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題名 “企業市值與銷售額比” 選股策略投資績效之研究 - 以台灣電子業為研究對象
作者 董迺閎
Dung, Nai-Hung
貢獻者 吳啟銘
Wu, Eric
董迺閎
Dung, Nai-Hung
關鍵詞 EV/S
價值選股
潛力股
地雷股
超額報酬率
日期 2008
上傳時間 18-Sep-2009 20:25:30 (UTC+8)
摘要 本研究之主要目的是想了解當台灣之電子公司,在面臨到企業價值與銷售額比(EV/Sales)為近三年最低點時,如果採用EV/Sales 做為選股依據,持有一年或是二年,其超額報酬為何。是否有關鍵因子可以加強選股績效,資料分為樣本內(1995Q1 - 2002Q4) 和樣本外(2003Q1 - 2006Q4)。其實証結論如下:
• 實證上於樣本外公司之中,若使用EV/Sales為選股依據,組成對沖投資組合,持有期間為一年,其平均超額報酬績效為51%。
• 實證上於樣本外公司之中,使用EV/Sales為選股依據組成對沖投資組合,持有期間為二年,其平均超額報酬績效為13%。若用關鍵因子加上EV/Sales為選股依據,持有期間為二年,其平均超額報酬績效大為32%,表示關鍵因子在投資期限較長之交易策略下,確實具有提升EV/Sales之選股能力。
• 本研究透過ANOVA檢定和相關性檢定,找出選股的關鍵因子,為投入資本報酬率,EBITDA利潤率,毛利率,以及營業利潤率。
The purpose of this paper is to study the List high-tech Companies in Taiwan, when their EV/Sales ratio become the lowest in recent 3 years, whether if EV/Sales is a good tool to identify the companies are a super stock or not. Or, we should use other financial ratios as auxiliary tool to enhance the effective of screening tool, increasing the return of investment performance.
The results are summary as below:
• In the out-of-sample companies, if we use the EV/Sales as screening tool, the top 10% to composite as short portfolio, and bottom 10% to composite long portfolio, the holding period is one year; annualized abnormal return is 51%.
• In the out-of-sample companies, if we use the EV/Sales as screening tool, the top 10% to composite as short portfolio, and bottom 10% to composite long portfolio, the holding period is two year, annualized return is 13%. If we add the auxiliary key financial ratios, the annualized abnormal return is 32%.
• We use the ANOVA and correlation analysis, to identify the key financial ratios to enhanced investment return is Gross margin, EBITDA margin, operating margin, and ROIC.
參考文獻 中文部份:
1.杜振華 (2004),「影響股價的關鍵因子分析---以TFT-LCD產業為例」,國立政治大學商學院經營管理碩士學程財務管理組碩士論文。
2.吳啟銘(2002),「企業評價-個案實證分析」,台北:智勝文化事業有限公司。
3.周賢榮 (1993). 「以隨機優勢 理論測試價銷比策略之研究」, 國立台灣科技大學管理技術研究所博士論文。
4.林聖哲 (2001),「產業市價淨值比在台灣股票市場投資績效之研究」國立政治大學財務管理學系碩士論文。
5.陳明霞 (1991),「盈餘成長預估、價格盈餘比率輿投資組合績效-不同投資區間下之實證結果」, 國立中央大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。
6.陳美宏 (2002),「經濟附加價值(EVA®)與企業市場地位關聯性之研究─以資訊電子業為例」, 國立臺灣大學會計學研究所碩士論文。
7.陳巧玲 (2004),「價值型投資風格於台灣股票市場之研究」, 國立政治大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。
8.黃淑娟 (1997),「傳統的與強化的價值導向投資策略在臺灣股票市場之實證研究」, 國立政治大學財務管理學系碩士論文。
9.蔡秀珍 (2003),「產業競爭程度、財務政策與經濟附加價值關係之研究」, 國立中正大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。
10.劉博文 (1996) ,「盈餘品質分析法:臺灣股票市場之驗證」, 國立政治大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。 
11.顏千喬 (2005),「台灣上市電子公司EVA、研發投入與股權結構關聯性之研究」, 長榮大學企業管理學系碩士論文。
英文部份:
1.Al Ehrbar(1998),EVA:The Real Key to Creating Wealth,黃定遠譯(2000),「經濟附加價值EVA入門全書」,台北:商業周刊出版股份有限公司。
2.Arzac, E. R. (2007). Valuation: Mergers, Buyouts and Restructuring, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
3.Barber, B. M. and J. D. Lyon (1996). “Detecting Long-Run Abnormal Stock Returns: The Empirical Power and Specification of Test Statistics”, The Journal of Finance 43: 341-372..
4.Basu, S. (1977). "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.". Journal of Finance 32(3): 663-82.
5.Beneish, M. D. (1999). The Detection of Earnings Manipulation, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business.
6.Braouezec, Y. (2008). Financing Constraint, Over-Investment and Market-to-Book Ratio, SSRN.
7.Chen, L. and X. Zhao (2006). On the Relation Between the Market-to-Book Ratio, Growth Opportunity, and Leverage Ratio, SSRN.
8.Damodaran, A. (1996). Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for determining the value of any asset. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
9.Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (1992). "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns.".The Journal of Finance 47: 557-581.
10.Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (1993). "Common Risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds". Journal of Financial Economics 33:3-56.
11.Fisher, K. L. (1984). Super Stocks: The Book That`s Changing the Way Investors Think. New York: Dow Jones-Irwin.
12.Houston, E. F. B. J. F. (1998). Fundamentals of Financial Management. New York: The Dryden Press.
13.Jensen, M. C., and W.Meckling (1976). "Theory of the firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs, and Ownership Structure.".Journal of Financial Economics (3): 305-360.
14.Keating, J. H. W. B. (2007). Business Forecasting : with Accompanying Excel-Based ForecastX Software. Singapore: Mc Graw Hill.
15.Knight, J. A. (1998). Value Based Management: Developing A Systematic Approach to Creating Shareholder Value. New York: McGraw-Hill.
16.Nissim, D. and S. H. Penman (1999). Ratio Analysis and Equity Valuation, SSRN.
17.Nissim, D. and S. H. Penman (2001). Financial Statement Analysis of Leverage and How It Informs About Profitability and Price-to-Book Ratios, SSRN.
18.Porter, M. E.(1985),「Competitive Advantage」,李明軒、邱如美譯(1999),「競爭優勢」,天下文化。
19.Rappaport, A. (1986). Creating Shareholder Value: The New Standard for Business Performance. New York: The Free Press.
20.Rosenberg, B.; Reid K. and Lanstein (1985).” Persuasive Evidence of Market Inefficiency.”. The Journal of Portfolio Management 11: 9-17.
21.Stern, J. M. a. J. S. S. (2001). The EVA Challenge: implementing value-add change in organization. West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
22.Schilit, H. M. (2002). Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports. New York: McGraw-Hill.
23.Sloan, R. G. (1996). "Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows About Future Earnings?" The Accounting Review 71:289-315.
24.Tom; Murrin, J. K., Tim Copeland (2000). Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies. West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
25.Vruwink, D. R., J. J. Quirin, et al. (2007). "A Modified Price-Sales Ratio: A Useful Tool For Investors?" Journal of Business & Economics Research 5: 31-40.
W. Peavy. Ⅲ, D. A. G. a. J. (1983). "Industry Relative Price-Earning Ratios as Indicators of Investment Return." Financial Analysis Journal (July-August): 60-66.
描述 碩士
國立政治大學
經營管理碩士學程(EMBA)
95932230
97
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095932230
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 吳啟銘zh_TW
dc.contributor.advisor Wu, Ericen_US
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 董迺閎zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) Dung, Nai-Hungen_US
dc.creator (作者) 董迺閎zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) Dung, Nai-Hungen_US
dc.date (日期) 2008en_US
dc.date.accessioned 18-Sep-2009 20:25:30 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 18-Sep-2009 20:25:30 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 18-Sep-2009 20:25:30 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0095932230en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/37000-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 經營管理碩士學程(EMBA)zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 95932230zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 97zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本研究之主要目的是想了解當台灣之電子公司,在面臨到企業價值與銷售額比(EV/Sales)為近三年最低點時,如果採用EV/Sales 做為選股依據,持有一年或是二年,其超額報酬為何。是否有關鍵因子可以加強選股績效,資料分為樣本內(1995Q1 - 2002Q4) 和樣本外(2003Q1 - 2006Q4)。其實証結論如下:
• 實證上於樣本外公司之中,若使用EV/Sales為選股依據,組成對沖投資組合,持有期間為一年,其平均超額報酬績效為51%。
• 實證上於樣本外公司之中,使用EV/Sales為選股依據組成對沖投資組合,持有期間為二年,其平均超額報酬績效為13%。若用關鍵因子加上EV/Sales為選股依據,持有期間為二年,其平均超額報酬績效大為32%,表示關鍵因子在投資期限較長之交易策略下,確實具有提升EV/Sales之選股能力。
• 本研究透過ANOVA檢定和相關性檢定,找出選股的關鍵因子,為投入資本報酬率,EBITDA利潤率,毛利率,以及營業利潤率。
zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) The purpose of this paper is to study the List high-tech Companies in Taiwan, when their EV/Sales ratio become the lowest in recent 3 years, whether if EV/Sales is a good tool to identify the companies are a super stock or not. Or, we should use other financial ratios as auxiliary tool to enhance the effective of screening tool, increasing the return of investment performance.
The results are summary as below:
• In the out-of-sample companies, if we use the EV/Sales as screening tool, the top 10% to composite as short portfolio, and bottom 10% to composite long portfolio, the holding period is one year; annualized abnormal return is 51%.
• In the out-of-sample companies, if we use the EV/Sales as screening tool, the top 10% to composite as short portfolio, and bottom 10% to composite long portfolio, the holding period is two year, annualized return is 13%. If we add the auxiliary key financial ratios, the annualized abnormal return is 32%.
• We use the ANOVA and correlation analysis, to identify the key financial ratios to enhanced investment return is Gross margin, EBITDA margin, operating margin, and ROIC.
en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 謝辭...............................................I
摘要...............................................II
表目錄.............................................V
圖目錄.............................................IX

第一章 緒論.........................................1
1.1 研究動機與目的..................................1
1.2 研究範圍與流程..................................3

第二章 研究文獻研討
2.1 價值選股之文獻與實證研究.........................6
2.2 影響企業價值關鍵因子之研究.......................8
2.3 盈餘品質之研究.................................14
2.4 結論..........................................16

第三章 研究方法
3.1 研究假設......................................17
3.2 資料來源, 研究期間,研究對象以及樣本選取標準......17
3.3 資料處理......................................18

第四章 實證結果分析
4.1 假設一實證結果分析.............................24
4.2 假設二之關鍵因子檢定其實證結果分析輿討論..........25
4.3 迴歸式之設計分析與討論..........................49
4.4 迴溯測試......................................52
4.5 結論..........................................59

第五章 結論與建議
5.1 實証結論......................................61
5.2 對後續研究之建議...............................62
5.3 研究之限制....................................63

參考文獻..........................................64
zh_TW
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dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0095932230en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) EV/Szh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 價值選股zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 潛力股zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 地雷股zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 超額報酬率zh_TW
dc.title (題名) “企業市值與銷售額比” 選股策略投資績效之研究 - 以台灣電子業為研究對象zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 中文部份:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1.杜振華 (2004),「影響股價的關鍵因子分析---以TFT-LCD產業為例」,國立政治大學商學院經營管理碩士學程財務管理組碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2.吳啟銘(2002),「企業評價-個案實證分析」,台北:智勝文化事業有限公司。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3.周賢榮 (1993). 「以隨機優勢 理論測試價銷比策略之研究」, 國立台灣科技大學管理技術研究所博士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4.林聖哲 (2001),「產業市價淨值比在台灣股票市場投資績效之研究」國立政治大學財務管理學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5.陳明霞 (1991),「盈餘成長預估、價格盈餘比率輿投資組合績效-不同投資區間下之實證結果」, 國立中央大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6.陳美宏 (2002),「經濟附加價值(EVA®)與企業市場地位關聯性之研究─以資訊電子業為例」, 國立臺灣大學會計學研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7.陳巧玲 (2004),「價值型投資風格於台灣股票市場之研究」, 國立政治大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8.黃淑娟 (1997),「傳統的與強化的價值導向投資策略在臺灣股票市場之實證研究」, 國立政治大學財務管理學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9.蔡秀珍 (2003),「產業競爭程度、財務政策與經濟附加價值關係之研究」, 國立中正大學企業管理研究所碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10.劉博文 (1996) ,「盈餘品質分析法:臺灣股票市場之驗證」, 國立政治大學財務管理研究所碩士論文。 zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11.顏千喬 (2005),「台灣上市電子公司EVA、研發投入與股權結構關聯性之研究」, 長榮大學企業管理學系碩士論文。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 英文部份:zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 1.Al Ehrbar(1998),EVA:The Real Key to Creating Wealth,黃定遠譯(2000),「經濟附加價值EVA入門全書」,台北:商業周刊出版股份有限公司。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 2.Arzac, E. R. (2007). Valuation: Mergers, Buyouts and Restructuring, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 3.Barber, B. M. and J. D. Lyon (1996). “Detecting Long-Run Abnormal Stock Returns: The Empirical Power and Specification of Test Statistics”, The Journal of Finance 43: 341-372..zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 4.Basu, S. (1977). "Investment Performance of Common Stocks in Relation to Their Price-Earnings Ratios: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.". Journal of Finance 32(3): 663-82.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 5.Beneish, M. D. (1999). The Detection of Earnings Manipulation, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 6.Braouezec, Y. (2008). Financing Constraint, Over-Investment and Market-to-Book Ratio, SSRN.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 7.Chen, L. and X. Zhao (2006). On the Relation Between the Market-to-Book Ratio, Growth Opportunity, and Leverage Ratio, SSRN.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 8.Damodaran, A. (1996). Investment Valuation: Tools and Techniques for determining the value of any asset. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 9.Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (1992). "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns.".The Journal of Finance 47: 557-581.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 10.Fama, E. F. and K. R. French (1993). "Common Risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds". Journal of Financial Economics 33:3-56.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 11.Fisher, K. L. (1984). Super Stocks: The Book That`s Changing the Way Investors Think. New York: Dow Jones-Irwin.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 12.Houston, E. F. B. J. F. (1998). Fundamentals of Financial Management. New York: The Dryden Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 13.Jensen, M. C., and W.Meckling (1976). "Theory of the firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs, and Ownership Structure.".Journal of Financial Economics (3): 305-360.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 14.Keating, J. H. W. B. (2007). Business Forecasting : with Accompanying Excel-Based ForecastX Software. Singapore: Mc Graw Hill.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 15.Knight, J. A. (1998). Value Based Management: Developing A Systematic Approach to Creating Shareholder Value. New York: McGraw-Hill.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 16.Nissim, D. and S. H. Penman (1999). Ratio Analysis and Equity Valuation, SSRN.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 17.Nissim, D. and S. H. Penman (2001). Financial Statement Analysis of Leverage and How It Informs About Profitability and Price-to-Book Ratios, SSRN.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 18.Porter, M. E.(1985),「Competitive Advantage」,李明軒、邱如美譯(1999),「競爭優勢」,天下文化。zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 19.Rappaport, A. (1986). Creating Shareholder Value: The New Standard for Business Performance. New York: The Free Press.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 20.Rosenberg, B.; Reid K. and Lanstein (1985).” Persuasive Evidence of Market Inefficiency.”. The Journal of Portfolio Management 11: 9-17.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 21.Stern, J. M. a. J. S. S. (2001). The EVA Challenge: implementing value-add change in organization. West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 22.Schilit, H. M. (2002). Financial Shenanigans: How to Detect Accounting Gimmicks & Fraud in Financial Reports. New York: McGraw-Hill.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 23.Sloan, R. G. (1996). "Do Stock Prices Fully Reflect Information in Accruals and Cash Flows About Future Earnings?" The Accounting Review 71:289-315.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 24.Tom; Murrin, J. K., Tim Copeland (2000). Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies. West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Inc.zh_TW
dc.relation.reference (參考文獻) 25.Vruwink, D. R., J. J. Quirin, et al. (2007). "A Modified Price-Sales Ratio: A Useful Tool For Investors?" Journal of Business & Economics Research 5: 31-40.zh_TW
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