack of similar companies available in Taiwan. An in-depth understanding of the business and an ability to forecast the performance of a company help determine the quality of valuation efforts. Finally, based on the analysis of industry and business valuation, some investment or business decisions can be undertaken to improve the future values of the case company.
      The architecture of implement the business valuation is proposed in this study. The case company is employed to verify the validity of this architecture. There are six major function block to construct this architecture, including industry analysis, accounting analysis, financial analysis, competitive strategy analysis, forecasting prospective performance and business valuation. It is noted that these function blocks influence one anther. Industry analysis is the beginning of valuation in this architecture.
      Stock selection is the primary application of the business valuation presented in this study. Equity analysts attempt to identify securities as fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued in the market, relative to either their own market price or the prices of comparable securities. Valuation tools can be used to assess the impact of corporate events such as mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, spin-offs, MBOs, or LBOs. In addition, the company concerned with maximizing shareholder value must evaluate the impact of alternative strategies on share value.
參考文獻 Bruno H. Solnik, & Dennis W. McLeavey. (2003). International investments (5th ed.). Boston, Mass.: Pearson Education.
Bruno Solnik, & Dennis McLeavey. (2004). International investments: Addison Wesley.
Chia-Chin Wu. (2002). The applications of corporation evaluation methods: The example of the selected company.
Chi-Chin Yang. (2004). A study of comparisons with valuation models and value Drivers─Evidences from fortune top 100 enterprises.
Chieh-Ju Han. (2002). A system dynamic approach to the study of enterprise’s financial forecast and financial diagnosis.
Chin-Chia Wu. (2004). Business Valuation:An empirical study of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.
Ga-lin Chang. (2003). Using analytic network process for the application of the valuation model: A case of Taiwan’s TFT-LCD industry.
Gemma Tedesco. (2005). WiMAX: Wireless super-chip: In-Stat.
George Kress, & John Snyder. (1994). Forecasting and market analysis techniques : A practical approach. Westport, Conn: Quorum Books.
Gerald I. White, Ashwinpaul C. Sondhi, & Dov Fried. (2003). The analysis and use of financial statements (3rd edition ed.): Wiley.
Ho Su-su. (2002). A study on application of financial ratio analysis onto business diagnosis-taking listed & OTC firms in Taiwan, for instance.
Hong-Cheng Lin. (2000). A case study on the valuation of AOL-Time Warner.
Jeffrey C. Hooke. (1999). Security analysis on Wall Street: A comprehensive guide to today`s valuation methods (University ed.). New York: Wiley.
Joey Cheng, Henry King, Donald Lu, Emily Chang, & Robert Chen. (2006). Taiwan communications technology: Wireless in the middle of a secular growth trend: Goldman Sachs.
John D. Stowe, Tomas R. Robinson, Jerald E. Pinto, & Dennis W. McLeavey. (2002). Analysis of equity investments: Valuation, AIMR.
Kevin Burden, Randy Giusto, David Linsalata, Ramon T. Llamas, & Allen M. Leibovitch. (2005). Worldwide mobile phone 2005-2009 forecast update and 1H05 vender analysis: IDC.
Krishna G. Palepu, Paul M. Healy, & Victor L. Bernard. (2004). Business analysis & valuation: Using financial statements (3rd ed.). Mason, Ohio: Thomson/South-Western College Pub.
Michael E. Porter. (1998). Competitive advantage: Creating and sustaining superior performance: With a new introduction (1st Free Press ed.). New York: Free Press.
Shu-Hui Huang. (2003). The evaluation and dynamic adjustment of stock price : The case of Taiwan`s telecommunication industry.
Spyros G. Makridakis, Steven C. Wheelwright, & Rob J. Hyndman. (1998). Forecasting : Methods and applications (3rd ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Steven Lin. (2000). VALUATION OF INTERNET COMPANIES---- A CASE STUSY OF YAHOO!
Sung-Ping Lee. (2004). Effect of efficiency to firm’s market value and stock Price-A case of TFT-LCD industry.
Tim Koller, Marc Goedhart, David Wessels, & Thomas E. Copeland. (2005). Valuation : Measuring and managing the value of companies (4th ed.). Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley & Sons.
Tsai Yu-Chia. (2004). A study on prediction model of corporate financial distress.
Tsung-Yu LIn. (2002). The study of business performance measurement model.
Wan-Hsin Huang. (2001). Discounted free cash flow and valuation of internet companies: A case study of yahoo!
Yi-Chung Shen. (2004). A study on the business valuation & value creation strategies of TFT LCD industry in Taiwan─focus on AUO、CPT、QDI.
Yin-Ho Liao. (2003). Value creation and valuation of the Yulon Motor Co.
Yu-Chin Lai. (2005). Make analysis and valuation of the United Epitaxy Company, LTD.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
企業管理研究所
93355061
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093355061
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 郭更生<br>吳啟銘zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Kuo, Geng-Sheng<br>Wu, Ericen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 張善文zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chang, Shan-Wenen_US
dc.creator (作者) 張善文zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chang, Shan-Wenen_US
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 11-Sep-2009 16:46:59 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 11-Sep-2009 16:46:59 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 11-Sep-2009 16:46:59 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093355061en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/29879-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 企業管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93355061zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 對於企業評價通常需要採取四個重要的步驟。首先是了解公司的實質營運狀況,包括對於公司的產業、競爭地位與公司策略。這些產業的資訊會結合公司的財部報表去推斷未來的公司營運。其次是根據過去的來估公司盈收能力以及財務狀況。第三,因為在台灣缺乏夠多的相似公司來做比較所以本研究採取自由現金流量折線模式來做股東權益的評價。如果對於公司能夠有深入的了解可以幫助評價的品質。最後是根據產業分析以及企業評價作出經營或是投資的決定,以增加個案公司未來的價值。
      在本論文中提出一企業評價架構,而個案公司以此一架構來驗證其正確性。共有六個關鍵的區塊來實踐此一架構,其中包含了產業分析、會計報表分析、財務分析、競爭策略分析、預測未來營運以及企業評價等。值得注意的事,這六個區塊彼此相互影響。
      本研究的企業評價最主要的應用為選擇股票,股票分析師在市場中,希望根據本身公司股價或是其他相似公司的股價,找出被正確、高估或是低估的股票。企業評價的工具更可以用來評估公司的重大營運決定,例如購併、收購、部門撤資、部門分割、管理買下以及槓桿買下。此外一個關心股東權益價值最大化的公司也可以利用此一評價工具評估其他的策略替代方案。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) For business valuation, there are four necessary steps to undertake. These steps include that the underlying business of the firm must be understood comprehensively first. This involves evaluating industry prospects, competitive position, and corporate strategies. The information is used together with financial statement analysis to forecast performance. Next, company earning power will be estimated based on historical performance and adopted strategy within the competitive environment including forecasts of sales, earnings, and financial position. Third, in this study the DCF model is chosen to evaluate the equity value due to lack of similar companies available in Taiwan. An in-depth understanding of the business and an ability to forecast the performance of a company help determine the quality of valuation efforts. Finally, based on the analysis of industry and business valuation, some investment or business decisions can be undertaken to improve the future values of the case company.
      The architecture of implement the business valuation is proposed in this study. The case company is employed to verify the validity of this architecture. There are six major function block to construct this architecture, including industry analysis, accounting analysis, financial analysis, competitive strategy analysis, forecasting prospective performance and business valuation. It is noted that these function blocks influence one anther. Industry analysis is the beginning of valuation in this architecture.
      Stock selection is the primary application of the business valuation presented in this study. Equity analysts attempt to identify securities as fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued in the market, relative to either their own market price or the prices of comparable securities. Valuation tools can be used to assess the impact of corporate events such as mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, spin-offs, MBOs, or LBOs. In addition, the company concerned with maximizing shareholder value must evaluate the impact of alternative strategies on share value.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 摘 要 I
     ABSTRACT II
     ACKNOWLEDGEMENT IV
     CONTENT INDEX V
     FIGURE INDEX VII
     TABLE INDEX VIII
     TABLE INDEX VIII
     CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1
     1.1 RESEARCH MOTIVATION & OBJECTIVES 1
     1.2 SCOPE & LIMITATION OF RESEARCH 2
     1.3 RESEARCH METHOD 3
     1.4 RESEARCH FRAMEWORK 3
     CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEWS 4
     2.1 VALUATION MODEL 4
     2.2 INCOME-BASED VALUATION MODEL 6
     2.3 MARKET-BASED VALUATION MODEL 15
     2.4 PRACTICAL VALUATION FOR ODM COMPANIES 23
     CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY 26
     3.1 ARCHITECTURE OF VALUATION 26
     3.2 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 27
     3.3 STRATEGY ANALYSIS 32
     3.4 ACCOUNTING ANALYSIS 36
     3.5 ANALYZING HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 37
     3.6 FORECASTING FUTURE PERFORMANCE 43
     CHAPTER 4 VALUATION OF CASE COMPANY 47
     4.1 INDUSTRY ANALYSIS OF HANDSET 47
     4.2 INTRODUCTION OF CASE COMPANY 53
     4.3 ANALYSIS OF COMPETITION 59
     4.4 ACCOUNTING ANALYSIS OF CASE COMPANY 65
     4.5 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF CASE COMPANY 72
     CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS 90
     5.1 CONCLUSION 90
     5.2 SUGGESTION 91
     5.3 CONTRIBUTION 92
     5.4 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT 92
     REFERENCE 94
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093355061en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 企業評價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 自由現金流量折現模型zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 手機產業zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) business valuationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) DCF modelen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) handset industryen_US
dc.title (題名) 以自由現金流量折現模型評價手機代工廠商 — 以華寶通訊為例zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Valuing Handset OEM/ODM Companies with DCF Model — A Case Study of Compal Communication Inc.en_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bruno H. Solnik, & Dennis W. McLeavey. (2003). International investments (5th ed.). Boston, Mass.: Pearson Education.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bruno Solnik, & Dennis McLeavey. (2004). International investments: Addison Wesley.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chia-Chin Wu. (2002). The applications of corporation evaluation methods: The example of the selected company.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chi-Chin Yang. (2004). A study of comparisons with valuation models and value Drivers─Evidences from fortune top 100 enterprises.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chieh-Ju Han. (2002). A system dynamic approach to the study of enterprise’s financial forecast and financial diagnosis.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chin-Chia Wu. (2004). Business Valuation:An empirical study of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ga-lin Chang. (2003). Using analytic network process for the application of the valuation model: A case of Taiwan’s TFT-LCD industry.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gemma Tedesco. (2005). WiMAX: Wireless super-chip: In-Stat.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) George Kress, & John Snyder. (1994). Forecasting and market analysis techniques : A practical approach. Westport, Conn: Quorum Books.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gerald I. White, Ashwinpaul C. Sondhi, & Dov Fried. (2003). The analysis and use of financial statements (3rd edition ed.): Wiley.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ho Su-su. (2002). A study on application of financial ratio analysis onto business diagnosis-taking listed & OTC firms in Taiwan, for instance.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hong-Cheng Lin. (2000). A case study on the valuation of AOL-Time Warner.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Jeffrey C. Hooke. (1999). Security analysis on Wall Street: A comprehensive guide to today`s valuation methods (University ed.). New York: Wiley.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Joey Cheng, Henry King, Donald Lu, Emily Chang, & Robert Chen. (2006). Taiwan communications technology: Wireless in the middle of a secular growth trend: Goldman Sachs.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) John D. Stowe, Tomas R. Robinson, Jerald E. Pinto, & Dennis W. McLeavey. (2002). Analysis of equity investments: Valuation, AIMR.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kevin Burden, Randy Giusto, David Linsalata, Ramon T. Llamas, & Allen M. Leibovitch. (2005). Worldwide mobile phone 2005-2009 forecast update and 1H05 vender analysis: IDC.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Krishna G. Palepu, Paul M. Healy, & Victor L. Bernard. (2004). Business analysis & valuation: Using financial statements (3rd ed.). Mason, Ohio: Thomson/South-Western College Pub.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Michael E. Porter. (1998). Competitive advantage: Creating and sustaining superior performance: With a new introduction (1st Free Press ed.). New York: Free Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shu-Hui Huang. (2003). The evaluation and dynamic adjustment of stock price : The case of Taiwan`s telecommunication industry.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Spyros G. Makridakis, Steven C. Wheelwright, & Rob J. Hyndman. (1998). Forecasting : Methods and applications (3rd ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Steven Lin. (2000). VALUATION OF INTERNET COMPANIES---- A CASE STUSY OF YAHOO!zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Sung-Ping Lee. (2004). Effect of efficiency to firm’s market value and stock Price-A case of TFT-LCD industry.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Tim Koller, Marc Goedhart, David Wessels, & Thomas E. Copeland. (2005). Valuation : Measuring and managing the value of companies (4th ed.). Hoboken, N.J.: John Wiley & Sons.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Tsai Yu-Chia. (2004). A study on prediction model of corporate financial distress.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Tsung-Yu LIn. (2002). The study of business performance measurement model.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wan-Hsin Huang. (2001). Discounted free cash flow and valuation of internet companies: A case study of yahoo!zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Yi-Chung Shen. (2004). A study on the business valuation & value creation strategies of TFT LCD industry in Taiwan─focus on AUO、CPT、QDI.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Yin-Ho Liao. (2003). Value creation and valuation of the Yulon Motor Co.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Yu-Chin Lai. (2005). Make analysis and valuation of the United Epitaxy Company, LTD.zh_TW