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題名 Closed-end Fund Discounts and Investor Sentiment: Evidence from U.K. Investment Trusts
作者 黃伯偉
HUANG, PO-WEI
貢獻者 張元晨
CHANG, YUAN-CHEN
黃伯偉
HUANG, PO-WEI
關鍵詞 共整合
因果檢定
封閉型基金折價
Cointegration
Granger causality test
closed-end fund discounts
日期 2005
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 09:00:53 (UTC+8)
摘要 封閉型基金的掛牌買賣價格,與其投資標的淨資產價值(NAV, net asset value)間,總是存在一定程度的差距,且幾乎為10%~20%的折價現象,被視為財務學上的一種異常(anomaly)。早期研究學者們由經濟理性的角度解釋此種現象,認為是基金管理的績效表現、投資標的流動性或是稅制上的差異等等角度來解釋此一現象,但並沒有獲得一致的結論。
      近期以來,有學者嘗試從行為財務學的角度,認為封閉型基金的折溢價現象及其幅度的變化,是由於投資人情緒(investor sentiment)的波動所造成。除了傳統的迴歸模式,更有不少學者以嚴謹的計量方式分析,例如財務時間序列的許多技巧。本研究即以時間序列之單根檢定(unit root test)、共整合現象檢定(co-integration test)及Granger因果關係檢定(Granger Causality test)等等方式,分析封閉型基金折溢價現象是否由投資人情緒所造成,及其兩者間是否有共整合現象。
      雖然已有部分文獻探討類似議題,但跨國比較分析通常僅限於英、美兩國,且英、美兩國市場連動程度太高,可能影響分析結果的正確性;除此之外,樣本分析期間亦通常不超過十年。本研究以1991-2005年英國掛牌之封閉型基金為研究樣本,並包含投資標的為日本的封閉型基金,進行英國、日本之間的跨國性比較;不但有更足夠的樣本時間長度,亦能驗證是否不同跨國分析亦會有相同結論。
      共整合現象檢定及Granger因果關係檢定大致支持行為財務學的角度。但英國、日本跨國比較的結果,似乎並不完全等同於前述英、美跨國比較的結果。建議後續可從掛牌國與投資標的區域連動程度較低的封閉型基金作為研究方向。
The closed-end funds discounts have been an interesting phenomenon for a long period. Some theories based on economic rationale try to solve the puzzle but fail to get consistent conclusions. Recently some theories based on behavioral finance, such as the investor sentiment hypothesis, have been proposed to solve this puzzle. This study examines the investor sentiment hypothesis based on various time-series tests and finds some interesting results.
      Briefly, our conclusions are as follows: 1. The discounts can vary widely between funds and seem to be persistent in our sample period. 2. The local market indices are cointegrated with the domestic closed-end funds discounts and the information is flowed from the market to the closed-end funds, which support the investor sentiment hypothesis. 3. The causality relationship between the foreign closed-end funds and the local indices is not obvious. Based on this, the market segmentation hypothesis seems to hold in our sample, which indicates that investing in the foreign funds provide investors with the benefit of diversification.
      For future researches, we suggest that more the foreign funds should be included in the sample and the classification of the degree of investor sentiment and the categories of funds can also be improved.
參考文獻 Ben-Zion U., Choi J., and S. hauser (1996). The price linkages between country funds and national stock markets: evidence from co-integration and causality tests of German, Japan and UK funds. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 23(7), 1005-1017.
Bennett J., Gronewoller PL. (2002). Closed-end country fund discounts and systematic UK and US market movements: co-integration and error corrected Granger causality test. Managerial finance, 28(1), 73-92.
Bodurtha, J.N. Jr., Kim, D., Lee, C. (1995). Closed-end country funds and US market sentiment. Review of Financial Studies 8, 881–919.
Bonser-Neal et al. (1990). International investment restrictions and closed-end fund prices. Journal of finance, 45, p523-547.
Boudreaux, Kenneth J. (1973). Discounts and premiums on closed-end funds: a study in valuation. Journal of finance, 28, p515-522.
Brauer G. (1984). Open-ending closed-end funds. Journal of financial economics, 13, p491-507.
Brickley J., Schalteim J. (1985). Lifting the lid on closed-end fund investment companies, A case of abcdrmal returns. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 20, p107-117.
Burch TR., Emery DR., Fuerst ME. (2003) What can “Nine-Eleven” tell us about closed-end funds discounts and investor sentiment? The Financial Review, 38, 515-529.
Chay JB., Trzcinka C. (1999). Managerial performance and the cross-sectional pricing of closed-end funds. Journal of financial economics, 52, p379-408.
Central Compilation and Translation Bureau (2001). The research report of the legislation and development of the fund industries. Comparative Economic and Social Systems, 3, p2-p36.
Chang Yuanchen, Kam C. Chan and Robert CW Fok (2006). Divergent Expectations and Close-end Funds: Evidence from Post-Asian Financial Crisis Period. Journal of Emerging markets, forthcoming.
Chen N.-F., Kan R., Miller M. (1993a). Are the discounts on closed-end funds a sentimental index? Journal of Finance, 48, 795-800.
Chen N.-F., Kan R., Miller M. (1993b). A rejoinder. Journal of Finance, 48, 809-810.
Credit Lyonnais Laing (1998). Investment trust yearbook. CCL, London.
Dickey D., Fuller WA. (1979) Distribution of the estimates for autoregressive time series with unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
Dickey D., Fuller WA. (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
Draper Paul (1986). The advantages of diversification through UK equities. The investment analyst, 79, 23-p25.
Draper Paul (1989). The investment trust industry in the UK. Athenaeum Press Ltd., Newcastle upon Tyne.
Elton J., Gruber J., Busse A. (1998) Do investors care about sentiment? Journal of Business, 71(4), 477-500.
Enders Walter. (2004) Applied Econometric Time Series. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, Hoboken.
Engle RF., Granger CWJ. (1987) Co-integration and error correction representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
Gemmill G., Thomas DC. (2002) Noise trading, costly arbitrage, and asset prices: Evidence from closed-end funds. Journal of Finance, 57(6), 2571-2594.
Granger CWJ. (1969) Investigating causal relations by econometrics model and cross spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, 424-438.
Granger CWJ. (1980) Testing for causality: a personal viewpoint. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2, pp329-352.
Granger CWJ. (1988) Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211.
Investment Trust Information Services: http://www.trustnet.com
Klibanoff P., Lamont O., Wizman TA. (1998) Investor reaction to salient news in closed-end country funds. Journal of Finance, 53(2), 673-699.
Lee BS., Gong G.(2002). On the dual characteristics of closed-end country funds. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21, 589-618..
Lee,C.,Shleifer,A., Thaler,R.(1993).Investor sentiment and the closed-end fund puzzle. Journal of Finance, 48, 801–808.
Malkiel, B. (1977). The valuation of closed-end investment-company shares. Journal of Finance, 32, 847–859.
Malkiel B. (1995). The structure of closed-end fund discounts revisited. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21, 32–38.
Patro D. (1998). Performance of closed-end international mutual funds. Rutgers University, manuscript.
Perron P. (1989) The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57, 461-471.
Philips P., Perron P. (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrica, 75, 335-346.
Pontiff J. (1994). Closed-end fund premia and returns: Implications for financial market equilibrium. Journal of Financial Economics, 37, 341–370.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
93357038
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093357038
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 張元晨zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor CHANG, YUAN-CHENen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 黃伯偉zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) HUANG, PO-WEIen_US
dc.creator (作者) 黃伯偉zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) HUANG, PO-WEIen_US
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 09:00:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 09:00:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 09:00:53 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093357038en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/30988-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 財務管理研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93357038zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 封閉型基金的掛牌買賣價格,與其投資標的淨資產價值(NAV, net asset value)間,總是存在一定程度的差距,且幾乎為10%~20%的折價現象,被視為財務學上的一種異常(anomaly)。早期研究學者們由經濟理性的角度解釋此種現象,認為是基金管理的績效表現、投資標的流動性或是稅制上的差異等等角度來解釋此一現象,但並沒有獲得一致的結論。
      近期以來,有學者嘗試從行為財務學的角度,認為封閉型基金的折溢價現象及其幅度的變化,是由於投資人情緒(investor sentiment)的波動所造成。除了傳統的迴歸模式,更有不少學者以嚴謹的計量方式分析,例如財務時間序列的許多技巧。本研究即以時間序列之單根檢定(unit root test)、共整合現象檢定(co-integration test)及Granger因果關係檢定(Granger Causality test)等等方式,分析封閉型基金折溢價現象是否由投資人情緒所造成,及其兩者間是否有共整合現象。
      雖然已有部分文獻探討類似議題,但跨國比較分析通常僅限於英、美兩國,且英、美兩國市場連動程度太高,可能影響分析結果的正確性;除此之外,樣本分析期間亦通常不超過十年。本研究以1991-2005年英國掛牌之封閉型基金為研究樣本,並包含投資標的為日本的封閉型基金,進行英國、日本之間的跨國性比較;不但有更足夠的樣本時間長度,亦能驗證是否不同跨國分析亦會有相同結論。
      共整合現象檢定及Granger因果關係檢定大致支持行為財務學的角度。但英國、日本跨國比較的結果,似乎並不完全等同於前述英、美跨國比較的結果。建議後續可從掛牌國與投資標的區域連動程度較低的封閉型基金作為研究方向。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The closed-end funds discounts have been an interesting phenomenon for a long period. Some theories based on economic rationale try to solve the puzzle but fail to get consistent conclusions. Recently some theories based on behavioral finance, such as the investor sentiment hypothesis, have been proposed to solve this puzzle. This study examines the investor sentiment hypothesis based on various time-series tests and finds some interesting results.
      Briefly, our conclusions are as follows: 1. The discounts can vary widely between funds and seem to be persistent in our sample period. 2. The local market indices are cointegrated with the domestic closed-end funds discounts and the information is flowed from the market to the closed-end funds, which support the investor sentiment hypothesis. 3. The causality relationship between the foreign closed-end funds and the local indices is not obvious. Based on this, the market segmentation hypothesis seems to hold in our sample, which indicates that investing in the foreign funds provide investors with the benefit of diversification.
      For future researches, we suggest that more the foreign funds should be included in the sample and the classification of the degree of investor sentiment and the categories of funds can also be improved.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents Abstract II
     List of Tables III
     List of Figures IV
     Chapter 1 Introduction 1
     1-1 Motivation of the Study 1
     1-2 Objectives of this Study 3
     1-3 Chapter Outlines 5
     Chapter 2 Literature Review 6
     2-1 The Main Types of Trusts in the UK 6
     2-1-1 Unit Trusts 6
     2-1-2 Investments Trusts 7
     2-1-3 Open-End Investment Company 8
     2-2 The Puzzle of the Closed-End Fund Discounts 10
     2-3 Investor Sentiments in the Closed-End Funds 13
     Chapter 3 Research Methodology 17
     3-1 Empirical Framework 17
     3-2 Methodology 20
     3-2-1 Stationarity 20
     3-2-2 Cointegration 21
     3-2-3 Error-Corrected Granger Causality 22
     3-2 Hypotheses 24
     3-3 Data Description 26
     Chapter 4 Empirical Results 28
     4-1 Descriptive Statistics 28
     4-2 The Results of Unit Root Test 31
     4-3 The Results of Cointegration Test 37
     4-4 The Results of Granger Causality Tests 39
     Chapter 5 Summary and Conclusions 49
     5-1 Summary of This Study 49
     5-2 Suggestions of the Future Studies 52
     Reference 53
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093357038en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 共整合zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 因果檢定zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 封閉型基金折價zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Cointegrationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Granger causality testen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) closed-end fund discountsen_US
dc.title (題名) Closed-end Fund Discounts and Investor Sentiment: Evidence from U.K. Investment Trustszh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ben-Zion U., Choi J., and S. hauser (1996). The price linkages between country funds and national stock markets: evidence from co-integration and causality tests of German, Japan and UK funds. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 23(7), 1005-1017.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bennett J., Gronewoller PL. (2002). Closed-end country fund discounts and systematic UK and US market movements: co-integration and error corrected Granger causality test. Managerial finance, 28(1), 73-92.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bodurtha, J.N. Jr., Kim, D., Lee, C. (1995). Closed-end country funds and US market sentiment. Review of Financial Studies 8, 881–919.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bonser-Neal et al. (1990). International investment restrictions and closed-end fund prices. Journal of finance, 45, p523-547.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Boudreaux, Kenneth J. (1973). Discounts and premiums on closed-end funds: a study in valuation. Journal of finance, 28, p515-522.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brauer G. (1984). Open-ending closed-end funds. Journal of financial economics, 13, p491-507.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brickley J., Schalteim J. (1985). Lifting the lid on closed-end fund investment companies, A case of abcdrmal returns. Journal of financial and quantitative analysis, 20, p107-117.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Burch TR., Emery DR., Fuerst ME. (2003) What can “Nine-Eleven” tell us about closed-end funds discounts and investor sentiment? The Financial Review, 38, 515-529.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chay JB., Trzcinka C. (1999). Managerial performance and the cross-sectional pricing of closed-end funds. Journal of financial economics, 52, p379-408.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Central Compilation and Translation Bureau (2001). The research report of the legislation and development of the fund industries. Comparative Economic and Social Systems, 3, p2-p36.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chang Yuanchen, Kam C. Chan and Robert CW Fok (2006). Divergent Expectations and Close-end Funds: Evidence from Post-Asian Financial Crisis Period. Journal of Emerging markets, forthcoming.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chen N.-F., Kan R., Miller M. (1993a). Are the discounts on closed-end funds a sentimental index? Journal of Finance, 48, 795-800.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chen N.-F., Kan R., Miller M. (1993b). A rejoinder. Journal of Finance, 48, 809-810.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Credit Lyonnais Laing (1998). Investment trust yearbook. CCL, London.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dickey D., Fuller WA. (1979) Distribution of the estimates for autoregressive time series with unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dickey D., Fuller WA. (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Draper Paul (1986). The advantages of diversification through UK equities. The investment analyst, 79, 23-p25.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Draper Paul (1989). The investment trust industry in the UK. Athenaeum Press Ltd., Newcastle upon Tyne.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Elton J., Gruber J., Busse A. (1998) Do investors care about sentiment? Journal of Business, 71(4), 477-500.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Enders Walter. (2004) Applied Econometric Time Series. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, Hoboken.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Engle RF., Granger CWJ. (1987) Co-integration and error correction representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gemmill G., Thomas DC. (2002) Noise trading, costly arbitrage, and asset prices: Evidence from closed-end funds. Journal of Finance, 57(6), 2571-2594.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Granger CWJ. (1969) Investigating causal relations by econometrics model and cross spectral methods. Econometrica, 37, 424-438.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Granger CWJ. (1980) Testing for causality: a personal viewpoint. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2, pp329-352.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Granger CWJ. (1988) Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Investment Trust Information Services: http://www.trustnet.comzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Klibanoff P., Lamont O., Wizman TA. (1998) Investor reaction to salient news in closed-end country funds. Journal of Finance, 53(2), 673-699.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lee BS., Gong G.(2002). On the dual characteristics of closed-end country funds. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21, 589-618..zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lee,C.,Shleifer,A., Thaler,R.(1993).Investor sentiment and the closed-end fund puzzle. Journal of Finance, 48, 801–808.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Malkiel, B. (1977). The valuation of closed-end investment-company shares. Journal of Finance, 32, 847–859.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Malkiel B. (1995). The structure of closed-end fund discounts revisited. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21, 32–38.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Patro D. (1998). Performance of closed-end international mutual funds. Rutgers University, manuscript.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Perron P. (1989) The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57, 461-471.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Philips P., Perron P. (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrica, 75, 335-346.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Pontiff J. (1994). Closed-end fund premia and returns: Implications for financial market equilibrium. Journal of Financial Economics, 37, 341–370.zh_TW