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題名 台灣股票市場除權效應之實證研究
The Empirical Result on Dividend Effect of Taiwan Stock Market
作者 盧偉文
貢獻者 陳松男
盧偉文
關鍵詞 除權效應
event-study methodology
SAR (standardized average residual)
AR (average residual)
CAR (cumulative average residual)
日期 2005
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 09:45:52 (UTC+8)
摘要 參考從2001到2005在台灣股市的股息對股票的影響的研究,在根據event-study and SAR method這兩種方式之實證研究可以得到本次的台灣股市裡面除權的效應。
Referring to our research into the ex-dividend effects on stocks traded on TSE from 2001 to 2005, we come to the following conclusions under the event-study and SAR method. There should be negative ARs on the three days prior to the ex-date and a positive AR on the ex-dividend day, no matter in a bear or bull market. Stocks with cash-only dividends present lower ARs on the three days prior to the ex-date and the ex-dividend day while stock-only dividend ones suffer from higher ARs. The performances of stocks with balanced dividends are just in-between. The most significant ex-dividend effects turn up when it comes to stocks which go ex-dividend in season, with a positive CAR to the seventh day after the ex-date. On the other hand, the effects on the early-ex-dividend stocks exhibit insignificance generally. Later-ex-dividend stocks demonstrate the lowest fluctuation of ARs. However, the simultaneous decline of the index in the ex-dividend season is likely to result in higher-significant ARs. In terms of industry, the ex-dividend effects on electronic companies are more significant than on non-electronic companies. Given a bear market, there used to be negative CARs on electronic companies after shareholders’ meeting; on the contrary, in a bull market, there were positive CARs.
Contents 2
     List of Figures 2
     List of Tables 2
     1. Introduction 2
     2. Literature Review 2
     2.1 Theories on Dividend Policy 2
     2.1.1 Information Content Hypothesis 2
     2.1.2 Scale Effect Hypothesis 2
     2.1.3 Wealth Illusion Effect Hypothesis 2
     2.1.4 Dividend Irrelevance Theory 2
     2.1.5 Bird-in-hand Theory 2
     2.1.6 Dividend Clientele Effect 2
     2.2 Foreign Empirical Researches 2
     2.3 Domestic Empirical Researches 2
     3. Event-Study Methodology 2
     3.1 Introduction of Event-Study Methodology 2
     3.2 Steps of event-study methodology 2
     3.3 Model of Expected and Abnormal Returns 2
     3.3.1 Expected Return Model 2
     3.3.2 Models for Estimating Abnormal Return 2
     3.4 The Statistical Test of Event-Study 2
     3.4.1 Test of Average Abnormal Return 2
     3.4.2 Test of Cumulative Abnormal Return 2
     3.4.3 Sign Test 2
     4. Empirical Results 2
     4.1 Separated by Market Trend 2
     4.1.1 Bear Market 2
     4.1.2 Bull Market 2
     4.2 Separated by Type of dividend 2
     4.2.1 Cash Only 2
     4.2.2 Stock Only 2
     4.2.3 Balanced Dividends 2
     4.3 Separated by Time 2
     4.3.1 Earlier 2
     4.3.2 In Season 2
     4.3.3 Later 2
     4.4 Separated by Industry 2
     4.4.1 Electronic 2
     4.4.2 Non-electronic 2
     4.5 Separated by Price 2
     4.5.1 High Price 2
     4.5.2 Low Price 2
     4.6 Shareholder Meeting Date as the Event 2
     5. Conclusions and Suggestions 2
     5.1 Conclusions 2
     5.1.1 Market Trend 2
     5.1.2 Type of Dividend 2
     5.1.3 Timing 2
     5.1.4 Industry 2
     5.1.5 Price Level 2
     5.2 Suggestions 2
     Appendix: All Tables 2
     References 2
參考文獻 Aharony, J., A. Dotan, 1994.Regular Dividend Announcements and Future Unexpected Earnings: An Empirical Analysis, Financial Review, Vol.29, No.1, 125-151﹒
Banz, R.W., 1981. The Relationship Between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 9, No. 1, 3-18.
Barker, C., 1956. Effective Stock Splits, Harvard Business Review, Vol.34, No.1, 101-106.
Barker, C., 1958. Evaluation of Stock Dividends, Harvard Business Review, Vol.36, No.4, 99-114.
Bollerslev, T.,1986. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscesdasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-327.
Brown, S.J., J.B. Warner, 1980. Measuring Security Price Performance, Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 205-288.
Chou, Hsiang-Yun, 1990. On The Abnormal Returns on Ex-date of Stock Dividends on Taiwan Stock Exchange, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Management Science, National Chiao Tung University.
Chiu, Chen-Hsiang, 1997. The Empirical Study on Systematic Risks and Returns around The Ex-date on Taiwan Stock Exchange, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Finance, Tam-Kang University.
Chen, Sheng-Chung, 1998. On The Relationship Between the Signal of Announcement of Stock Dividends and Corporate Operational Performance, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology.
Doran, D.T., R. Nachtmann, 1988. The Association of Stock Distribution Annoucements and Earnings Performance. Journal of Accounting Auditing & Finance, Vol. 3, No. 2, 113-132.
Eisenann, E., E.A. Moses, 1978. Stock Dividends: Management`s Clientele Effects. Financial Analyst Journal, Vol. 34, No. 4, 77-80.
Elton, E., M. Gruber. 1970. Marginal Stockholder Tax Rates and the Clientele Effect, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. LII, No.1, 69-74.
Engle, R.F., 1982. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscesdasticity with estimates of the variance of U.K. inflation, Econometrics, 50, 987-1008.
Fama, E.F., L. Fisher, M. Jensen and R. Roll, 1969. The Adjustment of Stock Price to New Information, International Economic Review, Vol.10, No.1, 1-21.
Grinblatt, S., W. Masulis, and S. Titman, 1984. The Valuation Effects of Stock Splits and Stock Dividends, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.13, No.4, 461-490.
Hsieh, Ting-Chin,1988. The implied information of Block-Trading Stock Dividends on Taiwan Stock Exchange.
Ke, Meng-Tsung, 1990. The Empirical Study on The Effects of Announcement of Stock Dividend on Stock Prices, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Management Science, National Chiao Tung University.
Leland, M., D. Pyle, 1977. Information Asymmetries Financial Structure and Financial Intermediation. Journal of Finance, December, 371-387.
Linter, J., 1956. The Distribution of Incomes of Corporations among Dividends, Retained Earnings and Taxes, American Economic Review, Vol.XLVI, No.2, 97-113.
Li, Tsun-Hsiu, 1991. The Ex-dividend and Stock Price Behaviors of Stock Dividends and New Issuance: Theory and Empirical Study, Management Review of National Taiwan University, Book 2, Vol.1.
Li, Tsun-Hsiu, 1994. Empirical Study on the Hypothesis of Bargaining and After-Tax Excess Returns on the Ex-date, Management Review of National Taiwan University, Book 4, Vol. 2.
Li, Chien-Jan, 1991. On The Relationship Between Stock Dividends and Stock Prices of Listed Companies in Taiwan, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Accounting, National Taiwan University.
Miller, M., F., Modigliani, 1961. Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares, Journal of Business, Vol. 34, No.4, 411-433.
Miller, M., K. Rock, 1985. Dividend Policy Under Asymmetric Information, Journal of Finance, 1031-1051.
Myers, S., N. Majluf, 1984.Corporate Financing and Investment Decision When Firms Have Information the Investors Do Not Have. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 13, No. 2, 24-33.
Paterson, R. M., 1989. Fair Value Accounting Following an Acquisition, Financial Reporting 1987-88 - A Survey of Published Accounts ICAEW.
Pattel, J.M., 1976. Corporate forecasts of earnings per share and stock price behavior: Empirical tests, Journal of Accounting Research, 14, 146-276.
Phillips, A. L., H. K. Baker, and R. B. Edelman, 1997. The Market Reaction to Discontinuing Regular Stock Dividends, Financial Review, Vo1.32, No.4, Nov, 801-819.
Reinganum, M. R., 1981. Misspecification of Capital Asset Pricing: Empirical Anomalies Based on Earnings` Yields and Market Values, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.9, No.1, 19-46.
Shen, C.H., C.J., Li, 2000. The Event-Study Methodology-For Empirical Study on Finance and Accounting, Hwa-Tai Publishing.
Shen, C.H., C.J., Li, 2005. User-Guide for Event-Study and β Module, Taiwan Economic Journal.
Wang, Chih-Hsin, 1992. Empirical Study on Ex-dividend Stock Price Recovery in Taiwan Stock Exchange, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Management, Soo-Chow University.
Wang, Hsueh-Hua, 1994. On The Relationship Between Stock Dividends and Stock Price, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Accounting, National Taiwan University.
Woolridge, J. R., 1983. Dividend Changes and Security Prices, Journal of Finance, Vol.38, No.5, 1607-1615.
Zibart D.A., 1985. Control of Beta reliability in Studies of Abnormal Return Magnitude: A Methodological Note, Journal of Accounting Research, 920-926.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
國際經營管理碩士班(IMBA)
91933015
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0091933015
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 陳松男zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 盧偉文zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 盧偉文zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 09:45:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 09:45:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 09:45:52 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0091933015en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/31303-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國際經營管理碩士班(IMBA)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91933015zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 參考從2001到2005在台灣股市的股息對股票的影響的研究,在根據event-study and SAR method這兩種方式之實證研究可以得到本次的台灣股市裡面除權的效應。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Referring to our research into the ex-dividend effects on stocks traded on TSE from 2001 to 2005, we come to the following conclusions under the event-study and SAR method. There should be negative ARs on the three days prior to the ex-date and a positive AR on the ex-dividend day, no matter in a bear or bull market. Stocks with cash-only dividends present lower ARs on the three days prior to the ex-date and the ex-dividend day while stock-only dividend ones suffer from higher ARs. The performances of stocks with balanced dividends are just in-between. The most significant ex-dividend effects turn up when it comes to stocks which go ex-dividend in season, with a positive CAR to the seventh day after the ex-date. On the other hand, the effects on the early-ex-dividend stocks exhibit insignificance generally. Later-ex-dividend stocks demonstrate the lowest fluctuation of ARs. However, the simultaneous decline of the index in the ex-dividend season is likely to result in higher-significant ARs. In terms of industry, the ex-dividend effects on electronic companies are more significant than on non-electronic companies. Given a bear market, there used to be negative CARs on electronic companies after shareholders’ meeting; on the contrary, in a bull market, there were positive CARs.en_US
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Contents 2
     List of Figures 2
     List of Tables 2
     1. Introduction 2
     2. Literature Review 2
     2.1 Theories on Dividend Policy 2
     2.1.1 Information Content Hypothesis 2
     2.1.2 Scale Effect Hypothesis 2
     2.1.3 Wealth Illusion Effect Hypothesis 2
     2.1.4 Dividend Irrelevance Theory 2
     2.1.5 Bird-in-hand Theory 2
     2.1.6 Dividend Clientele Effect 2
     2.2 Foreign Empirical Researches 2
     2.3 Domestic Empirical Researches 2
     3. Event-Study Methodology 2
     3.1 Introduction of Event-Study Methodology 2
     3.2 Steps of event-study methodology 2
     3.3 Model of Expected and Abnormal Returns 2
     3.3.1 Expected Return Model 2
     3.3.2 Models for Estimating Abnormal Return 2
     3.4 The Statistical Test of Event-Study 2
     3.4.1 Test of Average Abnormal Return 2
     3.4.2 Test of Cumulative Abnormal Return 2
     3.4.3 Sign Test 2
     4. Empirical Results 2
     4.1 Separated by Market Trend 2
     4.1.1 Bear Market 2
     4.1.2 Bull Market 2
     4.2 Separated by Type of dividend 2
     4.2.1 Cash Only 2
     4.2.2 Stock Only 2
     4.2.3 Balanced Dividends 2
     4.3 Separated by Time 2
     4.3.1 Earlier 2
     4.3.2 In Season 2
     4.3.3 Later 2
     4.4 Separated by Industry 2
     4.4.1 Electronic 2
     4.4.2 Non-electronic 2
     4.5 Separated by Price 2
     4.5.1 High Price 2
     4.5.2 Low Price 2
     4.6 Shareholder Meeting Date as the Event 2
     5. Conclusions and Suggestions 2
     5.1 Conclusions 2
     5.1.1 Market Trend 2
     5.1.2 Type of Dividend 2
     5.1.3 Timing 2
     5.1.4 Industry 2
     5.1.5 Price Level 2
     5.2 Suggestions 2
     Appendix: All Tables 2
     References 2
-
dc.description.tableofcontents Contents 2
     List of Figures 2
     List of Tables 2
     1. Introduction 2
     2. Literature Review 2
     2.1 Theories on Dividend Policy 2
     2.1.1 Information Content Hypothesis 2
     2.1.2 Scale Effect Hypothesis 2
     2.1.3 Wealth Illusion Effect Hypothesis 2
     2.1.4 Dividend Irrelevance Theory 2
     2.1.5 Bird-in-hand Theory 2
     2.1.6 Dividend Clientele Effect 2
     2.2 Foreign Empirical Researches 2
     2.3 Domestic Empirical Researches 2
     3. Event-Study Methodology 2
     3.1 Introduction of Event-Study Methodology 2
     3.2 Steps of event-study methodology 2
     3.3 Model of Expected and Abnormal Returns 2
     3.3.1 Expected Return Model 2
     3.3.2 Models for Estimating Abnormal Return 2
     3.4 The Statistical Test of Event-Study 2
     3.4.1 Test of Average Abnormal Return 2
     3.4.2 Test of Cumulative Abnormal Return 2
     3.4.3 Sign Test 2
     4. Empirical Results 2
     4.1 Separated by Market Trend 2
     4.1.1 Bear Market 2
     4.1.2 Bull Market 2
     4.2 Separated by Type of dividend 2
     4.2.1 Cash Only 2
     4.2.2 Stock Only 2
     4.2.3 Balanced Dividends 2
     4.3 Separated by Time 2
     4.3.1 Earlier 2
     4.3.2 In Season 2
     4.3.3 Later 2
     4.4 Separated by Industry 2
     4.4.1 Electronic 2
     4.4.2 Non-electronic 2
     4.5 Separated by Price 2
     4.5.1 High Price 2
     4.5.2 Low Price 2
     4.6 Shareholder Meeting Date as the Event 2
     5. Conclusions and Suggestions 2
     5.1 Conclusions 2
     5.1.1 Market Trend 2
     5.1.2 Type of Dividend 2
     5.1.3 Timing 2
     5.1.4 Industry 2
     5.1.5 Price Level 2
     5.2 Suggestions 2
     Appendix: All Tables 2
     References 2
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0091933015en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 除權效應zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) event-study methodologyen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) SAR (standardized average residual)en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) AR (average residual)en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CAR (cumulative average residual)en_US
dc.title (題名) 台灣股票市場除權效應之實證研究zh_TW
dc.title (題名) The Empirical Result on Dividend Effect of Taiwan Stock Marketen_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Aharony, J., A. Dotan, 1994.Regular Dividend Announcements and Future Unexpected Earnings: An Empirical Analysis, Financial Review, Vol.29, No.1, 125-151﹒zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Banz, R.W., 1981. The Relationship Between Return and Market Value of Common Stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 9, No. 1, 3-18.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barker, C., 1956. Effective Stock Splits, Harvard Business Review, Vol.34, No.1, 101-106.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Barker, C., 1958. Evaluation of Stock Dividends, Harvard Business Review, Vol.36, No.4, 99-114.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bollerslev, T.,1986. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscesdasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 31, 307-327.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brown, S.J., J.B. Warner, 1980. Measuring Security Price Performance, Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 205-288.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chou, Hsiang-Yun, 1990. On The Abnormal Returns on Ex-date of Stock Dividends on Taiwan Stock Exchange, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Management Science, National Chiao Tung University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chiu, Chen-Hsiang, 1997. The Empirical Study on Systematic Risks and Returns around The Ex-date on Taiwan Stock Exchange, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Finance, Tam-Kang University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chen, Sheng-Chung, 1998. On The Relationship Between the Signal of Announcement of Stock Dividends and Corporate Operational Performance, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Doran, D.T., R. Nachtmann, 1988. The Association of Stock Distribution Annoucements and Earnings Performance. Journal of Accounting Auditing & Finance, Vol. 3, No. 2, 113-132.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Eisenann, E., E.A. Moses, 1978. Stock Dividends: Management`s Clientele Effects. Financial Analyst Journal, Vol. 34, No. 4, 77-80.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Elton, E., M. Gruber. 1970. Marginal Stockholder Tax Rates and the Clientele Effect, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. LII, No.1, 69-74.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Engle, R.F., 1982. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscesdasticity with estimates of the variance of U.K. inflation, Econometrics, 50, 987-1008.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fama, E.F., L. Fisher, M. Jensen and R. Roll, 1969. The Adjustment of Stock Price to New Information, International Economic Review, Vol.10, No.1, 1-21.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Grinblatt, S., W. Masulis, and S. Titman, 1984. The Valuation Effects of Stock Splits and Stock Dividends, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.13, No.4, 461-490.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hsieh, Ting-Chin,1988. The implied information of Block-Trading Stock Dividends on Taiwan Stock Exchange.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ke, Meng-Tsung, 1990. The Empirical Study on The Effects of Announcement of Stock Dividend on Stock Prices, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Management Science, National Chiao Tung University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Leland, M., D. Pyle, 1977. Information Asymmetries Financial Structure and Financial Intermediation. Journal of Finance, December, 371-387.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Linter, J., 1956. The Distribution of Incomes of Corporations among Dividends, Retained Earnings and Taxes, American Economic Review, Vol.XLVI, No.2, 97-113.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, Tsun-Hsiu, 1991. The Ex-dividend and Stock Price Behaviors of Stock Dividends and New Issuance: Theory and Empirical Study, Management Review of National Taiwan University, Book 2, Vol.1.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, Tsun-Hsiu, 1994. Empirical Study on the Hypothesis of Bargaining and After-Tax Excess Returns on the Ex-date, Management Review of National Taiwan University, Book 4, Vol. 2.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Li, Chien-Jan, 1991. On The Relationship Between Stock Dividends and Stock Prices of Listed Companies in Taiwan, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Accounting, National Taiwan University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Miller, M., F., Modigliani, 1961. Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares, Journal of Business, Vol. 34, No.4, 411-433.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Miller, M., K. Rock, 1985. Dividend Policy Under Asymmetric Information, Journal of Finance, 1031-1051.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Myers, S., N. Majluf, 1984.Corporate Financing and Investment Decision When Firms Have Information the Investors Do Not Have. Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 13, No. 2, 24-33.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Paterson, R. M., 1989. Fair Value Accounting Following an Acquisition, Financial Reporting 1987-88 - A Survey of Published Accounts ICAEW.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Pattel, J.M., 1976. Corporate forecasts of earnings per share and stock price behavior: Empirical tests, Journal of Accounting Research, 14, 146-276.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Phillips, A. L., H. K. Baker, and R. B. Edelman, 1997. The Market Reaction to Discontinuing Regular Stock Dividends, Financial Review, Vo1.32, No.4, Nov, 801-819.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Reinganum, M. R., 1981. Misspecification of Capital Asset Pricing: Empirical Anomalies Based on Earnings` Yields and Market Values, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.9, No.1, 19-46.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shen, C.H., C.J., Li, 2000. The Event-Study Methodology-For Empirical Study on Finance and Accounting, Hwa-Tai Publishing.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Shen, C.H., C.J., Li, 2005. User-Guide for Event-Study and β Module, Taiwan Economic Journal.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wang, Chih-Hsin, 1992. Empirical Study on Ex-dividend Stock Price Recovery in Taiwan Stock Exchange, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Management, Soo-Chow University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Wang, Hsueh-Hua, 1994. On The Relationship Between Stock Dividends and Stock Price, Master Thesis of Graduate Institute of Accounting, National Taiwan University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Woolridge, J. R., 1983. Dividend Changes and Security Prices, Journal of Finance, Vol.38, No.5, 1607-1615.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Zibart D.A., 1985. Control of Beta reliability in Studies of Abnormal Return Magnitude: A Methodological Note, Journal of Accounting Research, 920-926.zh_TW