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題名 檢視”預測”在巴斯夫公司管理流程中之應用
Examine forecasting as a business process in BASF
作者 莊馥銘
Chuang, Sandy
貢獻者 吳文傑
Wu, Jack
莊馥銘
Chuang, Sandy
關鍵詞 預測
日期 2008
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 09:44:38 (UTC+8)
摘要 檢視”預測”在巴斯夫公司管理流程中之應用
ABSTRACT
     
      As the competition in today’s markets for products and services becoming more and more intense, it is imperative for companies to improve their attempts to plan for the future (Smith & McIntyre, 1994). Literature reviews have shown clear linkage between forecast accuracy and the company’s bottom line. Improving the accuracy and timeliness of internal forecasts increases revenue predictability and operating margins, which are keys in today’s volatile economy.
     
     BASF is a chemical company founded in Germany in 1865. “Earn a premium on the cost of capital” is one of the four strategic guidelines of BASF 2015. Reliable forecast is one of the critical value drivers supporting the strategic guidelines. Effective forecasting creates value through resource optimization, inventory reduction and ultimately increase profits and directly impacting financial results.
     
      The paper uses the results of interviews and questionnaires conducted by a project team within BASF as the basis for analysis. Though it is not an official forecasting audit, similar approach was undertaken. Forecasting as it is used in BASF is reviewed. The findings of interviews and surveys conducted are summarized. The before and after status of forecasting in BASF are examined for comparison.
     
     Forecasting is an integrated system of tools, people factors and processes. From the analysis, it is found that making more investment in tools does not necessary improve forecasting performance unless the people factors are addressed and comprehensive standard operating practices (SOPs) are adopted. Usage of forecasts is as important as the generation of forecasts. Sales team involvement and increased collaboration in the generation of forecast helped as leverage for better forecasting. In addition, forecast accuracy as performance measures emphasizes task ownership and encourages better performance.
     
     Though various forecasts are performed in business operations, ranging from economic trend, interest and exchange rates, raw material and commodity prices, production capacity, product requirements to the company’s bottom line, but some are better forecasted centrally or globally, some regionally and some locally. There is no definite conclusion as to whether decentralized or centralized forecasts are better than the other as it is dependent on the specific forecast and its usage.
     
     With the merger and acquisitions activities often undertaken by companies, forecast management is an even more important task to maintain the customers and grow the sales during and after the integration of these businesses throughout the world. Regular forecasting audits should to be conducted and corrective measures be monitored for sustainable improvements.
TABLES OF CONTENTS
     1 INTRODUCTION 1
     1.1 Research Background 1
     1.2 Purpose of the Study 3
     1.3 Literature Review 5
     1.3.1 Definition of Forecasting 5
     1.3.2 Types of Forecasting Techniques 5
     1.3.3 Other Sales Forecasting Issues 8
     1.3.4 Importance of Accurate Forecast 9
     1.3.5 Improving Forecasting Process 10
     1.3.6 Sales Force Involvement in Forecasting Process 12
     1.4 Methodology 14
     2 INTRODUCTION OF BASF SE 15
     2.1 Overview of BASF SE 15
     2.2 History of BASF SE 16
     2.3 Verbund 22
     2.3.1 The Verbund Principle 22
     2.3.2 Economic Advantages of Verbund 23
     2.3.3 The Verbund Sites 24
     2.4 BASF Products 26
     3 FORECAST IN BASF 31
     3.1 Definition and Types of Forecasting 31
     3.2 Factors Affecting Forecasting 33
     3.3 Forecasting Tools and Systems in BASF 35
     3.3.1 Price Forecasting Tools and Systems 35
     3.3.2 Sales Forecasting Tools and Systems 40
     3.3.3 Other Forecasting Tools and Systems 41
     4. FINDINGS OF INTERVIEWS AND SURVEYS 43
     4.1 Interviews 43
     4.2 Surveys 47
     4.2.1 General Section 48
     4.2.2 Developer Section 51
     4.2.3 User Section 53
     5 CONCLUSION AND SUMMARY 56
     5.1 Recommendations for Further Improvements 57
     5.2 BASF in 2009 63
     REFERENCE 65
     APPENDIX
     Appendix A Summary of Project Recommendations 69
     Appendix B Survey Questions 70
     Appendix C Story of Caprolactam Price Forecasting Tool Development 82
     Appendix D Sample Pages of On-Line Survey 84
     Appendix E Suggested Elements of Forecasting Standard Operating Practices 85
     Appendix F Project Team 86
     Appendix G BASF Forecasting Liaisons 87
參考文獻 Reference
Books
Armstrong, J.S. (1985). Long Range Forecasting, Second Edition, John Wiley and Sons.
Smaros, Johanna (2004). Short-term Forecasting, Helsinki University of Technology.
Mentzer, J.T. & Bienstock, Carol C. (1998) Sales Forecasting Management, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Mentzer, J.T. & Moon, M.A. (2005). Sales Forecasting Management : A Demand Management Approach, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Spyros Makridakis, Seven C. Wheelwright, Rob J. Hyndman (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications, Third Edition, John Wiley and Sons.
Stanton, W. & Spiro, R. (1999). Management of a Sales Force, Boston: Irwin/McGraw Hill.
Articles
Bolton, R. & Chase, C. (1997). Odyssey of a Forecaster, Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems, 16, 1, 30-32.
Deschamps, E. (2005). Six Steps to Overcome Bias in the Forecast Process, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 2 (October 2005), 5-11.
Dhuyvetter, R. (2005). Management Judgment: Best as an Input to the Statistical Forecasting Process, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 2 (October 2005), 24-26.
Gordan, R., Milewichz, J., & Golden, J. (1993). Forecasting: Who, What, When, Where, and How, Journal of Business Forecasting, Summer, 16-21.
Haan, P. (2004). The Salesperson’s Role in the Sales Forecasting Process, CustomerCentric Selling News, 3, 1.
Hansen, Morten T., Nitin Nohria, and Thomas Tierney (1999). What’s Your Strategy for Managing Knowledge, Harvard Business Review, (March-April 1999), 106-116.
Hogarth, R. & Makridakis, S. (1981). Beyond Discrete Biases: Functional and Dysfunctional Aspect of Judgmental Heuristics, Psychology Bulletin, 90, 115-137.
Kahn, Kenneth B. (2000), Benchmarking New Product Forecasting Practices, IBF Research Report #4, Flushing, NY: Institute of Business Forecasting.
Kahn, Kenneth B. (1998), Benchmarking Sales Forecasting Performance Measures, The Journal of Business Forecasting, (Winter 1998-1999), 19-23.
Kahn, Kenneth B. (2003), How to Measure the Impact of a Forecast Error on an Enterprise? The Journal of Business Forecasting, (Spring 2003), 21-25.
Kahn, Kenneth B. (2002), How to Use a “Golf” Game to Enhance the Forecasting Process, The Journal of Business Forecasting, (Winter 2001-2002), 23-28.
Kahn, Kenneth B. (1998), Revisiting Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Forecasting, The Journal of Business Forecasting, (summer 1998), 14-19.
Kahn, Kenneth B, Adams, Marjorie E. (2001). Sales Forecasting as a Knowledge Management Process, The Journal of Business Forecasting, (Winter 2000-2001), 19-22.
Keenan, W. (1995). Keeping Sales in the Loop. Sales & Marketing Management, 147,6,34-35.
Lapide, L. (2002). New Development in Business Forecasting: You need Sales and Operations Planning, Journal of Business Forecasting, (Summer 2002), 11-14.
Mello, J.E. (2005). The Impact of Corporate Culture on Sales Forecasting, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 2 (October 2005), 12-15.
Mentzer, J.T., Kahn, K.B., and Carol C. Bienstock, (1999). Benchmarking Sales Forecasting Management, Business Horizon, May-June 1999, 48-56.
Mentzer, J.T., Cox, J. Jr. (1984). Familiarity, Application, and Performance of Sales Forecasting Techniques, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, 27-36.
Mentzer, J.T. (2006), Smart Investments, Choosing the Right Demand Forecasting and Planning System, APICS Magazine, (January 2006), 34-36
Mentzer, J.T., Moon, M.A., Kent, J.L. & Smith, C.D. (1997). The Need for a Forecasting Champion, Journal of Business Forecasting, 16(3), 3-8.
Moon, M.A. (2006). Breaking Down Barriers to Forecast Process Improvement, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 4, (June 2006), 26-30.
Moon, M.A., Mentzer, J.T., & Smith, C.D. (2003). Conducting a Sales Forecasting Audit, International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 5-25.
Moon, M.A., Mentzer, J. T., Thomas, D. E. Jr. (2000). Customer Demand Planning at Lucent Technology, Industrial Marketing Management, 2000, 19-26.
Moon, M.A., Mentzer, J.T. (1999). Improving Sales force Forecasting, The Journal of Business Forecasting, (summer 1999), 7-12.
Moon, M.A., Mentzer, J.T., Smith C. D., Garver, M. (1998). Seven Keys to Better Forecasting, Business Horizon, (September – October, 1998), 44-52.
Moon, M.A. (2004). What is World-Class Forecasting? A Perspective on 20 Years of Research, 2004 International Conference Proceedings at APICS-The Educational Society for Resource Management.
Paley, N. (1994). Welcome to the Fast Lane, Sales and Marketing Management, 146, 8, 2-3.
Perry Haan. (2004). The Salesperson’s Role in the Sales Forecasting Process. Customer Centric Selling News, (January 2004), 3,1.
Reese, S. (2000). The Human Aspects of Collaborative Forecasting, Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems, 19, 4, 3-9.
Smith, 2. & McIntyre, S. (1994). A Two-Stage Sales Forecasting Procedure using Discounted Least Squares. Journal of Marketing Research, 31, 1, 44-56.
Smaros, J., Hellstrom, M., (2004) Using the Assortment Forecasting Method to Enable Sales Force Involvement in Forecasting, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistic Management, 34, 2, 140-157.
Stack, J. (1997). A Passion for Forecasting. Inc., 19, 16, 37-38.
Websites
“J. Scott Armstrong, Principles of Forecasting”,
http://www.futurecasts.com/Book%20review%205-2
http://www.accel-team.com/pygmalion/
http://www.bus.utk.edu/ivc/forecasting/forecastingreadings.html
“Practical Forecasting”, http://www.urban.org/content/PolicyCenters/Justice/Projects/ProgramonYouthJustice/PracticalForecasting/practical_forecasting.html
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/ForecastingandEconometricModels.html
http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/imsc/presentations/monday/breakout%201/IMI-3b/IMI-3b.1%20(p%20johnston)/present/pdf
“Types of forecasting methods”, www.bus.ucf.edu/rszymanski/ISM3530/CP2forecasting
Institutes:
Institute of Business Forecasting – IBF, ibf@ibfmail.org
T. Glanville, Oxford Economic Forecasting – OEF, tglanville@oef.co.uk
BASF Supply Chain Competency Center
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營管理碩士班(IMBA)
90933012
97
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090933012
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 吳文傑zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Jacken_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 莊馥銘zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Chuang, Sandyen_US
dc.creator (作者) 莊馥銘zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Chuang, Sandyen_US
dc.date (日期) 2008en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 09:44:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 09:44:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 09:44:38 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0090933012en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/31292-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營管理碩士班(IMBA)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 90933012zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 檢視”預測”在巴斯夫公司管理流程中之應用zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) ABSTRACT
     
      As the competition in today’s markets for products and services becoming more and more intense, it is imperative for companies to improve their attempts to plan for the future (Smith & McIntyre, 1994). Literature reviews have shown clear linkage between forecast accuracy and the company’s bottom line. Improving the accuracy and timeliness of internal forecasts increases revenue predictability and operating margins, which are keys in today’s volatile economy.
     
     BASF is a chemical company founded in Germany in 1865. “Earn a premium on the cost of capital” is one of the four strategic guidelines of BASF 2015. Reliable forecast is one of the critical value drivers supporting the strategic guidelines. Effective forecasting creates value through resource optimization, inventory reduction and ultimately increase profits and directly impacting financial results.
     
      The paper uses the results of interviews and questionnaires conducted by a project team within BASF as the basis for analysis. Though it is not an official forecasting audit, similar approach was undertaken. Forecasting as it is used in BASF is reviewed. The findings of interviews and surveys conducted are summarized. The before and after status of forecasting in BASF are examined for comparison.
     
     Forecasting is an integrated system of tools, people factors and processes. From the analysis, it is found that making more investment in tools does not necessary improve forecasting performance unless the people factors are addressed and comprehensive standard operating practices (SOPs) are adopted. Usage of forecasts is as important as the generation of forecasts. Sales team involvement and increased collaboration in the generation of forecast helped as leverage for better forecasting. In addition, forecast accuracy as performance measures emphasizes task ownership and encourages better performance.
     
     Though various forecasts are performed in business operations, ranging from economic trend, interest and exchange rates, raw material and commodity prices, production capacity, product requirements to the company’s bottom line, but some are better forecasted centrally or globally, some regionally and some locally. There is no definite conclusion as to whether decentralized or centralized forecasts are better than the other as it is dependent on the specific forecast and its usage.
     
     With the merger and acquisitions activities often undertaken by companies, forecast management is an even more important task to maintain the customers and grow the sales during and after the integration of these businesses throughout the world. Regular forecasting audits should to be conducted and corrective measures be monitored for sustainable improvements.		en_US
dc.description.abstract (摘要) TABLES OF CONTENTS
     1 INTRODUCTION 1
     1.1 Research Background 1
     1.2 Purpose of the Study 3
     1.3 Literature Review 5
     1.3.1 Definition of Forecasting 5
     1.3.2 Types of Forecasting Techniques 5
     1.3.3 Other Sales Forecasting Issues 8
     1.3.4 Importance of Accurate Forecast 9
     1.3.5 Improving Forecasting Process 10
     1.3.6 Sales Force Involvement in Forecasting Process 12
     1.4 Methodology 14
     2 INTRODUCTION OF BASF SE 15
     2.1 Overview of BASF SE 15
     2.2 History of BASF SE 16
     2.3 Verbund 22
     2.3.1 The Verbund Principle 22
     2.3.2 Economic Advantages of Verbund 23
     2.3.3 The Verbund Sites 24
     2.4 BASF Products 26
     3 FORECAST IN BASF 31
     3.1 Definition and Types of Forecasting 31
     3.2 Factors Affecting Forecasting 33
     3.3 Forecasting Tools and Systems in BASF 35
     3.3.1 Price Forecasting Tools and Systems 35
     3.3.2 Sales Forecasting Tools and Systems 40
     3.3.3 Other Forecasting Tools and Systems 41
     4. FINDINGS OF INTERVIEWS AND SURVEYS 43
     4.1 Interviews 43
     4.2 Surveys 47
     4.2.1 General Section 48
     4.2.2 Developer Section 51
     4.2.3 User Section 53
     5 CONCLUSION AND SUMMARY 56
     5.1 Recommendations for Further Improvements 57
     5.2 BASF in 2009 63
     REFERENCE 65
     APPENDIX
     Appendix A Summary of Project Recommendations 69
     Appendix B Survey Questions 70
     Appendix C Story of Caprolactam Price Forecasting Tool Development 82
     Appendix D Sample Pages of On-Line Survey 84
     Appendix E Suggested Elements of Forecasting Standard Operating Practices 85
     Appendix F Project Team 86
     Appendix G BASF Forecasting Liaisons 87		-
dc.description.tableofcontents TABLES OF CONTENTS
     1 INTRODUCTION 1
      1.1 Research Background 1
      1.2 Purpose of the Study 3
      1.3 Literature Review 5
      1.3.1 Definition of Forecasting 5
      1.3.2 Types of Forecasting Techniques 5
      1.3.3 Other Sales Forecasting Issues 8
      1.3.4 Importance of Accurate Forecast 9
      1.3.5 Improving Forecasting Process 10
      1.3.6 Sales Force Involvement in Forecasting Process 12
      1.4 Methodology 14
     2 INTRODUCTION OF BASF SE 15
      2.1 Overview of BASF SE 15
      2.2 History of BASF SE 16
      2.3 Verbund 22
      2.3.1 The Verbund Principle 22
      2.3.2 Economic Advantages of Verbund 23
      2.3.3 The Verbund Sites 24
      2.4 BASF Products 26
     3 FORECAST IN BASF 31
      3.1 Definition and Types of Forecasting 31
      3.2 Factors Affecting Forecasting 33
      3.3 Forecasting Tools and Systems in BASF 35
      3.3.1 Price Forecasting Tools and Systems 35
      3.3.2 Sales Forecasting Tools and Systems 40
      3.3.3 Other Forecasting Tools and Systems 41
     4. FINDINGS OF INTERVIEWS AND SURVEYS 43
      4.1 Interviews 43
      4.2 Surveys 47
      4.2.1 General Section 48
      4.2.2 Developer Section 51
      4.2.3 User Section 53
     5 CONCLUSION AND SUMMARY 56
      5.1 Recommendations for Further Improvements 57
      5.2 BASF in 2009 63
     REFERENCE 65
     APPENDIX
      Appendix A Summary of Project Recommendations 69
      Appendix B Survey Questions 70
      Appendix C Story of Caprolactam Price Forecasting Tool Development 82
      Appendix D Sample Pages of On-Line Survey 84
      Appendix E Suggested Elements of Forecasting Standard Operating Practices 85
      Appendix F Project Team 86
      Appendix G BASF Forecasting Liaisons 87		zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0090933012en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 預測zh_TW
dc.title (題名) 檢視”預測”在巴斯夫公司管理流程中之應用zh_TW
dc.title (題名) Examine forecasting as a business process in BASFen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Referencezh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bookszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Armstrong, J.S. (1985). Long Range Forecasting, Second Edition, John Wiley and Sons.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Smaros, Johanna (2004). Short-term Forecasting, Helsinki University of Technology.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mentzer, J.T. & Bienstock, Carol C. (1998) Sales Forecasting Management, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mentzer, J.T. & Moon, M.A. (2005). Sales Forecasting Management : A Demand Management Approach, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Spyros Makridakis, Seven C. Wheelwright, Rob J. Hyndman (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications, Third Edition, John Wiley and Sons.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Stanton, W. & Spiro, R. (1999). Management of a Sales Force, Boston: Irwin/McGraw Hill.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Articleszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bolton, R. & Chase, C. (1997). Odyssey of a Forecaster, Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems, 16, 1, 30-32.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Deschamps, E. (2005). Six Steps to Overcome Bias in the Forecast Process, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 2 (October 2005), 5-11.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Dhuyvetter, R. (2005). Management Judgment: Best as an Input to the Statistical Forecasting Process, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 2 (October 2005), 24-26.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Gordan, R., Milewichz, J., & Golden, J. (1993). Forecasting: Who, What, When, Where, and How, Journal of Business Forecasting, Summer, 16-21.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Haan, P. (2004). The Salesperson’s Role in the Sales Forecasting Process, CustomerCentric Selling News, 3, 1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hansen, Morten T., Nitin Nohria, and Thomas Tierney (1999). What’s Your Strategy for Managing Knowledge, Harvard Business Review, (March-April 1999), 106-116.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hogarth, R. & Makridakis, S. (1981). Beyond Discrete Biases: Functional and Dysfunctional Aspect of Judgmental Heuristics, Psychology Bulletin, 90, 115-137.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kahn, Kenneth B. (2000), Benchmarking New Product Forecasting Practices, IBF Research Report #4, Flushing, NY: Institute of Business Forecasting.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kahn, Kenneth B. (1998), Benchmarking Sales Forecasting Performance Measures, The Journal of Business Forecasting, (Winter 1998-1999), 19-23.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kahn, Kenneth B. (2003), How to Measure the Impact of a Forecast Error on an Enterprise? The Journal of Business Forecasting, (Spring 2003), 21-25.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kahn, Kenneth B. (2002), How to Use a “Golf” Game to Enhance the Forecasting Process, The Journal of Business Forecasting, (Winter 2001-2002), 23-28.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kahn, Kenneth B. (1998), Revisiting Top-Down versus Bottom-Up Forecasting, The Journal of Business Forecasting, (summer 1998), 14-19.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kahn, Kenneth B, Adams, Marjorie E. (2001). Sales Forecasting as a Knowledge Management Process, The Journal of Business Forecasting, (Winter 2000-2001), 19-22.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Keenan, W. (1995). Keeping Sales in the Loop. Sales & Marketing Management, 147,6,34-35.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lapide, L. (2002). New Development in Business Forecasting: You need Sales and Operations Planning, Journal of Business Forecasting, (Summer 2002), 11-14.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mello, J.E. (2005). The Impact of Corporate Culture on Sales Forecasting, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 2 (October 2005), 12-15.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mentzer, J.T., Kahn, K.B., and Carol C. Bienstock, (1999). Benchmarking Sales Forecasting Management, Business Horizon, May-June 1999, 48-56.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mentzer, J.T., Cox, J. Jr. (1984). Familiarity, Application, and Performance of Sales Forecasting Techniques, Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, 27-36.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mentzer, J.T. (2006), Smart Investments, Choosing the Right Demand Forecasting and Planning System, APICS Magazine, (January 2006), 34-36zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mentzer, J.T., Moon, M.A., Kent, J.L. & Smith, C.D. (1997). The Need for a Forecasting Champion, Journal of Business Forecasting, 16(3), 3-8.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Moon, M.A. (2006). Breaking Down Barriers to Forecast Process Improvement, Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 4, (June 2006), 26-30.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Moon, M.A., Mentzer, J.T., & Smith, C.D. (2003). Conducting a Sales Forecasting Audit, International Journal of Forecasting, 19, 5-25.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Moon, M.A., Mentzer, J. T., Thomas, D. E. Jr. (2000). Customer Demand Planning at Lucent Technology, Industrial Marketing Management, 2000, 19-26.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Moon, M.A., Mentzer, J.T. (1999). Improving Sales force Forecasting, The Journal of Business Forecasting, (summer 1999), 7-12.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Moon, M.A., Mentzer, J.T., Smith C. D., Garver, M. (1998). Seven Keys to Better Forecasting, Business Horizon, (September – October, 1998), 44-52.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Moon, M.A. (2004). What is World-Class Forecasting? A Perspective on 20 Years of Research, 2004 International Conference Proceedings at APICS-The Educational Society for Resource Management.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Paley, N. (1994). Welcome to the Fast Lane, Sales and Marketing Management, 146, 8, 2-3.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Perry Haan. (2004). The Salesperson’s Role in the Sales Forecasting Process. Customer Centric Selling News, (January 2004), 3,1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Reese, S. (2000). The Human Aspects of Collaborative Forecasting, Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems, 19, 4, 3-9.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Smith, 2. & McIntyre, S. (1994). A Two-Stage Sales Forecasting Procedure using Discounted Least Squares. Journal of Marketing Research, 31, 1, 44-56.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Smaros, J., Hellstrom, M., (2004) Using the Assortment Forecasting Method to Enable Sales Force Involvement in Forecasting, International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistic Management, 34, 2, 140-157.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Stack, J. (1997). A Passion for Forecasting. Inc., 19, 16, 37-38.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Websiteszh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “J. Scott Armstrong, Principles of Forecasting”,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) http://www.futurecasts.com/Book%20review%205-2zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) http://www.accel-team.com/pygmalion/zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) http://www.bus.utk.edu/ivc/forecasting/forecastingreadings.htmlzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) “Practical Forecasting”, http://www.urban.org/content/PolicyCenters/Justice/Projects/ProgramonYouthJustice/PracticalForecasting/practical_forecasting.htmlzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/ForecastingandEconometricModels.htmlzh_TW
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