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題名 經濟因素對民主政治之影響：量化與質化研究的結合
作者 李欣儒
貢獻者 郭承天
李欣儒
關鍵詞 現代化理論
民主化
土耳其
Modernization Theory
Democratization
Turkey
日期 2003
上傳時間 19-Sep-2009 15:31:41 (UTC+8)
摘要 本文依據現代化理論之脈絡，探究總體經濟因素對於民主政治究竟存在何種影響，在方法論上則採取量化與質化的結合，以求各自擷長補短。
為探究經濟因素究竟是影響民主政體的「建立」、已建立民主政體的「存續」、亦或民主程度的「提昇」。本文首先將各國依其民主化時程及宗教文化的不同，區分為第二波民主化國家、第三波民主化國家及伊斯蘭國家，據此建立三個次模型及一個總體模型，並利用總體經濟資料進行量化分析。研究結果發現，經濟因素對於民主政體的「建立」與否並無影響，但良好的經濟表現則有助於已建立之民主政體的「存續」及民主程度的「提昇」；亦即現代化理論的外生說獲得支持。
為彌補量化研究之不足，本文並進一步以土耳其進行個案分析。個案分析的結果顯示，儘管影響土耳其民主政治發展的因素包含宗教勢力興起、經濟危機及軍方干政，但最根本的因素仍是經濟危機；在經濟危機之下，不論軍方或民間社會皆感受到壓力，民間轉向伊斯蘭教尋求安慰，軍方則藉安定社會與對抗宗教勢力等名義，發動政變而中止民主政治。
Rested on the theories of modernization, this thesis inquired into how the macroeconomic performance influences the political development of democracy. The quantification and qualification approaches are adopted in the methodology for a complete perspective.
In order to explore whether the economic performance influences the establishment of democratic regime, the sustenance of established democratic regime, and the elevation of democratic level, this thesis classifies the countries as the democratic countries in the second wave of democratization, the democratic countries in the third wave of democratization and Islamic countries according to the agenda of democratization and religious culture difference. Based upon the three categories, the author builds up three secondary models and one general model and puts the macroeconomic materials in the quantitative analysis. The findings discover that the economic performance has nothing to do with the establishment of democratic regime. However, the well-performed economy does help consolidate the established democratic regime and elevate the democratic level as well. The conclusion implies that the exogenous theory of Modernization theory is substantiated.
In order to make up the insufficiency of the quantification research, the author takes Turkey for case study. The results reveal that the factors influencing the political development of democracy in Turkey include the rise of religious power, the economic crisis and the military intervention. Among the factors, the most crucial one is the economic crisis. Under the threat of economic crisis, the society turned to Islamism for consolation. Nevertheless, in the name of stable society and resistance to religious power, the military launched coup d`etat to interrupt the democracy.
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繁體中文部分
Almond, Gabriel A., & Sidney Verba，民國85年。
《公民文化》。張明澍譯。台北：五南出版社。
Dahl, Robert A., 民國78年。
《多元政治：參與和反對》。張明貴譯。台北：唐山出版社。
Huntington, Samuel P.，民國83年。
《文明衝突與世界秩序的重建》。黃裕美譯。台北：聯經出版社。
Huntington, Samuel P.，民國86年。
《第三波》。劉軍寧譯。台北：五南出版社。
Lipset, Seymour M.，民國71年。
《政治人》。張明賢譯。台北：桂冠出版社。
Moore, Barrington，民國80年。
《民主與獨裁的社會起源：現代世界誕生時的貴族與農民》。拓夫譯。台北：桂冠出版社。
Sen, Amartya，民國90年。
《經濟發展與自由》。劉楚俊譯，台北：先覺出版社。
郭承天，民國86年。
《東亞民主化與經濟發展：政治經濟策略結構理論》。行政院國家科學委員會專題計畫，計畫編號：NSC86-2414-H004-017。
黃旻華，民國91年。
「伊斯蘭教真的被『妖魔化』了嗎？－一個整合既有經驗發現的論點」，《問題與研究》，41(4): 21-46。台北：國立政治大學國際關係研究中心。
吳興東編著，2003。
《土耳其史：歐亞十字路口上的國家》。台北：三民書局。
Ayubi, Nazih N., 2003。
「伊斯蘭教與民主」，收錄於D. Potter, D. Goldblatt, M. Kiloh & P. Lewis主編，王謙、李昌麟、林賢治、黃惟饒譯，《最新民主化的歷程》。台北：韋伯文化。
Bromley, Simon, 2003。
「中東特例：迷思或事實？」，收錄於Potter, D., D. Goldblatt, M. Kiloh & P. Lewis主編，王謙、李昌麟、林賢治、黃惟饒譯，《最新民主化的歷程》。台北：韋伯文化。
簡體中文部分
陳嘉厚，1989。
《現代伊斯蘭主義》。北京：經濟日報出版社。
彭樹智，1992。
《二十世紀中東史》。北京：高等教育出版社。
朱張碧珠，1996。
《埃及穆斯林（回教徒）兄弟會之研究》。北京：三民書局。
楊灝城、朱克柔主編，2000。
《當代中東熱點問題的歷史探索：宗教與世俗》。北京：人民出版社。
孫振玉，2001。
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描述 碩士
國立政治大學
政治研究所
89252004
92
資料來源 http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0892520041
資料類型 thesis
dc.contributor.advisor 郭承天zh_TW
dc.contributor.author (Authors) 李欣儒zh_TW
dc.creator (作者) 李欣儒zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2003en_US
dc.date.accessioned 19-Sep-2009 15:31:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 19-Sep-2009 15:31:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 19-Sep-2009 15:31:41 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) G0892520041en_US
dc.identifier.uri (URI) https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/34510-
dc.description (描述) 碩士zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 國立政治大學zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 政治研究所zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 89252004zh_TW
dc.description (描述) 92zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) 本文依據現代化理論之脈絡，探究總體經濟因素對於民主政治究竟存在何種影響，在方法論上則採取量化與質化的結合，以求各自擷長補短。
為探究經濟因素究竟是影響民主政體的「建立」、已建立民主政體的「存續」、亦或民主程度的「提昇」。本文首先將各國依其民主化時程及宗教文化的不同，區分為第二波民主化國家、第三波民主化國家及伊斯蘭國家，據此建立三個次模型及一個總體模型，並利用總體經濟資料進行量化分析。研究結果發現，經濟因素對於民主政體的「建立」與否並無影響，但良好的經濟表現則有助於已建立之民主政體的「存續」及民主程度的「提昇」；亦即現代化理論的外生說獲得支持。
為彌補量化研究之不足，本文並進一步以土耳其進行個案分析。個案分析的結果顯示，儘管影響土耳其民主政治發展的因素包含宗教勢力興起、經濟危機及軍方干政，但最根本的因素仍是經濟危機；在經濟危機之下，不論軍方或民間社會皆感受到壓力，民間轉向伊斯蘭教尋求安慰，軍方則藉安定社會與對抗宗教勢力等名義，發動政變而中止民主政治。		zh_TW
dc.description.abstract (摘要) Rested on the theories of modernization, this thesis inquired into how the macroeconomic performance influences the political development of democracy. The quantification and qualification approaches are adopted in the methodology for a complete perspective.
In order to explore whether the economic performance influences the establishment of democratic regime, the sustenance of established democratic regime, and the elevation of democratic level, this thesis classifies the countries as the democratic countries in the second wave of democratization, the democratic countries in the third wave of democratization and Islamic countries according to the agenda of democratization and religious culture difference. Based upon the three categories, the author builds up three secondary models and one general model and puts the macroeconomic materials in the quantitative analysis. The findings discover that the economic performance has nothing to do with the establishment of democratic regime. However, the well-performed economy does help consolidate the established democratic regime and elevate the democratic level as well. The conclusion implies that the exogenous theory of Modernization theory is substantiated.
In order to make up the insufficiency of the quantification research, the author takes Turkey for case study. The results reveal that the factors influencing the political development of democracy in Turkey include the rise of religious power, the economic crisis and the military intervention. Among the factors, the most crucial one is the economic crisis. Under the threat of economic crisis, the society turned to Islamism for consolation. Nevertheless, in the name of stable society and resistance to religious power, the military launched coup d`etat to interrupt the democracy.		en_US
dc.description.tableofcontents 第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機與目的……………………………………………1
第二節 章節安排……………………………………………………4
第二章 文獻檢閱
第一節 現代化理論的意涵…………………………………………5
第二節 影響民主之經濟因素…………………………………..…15
第三節 影響民主之非經濟因素….……………………………….19
第四節 小結………………………………………………………..23
第三章 研究設計
第一節 研究架構…………………………………………………..24
第二節 量化研究假設……………………………………………..28
第三節 研究變數簡介……………………………………………..34
第四節 個案之選擇………………………………………………..41
第四章 研究結果
第一節 經濟因素對民主政體建立之影響………………………..43
第二節 經濟因素對已建立民主政體存續之影響………………..50
第三節 經濟因素對民主程度提升之影響………………………..58
第四節 經濟因素對伊斯蘭國家民主政治之影響………………..66
第五節 小結………………………………………………………..76
第五章 個案分析
第一節 民主與伊斯蘭國家………………………………………..78
第二節 土耳其政經發展簡史（1920-2000）…………………….87
第三節 經濟危機與軍方干政……………………………………..98
第四節 經濟危機與政治伊斯蘭運動……………………………103
第五節 小結………………………………………………………111
第六章 結論與建議
第一節 結果摘要及討論…………………………………………113
第二節 研究限制及建議…………………………………………116
參考書目…...……………………………...…………………………118
附錄
附錄一 各國民主政體建立與崩潰時間…………………………130
附錄二 土耳其重要政黨名稱及其特性…………………………133
附錄三 土耳其歷任總統及總理名錄……………………………134		zh_TW
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dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.source.uri (資料來源) http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0892520041en_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 現代化理論zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 民主化zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) 土耳其zh_TW
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Modernization Theoryen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Democratizationen_US
dc.subject (關鍵詞) Turkeyen_US
dc.title (題名) 經濟因素對民主政治之影響：量化與質化研究的結合zh_TW
dc.type (資料類型) thesisen
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