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題名 以資產為基礎的方法對國際風險分散之實證分析
An Empirical Analysis of International Risk Sharing using Asset-based method
作者 劉毓芝
貢獻者 毛維凌
劉毓芝
關鍵詞 國際風險分散
隨機貼現因子
本國偏誤迷思
international risk sharing
stochastic discount factor
home bias puzzle
日期 2006
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 13:27:17 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文研究目的是在探討跨國的投資者在面對國際投資日益開放的同時,是否充分的利用國際上的資產市場以分散投資者所面對的風險。本文參考Brandt, Cochrane, and Santa-Clara(2006),建立一種衡量國際間風險分散程度的風險分散指數,並以台灣為本國基準,取台灣前三大貿易夥伴:美國、日本、中國為外國基準,以分析此四國的國際風險分散指數,衡量的標的為各國資產市場中的主要股票交易市場指數報酬率,以分析各國風險分散的情形。此外我們亦嘗試解釋國際間風險分散的情形並解釋我們所計算出的結果,並進行一些模型參數的演算,以分析在面對其他總體變化時將會遇到的情形。經由本文的實證研究發現,對於台灣而言,在國際間的風險分散程度是偏高的,亦即,面對此四國的資產市場,台灣投資者的投資配置符合風險分散的趨勢,當匯率波動愈小時,國際風險分散程度亦將愈高,大致上與Brandt et al.(2006)之以美國為本國基準所得之國際風險分散程度結果相似。
This thesis tries to discuss if risks are shared internationally by the international asset markets. This study refers to the Brandt, Cochrane, and Santa-Clara (2006) which built an international risk sharing index to measure the degree of international risk sharing. We set up a international risk sharing indices between Taiwan and its important trading partners, US, Japan and China by the asset returns composed by the main stock indices in each country. Furthermore, we try to explain the empirical results and to show how the degree of international risk sharing will different with the changes of the macro-variables. Our empirical analyses find that the degree of the international risk sharing for Taiwan using asset-based method is better than we think. In addition, the empirical results of this thesis are similar to Brandt et al. (2006) that if the volatility of exchange rates declines, the degree of the international risk sharing will be better.
參考文獻 楊志海、陳忠榮(2001),「研究發展、技術引進與專利—一般動差法於可數追蹤資料的應用」,經濟論文叢刊,第29卷,第1期 ,頁69-87。
連春紅、廖四郎、李政峰(2005),「估計與比較連續時間利率模型—臺灣商業本票之實證分析」,管理評論,第24卷,第1期,頁29-53。
David K. Backus, Patrick J. Kehoe, Finn E. Kydland (1992), “International Real Business Cycles”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 100, No. 4., pp. 745-775.
Backus, David K., and Gregor W. Smith (1993), “Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-traded Goods”, Journal of International Economics , 35, pp. 297-316.
Backus, David K, Foresi, S., Telmer, C.I. (2001),” Affine term structure models and the forward premium anomaly”, Journal of Finance , 56, pp. 279-304.
Baxter, M. and U.J. Jermann (1997), “The International Diversification Puzzle is Worse Than You Think” , The American Economic Review, Vol. 87, No.1, pp. 170-180.
Brainard, W. C. and J. Tobin (1992), “On the Internationalization of Portfolios” , Oxford Economic Papers, 44, pp. 533-65.
Brandt, Michael, and Pedro Santa-Clara (2002), “Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rates Dynamics in Incomplete Markets”, Journal of Financial Economics, 63, pp. 161-210.
Campbell, J. Y., and J.H. Cochrane (1999), “By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior”, Journal of Political Economics, 107, pp.205-251.
Christian Julliard (2002), “The International Diversification Puzzle is Not Worse Than You Think”, Princeton University, manuscript.
Cochrane, J. H.( 2001), Asset Pricing, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Cochrane, John H. (2001), “A rehabilitation of stochastic discount factor methodology” , NBER Working paper.
Cooper, I. and Kaplanis, E.(1994),”Home Bias in Equity Portfolio, Inflation Hedging, and International Capital Market Equilibrium”, The Review of Financial Studies,7, pp. 45-60.
Crucini, M.(1999),”On International and National Dimensions of Risk Sharing”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, pp. 73-84.
Eom, Y.H.(1998),”An Efficient GMM Estimation of Continuous-time Asset Dynamics: Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates ”,Working paper, Yonsei University.
Epstein, Larry G., and Stanley E. Zin(1989), “Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework” , Econometrica, 57, pp. 937-969.
Epstein Larray G, Zin Stanley E. (1991), “Substitution, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: An empirical analysis”, Journal of Political Economics, 99(2), pp. 263-286.
Epstein, Larry G. and Duffic, Darrell J. (1992), “Asset pricing with stochastic differential utility”, Review of financial studies, 5(3), pp. 411-436
Feldstein, M. and C. Horioka (1980), "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows", Economic Journal, 90, pp. 314-29.
Fernandes and Vieira Filho ,(in progress),”Revisiting the efficiency of risk sharing between UK and US: Robust estimation and calibration under market incompleteness”.
French K. and J. Poterba (1991), “Investor diversification and international equity markets”, American Economic Review,81, pp. 222-226.
Frankel, Jeffrey A. and Sergio L. Schmukler (2000),” Country Funds and Asymmetric Information”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 5, pp. 177-195.
GRUBEL, H.G. (1968),”Internationally diversified portfolios”, American Economic Review, 58, pp. 1299-14.
Hansen, L.P.(1982),”Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators” , Econometrica, 50, pp.1029-1054.
Hansen, L.P. and Singleton, K.J. (1983),” Stochastic consumption, risk aversion, and temporal behavior of asset returns” , Journal of Political Economy, 91, pp. 249-265.
Ibbotson, R. G. and P. Chen (2003), “Long-Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy” , Financial Analysts Journal, 59(1), pp. 88-98.
Iwata S. and Wu S.(2005),”What Macroeconomic Risks Are (Not) Shared by International Investors?” , Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 37(6), pp. 1121-1141.
Kan,R,. and G. Zhou (1999),”A critique of the stochastic discount factor methodology” , Journal of finance, 54, pp. 1221-1248.
Levy, H and M. Sarnat (1970), ”International diversification of investment portfolios”, American Economic Review, 50, pp. 668-675.
Lewis K. (1996), "What can explain the apparent lack of consumption risk sharing?", Journal of Political Economy ,104, pp. 267-97.
Lewis, K. (1999),“Trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption”, Journal of Economic Literature, 37, pp. 571-608.
Lucas, Robert E, Jr (1978), “Asset prices in an Exchange Economy”, Econometrica, 46, pp. 1429--1445.
Lucas, Robert (1982),” Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, pp. 335-359.
Mehra, R., and E. Prescott (1985), “The Equity Premium: A Puzzle,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 15, pp. 145-161.
W.K.Newey and K.D.West (1987), ”A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix”, Econometric, 55(3), pp. 703-708.
Obstfeld M. and K. Rogoff (1996), ”Foundations of International Macroeconomics”, the MIT press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England.
Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth Rogoff (2000), “The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?”, NBER Working Paper No. 7777.
Smith, Peter and Wickens, Michael (2002), " Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors", Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, 16(3), pp. 397-446.
Stockman, A. C., and H. Dellas (1989), “International Portfolio Diversification and Exchange Rate Variability,” Journal of International Economics, 26, pp. 271–290.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟研究所
93258019
95
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093258019
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 毛維凌zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 劉毓芝zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 劉毓芝zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2006en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 13:27:17 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 13:27:17 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 13:27:17 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093258019en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32227-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93258019zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文研究目的是在探討跨國的投資者在面對國際投資日益開放的同時,是否充分的利用國際上的資產市場以分散投資者所面對的風險。本文參考Brandt, Cochrane, and Santa-Clara(2006),建立一種衡量國際間風險分散程度的風險分散指數,並以台灣為本國基準,取台灣前三大貿易夥伴:美國、日本、中國為外國基準,以分析此四國的國際風險分散指數,衡量的標的為各國資產市場中的主要股票交易市場指數報酬率,以分析各國風險分散的情形。此外我們亦嘗試解釋國際間風險分散的情形並解釋我們所計算出的結果,並進行一些模型參數的演算,以分析在面對其他總體變化時將會遇到的情形。經由本文的實證研究發現,對於台灣而言,在國際間的風險分散程度是偏高的,亦即,面對此四國的資產市場,台灣投資者的投資配置符合風險分散的趨勢,當匯率波動愈小時,國際風險分散程度亦將愈高,大致上與Brandt et al.(2006)之以美國為本國基準所得之國際風險分散程度結果相似。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) This thesis tries to discuss if risks are shared internationally by the international asset markets. This study refers to the Brandt, Cochrane, and Santa-Clara (2006) which built an international risk sharing index to measure the degree of international risk sharing. We set up a international risk sharing indices between Taiwan and its important trading partners, US, Japan and China by the asset returns composed by the main stock indices in each country. Furthermore, we try to explain the empirical results and to show how the degree of international risk sharing will different with the changes of the macro-variables. Our empirical analyses find that the degree of the international risk sharing for Taiwan using asset-based method is better than we think. In addition, the empirical results of this thesis are similar to Brandt et al. (2006) that if the volatility of exchange rates declines, the degree of the international risk sharing will be better.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論.........................................1
      第一節 研究背景及動機............................1
      第二節 研究目的.. .............................5
      第三節 研究架構與流程...........................6
     第二章 文獻回顧.....................................8
      第一節 國際總體金融市場上存在之迷思...............8
      第二節 國際間風險之分散.........................13
      第三節 有關隨機貼現因子與風險分散................18
     第三章 研究方法.....................................20
      第ㄧ節 隨機貼現因子.............................20
      第二節 國際風險分散指數..........................23
     第四章 實證結果與分析.................................27
      第ㄧ節 資料的選取................................27
      第二節 資料分析與估計.............................30
     第五章 結論與建議.....................................36
     參考文獻.............................................38
     附錄一...............................................42
     附錄二...............................................43
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093258019en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 國際風險分散zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 隨機貼現因子zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 本國偏誤迷思zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) international risk sharingen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) stochastic discount factoren_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) home bias puzzleen_US
dc.title (題名) 以資產為基礎的方法對國際風險分散之實證分析zh_TW
dc.title (題名) An Empirical Analysis of International Risk Sharing using Asset-based methoden_US
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 楊志海、陳忠榮(2001),「研究發展、技術引進與專利—一般動差法於可數追蹤資料的應用」,經濟論文叢刊,第29卷,第1期 ,頁69-87。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 連春紅、廖四郎、李政峰(2005),「估計與比較連續時間利率模型—臺灣商業本票之實證分析」,管理評論,第24卷,第1期,頁29-53。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) David K. Backus, Patrick J. Kehoe, Finn E. Kydland (1992), “International Real Business Cycles”, The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 100, No. 4., pp. 745-775.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Backus, David K., and Gregor W. Smith (1993), “Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-traded Goods”, Journal of International Economics , 35, pp. 297-316.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Backus, David K, Foresi, S., Telmer, C.I. (2001),” Affine term structure models and the forward premium anomaly”, Journal of Finance , 56, pp. 279-304.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Baxter, M. and U.J. Jermann (1997), “The International Diversification Puzzle is Worse Than You Think” , The American Economic Review, Vol. 87, No.1, pp. 170-180.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brainard, W. C. and J. Tobin (1992), “On the Internationalization of Portfolios” , Oxford Economic Papers, 44, pp. 533-65.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Brandt, Michael, and Pedro Santa-Clara (2002), “Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rates Dynamics in Incomplete Markets”, Journal of Financial Economics, 63, pp. 161-210.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Campbell, J. Y., and J.H. Cochrane (1999), “By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior”, Journal of Political Economics, 107, pp.205-251.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Christian Julliard (2002), “The International Diversification Puzzle is Not Worse Than You Think”, Princeton University, manuscript.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cochrane, J. H.( 2001), Asset Pricing, Princeton University Press, Princeton.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cochrane, John H. (2001), “A rehabilitation of stochastic discount factor methodology” , NBER Working paper.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Cooper, I. and Kaplanis, E.(1994),”Home Bias in Equity Portfolio, Inflation Hedging, and International Capital Market Equilibrium”, The Review of Financial Studies,7, pp. 45-60.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Crucini, M.(1999),”On International and National Dimensions of Risk Sharing”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, pp. 73-84.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Eom, Y.H.(1998),”An Efficient GMM Estimation of Continuous-time Asset Dynamics: Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates ”,Working paper, Yonsei University.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Epstein, Larry G., and Stanley E. Zin(1989), “Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework” , Econometrica, 57, pp. 937-969.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Epstein Larray G, Zin Stanley E. (1991), “Substitution, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: An empirical analysis”, Journal of Political Economics, 99(2), pp. 263-286.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Epstein, Larry G. and Duffic, Darrell J. (1992), “Asset pricing with stochastic differential utility”, Review of financial studies, 5(3), pp. 411-436zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Feldstein, M. and C. Horioka (1980), "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows", Economic Journal, 90, pp. 314-29.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Fernandes and Vieira Filho ,(in progress),”Revisiting the efficiency of risk sharing between UK and US: Robust estimation and calibration under market incompleteness”.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) French K. and J. Poterba (1991), “Investor diversification and international equity markets”, American Economic Review,81, pp. 222-226.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Frankel, Jeffrey A. and Sergio L. Schmukler (2000),” Country Funds and Asymmetric Information”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 5, pp. 177-195.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) GRUBEL, H.G. (1968),”Internationally diversified portfolios”, American Economic Review, 58, pp. 1299-14.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hansen, L.P.(1982),”Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators” , Econometrica, 50, pp.1029-1054.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hansen, L.P. and Singleton, K.J. (1983),” Stochastic consumption, risk aversion, and temporal behavior of asset returns” , Journal of Political Economy, 91, pp. 249-265.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Ibbotson, R. G. and P. Chen (2003), “Long-Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy” , Financial Analysts Journal, 59(1), pp. 88-98.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Iwata S. and Wu S.(2005),”What Macroeconomic Risks Are (Not) Shared by International Investors?” , Journal of Money Credit and Banking, 37(6), pp. 1121-1141.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Kan,R,. and G. Zhou (1999),”A critique of the stochastic discount factor methodology” , Journal of finance, 54, pp. 1221-1248.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Levy, H and M. Sarnat (1970), ”International diversification of investment portfolios”, American Economic Review, 50, pp. 668-675.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lewis K. (1996), "What can explain the apparent lack of consumption risk sharing?", Journal of Political Economy ,104, pp. 267-97.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lewis, K. (1999),“Trying to explain home bias in equities and consumption”, Journal of Economic Literature, 37, pp. 571-608.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lucas, Robert E, Jr (1978), “Asset prices in an Exchange Economy”, Econometrica, 46, pp. 1429--1445.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lucas, Robert (1982),” Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 10, pp. 335-359.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Mehra, R., and E. Prescott (1985), “The Equity Premium: A Puzzle,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 15, pp. 145-161.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) W.K.Newey and K.D.West (1987), ”A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix”, Econometric, 55(3), pp. 703-708.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Obstfeld M. and K. Rogoff (1996), ”Foundations of International Macroeconomics”, the MIT press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Obstfeld, Maurice, and Kenneth Rogoff (2000), “The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is there a Common Cause?”, NBER Working Paper No. 7777.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Smith, Peter and Wickens, Michael (2002), " Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors", Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, 16(3), pp. 397-446.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Stockman, A. C., and H. Dellas (1989), “International Portfolio Diversification and Exchange Rate Variability,” Journal of International Economics, 26, pp. 271–290.zh_TW