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題名 Housing Price Mortgage Payment and Saving Behavior in Taiwan
作者 林祖嘉
貢獻者 政大經濟系
關鍵詞 housing price;forced savings;error correction model (ECM)
日期 2003
上傳時間 26-Oct-2010 16:56:22 (UTC+8)
摘要 After reaching its peak at the year of 1987, the saving rate of Taiwan dropped quickly in the late 1980’s. At the same time, the real average housing prices in Taiwan had increased almost three times from 1987 to 1990. Why did the saving rated in Taiwan drop so quickly after 1987? Does it relate to the dramatic increase in housing prices? Though it has been confirmed that there is a negative wealth effect of housing price appreciation on savings, the estimated wealth effect on savings could be biased if the effect of mortgage payment (also known as forced savings) on saving is neglected. Applying quarterly data from 1981 to 2000
     in Taiwan, we employ a time series analysis to compare two saving models, the traditional one and the one with forced saving. Our major findings include: First, as we expected, the negative wealth effect of housing price appreciation on saving is smaller in the forced saving model than in the traditional saving model. Secondly, by the estimated ECMs, ignoring the impact of housing price appreciation on forced saving, the speed of short-run adjustment in total saving would be significantly slower. Third, for forecasting purpose, the forecast errors in
     ECM of the forced saving model are smaller than that in the total savings model.
關聯 Asian Economic Journal, 17(4), 407-425
資料類型 article
DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8381.2003.00193.x
dc.contributor 政大經濟系-
dc.creator (作者) 林祖嘉zh_TW
dc.date (日期) 2003-
dc.date.accessioned 26-Oct-2010 16:56:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.available 26-Oct-2010 16:56:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.date.issued (上傳時間) 26-Oct-2010 16:56:22 (UTC+8)-
dc.identifier.uri (URI) http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/47691-
dc.description.abstract (摘要) After reaching its peak at the year of 1987, the saving rate of Taiwan dropped quickly in the late 1980’s. At the same time, the real average housing prices in Taiwan had increased almost three times from 1987 to 1990. Why did the saving rated in Taiwan drop so quickly after 1987? Does it relate to the dramatic increase in housing prices? Though it has been confirmed that there is a negative wealth effect of housing price appreciation on savings, the estimated wealth effect on savings could be biased if the effect of mortgage payment (also known as forced savings) on saving is neglected. Applying quarterly data from 1981 to 2000
     in Taiwan, we employ a time series analysis to compare two saving models, the traditional one and the one with forced saving. Our major findings include: First, as we expected, the negative wealth effect of housing price appreciation on saving is smaller in the forced saving model than in the traditional saving model. Secondly, by the estimated ECMs, ignoring the impact of housing price appreciation on forced saving, the speed of short-run adjustment in total saving would be significantly slower. Third, for forecasting purpose, the forecast errors in
     ECM of the forced saving model are smaller than that in the total savings model.		-
dc.language enen
dc.language.iso en_US-
dc.relation (關聯) Asian Economic Journal, 17(4), 407-425en
dc.subject (關鍵詞) housing price;forced savings;error correction model (ECM)-
dc.title (題名) Housing Price Mortgage Payment and Saving Behavior in Taiwanen
dc.type (資料類型) articleen
dc.identifier.doi (DOI) 10.1111/j.1467-8381.2003.00193.xen_US
dc.doi.uri (DOI) http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8381.2003.00193.xen_US