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題名 三要素混合模型探討─雙界二分選擇詢價法之應用
作者 劉韶翔
貢獻者 江振東
劉韶翔
關鍵詞 願付價格
雙界二分選擇法
條件評估法
起價點偏誤
定錨效果
WTP
double-bounded DC
CVM
starting point bias
anchoring effect
日期 2005
上傳時間 17-Sep-2009 18:46:14 (UTC+8)
摘要 由於以往在願付價格的研究中,並未考慮到價格再高都願意支付的受訪者,以及價格再低都不願意支付的受訪者,因此可能會造成估計結果的偏差。本文除了沿用Tsai(2005)所建議採用的三要素混合模型,將受訪者區成價格再高都會願意付的人、願意付合理價格的人以及價格再低都不願意付的人等三類受訪者,且將願意付合理價格者的願付價格透過加速失敗模型(accelerated failure time model,簡稱AFT model)來作評估外,進一步就願意付合理價格的人可能會受到起價點的影響或是有「定錨效果」(anchoring effect)產生的問題來作探討,並就CVDFACTS的高血壓之願付價格資料來作實證分析。結果發現教育程度越高、收入越高以及男性對於能降低罹患心臟血管相關疾病新藥的願付價格也越高。此外我們也發現此筆資料確實有起價點偏誤(starting point bias)的情形。
In the past, studies on willing-to-pay (WTP) usually assume that all the respondents are willing to pay a reasonable price for a non-market good. In reality, some of the respondents might be willing to pay a very high price, while some others unwilling to pay anything. Following Tsai(2005), we adopt a three-component mixture model to take into account these there three types of respondents and modeling those who are willing to pay a reasonable price with an accelerated failure time (AFT) model. In addition, with a slight modification, we also incorporate issues regarding “starting point bias” and “anchoring effect” into the model. An empirical study based on the data collected from “CVDFACTS” shows that males, respondents with higher educational level, and those with higher family income are willing to pay higher prices for a new hypertension treatment. In addition, it is quite likely that “starting point bias” exists in the dataset.
參考文獻 一、 中文部分
吳珮瑛、劉哲良、蘇明達(2005)「受訪金額在開放選擇條件評估支付模式的作用-引導或是誤導」,農業經濟半年期刊,77期:1-43頁。
葉寶文(2002)「風險性之行為決策分析與其願付價值之研究」,東吳大學經濟系博士論文。
二、 英文部分
Alberini, A.,(1995), “Optimal Designs For Discrete Choice Contingent Valuation Surveys:Single-bound, Double-bound, and Bivariate Models”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 68:287-306.
Alberini, A., B.Kanninen, and R.T. Carson, (1997), “Modeling Response Incentive Effects In Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Data”, Land Economics ,73(3):309-325.
Bishop, R. C. and T. A. Heberlein, (1979), “Measuring Values of Extramarket Goods: Are Indirect Measure Biased?”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61:926-930.
Blamey, R.K., J.W. Bennett, and M.D.Morrison, (1999), “Yea-Saying in Contingent
Valuation Surveys”, Land Economics, 75(1):126-141.
Boyle, K. J., R. C. Bishop, and M. P. Welsh, (1985), “Starting Point Bias in Contingent Valuation Bidding Games”, Land Economics, 61(2):188-194.
Chen, C. H., C. F. Horng, and Y. C. Wu, (2004), “A Mixture Regression Model in Event History Analysis with Non-Susceptibility and General Interval Censorship”, unpublished manuscript.
Chien, Y.-L., C.Huang, and D. Shaw, (2005), “A General Model of Starting Point Bias in Double-Bounded Dichotomous Contingent Valuation Surveys”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 50:362-377 .
Farewell, V. T. and Prentice, R. L. (1977) “A Study of Distributional Shape in Life Testing”, Technometrics, 19:69-75.
Hanemann, M., J. Loomis, and B. Kanninen, (1991), “Statistical Efficiency of Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 73:1255-1263.
Herriges, J.A. and J.F. Shogren, (1996), “Starting Point Bias in Dichotomous Choice Valuation with Follow-Up Questioning”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 30(1):112-131.
Klein, J. P. and Moeschberger, M. L. (1997), “ Suvival Analysis: Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data”, New York: Springer.
Lawless, J. F. (2003), “ Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data”, 2nd edition. New Jersey:John Wiley.
Tsai, I.-L. ,(2005), “A Three-component Mixture Model in Willingness-to-pay Analysis for General Interval Censored Data” ,unpublished master’s thesis, National Chengchi University, Taiwan.
Whitehead, J.C., (2002), “Incentive Incompatibility and Starting-Point Bias in Iterative Valuation Questions”, Land Economics, 78(2):285-297.
Yamaguchi, K. (1992),“Accelerated Failure-time Regression Models with a Regression Model of Surviving Fraction,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87:284-292.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
統計研究所
93354007
94
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093354007
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 江振東zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 劉韶翔zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 劉韶翔zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2005en_US
dc.date.accessioned 17-Sep-2009 18:46:14 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 17-Sep-2009 18:46:14 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 17-Sep-2009 18:46:14 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0093354007en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/33903-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 統計研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 93354007zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 94zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 由於以往在願付價格的研究中,並未考慮到價格再高都願意支付的受訪者,以及價格再低都不願意支付的受訪者,因此可能會造成估計結果的偏差。本文除了沿用Tsai(2005)所建議採用的三要素混合模型,將受訪者區成價格再高都會願意付的人、願意付合理價格的人以及價格再低都不願意付的人等三類受訪者,且將願意付合理價格者的願付價格透過加速失敗模型(accelerated failure time model,簡稱AFT model)來作評估外,進一步就願意付合理價格的人可能會受到起價點的影響或是有「定錨效果」(anchoring effect)產生的問題來作探討,並就CVDFACTS的高血壓之願付價格資料來作實證分析。結果發現教育程度越高、收入越高以及男性對於能降低罹患心臟血管相關疾病新藥的願付價格也越高。此外我們也發現此筆資料確實有起價點偏誤(starting point bias)的情形。zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) In the past, studies on willing-to-pay (WTP) usually assume that all the respondents are willing to pay a reasonable price for a non-market good. In reality, some of the respondents might be willing to pay a very high price, while some others unwilling to pay anything. Following Tsai(2005), we adopt a three-component mixture model to take into account these there three types of respondents and modeling those who are willing to pay a reasonable price with an accelerated failure time (AFT) model. In addition, with a slight modification, we also incorporate issues regarding “starting point bias” and “anchoring effect” into the model. An empirical study based on the data collected from “CVDFACTS” shows that males, respondents with higher educational level, and those with higher family income are willing to pay higher prices for a new hypertension treatment. In addition, it is quite likely that “starting point bias” exists in the dataset.en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論

第二章 相關理論與文獻回顧

第三章 理論架構與分析模型
一、三要素混合模型
二、加速失敗模型
三、實證模型

第四章 實證分析
一、資料說明與基本分析
二、實證分析結果
三、平均願付價格與中位數之估計

第五章 結論與討論事項
一、結論
二、討論事項

參考文獻
附錄
附錄一
附錄二
附錄三
附錄四
附錄五
附錄六
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0093354007en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 願付價格zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 雙界二分選擇法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 條件評估法zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 起價點偏誤zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 定錨效果zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) WTPen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) double-bounded DCen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) CVMen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) starting point biasen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) anchoring effecten_US
dc.title (題名) 三要素混合模型探討─雙界二分選擇詢價法之應用zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 一、 中文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 吳珮瑛、劉哲良、蘇明達(2005)「受訪金額在開放選擇條件評估支付模式的作用-引導或是誤導」,農業經濟半年期刊,77期:1-43頁。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 葉寶文(2002)「風險性之行為決策分析與其願付價值之研究」,東吳大學經濟系博士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 二、 英文部分zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alberini, A.,(1995), “Optimal Designs For Discrete Choice Contingent Valuation Surveys:Single-bound, Double-bound, and Bivariate Models”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 68:287-306.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Alberini, A., B.Kanninen, and R.T. Carson, (1997), “Modeling Response Incentive Effects In Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Data”, Land Economics ,73(3):309-325.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Bishop, R. C. and T. A. Heberlein, (1979), “Measuring Values of Extramarket Goods: Are Indirect Measure Biased?”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61:926-930.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Blamey, R.K., J.W. Bennett, and M.D.Morrison, (1999), “Yea-Saying in Contingentzh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Valuation Surveys”, Land Economics, 75(1):126-141.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Boyle, K. J., R. C. Bishop, and M. P. Welsh, (1985), “Starting Point Bias in Contingent Valuation Bidding Games”, Land Economics, 61(2):188-194.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chen, C. H., C. F. Horng, and Y. C. Wu, (2004), “A Mixture Regression Model in Event History Analysis with Non-Susceptibility and General Interval Censorship”, unpublished manuscript.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Chien, Y.-L., C.Huang, and D. Shaw, (2005), “A General Model of Starting Point Bias in Double-Bounded Dichotomous Contingent Valuation Surveys”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 50:362-377 .zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Farewell, V. T. and Prentice, R. L. (1977) “A Study of Distributional Shape in Life Testing”, Technometrics, 19:69-75.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Hanemann, M., J. Loomis, and B. Kanninen, (1991), “Statistical Efficiency of Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 73:1255-1263.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Herriges, J.A. and J.F. Shogren, (1996), “Starting Point Bias in Dichotomous Choice Valuation with Follow-Up Questioning”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 30(1):112-131.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Klein, J. P. and Moeschberger, M. L. (1997), “ Suvival Analysis: Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data”, New York: Springer.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Lawless, J. F. (2003), “ Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data”, 2nd edition. New Jersey:John Wiley.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Tsai, I.-L. ,(2005), “A Three-component Mixture Model in Willingness-to-pay Analysis for General Interval Censored Data” ,unpublished master’s thesis, National Chengchi University, Taiwan.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Whitehead, J.C., (2002), “Incentive Incompatibility and Starting-Point Bias in Iterative Valuation Questions”, Land Economics, 78(2):285-297.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) Yamaguchi, K. (1992),“Accelerated Failure-time Regression Models with a Regression Model of Surviving Fraction,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87:284-292.zh_TW