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題名 台灣TFT-LCD產業生產力與效率分析
作者 孫松增
貢獻者 李文福
孫松增
關鍵詞 薄晶電晶體液晶顯示器
資料包絡分析法
Tobit廻歸分析
Malmquist 生產力指數
Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display
Data Envelopment Analysis
Tobit Analysis
Malmquist Index
日期 2003
上傳時間 14-Sep-2009 13:31:50 (UTC+8)
摘要 在台灣,未來很有可能帶領台灣高科技產業向上突破的新英雄---薄晶電晶體液晶顯示器(TFT-LCD),已逐漸為人所重視,近來,TFT-LCD產業的更是利多頻傳,不但在股票成交量創下新高,股價更是一再突破新高。本文則是希望以資料包絡分析法(DEA)來比較分析台灣各家廠商(友達、華映、奇美電、廣輝、彩晶)的相對經營績效,研究範圍從2001年第四季一直到2004年的第一季,所採用的投入變數即為資產總額、營業成本、營業費用和員工人數,產出變數我們則採用營業收入和營業淨利。
      總結來看,廠商在CCR和BCC模式下,雖然在平均排名上,兩個模式並不盡相同,但由時間趨勢來看,五家廠商在趨勢變動上,大致是一樣的;效率值表現較好的時期為2002Q1、和2002Q2和2004Q1,較差的則為2002Q4和2003Q1,推測其原因,一部分當然是和景氣的波動有關,但也和面板的價格波動有一定程度的相關。
      藉由Tobit 迴歸分析,意味著廠商可藉由提高每人配備率、總資產週轉率、流動比率、研發費用率及經營年限等變數,可提昇廠商的整體技術效率,提供了一些政策方向供廠商參考。
      以Malmquist生產力指數來看,總要素生產力的變動(Tfpch)大部分的因素,是來自於生產技術的變動(Tech);彩晶在總要素生產力的變動上,平均有16.8%的成長,是第1名,其他的廠商則呈現不大的差別;但若以時間趨勢來看,2001Q4到2002Q1和2003Q1到2003Q2兩各階段都有滿大的成長,但在2002Q2到2002Q3和2002Q3到2002Q4兩個階段卻呈現衰退的表現。
In Taiwan, TFT-LCD, which is likely to lead high-tech to strive upward in the future, has been receiving more and more attention. Recently, TFT-LCD industry has come into great blossom. Not only does the stock transaction amount achieve a record-breaking peak, but the stock price also makes breakthroughs at all times. This research is to use Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) to compare and analyze the relative operating efficiency of chief leaders in the high-tech industry, including AUO, CPT, CMO, QDI to HannStar. The research ranges from the 4th quarter in 2001 to the 1st quarter in 2004. The researcher adopts input variables, which include total assets, business costs, business expenses and employees, and output variables, business revenues and business net profits, as well.
      On the whole, in spite of CCR and BCC model, the average order is different, but approximately similar. The quarters, which perform well, are the 1st quarter in 2002 and the 1st quarter in 2004; the bad quarters are the 4th quarter in 2002 and the 1st quarter in 2003. To speculate reasons, it has to do with the business cycle and panel board price fluctuation.
      Under the frame, by use of Tobit analysis, factories can strengthen total technology efficiency by raising equipment per employee, total asserts turnover, current ratio, R & D ratio, and the period of operating. It provides these factories a referential direction.
      In conclusion, according to Malmquist index analysis, the Tfpch is the better part from the tech. HannStar, with 16.8% average growth in Tfpch, is the top one. The other factories are nearly close. In the time period, from the 4th quarter in 2001 to the 1st quarter in 2002, and from the 1st quarter in 2003 to the 2nd quarter in 2003, the other factories has a high growth, but from the 2nd quarter in 2002 to the 3rd quarter in 2002 and from the 3rd quarter in 2002 to the 4th quarter in 2002, there is a decline in growth.
參考文獻 一 、中文部分
陳澄隆(2000),《國內定期航運公司營運績效之研究-應用資料包絡分析法》,國立
交通大學運輸研究所碩士論文。
陳錫楨(2003),「產業動向—TFT-LCD業」,《產業經濟》,260,68-73。
陳錫楨(2003),「產業動向—TFT-LCD業」,《產業經濟》,263,66-78。
張嘉麟(2001),《台灣薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器產業核心能力與競爭優勢分析》,國立交通大學科技管理研究所碩士論文。
黃旭男(1993),《資料包絡分析法使用程序之研究及其在非營利組織效率評估上之應用》,交通大學管理科學研究所博士論文。
黃金成(2001),《科學園區資源投入產出效率和產業引進策略之研究-以DEA 和AHP 方法分析》,國立成功大學國際企業研究所碩士論文。
顏旭良(1998),《台灣高科技產業經營效率評估與其資源配置特性之關係研究》,
國立成功大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
鍾欽炎(2001),《我國大型平面顯示器總體環境、產業結構與競爭策略之探討》,國立交通大學管理科學研究所碩士論文。
羅振華、黎漢林(2001),「資料包絡分析法--評估IC產業績效領航指標」,
《管理雜誌》,327,90-102。
二 、英文部分
Banker, R.D., A. Charnes, and W.W. Cooper (1984), “Some Models for Estimating
Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis,” Management
Science, 30, 1078-1092.
Chen, T.Y., and T.L. Yeh (1998), “A Study of Efficiency Evaluation in Taiwan’s Banks,”
International Journal of Service Industry Management, 9(5), 402-415.
Charnes, A., W.W. Cooper, and E. Rhodes (1978), “Measuring the Efficiency of
Decision Making Units,” European Journal of Operational Research, 2, 429-444.
Charnes, A., and W.W. Cooper (1985), “Preface to Topics in Data Envelopment Analysis,” Annals of Operations Research, 2, 59-94.
Cook, W.D., D.A. Johnston, and D. Mccutcheon (1992), “ Implementations of Robotic:
Identifying Efficient Implementers,” Omega, 20(2), 227-239.
Coelli, T., D.S.P. Rao, and G.E. Battese (1998), An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity Analysis, The Netherlands, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Färe, R. , S. Grosskopf, and J. Logan (1985), “The Relative Performance of
Publicly-owned and Privately-owned Electric Utilities,” Journal of Public
Economics, 26, 89-106.
Färe, R. (1988), Fundamentals of Production Theory, Springer-Verlag, New York.
Färe, R., S. Grosskopf, M. Norris, and Z. Zhang (1994), “Productivity Growth, Technical Progress, and Efficiency Changes in Industrialised Countries,”American Economic Review, 84, 66-83.
Farrell, M.J. (1957),“The Measurement of Productive Efficiency,”Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, CXX, Part3, 253-290.
Golany, B., and Y. Roll (1989), “An Application Procedure for DEA,” Omega, 17(3),
237-250.
Register, C.A. (1988), “Technical Efficiency within the US Postal Service and Postal
Reorganization Act of 1970,” Applied Economics, 20, 1185-1197.
Shephard, R. W. (1970), Theory of Cost and Production Functions, Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press.
Smith, P., and D. Mayston (1987), “Measuring Efficiency in the Public Sector,”
Omega, 15(3), 181-189.
Thore, S., F. Phillips, T.W. Ruefli, and P. Yue (1996), “Dea and the Management of the
Product Cycle: the U.S. Computer Industry,” Computers and Operations Research,
23, 341-356.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟研究所
91258019
92
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0912580191
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 李文福zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 孫松增zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 孫松增zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2003en_US
dc.date.accessioned 14-Sep-2009 13:31:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 14-Sep-2009 13:31:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 14-Sep-2009 13:31:50 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0912580191en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/32262-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經濟研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 91258019zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 在台灣,未來很有可能帶領台灣高科技產業向上突破的新英雄---薄晶電晶體液晶顯示器(TFT-LCD),已逐漸為人所重視,近來,TFT-LCD產業的更是利多頻傳,不但在股票成交量創下新高,股價更是一再突破新高。本文則是希望以資料包絡分析法(DEA)來比較分析台灣各家廠商(友達、華映、奇美電、廣輝、彩晶)的相對經營績效,研究範圍從2001年第四季一直到2004年的第一季,所採用的投入變數即為資產總額、營業成本、營業費用和員工人數,產出變數我們則採用營業收入和營業淨利。
      總結來看,廠商在CCR和BCC模式下,雖然在平均排名上,兩個模式並不盡相同,但由時間趨勢來看,五家廠商在趨勢變動上,大致是一樣的;效率值表現較好的時期為2002Q1、和2002Q2和2004Q1,較差的則為2002Q4和2003Q1,推測其原因,一部分當然是和景氣的波動有關,但也和面板的價格波動有一定程度的相關。
      藉由Tobit 迴歸分析,意味著廠商可藉由提高每人配備率、總資產週轉率、流動比率、研發費用率及經營年限等變數,可提昇廠商的整體技術效率,提供了一些政策方向供廠商參考。
      以Malmquist生產力指數來看,總要素生產力的變動(Tfpch)大部分的因素,是來自於生產技術的變動(Tech);彩晶在總要素生產力的變動上,平均有16.8%的成長,是第1名,其他的廠商則呈現不大的差別;但若以時間趨勢來看,2001Q4到2002Q1和2003Q1到2003Q2兩各階段都有滿大的成長,但在2002Q2到2002Q3和2002Q3到2002Q4兩個階段卻呈現衰退的表現。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In Taiwan, TFT-LCD, which is likely to lead high-tech to strive upward in the future, has been receiving more and more attention. Recently, TFT-LCD industry has come into great blossom. Not only does the stock transaction amount achieve a record-breaking peak, but the stock price also makes breakthroughs at all times. This research is to use Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) to compare and analyze the relative operating efficiency of chief leaders in the high-tech industry, including AUO, CPT, CMO, QDI to HannStar. The research ranges from the 4th quarter in 2001 to the 1st quarter in 2004. The researcher adopts input variables, which include total assets, business costs, business expenses and employees, and output variables, business revenues and business net profits, as well.
      On the whole, in spite of CCR and BCC model, the average order is different, but approximately similar. The quarters, which perform well, are the 1st quarter in 2002 and the 1st quarter in 2004; the bad quarters are the 4th quarter in 2002 and the 1st quarter in 2003. To speculate reasons, it has to do with the business cycle and panel board price fluctuation.
      Under the frame, by use of Tobit analysis, factories can strengthen total technology efficiency by raising equipment per employee, total asserts turnover, current ratio, R & D ratio, and the period of operating. It provides these factories a referential direction.
      In conclusion, according to Malmquist index analysis, the Tfpch is the better part from the tech. HannStar, with 16.8% average growth in Tfpch, is the top one. The other factories are nearly close. In the time period, from the 4th quarter in 2001 to the 1st quarter in 2002, and from the 1st quarter in 2003 to the 2nd quarter in 2003, the other factories has a high growth, but from the 2nd quarter in 2002 to the 3rd quarter in 2002 and from the 3rd quarter in 2002 to the 4th quarter in 2002, there is a decline in growth.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論………………… …..………………………………………1
     1.1 研究背景與動機………………………………………………1
     1.2 研究目的………………………………………………………3
     1.3 研究範圍與對象………………………………………………3
     1.4 研究架構………………………………………………………4
     第二章 產業慨況概況與文獻回顧……………………………………5
     2.1 TFT-LCD產業生產製程的簡介………………………………5
     2.2 我國TFT-LCD的產業現況……………………………………7
     2.3 文獻回顧………………………………………………………10
     第三章 研究方法………………………………………………………13
     3.1 效率的定義與衡量……………………………………………13
     3.2 DEA模型理論的介紹...………………………………………17
     3.3 Malmquist生產力指數………………………….….…………24
     第四章 實證結果與分析………………………………………………27
     4.1 投入與產出變數的選取………………………………………27
     4.2 投入與產出變數之相關分析…………………………………30
     4.3 廠商經營效率之分析…………………………………………31
     4.4 被參考次數……………………………………………………37
     4.5 差額變數分析…………………………………………………39
     4.6 Tobit廻歸分析…………………………………..……………42
     4.7 Malmquist生產力指數…………………………..……………44
     第五章 結論與建議……………………………………………………47
     5.1 結論…………………………………………………………...47
     5.2 研究限制………………………………………………………49
     5.3 後續研究的建議……………………………………………....49
     參考文獻…………………………………………………………50
      附錄……………………………………………………………...………52
     
     
     表 目 錄
     
     表2.2-1 我國TFT-LCD產業之SWOT分析…………..………………9
     表 2.3-1 國內DEA相關應用研究整理表………………………………12
     表 4.1-1 投入產出變數的選取…………………………………………28
     表 4.1-2 投入產出變數的基本統計量…………………………………28
     表 4.2-1 相關係數檢定…………………………………………………30
     表 4.3-1 各廠商CCR模式下的效率值…………………………………31
     表 4.3-2 各廠商BCC模式下的效率值…………………………………33
     表 4.3-3 各廠商之規模報酬……………………………………………34
     表 4.3-4 各廠商規模效率值……………………………………………35
     表 4.4-1 CCR模式下之被參考次數…………………………………..37
     表 4.4-2 BCC模式下之被參考次數…………………………………..38
     表 4.5-1 CCR模式下射線性的差額變數佔原始值的百分比………..39
      表 4.5-2 CCR模式下非射線性的差額變數佔原始值的百分比…….40
      表 4.5-3 BCC模式下射線性的差額變數佔原始值的百分比………..40
      表 4.5-4 BCC模式下非射線性的差額變數佔原始值的百分比……41
      表 4.6-1 Tobit 迴歸分析結果…………………..…………….………43
     表 4.7-1 總要素生產力的變動…………………………………..……44
      表 4.7-2 生產效率的變動……………………………………………45
      表 4.7-3 生產技術的變動……………………………………………45
      附表1 本研究所使用變數之原始資料………………………………52
      附表2 Tobit迴歸分析時所使用變數之原始資料…………………54
      附表3 CCR模式下之差額量分析:射線性的差額變數…………….56
      附表4 CCR模式下之差額量分析:非射線性的差額變數………...58
      附表5 BCC模式下之差額量分析:射線性的差額變數…………….60
      附表6 BCC模式下之差額量分析:非射線性的差額變數………….62
      附表7 純技術效率變動………………………………………………..64
      附表8 規模效率變動…………………………………………………64
     
     
     圖 目 錄
     
     圖 2.1-1 TFT-LCD產業結構圖…………………………………………6
      圖 3.1-1 投入導向之技術效率與配置效率……...………………………….16
      圖 3.1-2 產出導向之技術效率與配置效率…………………………………16
     圖 3.2-1 總技術效率、純粹技術效率、規模效率示意圖.......………………….22
      圖 3.3-1 Malmquist生產力指數…………………………...………...26
      圖 4.3-1 各廠商CCR模式下之效率值變動情形………………….......32
     圖 4.3-2 各廠商BCC模式下之效率值變動情形……………………...33
     圖 4.3-3 各廠商規模效率值變動情形…………………………………35
zh_TW
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0912580191en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 薄晶電晶體液晶顯示器zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 資料包絡分析法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tobit廻歸分析zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Malmquist 生產力指數zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Displayen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Data Envelopment Analysisen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Tobit Analysisen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Malmquist Indexen_US
dc.title (題名) 台灣TFT-LCD產業生產力與效率分析zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一 、中文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳澄隆(2000),《國內定期航運公司營運績效之研究-應用資料包絡分析法》,國立zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 交通大學運輸研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳錫楨(2003),「產業動向—TFT-LCD業」,《產業經濟》,260,68-73。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 陳錫楨(2003),「產業動向—TFT-LCD業」,《產業經濟》,263,66-78。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 張嘉麟(2001),《台灣薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器產業核心能力與競爭優勢分析》,國立交通大學科技管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃旭男(1993),《資料包絡分析法使用程序之研究及其在非營利組織效率評估上之應用》,交通大學管理科學研究所博士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 黃金成(2001),《科學園區資源投入產出效率和產業引進策略之研究-以DEA 和AHP 方法分析》,國立成功大學國際企業研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 顏旭良(1998),《台灣高科技產業經營效率評估與其資源配置特性之關係研究》,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 國立成功大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 鍾欽炎(2001),《我國大型平面顯示器總體環境、產業結構與競爭策略之探討》,國立交通大學管理科學研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 羅振華、黎漢林(2001),「資料包絡分析法--評估IC產業績效領航指標」,zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 《管理雜誌》,327,90-102。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 二 、英文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Banker, R.D., A. Charnes, and W.W. Cooper (1984), “Some Models for Estimatingzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis,” Managementzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Science, 30, 1078-1092.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chen, T.Y., and T.L. Yeh (1998), “A Study of Efficiency Evaluation in Taiwan’s Banks,”zh_TW
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