| dc.contributor.advisor | 江振東 | zh_TW |
| dc.contributor.author (Authors) | 王文華 | zh_TW |
| dc.creator (作者) | 王文華 | zh_TW |
| dc.date (日期) | 2008 | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 8-Dec-2010 14:48:46 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.available | 8-Dec-2010 14:48:46 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.date.issued (上傳時間) | 8-Dec-2010 14:48:46 (UTC+8) | - |
| dc.identifier (Other Identifiers) | G0096354001 | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri (URI) | http://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/49596 | - |
| dc.description (描述) | 碩士 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 國立政治大學 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 統計研究所 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 96354001 | zh_TW |
| dc.description (描述) | 97 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | 世界衛生組織表示「先前有過自殺行為的人，再度自殺的機率比一般人高」，因此如何針對自殺企圖者提供即時的關懷與介入服務，是世界各國重要的自殺防治策略之一。本研究希望針對曾有過自殺企圖的個案，經由統計模型的配適來找出自殺企圖個案的「自殺危險因子」，區別出再度自殺的高危險個案，以方便將人力及醫療資源投入到最需要被協助的個案上。 本研究的反應變項為「重複自殺企圖次數」，但是由於資料中「零值」的人數相當多，此外也呈現出變異數大於平均數的現象，因此我們採用可以同時處理Zero-inflated及Over-dispersion情況的廣義Zero-inflated卜瓦松迴歸模型 (Generalized Zero-inflated Poisson Regression Model)來進行資料的配適。我們得知重複自殺企圖之高風險因子有「65歲以上」、「曾患有精神疾病」、「不確定是否曾患有精神疾病」及「離婚」之個案，而「治癒」可能性較高的因子為「45~64歲」、「因情感因素自殺」、「已婚」之個案。藉由模型也可以進一步估計自殺企圖個案之再企圖機率，並且對自殺企圖個案進行分層，以進行不同程度的關懷與訪視，藉以提昇關懷的即時性及有效性。 | zh_TW |
| dc.description.abstract (摘要) | World Health Organization (WHO) has indicated that suicide attempt rate is much higher among those who have ever had suicide attempts. Hence, how to express concerns and provide timely consultations for suicide reattempters has become one of the key issues in suicide prevention. In this study, we try to identify the risk factors associated with suicide reattempters, and predict high-risk cases so that the limited resources can be distributed effectively. The primary variable of interest is the number of repeated suicide attempt for a suicide attempter after his/her index attempt. However, there are more zeros and greater variability in the data than that would be predicted by a Poisson model. We hence fit the data using a zero-inflated generalized Poisson regression model, a model that is frequently used for modeling over-dispersed count data with too many zeros. We find that the risk factors for repeated suicide attempts are those who are 65 or older, those who are classified as psychiatric disorders and those diagnostically uncertain cases, and those who are divorced. We also find that non-repeaters are more likely among those who are between 45 to 65 of age, married, and having a suicide attempt history due to an emotional reason. Through the use of the model, we can also estimate a subject’s reattempt probability, classify them, and provide them with suitable care and attention accordingly. | en_US |
| dc.description.tableofcontents | 第一章 緒論 1第一節 研究背景與動機 1第二節 名詞定義 4第三節 問題定義 5第四節 研究目的 6第五節 論文結構 7第二章 理論架構與分析模型 8第一節 基準分配 82.1.1 卜瓦松分配 82.1.2 廣義卜瓦松分配 9第二節 Zero-inflated分配 112.2.1 Zero-Inflated 卜瓦松分配 122.2.2 Zero-inflated 廣義卜瓦松分配 14第三節 迴歸模型介紹 152.3.1 卜瓦松迴歸模型 162.3.2 廣義卜瓦松迴歸模型 162.3.3 Zero-inflated卜瓦松迴歸模型 172.3.4 Zero-inflated廣義卜瓦松迴歸模型 18第四節 迴歸模型在自殺防治上的應用 19第三章 資料來源與模型架構 21第一節 資料來源 213.1.1 資料介紹 213.1.2 通報關懷系統與相關系統之串連 21第二節 資料基本分析 223.2.1 資料整理狀況 223.2.2 變項定義及說明 23第三節 模型配適架構 263.3.1 資料說明與分析假設 263.3.2 模型配適之反應變項說明 263.3.3 模型配適之解釋變項說明 283.3.4 模型配適說明 29第四節 模型比較方法介紹 303.4.1 比較步驟 303.4.2 Goodness-of-fit準則及檢定方法選擇 30第四章 資料分析結果與討論 32第一節 迴歸模型配適結果 324.1.1 Zero-inflated廣義卜瓦松迴歸模型分析結果 324.1.2 卜瓦松迴歸模型分析結果 364.1.3 廣義卜瓦松迴歸模型分析結果 374.1.4 Zero-inflated卜瓦松迴歸模型分析結果 394.1.5 模型配適小結 41第二節 概似比檢定之結果 42第五章 研究結論與建議 43第一節 研究結論 43第二節 研究限制 43第三節 未來研究方向 44參考文獻 47中文部分 47英文部分 47附錄 49附錄A 不同參數值下之機率密度函數圖形 49附錄A-1 卜瓦松分配機率密度函數圖形 49附錄A-2 廣義卜瓦松分配機率密度函數圖形 50附錄A-3 Zero-Inflated卜瓦松分配機率密度函數圖形 51附錄A-4 Zero-Inflated廣義卜瓦松分配機率密度函數圖形 52附錄B 分配之期望值及變異數公式推導 54附錄B-1 廣義卜瓦松分配之期望值及變異數推導 54附錄B-2 Zero-Inflated 卜瓦松分配期望值及變異數推導 56附錄B-3 Zero-Inflated 廣義卜瓦松分配期望值及變異數推導 57附錄C 配適迴歸模型所使用之R程式碼 59附錄C-1 配適卜瓦松迴歸模型之程式碼 59附錄C-2 配適廣義卜瓦松迴歸模型之程式碼 59附錄C-3 配適Zero-inflated卜瓦松迴歸模型之程式碼 59附錄C-4 配適Zero-inflated廣義卜瓦松迴歸模型之程式碼 59附錄D 未來研究方向之初步分析結果 61附錄D-1 「首次自殺企圖即死亡」個案之敘述性統計分析 61附錄D-2 「接受訪視」個案之ZIGP模型配適 67 | zh_TW |
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| dc.language.iso | en_US | - |
| dc.source.uri (資料來源) | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096354001 | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 自殺企圖 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 自殺率 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 卜瓦松分配 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | 廣義卜瓦松分配 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Zero-inflated分配 | zh_TW |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Suicide attempt | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Suicide rate | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Poisson distribution | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Generalized Poisson distribution | en_US |
| dc.subject (關鍵詞) | Zero-inflated distribution | en_US |
| dc.title (題名) | 台灣地區自殺企圖者之重複自殺企圖次數統計模型探討 | zh_TW |
| dc.type (資料類型) | thesis | en |
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